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DXY

Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Pivot: 107.51 1st Support: 105.72 1st Resistance: 109.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
2
EUR/USD on high time frame "Regarding EUR/USD on high time frames, as per my recent analysis, the price has shifted towards a bullish momentum. I anticipate the price to surpass the mitigated order block on the 4-hour chart and reach the 1/1 price zone on the weekly and daily time frames. However, this analysis would be invalidated if the price closes below 1.02 on the daily time frame." If you have any specific questions or if you need further assistance with your text, please let me know!
Long
by somayehbasiri
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons. - Tariffs speculation - Inflation data higher than expected - US M2 money supply increase - US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
TVC:DXYShort
by UCHE9121
2
Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY 📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊 Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109. A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely. Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93. 🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by Trwin
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? The EURUSD pair reacted bullishly after touching the support zone, leading to an upward movement. This support level aligns with an ascending trendline, adding to its significance. Currently, the price is struggling with a key resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this level would generate a bullish signal, potentially driving the price toward the next target level. However, if the support zone is broken, the bullish scenario would be invalidated. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
19
GOLD → Waiting for news. What next?OANDA:XAUUSD during the adjustment period, we are monitoring key risk zones from which the trend may continue or the correction could extend longer... The focus today is on the scheduled US CPI data release, which could provide new momentum for gold. Markets remain concerned about Trump's tariffs potentially triggering inflationary pressures, which could allow the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. The US dollar strengthened significantly following speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, putting pressure on gold prices for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. However, Trump also hinted at considering additional tariffs on goods, raising concerns about a global trade war and serving as a catalyst for this safe-haven precious metal. Gold's next movement depends on inflation data and Trump's tariff levels. If CPI exceeds forecasts, the dollar will strengthen and gold prices will decline. Conversely, weak data could support the metal's growth. Resistance levels: 2898, 2911, 2930 Support levels: 2880, 2870, 2855 From a technical perspective, breaking above the support level at 2880 indicates the market remains bullish and quite aggressive. If buyers maintain prices above 2880-2885, then in the short and medium term, we should expect prices to rise to 2930-2950. If gold breaks below 2880 and stays under this zone, market liquidation could occur and prices may fall to 2855, 2848, after which we can expect gold's growth to resume.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
4
"Gold Bullish Continuation: Waiting for Retest and Buy ConfirmatThis XAUUSD 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. A major support zone has been identified, and price is expected to retest this area before a potential continuation to the upside. The weak high suggests liquidity above, making it a potential target. The analysis indicates waiting for a retest at the support zone and confirming a buying opportunity before targeting higher levels. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Gold: Northbound GoGold Market Outlook: Northbound Momentum Persists Amid Inflation and Trade Concerns XAU/USD Rebounds from Inflation Shock, Poised for Further Gains Following a temporary shakeout triggered by inflation data, gold (XAU/USD) has regained its bullish momentum, reinforcing the narrative of an ongoing uptrend. The precious metal demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from its dip to $2,865 and reclaiming higher levels as buyers stepped in swiftly. Currently, gold is navigating a pivotal zone around $2,908, a level that could determine the next major price move. Key upcoming events, such as the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, will likely influence gold's trajectory in the short term. Macroeconomic Landscape: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Trade Risks The broader macroeconomic environment remains supportive of gold, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic landscape, further bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance in response to rising inflation, resulting in higher bond yields that temporarily pressured gold prices downward. However, investors quickly capitalized on the dip, reinforcing the metal’s strong underlying demand. The upcoming PPI report will be a critical factor in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s next move. Should inflationary pressures remain elevated, gold could benefit as investors hedge against potential economic turbulence. Conversely, a softer PPI reading might provide temporary relief for the dollar and yields, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Sentiment Gold’s price action suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase within a key support zone. The $2,900–$2,908 range has emerged as an important battleground for bulls and bears. If buyers maintain control above $2,908, the potential for gold to retest and surpass its all-time high (ATH) in the medium term remains strong. Key Resistance Levels: $2,920: A critical near-term level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum. $2,929: A significant resistance point that could attract selling pressure but, if surpassed, would signal continued strength. $2,942: A breakout above this level could set the stage for a new price discovery phase. Key Support Levels: $2,908: The immediate support level that must hold to maintain bullish sentiment. $2,902: A deeper retracement zone that could serve as a springboard for another leg higher. Additionally, traders should closely watch the $2,918–$2,920 region, as consolidation above this zone would reinforce bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of an extended rally. Conclusion: Gold’s Path Forward Gold remains well-supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary concerns, with technical indicators pointing to further potential upside. While short-term fluctuations may occur in response to economic data releases, the broader trend suggests that XAU/USD is positioned to continue its northbound journey. Investors should monitor price action around key levels, as a successful defense of support at $2,908 or a decisive break above $2,920 could confirm the next directional move. With the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and geopolitical risks in focus, gold remains a crucial asset for portfolio diversification and risk management. As market participants await further economic data, the precious metal's resilience underscores its role as a preferred safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by lonelyPlayer0
Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle