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GOLD → Consolidation before a strong movement. But where to?FX:XAUUSD continues to consolidate and we have questionable preconditions that indicate both a possible fall (fundamental background) and growth (technical background). Gold is holding back after Fed Chairman Powell's speech: The US economy is in remarkably good shape.We are moving very quickly with rates. "I am very pleased with where monetary policy is right now" Unemployment is still very low and progress is being made in fighting inflation The focus remains on the jobless claims data and NFP at this time Technically, the focus is on consolidation in a locally rising channel format. A price exit from the channel in either direction may be accompanied by a strong impulse. Resistance levels: 2655, 2660, 2688 Support levels: 2636, 2620, 2605 Two scenarios due to mixed and stalemate situation: black: Powell commented on the situation as strong enough for the US market, accordingly, gold is forming a consolidation in a flag format, which is technically a pattern for a continuation of the fall. blue: On D1 there are prerequisites for local growth. If the price breaks 2655, then 2660, the growth may continue to the zone of interest 2688. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
USD/CHF: Indices and Market Factors Driving SentimentIndex and Volume Analysis: - The DXY continues to reflect a softer dollar amid weaker labor market data, which has weighed on OANDA:USDCHF upward momentum. - Equity markets remain mixed, with the SP:SPX and Nasdaq posting slight gains, suggesting a cautious risk-on sentiment. Key Companies and Influencing Factors: - U.S. Equities:** Positive sentiment in U.S. equities, driven by tech and consumer sectors, could limit CHF’s safe-haven appeal. - Swiss Market Index (SMI): The SMI remains steady, reflecting Switzerland’s broader economic resilience but offering no major CHF-driving factors. Possible Market Impacts: - If the risk-on sentiment continues in equities, USD/CHF could find support and move toward the TP of **0.90043**. - Conversely, any shifts toward risk-off sentiment or additional dollar weakness could push the pair closer to your SL of **0.87998**. Entry, SL, and TP: - **Entry:** 0.88358 - **Stop Loss (SL):** 0.87998 - **Take Profit (TP):** 0.90043 When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave! Reminder: *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
Long
by SiriusTrading
AUDUSD - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈AUDUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising flat channel in blue. Moreover, it is rejecting a strong support in green. 🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDUSD is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
19
DXY Is Going Down! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 106.196. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 105.500 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
Bearish drop off overlap reisstance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 106.58 1st Support: 105.44 1st Resistance: 107.05 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
3
"EUR/USD: Rebound Before Deeper Decline"The EUR/USD currency pair finds itself in a delicate phase of local correction, driven primarily by the temporary softening of the US dollar. This correction comes amidst a backdrop of complex global dynamics and heightened market sensitivity to news-driven events. The currency pair appears poised to retest local highs in the short term, yet traders should approach this opportunity with a heightened sense of vigilance. Today’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact events, and the fundamental backdrop remains skewed heavily toward negativity for the euro. These factors could amplify volatility and result in sharp, unpredictable price movements. ### **Macro and Fundamental Overview** From a macroeconomic perspective, the euro faces a host of challenges that continue to undermine its strength. Persistent global headwinds, such as the lingering effects of Trump-era policies, including tariffs targeting European exports, have placed sustained pressure on the region’s trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Europe’s monetary policy stance remains dovish, with the European Central Bank leaning toward maintaining or even reducing already historically low interest rates. Such a backdrop has solidified the downtrend in EUR/USD, both on a broader and local scale. The US dollar, despite its temporary pullback, remains supported by its role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Factors such as a resilient US labor market, better-than-expected GDP figures, and the Fed’s measured approach to monetary policy keep the dollar attractive relative to the euro. The interplay of these forces suggests that the euro’s upward momentum during corrections is likely to remain limited and short-lived. ### **Technical Analysis: False Breakouts and Resistance Retests** On the technical front, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting signs of a potential false breakout below key support levels. Such patterns often serve as a precursor to temporary price recoveries, as market participants test resistance levels before resuming the dominant trend. In this context, the price action suggests that a retest of nearby resistance levels, coupled with bearish reversal patterns, could pave the way for renewed selling opportunities. The most immediate resistance levels to monitor are 1.0606, 1.0650, and 1.0760. These zones are likely to attract selling pressure, especially if bearish sentiment is reinforced by today’s news events. Conversely, support levels at 1.0517, 1.0440, and 1.0330 remain critical. A decisive break below these levels could accelerate the pair’s descent, signaling the continuation of the broader downtrend. ### **News Sensitivity and Bearish Triggers** Given the heavily saturated news cycle, traders should remain particularly attentive to market reactions to economic releases and geopolitical developments. Key announcements, such as US labor market data, European inflation figures, or updates on trade negotiations, could act as catalysts for sharp price swings. If bearish triggers dominate, such as unexpectedly hawkish commentary from the Fed or further downgrades to Europe’s growth outlook, the pair is likely to face renewed selling pressure, particularly at resistance zones. ### **Trading Strategy and Outlook** In this environment, a prudent trading approach involves waiting for confirmation of bearish reversal signals at resistance levels before considering short positions. Patience is key, as the market may temporarily attempt to test or even breach resistance before resuming its downward trajectory. Traders should also consider using tight stop-loss levels to mitigate risk, given the potential for heightened volatility. To summarize, while the local correction in EUR/USD presents a short-term opportunity to test resistance levels, the overarching bearish narrative remains intact. The interplay of weak euro fundamentals, dovish monetary policy, and a generally strong US dollar points to further downside potential. Monitoring key technical levels, understanding news-driven volatility, and adopting a disciplined approach to risk management will be crucial for navigating the next phase of this downtrend.
