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Strong Dollar Puts Bitcoin at Risk: 5 Things to Watch This Week The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a potentially volatile week as the US dollar reaches its highest point since the 2022 bear market. This surge in the dollar's strength has historically presented challenges for Bitcoin, and traders are closely monitoring several key factors that could influence BTC's price in the coming days. 1. The Dollar's Dominance The US dollar's resurgence is a critical factor for Bitcoin traders to consider. A strong dollar often exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.2 This inverse relationship stems from Bitcoin's pricing in US dollars; when the dollar is strong, it takes fewer dollars to buy the same amount of Bitcoin, thus lowering the price. 2. Bitcoin's Price Risks Bitcoin's price has struggled to break free from the shackles of the bear market, and the strengthening dollar adds another layer of complexity. Traders are wary of potential downside risks, especially if the dollar continues its upward trajectory. The psychological barrier of $100k remains a key level to watch; a break below this could trigger further sell-offs. 3. Correlation with Traditional Markets Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets, particularly the S&P 500, has been a recurring theme. As the dollar strengthens, it can also impact traditional markets, leading to a risk-off sentiment. This could further weigh on Bitcoin's price, as investors may seek safer assets like cash or bonds. 4. On-Chain Metrics While on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into Bitcoin's network activity, they may not offer immediate relief from the dollar's influence. Metrics such as exchange reserves, miner activity, and long-term holder behavior can indicate underlying strength or weakness in the Bitcoin market.3 However, these factors may take time to play out and may not immediately counteract the effects of a strong dollar. Conclusion The confluence of a strengthening US dollar and Bitcoin's existing price risks creates a challenging environment for traders. While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, the short-term picture is clouded by uncertainty. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor the factors outlined above to navigate the potential volatility in the Bitcoin market this week.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
EUR/USD Analysis: A Deep Dive into Key Triggers🧵 EUR/USD has been in a prolonged downtrend, recently gaining even more bearish momentum due to the strength of the DXY. I’m Skeptic , and in today’s analysis, we’ll break down potential long and short triggers for this pair. Let’s explore opportunities across multiple timeframes. 📉 Daily Timeframe: Identifying Key Levels On the daily chart, the primary trend remains bearish within a descending channel. Key Support Zone: 1.01270 to 1.00423 This zone aligns with the midline of the channel, Fibonacci retracements, and horizontal support levels. If you’re holding short positions, this area is ideal for profit-taking. 📍 4-Hour Timeframe: Triggers and Precision Moving to the 4-hour chart, we pinpoint actionable setups: After breaking below the 1.02527 support level and consolidating, EUR/USD has reached the 1.02084 support zone. For Breakout Traders: A break and close below 1.02084 could signal further bearish momentum. I personally lean toward this approach and will monitor the break closely. For Reaction Traders: Waiting for a pullback or bounce near the daily support zone (1.01270-1.00423) might offer better long opportunities with tighter stop-loss levels. 📈 DXY Analysis: Driving Market Sentiment The DXY (US Dollar Index) continues its strong bullish trend, and its performance heavily influences EUR/USD: A sustained break above 109.449 could pave the way for further upside toward 113.219. With its current bullish momentum, this move could pressure assets like Bitcoin, which may test critical support levels at 85 or even 80-82. Key Takeaways: EUR/USD: Watch for a break below 1.02084 for short entries. React near 1.01270-1.00423 for potential long setups. DXY: A continuation above 109.449 strengthens bearish pressure on EUR/USD. Conclusion & Final Thoughts Navigating the EUR/USD market requires a blend of technical precision and patience. While short-term triggers offer immediate opportunities, always align your trades with the broader market context, such as DXY trends. 💬 What’s your take on EUR/USD? Are you a breakout or reaction trader? Share your insights in the comments! I’m Skeptic , dedicated to simplifying trading and helping you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing and learning together! 😊
Short
by SkepticWise
1
