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Gold Alert: Testing 2881 Risk Zone!Gold at a Crossroads: Awaiting Key Triggers XAUUSD is navigating a critical juncture, testing a pivotal risk zone that could dictate its next major move. From this level, we either witness a trend continuation or a deeper corrective phase. Key Drivers: CPI Data & Policy Uncertainty All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI report, which could inject fresh momentum into the market. Inflation figures will play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, influencing both gold and the broader financial landscape. Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic uncertainties add complexity. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is preparing new tariffs, which could introduce fresh volatility and global economic risks. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing expectations of only a single rate cut in July. This has pushed bond yields higher, creating additional headwinds for gold. Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 2898, 2910, 2929 Support: 2881, 2870, 2855 Potential Scenarios: 🔹 Bullish Case: A false break below 2881 could signal ongoing bullish momentum. If buyers defend the 2881 – 2885 zone, gold may stage a rally towards 2930 – 2950 in the short to medium term. 🔹 Bearish Case: A decisive break and consolidation below 2881 could trigger a wave of liquidation, driving prices lower towards 2855 – 2848. Market Sentiment: A Stalemate Before the Storm With crucial news ahead, the market is at a tipping point. Whether gold surges or sinks depends on inflation data, Fed policy clarity, and potential tariff developments. Traders should brace for volatility as these catalysts unfold.
FX:XAUUSD
by lonelyPlayer0
"Gold Price Analysis: Key Support Break Could Target 2865 and LoThe chart shows that gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a descending channel after a strong uptrend. The price is testing a major support zone around 2883, and a break below this level with bearish confirmation could lead to further downside. the bearish structure suggests more downside pressure. Keep an eye on confirmation signals before taking a position. If gold breaks below 2883, the first short-term target would be 2865. If bearish momentum continues, the next target would be around 2845, followed by the key support at 28 72. Watch for confirmation before entering a position.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Highlights of J.Powell's monetary policy testimony1. Interest rate outlook: Reiterating that there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates. If the economy remains strong and inflation does not get close to 2%, policy can remain prudent for longer. If the labor market weakens unexpectedly or inflation falls more than expected, policy could be loosened modestly. 2. Inflation situation: Long-term inflation expectations appear solid. Inflation is close to the 2% target, but still a bit high. Focus on achieving your dual goals. The Fed's framework review will not focus on inflation targeting. 3. Labor market: Unemployment rate remains low and stable. The labor market situation has cooled after the previous overheating period and remains solid, not becoming a source of inflationary pressure. The labor market situation in general remains balanced. 4. Banking supervision: Commit to adjusting banking supervision activities, avoiding creating excessive burdens for banks. It is necessary to reconsider the "non-bank" issue. Committed to the ultimate goal of completing Basel III. 5. Long-term interest rates: The Federal Reserve cannot control long-term interest rates, and the reason long-term interest rates are high has nothing to do with Federal Reserve policy. Long-term interest rates are determined by supply and demand in the bond market. 6. Tariff issue: I still maintain my previous view that countries implementing free trade will have faster economic growth. The Federal Reserve declined to comment on the Trump administration's tariff policy. 7. Housing issues: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may lower mortgage rates. Even as interest rates fall, the housing shortage continues. It is unclear whether interest rate cuts will lead to a reduction in housing inflation. 8. Other highlights: If the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is shut down, there will be a gap in consumer compliance protections. There is no possibility of launching a central bank digital currency.
