GOLD consolidated all last week! Will we get a move this week?Waiting for price to break outside of value so that we can get a clear direction. Price did not much move waiting for NFP news for the week. And when the news finally happened it did nothing. So we will sit on our hands until price tells us what it would like to do. I am over all bullish and looking for bullish entries. But I also do not want to stick to firm to my bias so if it drops we will hold off and allow price to tell us what it wants to do.
DXY
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 105.962.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 103.661.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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DXY index
Hello traders,
I would like to discuss the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index). The price has reached the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), and all the buy stops indicated on the chart are now in play. Additionally, the daily and 4-hour timeframes are showing signals that suggest a downward movement.
After a pullback to the 107 zone, this could present a good opportunity for a short position.
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If you have any specific areas you’d like to focus on or further questions, feel free to let me know!
Xagusd
I have two scenarios for silver. As you can see on the chart, the price is located in a critical zone. It has attempted to break through this level multiple times but has not succeeded yet. If the price closes strongly above this zone on the high timeframe, I will look for candle formations on the lower timeframe as a buying opportunity, targeting $33.
The second scenario is if the price fails to close above the zone and instead just sweeps the liquidity with a shadow. In this case, the next step could be a decline to $29.
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If you have any specific areas you'd like to improve or further questions, feel free to ask!
R2F Weekly Analysis - 8th December 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
Shorting the Dollar: A Madman's GameI’m going to take this trade—it's close enough to the level where it would invalidate my idea. I may tighten my stops a bit, but I’m okay with taking a second shot later if I get stopped out.
The Dollar is indeed strong right now, so I’m going against the trend here. I’ll be aggressively taking profits if it dips a bit. If we push past 106.75, I might consider shorting it.
This price action is looking very similar to the July-September 2023 move.
TVC:DXY
US DOLLAR Weekly Forex Forecast: Look For BUYS This Week!USD INDEX is bullish for the short term... but bearish in the longer term. This week will have
opportunities for short term long positions. Just be mindful not to swing for home runs! The larger pullback seems to have started, so the bears are coming!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USD Index // Preparation for the ExpansionThe Dollar Index is bearish on the daily, within the valid daily countertrend.
The H4 long countertrend is also valid, and since in this trend, there is no space to trade, I'm waiting for the market to turn south in the direction of the daily short trend.
My trigger is at the H4 breakout. Once this level is broken, I'm in to ride the wave down to the daily breakout (blue) and maybe to the weekly breakout (purple).
The correction fibo is drawn with thin black dashed lines, and 38.2 is pretty much in line with the daily breakout, therefore, a nice target.
Going for the correction fibo 50 is a bit more risky, and there is the weekly breakout along the way.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
🏄🏼♂️
And feel free to express your opinion in the comments! 🙂
Weekly Forex Forecast: USD is Bullish In The Short Term!The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Transcript
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 06.12.2024Here is what I am looking for next;
Option 1: Gold keeps dropping in its bear trend. Our target is $2,580. You can see the zig zag move Gold is creating. We saw a break below + retest so should continue now.
Option 2: If Gold moves above $2,690 next week then we can see a mid term bull trend towards $2,740 before it drops back down again.
Look up!True story there's not enough YFI for everyone and it hit 90k before BTC just saying.. 🤷♂️
"You know yfi and btc have different supply/market cap scenarios right???"
"Ya, but... but.. but.." BOOM
Yahh ummm Number still go up bra! it don't matter to the memeholics so then why should I care ya know?
Soooo little time with sooo little coin. You tell me if that matters! Every Bitcoin Maxii from here to to the moon blabs about it none stop! "Olny 21Mil Only 21Mil! BTC Digital Gold!
Oh ya?? So tell me Circulating supply 33.60K YFI whats that make YFI then?
"One coin to rule them all until there is wait two or three... Oh wait there's another one!!!"
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏 FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
P.S. Now witha bag!
