BITCOIN SELL TO $86,000 (UPDATE)We've seen a lot of profit taking on BTC by the bigger, institutional firms, leading to a liquidation of $443 Million in the past 12 hours. Believe it or not, $443 Million is nothing for the Crypto market.
As BTC melts lower towards our Wave C (Major Wave 4) price zone, we will see liquidation of retail traders go within the BILLIONS in loss. Don't say I didn't warn you to protect you😉
DXY
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GOLD → Consolidation. One step away from distribution...FX:XAUUSD is faltering a bit due to high risks before the news. In the moment a strong impulse can be formed. The price is consolidating in the local range. Earlier, the price broke the local upward support....
Traders are consolidating in anticipation of economic data. Volatility is decreasing, speculators are not ready to take risks yet, all attention is focused on PMI, Powell's speech on Thursday and NFP on Friday... A rebound in US dollar demand early Tuesday kept gold buyers on the back foot. China's ongoing economic problems and the threat of global tariffs from Trump, geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe and escalating conflict in the Middle East continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
The future direction of the gold price is likely to depend on upcoming employment data and its impact on expectations of a Fed rate cut
Resistance levels: 2660, 2655
Support levels: 2634, 2618, 2605
Since there is no even direction on the market and the price is inside the channel, we will consider trading from its borders. Therefore, a false break of the key resistance may provoke a fall to the support of the range.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Price action has been playing PERFECTLY & following the arrows I drew out on the first analysis! Price has been ranging as I expected & currently in the process of creating a 'flat correction' according to my EW Theory strategy.
However, I will be careful as it is a new month so I wouldn't be surprised if price shoots up so the monthly candle can grab liquidity & create a wick. Keeping an eye out for this option.
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 - Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2652
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 2711
2nd Resistance – 2748
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
US Dollar index feels tiredIntraday Update: The US Dollar index has a rising trend line at 105.90's, and the 50% retracement of the last leg move higher is at 105.80 and the 127% ext at 105.52 will remains key support. If broken, we should see a move stronger move lower of the trend higher since late September.
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 106.245.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 105.683 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USD/JPY - H1 - Bearish Flag The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 150.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 149.20
2nd Support – 148.50
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
GOLD → The bears are gaining weight. Resistance retestFX:XAUUSD is declining after a false break of the resistance of the range. The fundamental background is mixed and does not yet allow to form a clear medium and long term strategy, BUT! ...
Trump's policies create new risks. Before taking office, he has already signaled the growth of tariffs for the whole world (Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, BRICS countries). The growth of geopolitical risks also affects the price of metal. On the background of the dollar growth and expected reduction of interest rates by the Fed, gold is declining and confirms the bearish structure of the market. The markets' attention is focused on the ISM manufacturing PMI index in the US. Data from the US
Technically, the price is breaking the ascending support line as well as the 2636 zone, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment. A correction is forming and we should pay attention to the key resistance, liquidity and imbalance zones
Resistance Levels: 2636, 0.5-0.7 Fibo, 2650
Support levels: 2622, 2618, 2605
A retest of the previously broken structure and zone of interest is forming. False breakout of 0.5-0.7 fibo (retest) can provoke active selling on the background of the newly growing dollar. But, globally, gold is still in a sideways range without a clear trend direction...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD | 15M | TECHNICAL CHARTI have prepared a OANDA:XAUUSD analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
**Gold’s Dance Within the Channel: Navigating Range Boundaries**Gold Price Analysis: Navigating a Complex Fundamental and Technical Landscape
Gold (XAU/USD) has edged lower to approximately $2,620 amidst recent geopolitical developments, yet the overarching market fundamentals remain precarious. The current price dynamics are influenced by a combination of political tension, economic uncertainty, and low liquidity conditions stemming from the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. These elements create a unique trading environment characterized by potential for sudden volatility and exaggerated price movements.