TVC:DXY
by Xayah_trading
"Gold Price Rebounds from Major Support, Eyeing Key Resistance LThis chart represents a 1-hour time frame analysis of gold (XAUUSD). The price recently tested a major support zone and showed signs of rejection, indicating potential bullish momentum. A possible target for the upside move is around the 2,926 resistance zone, with the first target at 2,904. The price structure suggests that if the support holds, buyers may push the price toward these levels. However, a failure to hold above the support zone could signal further downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
4 Scenarios for Anticipating The Fed's PolicyBased on prevailing economic conditions and financial pressures Scenario #1 | The Fed’s Policy and Its Implications High Inflation Persists & Bank Liquidity Declines Conditions: Bank Credit grows slowly, while Deposits grow at a slower pace than Borrowings. Cash Assets decline significantly, indicating a reduction in liquidity within the banking system. Interbank lending rates rise, tightening funding among banks. Inflation remains high, but economic growth slows. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Maintain high interest rates or increase further to curb inflation. Reduce bond holdings through Quantitative Tightening (QT) to absorb liquidity from the financial system. Open emergency lending facilities for banks to prevent panic in financial markets. Impacts: USD may strengthen as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Increased pressure on banks, especially those heavily reliant on short-term funding. Stock markets may experience a correction, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. Scenario #2 | Recession Starts to Surface & Credit Tightens Conditions: Bank Credit stagnates or turns negative, indicating that banks are restricting credit due to concerns about default risks. Deposits stagnate, as investors prefer alternative assets such as bonds or gold. Stock markets begin showing bearish pressure due to economic uncertainty. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Gradually lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. End Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) to inject liquidity into the markets. Adjust bank reserve requirements to allow more flexibility in lending. Impacts: USD may weaken as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. U.S. government bonds will become more attractive, causing bond yields to decline further. Stock prices may rise, particularly in sectors that benefit from lower interest rates, such as technology and real estate. Scenario #3 | Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System Conditions: Sharp declines in Cash Assets, causing some banks to struggle to meet short-term obligations. Deposits exit the banking system, as public confidence in banks decreases. Federal Funds Rate spikes, making interbank borrowing more difficult. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Provide emergency lending facilities for banks facing liquidity shortages, as seen during the 2008 and 2023 financial crises. Lower interest rates in an emergency move if liquidity pressures worsen to maintain financial stability. Collaborate with the FDIC to guarantee deposits and prevent bank runs. Impacts: Financial markets may experience high volatility, with potential panic selling in banking stocks. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds, causing their prices to surge. Confidence in the USD may temporarily weaken, especially if the Fed injects large amounts of liquidity into the system. Scenario #4 | Soft Landing - Stable Economy & Fed Policy Adjustments Conditions: Inflation is under control, and the economy continues to grow positively. Bank Credit grows steadily, and bank liquidity remains adequate. Stock markets remain calm, with no signs of panic in financial markets. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Keep interest rates stable for an extended period, with no drastic changes. End Quantitative Tightening (QT), but avoid immediately restarting QE. Collaborate with financial regulators to maintain banking system stability without major interventions. Impacts: USD remains stable, as no major monetary policy changes occur. Lending rates remain in a moderate range, supporting investment and consumption growth. Stock markets may gradually recover, particularly in sectors benefiting from stable monetary policies. Anticipating The Fed’s Policy! If liquidity declines and inflation remains high → The Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates & tighten monetary policy. If a recession starts to emerge → The Fed may lower interest rates & ease monetary policy to support credit and investment. If a liquidity crisis occurs → The Fed may bail out banks, lower interest rates, and stabilize the financial system. If the economy remains stable → The Fed may hold interest rates & make only minor adjustments. Recommendations: Monitor The Fed’s statements and key economic data (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP) to anticipate upcoming policy changes. Analyze market reactions to monetary policy to identify trends in stocks, bonds, and USD. Use bank liquidity and Borrowings data to assess potential liquidity constraints in the banking system. If you have additional insights or different perspectives, I’d love to discuss them in the comments! ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DXY CBOE:CBOE NASDAQ:CME TVC:US10Y
ICEUS:DX1!
by CipherOracle
#DXY 1DAYDXY (1D Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price has broken below the uptrend support, signaling a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum. This breakdown indicates that buyers were unable to sustain the upward trend, leading to increased selling pressure. Additionally, a sell engulfing candlestick has formed, further confirming bearish sentiment. Forecast: A sell opportunity is expected as the breakdown of uptrend support and the sell engulfing pattern suggest further downside movement. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: After a confirmed breakdown and possible retest of the broken support as resistance. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed above the broken support or recent swing high. - Take Profit: Target lower support zones for potential downside movement. Market Sentiment: The combination of the uptrend support breakdown and a sell engulfing pattern indicates that bearish momentum is increasing. Waiting for confirmation of continued selling pressure will help align with the prevailing market trend.