P.S.S. well two or Ten
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Even today's NFP data couldn't push enough volatility into Gold to invalidate our structure🦾 Today's positive NFP data should have pushed Gold down aggressively, but price is still ranging within a 'Flat Corrective' schematic in-between Wave A & Wave B.
We will see push Gold down but ONLY AFTER a 'Flat Corrective' phase has finished playing out. The market will flush out & liquidate all the impatient traders first, then push us higher profits.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) currently reflects a bearish trend The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) currently reflects a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart. The immediate resistance is around 106.620, while the current price gravitates towards the support level at 105.250. This downtrend aligns with technical indicators signaling potential bearish momentum.
Recent trading data confirms a drop to around 105.93 during the last session, reinforcing expectations of further downward movement, possibly testing the 105.250 level soon.
The Silent Cost of FOMO Trades: What Your Anxiety Is SayingLast Thursday, I watched my 8-year-old nephew at a birthday party, desperately trying to play with every toy, eat every snack, and join every game simultaneously. He ended up in tears, overwhelmed and exhausted, having fully enjoyed none of them. Looking at my trading journal that evening, I had to laugh - I'd done exactly the same thing in the markets that day.
The FOMO Frenzy
You know that feeling - EUR/USD is climbing, GBP/JPY is breaking out, and USD/CAD is testing support. Your heart races. Your palms sweat. Suddenly you've got positions in all three pairs, and your mind is spinning like a circus juggler with too many balls in the air.
What Your Anxiety Is Really Saying
That knot in your stomach? It's not just stress - it's your internal risk manager throwing up red flags. Think of anxiety like your car's check engine light. Most people try to ignore it or put tape over it. But what if that warning light is actually your most valuable trading tool?
The Real Cost (It's Not Just Money)
Last month, I lost 4% of my account in a single day chasing trades. But the real cost wasn't the money - it was:
Three sleepless nights
Snapping at my wife over breakfast
Missing my kid's soccer game because I was glued to charts
Taking twice as long to recover my confidence
The Birthday Party Strategy
Now I treat my trading like I wish my nephew had handled that birthday party. Pick one game. Enjoy it fully. Then, if it makes sense, move to the next one. In trading terms:
One trade at a time
Full focus on that setup
Clear exit plan
]No peeking at other pairs until this trade is managed
Your Brain on FOMO
Here's what happens when FOMO kicks in - your brain floods with dopamine, the same chemical that makes my nephew grab three cupcakes at once. Your prefrontal cortex (the rational part) gets overwhelmed by your limbic system (the emotional part). Suddenly you're trading like a sugar-rushed 8-year-old.
The Solution: Your Personal FOMO Filter
I've taped a note to my monitor that asks:
"If this were the only trade you could take this month, would you take it?"
It's amazing how quickly FOMO evaporates when you frame it that way. I went from taking 15-20 trades per week to 2-5, and my profit has doubled.
Your Next Step
FIf you find yourself battling FOMO, try this: Each time you feel the urge to place a trade, wait 5 minutes. Just 5 minutes. Write down what you're feeling. You'll be amazed at how many FOMO trades never make it past this 5-minute filter.
Remember, the market is like an endless birthday party - it'll be there tomorrow, next week, and next year. You don't have to play every game or eat every cupcake today.
Cheers to your success,
Gio
Dollar Index Alert: Reversal Pattern Emerging – Learn MoreLuckily, I spotted a classic reversal pattern right on the edge of triggering.
The combination of three peaks, with the tallest in the middle, has formed a Head & Shoulders chart pattern on the Dollar Index futures daily chart.
The right shoulder is almost complete, and the bearish trigger will be activated if the price breaks below the Neckline (the line connecting the valleys of the Head), which sits under 105.30.
The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head from the Neckline breakdown point, giving us a target around 103.10.
The RSI indicator is also on the edge. Watch for a breakdown here as additional confirmation.
XAGUSD - Silver will return to its upward trend?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the trend line breaks and continues to decline, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance area will provide us with the path for silver to rise to the supply range.