Euro Back to Parity?The possibility of EUR/USD reaching parity remains a realistic scenario under current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. 1. Diverging Monetary Policies In light of Tump 2.0 and the potential impact of increasing inflation due to the introduction of tariffs, the Federal Reserve is seen to be backing down on its path to keep cutting rates. On the current plans for only 2 rate cuts in 2025, elevated U.S. interest rates could continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, as higher yields attract foreign investment, increasing demand for USD. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces mounting pressure to ease its policy stance. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of stagnation, with Germany, the region's economic engine, teetering on the brink of recession. A dovish ECB weakens the euro relative to the dollar, contributing to downside pressure on EUR/USD. 2. Weakening Eurozone Economy The U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient, supported by robust labor markets and consumer spending. Conversely, the Eurozone has struggled with sluggish growth and energy dependence, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks. 3. Geopolitical Risks The ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine war continue to strain Europe’s energy sector. While the region has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas, high energy prices remain a structural challenge, eroding business competitiveness and consumer purchasing power. Heightened geopolitical tensions globally have fueled risk-off sentiment, benefiting the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 4. Technical Analysis EUR/USD has been trading in a downward trend since October 2024, after reaching a peak of 1.12. Should the pair break below the round number level of 1.02 (and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) the path to parity becomes increasingly plausible, with 1.00 serving as the next major psychological support. The 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, forming a " death cross " pattern, which indicates bearish momentum. Additionally, the TSRI MACD crossover indicates continued selling pressure but room for further downside. Conclusion The conditions are aligned for EUR/USD to reach parity. While short-term volatility and market sentiment may delay this move, the structural drivers of dollar strength and euro weakness remain firmly in place.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Midnight for the Next Two Months $DJ30The last time this happened was in 2024 September to November. Market picked up and snagged orders. Midnight will tell. Market can fall a minimum of 5% from the orange line if it goes under the deep dark blue and try to stabilize from there. There is a lot going on though... ...inauguration, the Yellen bond market, the Fed waiting for a higher yield on debt, the budget deficit, and whatever else catastrophe-wise can rear it's ugly head between now (January 2025 to March 2025. Prepare & take care. #DebtCycle
BLACKBULL:DJ30.F
by NebulousMercuria
XAUUSD 12/1/24XAUUSD remains our second pair as usual. Orion is clear as always, giving us a bullish bias to target the highs. Similar to EU, we only have one high to aim for, so the options are the same as mentioned in that write-up. We could pull back from the current position, creating a new low in the process, which would lead us into the lows and present a long entry opportunity in line with the bias. Alternatively, we might take the high first and then drop down into the lows, which would also provide a potential long entry. Overall, we are anticipating a higher shift and need to monitor the lows for this to materialize. Follow Orion, stick to your plan, and manage your risk properly.
FX:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
GBP/USD IS BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Cable is 100% bearish. On a monthly,weekly and daily perspective she is bearish. We will be looking for sells however we do see some buying opportunities located around 1.19 and above. For sellers we are seeing them primarily in control with no signs of reversal. The goal here for the account is to focus heavy on the continuation and to utilize our gains wisely. This year will be a year where I will be focusing on account builds (small to big). This compound skill is a skillset that is worth multi millions and if learned correctly will literally separate you from 99% of traders. The key from what it seems in my research is finding the right timing and scaling into the bigger overall move with intra day positions. Another way is to effectively focus on % gain wins w/ a decent weekly hit rate. Both are scenarios in which require the trader to understand the asset of choice like the back of their hand. Another goal of mine this year will be finally tackling the prop firm space. Now this particular space to me screams red flags due to the lack of reliability and the casino effect tied to all prop firms world wide. In short, the casino effect reflects on how hard these prop firms will be towards profitable traders. They can create rules and eliminate winning trades because of some made up rule they decided to implement. To me, that is one of the biggest issues I have and people playing with hard earned money is a huge no for me and to make matters worse, all these accounts we are paying for are demo accounts. However, I cant just ignore the space so to meet everything half way I will be purchasing the smallest account size available. Doing this, my investment towards their business model is minimal and the profits will be used to scale into the biggest account they have. This will also let my models prove to me they are ready to tackle space and effectively generate weekly % gains in order to even consider investing into any prop firm. Other than that, GBP/USD is bearish and we are ready to push our models in order to facilitate the upcoming plays. As always, trade safe. Mr.Oazb
Short
by MROAZB