Fundamental Analysis
The recent decline in gold prices aligns with positive news out of the Middle East. Specifically, reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Wednesday appeared to ease immediate geopolitical tensions, dampening gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, this relief was short-lived as new reports emerged of escalating conflicts in Aleppo, Syria, suggesting that the broader geopolitical risks remain unresolved.
Adding to the complexity is the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, which continues to exert a strain on market sentiment. This multifaceted geopolitical backdrop leaves investors cautious, even as gold temporarily loses some of its safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (DXY) remains in a consolidation phase, creating a mixed environment for gold prices. The U.S. holiday is expected to result in low liquidity, which can amplify price swings and lead to unpredictable movements. Traders should remain vigilant, as thin market conditions often exacerbate reactions to news or technical signals.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, gold is trading within a well-defined range-bound channel, exhibiting a "flat" structure. This presents opportunities for range-based trading strategies, focusing on key levels of support and resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
Local Channel (H1):
Resistance: $2,660
Support: $2,618
Global Channel (D1):
Resistance: $2,689 - $2,710
Support: $2,605
At present, gold appears to be gravitating towards liquidity zones above its current price. If the price tests the key resistance zone ($2,660 - $2,689), a potential false breakout could trigger selling pressure, leading to a retracement toward the lower boundary of the flat range.
Market Scenario and Strategy
Range-Bound Trading:
With gold confined within these well-established channels, traders can consider range trading strategies. Buying near support levels (e.g., $2,618 or $2,605) and selling near resistance levels (e.g., $2,660 or $2,689) could yield favorable risk-to-reward outcomes.
Volatility Risk:
Given the low-liquidity environment, sudden price spikes are a distinct possibility. It’s crucial to use tight stop-loss orders to mitigate risks in case of unexpected breakouts or breakdowns.
Focus on False Breakouts:
A false breakout above key resistance levels could signal an impending decline. If gold fails to hold above $2,660 or $2,689 and consolidates below these levels, it could be a precursor to a move back towards the lower boundary of the flat at $2,618 or $2,605.
Long-Term Perspective:
For longer-term traders, the global channel on the D1 timeframe offers broader reference points. A sustained break above $2,710 could indicate the resumption of a bullish trend, while a breakdown below $2,605 might open the door to deeper declines.
Conclusion
Gold’s price trajectory is currently shaped by a delicate interplay of geopolitical factors, technical levels, and liquidity constraints. While the immediate decline to $2,620 reflects short-term relief in geopolitical tensions, the broader risks and low-liquidity conditions suggest that volatility is far from over.
Traders should maintain a cautious and adaptive approach, leveraging the well-defined range for short-term opportunities while remaining alert to the potential for sudden, exaggerated price movements. As always, sound risk management remains paramount in navigating this complex landscape.
XAUUSD - Mining in China Vs GoldGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its Neroli channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the limited supply and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the gold neroli movement will provide us with the next opportunity to buy it.
Chinese officials have announced the discovery of a huge deposit of high-quality gold ore, estimated to be worth around $83 billion, and may be the largest known deposit of the precious metal in the world.
Chinese scientists have discovered a "supergiant" deposit of high-quality gold ore near some of the country's existing gold mines. This massive deposit, which could be the largest single reservoir of this precious metal remaining anywhere on Earth, is worth billions of dollars.
Representatives of the Geological Bureau of Hunan Province (GBHP) told Chinese state media on November 20 that the new deposits were discovered in the Wangu gold field in northeastern Hunan province. Workers identified more than 40 gold veins containing about 330 tons of gold down to a depth of 6,600 feet (2,000 meters). However, using 3D computer models, mining experts have predicted that as much as 1,100 tons of gold – roughly eight times the weight of the Statue of Liberty – may be hidden as deep as 9,800 feet (3,000 meters). If true, the total reserves are likely to be worth about 600 billion yuan ($83 billion).
Mark Chandler, referring to the poor performance of gold after the recent drop, said: "The price of gold has not yet recovered even half of its decline and remains below the level of $2,663.40. If the U.S. employment report at the end of next week is stronger than expected (with around 200,000 new jobs forecast), speculation about a Fed rate cut in December is likely to ease. This can help strengthen the dollar and interest rates. However, US policies that threaten to derail the international order have encouraged some foreign central banks to continue hoarding more gold.