The CIBC bank forecasts that silver prices will average around $35 per ounce in 2025, maintaining this level through 2026. By 2027, prices may slightly decline, averaging $34.50 per ounce.
Analysts at the bank expressed a bullish outlook on gold and silver markets, citing preparations by global markets to deal with the unpredictable policies of Trump’s administration. Last month, the president-elect threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada if they fail to tighten border controls. Additionally, he warned over the weekend that a 100% tariff might be applied to the BRICS bloc if they develop a settlement currency to bypass the U.S. dollar.
Analysts stated, “We anticipate that higher tariffs, the potential for trade wars, lower interest rates, and deregulation will all support rising gold and silver prices.” They added, “We believe that Trump’s tariff policies could provoke retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, thereby fueling inflationary pressures.”
Performance of Gold and Silver in 2024:
• Gold has surged by 29% this year. Following a 3.4% increase in October and a 5.2% gain in September, gold prices declined by 2.5% in November.
• Silver also rose by 29% in 2024. However, after advancing 4.3% in October and 7.9% in September, silver prices fell by 5.2% in November.
Throughout 2024, gold has repeatedly hit record highs, breaking price ceilings 39 times. However, silver has yet to return to its previous bull market peak of $50 per ounce. While this may be disappointing for silver enthusiasts, historical trends suggest that silver often lags behind gold during bullish cycles, only to later outpace gold explosively. This lag presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on potential gains in this market.
Meanwhile, the market’s primary focus remains on the release of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and potential signals from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the central bank’s communication blackout, starting at midnight on Friday.
The most significant signal so far has come from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member. Waller expressed willingness to support a rate cut in December, but noted that this decision depends on forthcoming economic data. He specifically highlighted the NFP report as one of five key indicators under consideration but cautioned that these figures might be distorted by factors such as October’s strikes, post-storm economic activity, and the upcoming elections.
Currently, markets estimate a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December 18 meeting. This likelihood has dipped slightly from 75% earlier this week but has remained unchanged since Monday.
In addition to the NFP report, scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials—including Bowman, Goolsbee, Harker, and Daly—are planned for Friday.
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week.
From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook.
Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower.
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XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting NFP!In the 4H timeframe, gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and has exited its ascending channel. If gold re-enters the channel and stabilizes above the drawn downward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the supply zone, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. The failure of the support area paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy in the demand zones.
The U.S. nonfarm payroll report is set to be released today, drawing the full attention of markets. It is expected that nonfarm jobs will increase by 200,000, primarily due to the resolution of the Miloten hurricane and the conclusion of Boeing’s strike.
However, recent charts indicate a declining trend in nonfarm employment over the past few years, confirming the weaker labor market conditions that the Federal Reserve has noted during its rate-cutting cycle. Even if the headline figure exceeds 200,000, it is unlikely to prompt a change in policymakers’ stance. The unemployment rate is also projected to rise to 4.2%.
Markets may look for meaningful insights from today’s employment data, but they are unlikely to find anything substantial. Overall, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
Forecasts for job growth range between 155,000 and 275,000, compared to just 12,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate for this month is anticipated at 4.2%, slightly up from 4.1% last month. Last month’s precise unemployment rate was reported at 4.145%, while the labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%.
In terms of wages, annual average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4% last month. Monthly wage growth is forecasted at 0.3%, slightly below the previous month’s 0.4%. Average weekly working hours are expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours.
Key data released so far include:
• ADP Report: 146,000 jobs added compared to 150,000 in the previous month.
• ISM Services Employment Index: Declined to 51.5 from 53, still the second-highest figure of the year.
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Rose to 48.1 from 44.4.
• Challenger Job Cuts: 57,727 compared to 55,597 in the previous month.
• Philadelphia Fed Employment Index: Increased to 8.6 from -2.2.
• Empire State Employment Index: Rose slightly to 0.9 from 4.1.