EURUSD 12/1/24Starting the week with our clear bias and understanding of what we aim to trade on EUR/USD. This bias and understanding are, as always, brought to us by Orion, providing precise bias, points of interest, and entry areas. This week, we observe institutions once again driving the market downward, and we plan to follow this flow. Based on the current market conditions, we are presented with a target low and a major collection of highs, creating a strong area to watch for bearish momentum to return. The game plan is simple: look for a new low to form, giving us targets to aim for. If this happens, watch for the highs to be taken out, which will align us with our short bias. Alternatively, if our current target is reached first, we’ll shift our focus to the highs, providing opportunities to target new lows as the market retraces back to these areas, keeping us in line with the short bias. Follow what price action shows you and, as always, trust Orion. Stick to your plan, follow your rules.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURAUD - Start 2025 with a BIG Win!EURAUD has given us a fantastic opportunity to get in at the very start of a BIG move. We are currently in an ABC correction. We'e completed waves A and B and now currently in wave C. We're expecting 5 waves from wave C and looks as if we've completed wave 1 and currently in wave 2. We're looking to catch the rest of the move on the break of the trendline. Trade Idea: - Safe entry on break of trendline - Riskier entry within the fibs or anywhere below invalidation - stops above invalidation - Targets: 1.6 (700pips), 1.156 (1100pips) - Taper as we move lower What do you guys think? Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
8
AUD/USD Is Crashing—Don’t Miss This Massive Opportunity!In this analysis, we dive deep into the AUD/USD pair, highlighting its ongoing bearish momentum and key levels to watch. Starting from the monthly timeframe, we explore the AUD’s struggles against the USD, identifying a strong bearish close in December and potential continuation downward. Key Highlights: • The Aussie Dollar has been in a 14-week downtrend , with the .6130 support level now in focus. • On the H4 timeframe , we’re looking for a pullback to areas like .6180 or a liquidity sweep around .6200 for potential sell opportunities. • Why the USD matters: The Dollar Index (DXY) shows bullish strength with strong volume increases, higher highs, and key resistance levels broken. These indicate continued pressure on AUD/USD. Expectations: • A potential break of the .6130 support level with further bearish movement as the USD strengthens. • Watch for reactions at key levels and pullbacks before entering short positions. If this breakdown was helpful, boost the post, share it with your trading circle, and let us know in the comments what pair you’d like analyzed next. Let’s keep dominating the markets! 💼📊 #AUDUSD #ForexAnalysis #TradingInsights #DXY
Short
by BlueOceanFxAcademy
2
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Update: Peaking Phase in FocusIn our previous analysis, we projected a bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), forecasting its strength to persist until it reached a critical "Area of Interest" (highlighted in pink on the chart). This area corresponds to a significant resistance zone near the 109.6–110.0 level, as marked on the chart. Current Observations: - The DXY has now entered the projected "peaking phase," as shown by its approach to the identified resistance zone. - Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions near this level, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal. - The chart highlights a series of ascending waves culminating in the current peak, aligning with the earlier analysis of the bullish phase ending by early 2025. What’s Next? - A bearish reversal is anticipated, with the DXY likely retracing to lower support levels. Key targets for the downturn are: - The 100.00 psychological level, which also aligns with a structural support zone. - The 97.8 level, representing a major support from previous price action. - The longer-term downtrend trendline remains intact, suggesting the DXY could experience sustained weakness throughout 2025. Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: As noted earlier, a weakening U.S. dollar often correlates with upward momentum in dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If the DXY confirms its reversal, we could see a bullish breakout in Bitcoin beginning around Q1–Q2 2025, as the market prices in dollar devaluation. Conclusion: Investors should monitor the DXY's behavior closely within the "Area of Interest." Confirmation of a bearish reversal could trigger significant market shifts across various asset classes. Stay vigilant for further updates as the DXY's trajectory unfolds.
TVC:DXYShort
by Kenayi
1
DXY Is Going Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 109.638. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 111.019 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD D1 BEARISH, RETURN TO PARITY ?Lot of confluence factors indicate that EUR is going to give way to USD COT Delta = black line dropping hard, Institutions are heavily short YIELD Differential = green/red line, nosedive lower LIQUIDITY Differential = orange line = FED more restrictive than ECB ? GAPS = Next Weekly gap is 150 pips lower @ 1.01 = Yearly S1 PIVOTS = Price below Yearly PP, heading for Yearly S1 @ 1.0050 = GAP Low FUNDAMENTALS = USD beats EUR on pretty much all metrics ECONOMICS = Germany, the EU-powerhouse, in multi-year recession POLITICS = Trust is fading, most EU-countries (will) vote for change Looking for a drop in price to 1.01, probably return to parity before spring
Short
by xtrader1