Employment data will be the centerpiece of the economic calendar next week and is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of markets. This set of reports includes JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the key nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Each of these reports can provide clues about the state of the labor market and the Federal Reserve's future decisions.
Along with these employment data, ISM purchasing managers' indicators are also in the focus of traders' attention. The index of the production sector is published on Monday and the index of the service sector is published on Wednesday. Additionally, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index, an important measure of economic sentiment and consumer purchasing power, will be released on Friday.
Wednesday will be a key opportunity for markets to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of the Federal Reserve's media silence. Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated conversation at the New York Times DealBook, an event that is likely to provide clues about the Fed's future policy.
DXY. Technical analysisHello traders and investors!
The seller has returned the price to the range on the weekly timeframe (see the related post). The price is now below the upper boundary of the range at 106.952.
We are monitoring the 106.083 level.
If the buyer breaks through and defends it, it would be reasonable to look for buying opportunities.
However, if the seller defends this level, selling will be the priority.
You can use the 4-hour timeframe for monitoring.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
AUDUSD TO 0.653000 TOMORROW??Trading Plan
1. Baseline Scenario :
- Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, with a 66.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This expectation is driven by the Fed's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75% and ongoing efforts to support maximum employment and achieve the 2% inflation target.
- Short Term Sentiment Bias : Dovish. Current sentiment is driven by the recent decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.2%, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts and stability under the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Additionally, the PCE inflation data aligning with expectations has reinforced the view that the Fed's current policy stance is appropriate.
2. Risk Event Baseline :
- Market Expectations:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 47.7 | Previous: 46.5
- ISM Manufacturing Prices: Forecast: 55.2 | Previous: 54.8
3. Surprise Scenarios :
- Negative Surprise: 7If the ISM Manufacturing PMI or ISM Manufacturing Prices data come in below expectations, it could lead to further USD selling pressure. This scenario supports long positions on AUD/USD, as the AUD is likely to strengthen against a weakening USD.
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support level which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 106.06
1st Support: 104.65
1st Resistance: 107.50
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Dollar Currency Index DXY Predicts Massive Crypto Bull RunHello, Skyrexians!
In crypto trading and investment it's vital to not only analyze some particular assets, but also macro charts. We have already considered the Bitcoin Dominance chart to predict potential altseason in this article . Today we have even more important asset, the TVC:DXY , which reflects in which type of assets investors are about to be in. When crisis happens investors are scared, selling risky assets and buy dollar. In the worthy times investor are greedy to risky assets and dollar currency index decreases. Today we will try to explain why DXY is about to crush giving liquidity to risky assets like our favorite crypto.
Let's take a look at the monthly time frame. It looks like DXY has ended the super cycle of any degree and now is printing correction. Waves A and B are likely to be finished already in this correction. The most impulsive wave C is incoming soon. To measure the targets we can use the Fibonacci retracement for the entire Elliott Waves cycle. Area between 0.5 and 0.61 is going to be our target. That's why we are waiting DXY between 88 and 93.
Inside this area we plan to wait for the green dot on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator which works great in the past. Important note here is that you have to disable MFI filter on this indicator to work correctly on DXY. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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DXY Is Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 105.777.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 108.336 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDCAD Possible LongsUSDCAD Top Down Analysis
M1 : Break through the Previous Monthly High and Also took
Massive Liquidity on Left
W1 : Took out the Massive Liquidity of Left and Reversed Back
D1 : Price pulled back to Daily IMB and Market has shifted on 4H
4H : Market Structure Shift (Bullish)
Narrative :
* Market has Take big liquidity on the left side on Monthly
And Weekly Price Action
* 4H Price has been shifted from bearish to bullish and also has retraced
To 50%. Long tread possible targeting weak high
USD/CHF - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. FX:USDCHF
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8689
2nd Support – 0.8619
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.