Recent trends suggest that the labor market is generally weakening, though temporary improvements are evident in some areas. JOLTS data paints a similar picture, with most Federal Reserve members convinced that the labor market is cooling. However, a single NFP report is unlikely to alter this broader trend, particularly given the influence of hurricanes, elections, and the end of Boeing’s strike on the numbers.
On the other hand, President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business policies and "America First" approach have pushed gold prices lower ahead of the new year. However, one Canadian bank believes that gold's upward trend is not over yet.
While markets may need time to adjust to Trump's economic policies, CIBC analysts remain bullish on gold's future in 2025. Investors should not be surprised by the gold market's current woes, the analysts said, as a similar trend was seen in 2016, during Trump's first term. The Bank of Canada has reiterated its summer forecasts and stated that Trump's impact on the gold market will ultimately be positive.
According to analysts, “It may take several seasons, but inflationary pressures will eventually show. Although this issue may challenge the trend of interest rate cuts, we believe that wealth preservation and the desire of non-US investors and central banks for safe assets will continue to support gold prices."
Peter Schiff, chief strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, believes that the price of gold will not return below $2,000 an ounce, and that the price of gold is likely to double or triple. He noted that gold fluctuated between $1,500 and $2,000 from 2011 to 2024 and has now reached higher levels without resistance.
Schiff emphasized at the New Orleans investment conference that the performance of gold this year shows the strength and high potential of this valuable metal. He also predicted that as the price of gold rises, more investors will be interested in stocks of mining companies.
Meanwhile, BlackRock emphasized in its recent report that the Federal Reserve does not appear to have entered a typical cycle of interest rate cuts. The analysis shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025.
This reduction will occur in a situation where economic growth will slow down somewhat, but inflation will still remain above the target. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates below 4%, and rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
GOLD → NFP may release price from consolidationFX:XAUUSD declines to 2615 and forms a false breakdown. Traders are confused as they wait for NFP and are not preparing for premature action yet, waiting for economic data...
The dollar is having some trouble indicating it is ready to enter a deeper correction phase, but now it all depends on NFP and the Fed. Metal is still squeezed inside the 2660 - 2615 flat. A false break of the support forms a pullback to the liquidity sides
If the NFP is below the expected 200K, the gold may go up, as it will indicate the continued cooling of the US labor market and encourage the Fed to cut rates further. But, strong NFP data could put pressure on the decision to pause the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, which could put negative pressure on the metal....
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660
Support levels: 2636, 2605
Technically, the NFP may influence the price to leave the channel, which may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The price direction depends on the immediate actual employment data....
A break of resistance will trigger a rise to 2690
A break of support will trigger a fall to 2580
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → Channel breakout. Attempt to change the trendFX:GBPUSD finds an opportunity to grow. A breakout of the local trend resistance is forming amid the dollar correction. Zones of interest: 1.300
The retest of the intermediate bottom ends with reversal candlestick patterns and market reversal structure. The big question is: How long will it last? It all depends on the dollar. The US market received negative jobless claims data yesterday, which may also affect the NFP, which will be released later today. A worse-than-expected data will intensify the dollar correction, pointing to the problems in the economy (against what Powell said recently). In such a scenario, forex currencies may get a chance for a small rally.
Technically, a channel breakout is a good signal that could turn into a strong momentum, but apparently traders are not in a hurry yet....
Resistance levels: 1.284, 1.300
Support levels: 1.272, 1.261, 1.2488
Accordingly, if a false breakout of resistance is formed and the price falls beyond 1.272, then we should expect a decline to 1.24. But at the moment there are positive signs to gain from 1.275 to 1.300 in the medium term.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
$NFLX Farewell , I bid the adeiu It was a nice ride I'm sure. But it's time to go back down now. RSI hitting resistance on the monthly. Daily exhausted with 7 green days in a row , with a doji to top it off. I would love a gap up and touch of the highs, then flush!! 3 days of red incoming. Monthlies can pay well 💬