TVC:DXYShort
by PIPSFIGHTER
Daily Market Outlook: BTC & Forex Setups (#1)From today, I’ll be sharing daily BTC & Forex market breakdowns, covering key levels, potential trade setups, and insights into market psychology. These won’t just be standard analyses—I’ll also include the setups I personally take and why. Let’s get straight into today’s breakdown. 🔥 📌 BTC Daily & 4H Analysis BTC has held the $95K support zone well, but volume remains extremely low. The doji candles forming on the daily indicate market indecision and lack of strong buying or selling pressure. 📊 Key Takeaways: Order books are thin, meaning any slight increase in volume could trigger a sharp, volatile move. I’m favoring long positions, as they align with the higher timeframe trend. Key Levels to Watch: 🎯 High-Risk Entry: $98,506 – Offers high R/R and a chance to hold the trade longer toward a potential breakout of $107K. ✅ Safer 4H Entry: $106K – More conservative but ensures confirmation. Major Daily Breakout Trigger: $108,660 – Expect high momentum, so it’s better to anticipate the move rather than react late. 📌 DXY Analysis – Key to Forex Market Movement The Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a major uptrend, but momentum is weakening, making its movement more uncertain. 📊 Key Levels: If 107.288 - 107.443 fails as support, expect a deeper correction. Otherwise, DXY remains bullish, which could pressure risk assets. 📌 GBP/CHF 4H – Breakout Play GBP/CHF is currently ranging on the daily timeframe, but on 4H, we have a clear range box. 📊 Potential Trade Setups: Long above 1.13121 🎯 – If resistance breaks, target higher levels. Short below 1.12326 🔻 – If support fails, expect further downside. Bias: Since the previous fake breakdown failed, I see a bullish breakout as the more likely scenario. 📌 JP225 – Channel Uptrend Setup JP225 is trending within an ascending channel and recently faked a breakdown before reclaiming higher levels. 📊 Trade Plan: Breakout of 38,949 → Go long if confirmed. Major Risk Event: US Inflation Data (Wednesday) – Could bring major volatility, so trade with caution. 📌 Market is in a decision-making phase—don’t FOMO, wait for confirmation. 📌 Wednesday’s CPI data could be a key volatility trigger. 📌 Stick to your trading plan & manage risk properly. 🔔 See you tomorrow for the next breakdown! Stay sharp.
by SkepticWise
1
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 06.02.2025Market Analysis: Previous Price Action: The price was consolidating in a range (blue zone) before a breakout. A strong bullish move followed, but then price retraced sharply. Support & Resistance Levels: Key Support Zones: 2,910 – 2,902 and 2,898 – 2,890 Key Resistance Zones: 2,928 and 2,942 Price Behavior: The price is currently testing 2,910, a critical zone. If this support holds, we expect a bullish reversal. If it breaks, the next support at 2,898 will be the next key level for buying. 📈 Trading Signal & Entry Plan: ✅ Setup 1: Buy from 2,910 Entry: 2,910 Stop Loss (SL): 2,902 (below recent support) Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2,928 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2,942 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2+ 👉 If SL (2,902) is hit, move to the second setup. ✅ Setup 2: Buy from 2,898 (if price breaks below 2,910) Entry: 2,898 Stop Loss (SL): 2,890 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2,928 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2,942 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 (higher probability trade) 📌 Conclusion & Trading Plan ✔ First buy at 2,910 – If it holds, price should move up to 2,928-2,942. ✔ If SL (2,902) hits, buy at 2,898 with a tighter stop. ✔ Both setups have a good risk-reward ratio, following a bullish bias. Do not forget to like, comment and follow.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Quinn901
Levels discussed on Livestream 10th Feb 202510th Feb 2025 DXY: Could trade down to 108 (or consolidate here) before climbing higher to 108.90 or 109 (61.8%). NZDUSD: Sell 0.5620 SL 20 TP 70 (hesitation at 0.5580) AUDUSD: In abit of a range, look for test and reaction at 0.6363 resistance level. GBPUSD: Sell 1.2350 SL 30 TP 85 (watch the trendline) EURUSD: Sell 1.0290 SL 25 TP 65 USDJPY: Buy 152.40 SL 40 TP 80 EURJPY: Sell 156.25 SL 40 TP 80 GBPJPY: Buy 189.70 SL 60 TP 200 USDCHF: Do nothing, middle of S/R USDCAD: Buy 1.44 SL 30 TP 60 XAUUSD: Retracing now, needs to stay above 2870, could trade up to 2910
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
DXY Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 108.210. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 107.439 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1