Short
by lonelyPlayer0
1
Markets Slowing Down Ahead of NFP, What To Lookout ForHey There, The dollar has been in demand so far this week, boosted by it being seen as a safe-haven amid political turmoil in both South Korea and Europe as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. With France’s government facing “No Confidence votes” that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michael Barnier, pushing the country into uncharted waters of political chaos. Gold Prices rose marginally as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand along with fears of a collaps in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. However, trades continue to remain on the sidelines amid anticipation for more cues on U.S interest rates. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar as it soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S rates.
by DeanMuller
4
XAUUSD - China, still buying gold?!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. The continuation of the movement of gold depends on the failure or failure of this channel, and you can trade in that direction. In case of breaking the bottom of the channel, we can see the continued decline and see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Maintaining the channel has paved the way for gold to rise to the supply zone, and gold can be sold within that zone. Recent credible research analyzing undisclosed purchases since May 2024 confirms that China has been secretly buying gold. A recent analysis has validated long-held suspicions that, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has been a significant and covert buyer of gold beyond officially reported levels. Goldman Sachs had previously hinted at such activity, and new findings by the analyst at Money Metals further substantiate this claim. According to the report, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) discreetly purchased approximately 60 tons of gold in September alone. This trend has been ongoing since May 2024, with evidence suggesting a drawdown from London reserves dating back to May this year. While the PBOC has not reported any gold purchases since April, Goldman Sachs’ NowCast data estimates that around 50 tons of institutional gold purchases were conducted by China in May through the over-the-counter (OTC) market in London. This strategy is not unique to China. Other nations, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, also employ similar tactics to accumulate gold discreetly while avoiding price spikes. The covert nature of these transactions reflects their intent to bolster reserves while maintaining low market prices. One market analyst has cautioned investors hoping for a Christmas rally in gold prices to proceed with caution, as recent volatility may signal a peak in prices, at least for this year. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted in his latest report that gold has consistently experienced price increases in December over the past seven years. However, he warned that while recent price corrections might attract bargain hunters in the final month of 2024, gold’s current high prices remain a risk factor. In his note, Hansen stated that the greatest challenge is the 28.3% rise in gold prices this year, bringing it close to the 29.6% growth seen in 2010 and 31% in 2007. While the fundamental supportive outlook for 2025 remains intact, such significant growth could prompt profit-taking and position adjustments before the year ends. Hansen predicted that while gold may struggle to achieve new highs in December, his outlook for 2025 remains bullish, with prices expected to reach $3,000 in the new year. He added that geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support the precious metal as a safe haven. At the same time, the introduction of new trade tariffs on U.S. imports next year is generally perceived as a positive factor for the U.S. dollar. However, the side effects of a stronger dollar could ripple through the global economy, particularly affecting countries reliant on dollar-denominated debt, commodity trade, and export-driven growth. This dynamic might sustain interest in alternative investments like gold and silver. Hansen further emphasized that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration policies could exacerbate inflation and debt—two key risks that gold investors seek to hedge against.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go?FX:XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen? The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP... Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher... Resistance levels: 2651, 2660 Support levels: 2636, 2618 Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
3
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward. The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%. According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting. “GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked. Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025. Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits. According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S. LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI). In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries. In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry. For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
9
A Brief 57-Year History of the DollarThe year 1971, when the Bretton Woods system ended, marked a period where the dollar's value followed a volatile trajectory of ups and downs—until 2008. The global financial crisis was another turning point, and since then, the dollar has been steadily appreciating. This trend is expected to continue, at least until another significant pivot point emerges. Will such a critical turning point occur during Trump’s second term? That remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the dollar seems poised to keep gaining value.
INDEX:DXYLong
by The_Quantastic
1
Sell GBP/USD Triangle PatternThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2650 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2585 2nd Support – 1.2550 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
A break below 2635 could prompt a steeper decline for XAUUSDTechnical Perspective: Gold hovers between the 2635 - 2650 range and holds above the short-term ascending trend line. If the price closes below the 2635 support with a bearish breakout of the ascending channel, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 2610.00. Conversely, a break above 2650 could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 2665. Fundamental Perspective: Gold consolidated as investors weighed the political and economic outlook while awaiting key economic data. A stronger-than-expected US job openings report pointed to resilience in the labor market, with markets now focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to gauge potential policy moves. The likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve, now at 73%, supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to bolster gold's safe-haven appeal. Elsewhere, Asian markets were rattled after South Korean President Yoon's unexpected decision to impose martial law, only to swiftly reverse course hours later, causing stocks to tumble initially. The Kospi Index dropped as much as 2%, with South Korean assets seeing widespread losses overnight, while equities in Sydney slipped and Tokyo markets opened flat. Despite the turmoil, South Korea's central bank signaled readiness to intervene if necessary, soothing market concerns. Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe, Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by lixing_gan
Sell EUR/USD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0442 2nd Support – 1.040 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
14