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Surging Dollar Spurs Jump in Corporate FX HedgingThe relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is sending ripples of concern through the global economy, and businesses are taking notice. Faced with a strengthening greenback, corporations are increasingly turning to foreign exchange (FX) hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on their bottom lines. This surge in hedging activity reflects a growing awareness of the risks associated with currency volatility and a proactive approach to protecting profits in an increasingly uncertain global landscape. The Dollar's Dominance The U.S. dollar has been on a tear, appreciating significantly against a basket of other major currencies. This surge is driven by a confluence of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and the relative strength of the U.S. economy. While a strong dollar can have some benefits, such as lower import costs, it also poses significant challenges for multinational corporations.1 Impact on Corporate Earnings For companies that generate revenue in foreign currencies but report earnings in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar can create a significant headwind. When foreign revenues are converted back into dollars, they are worth less than they were before the dollar's appreciation. This can lead to lower reported earnings, even if the company's underlying business performance remains strong. Conversely, companies that import goods priced in dollars but sell them in other currencies see their profit margins squeezed as their input costs rise. The Hedging Imperative In this environment of heightened currency risk, FX hedging has become a crucial tool for corporations.2 Hedging involves using financial instruments, such as forward contracts, options, or swaps, to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.3 This allows companies to insulate themselves from adverse currency movements and provides greater certainty about their future cash flows and earnings.4 Surge in Hedging Activity Market data suggests a significant uptick in corporate FX hedging activity. Treasurers and finance departments are increasingly prioritizing currency risk management, recognizing that even small fluctuations in exchange rates can have a material impact on their financial results. This increased focus on hedging is driven by several factors: • Heightened Volatility: The dollar's rapid appreciation has created significant volatility in currency markets, making it more difficult for companies to predict future exchange rates. This uncertainty underscores the need for hedging strategies to protect against unexpected currency swings. • Earnings Protection: As mentioned earlier, a strong dollar can erode corporate earnings. Hedging allows companies to mitigate this risk and ensure that their financial performance is not unduly impacted by currency fluctuations.5 • Strategic Planning: Hedging provides greater predictability in cash flows, which is essential for strategic planning and investment decisions.6 By locking in exchange rates, companies can make more informed decisions about future investments and expansion plans.7 • Shareholder Expectations: Investors are increasingly scrutinizing companies' currency risk management practices. Companies that proactively hedge against currency risks are often seen as more prudent and better managed, which can be a positive factor for investor confidence. Types of Hedging Strategies Companies employ a variety of hedging strategies depending on their specific needs and risk tolerance.8 Some common approaches include: • Forward Contracts: These contracts obligate a company to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date.9 This is a straightforward way to lock in exchange rates for future transactions. • Options: Currency options give a company the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price on or before a certain date.10 Options provide flexibility and allow companies to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting their downside risk.11 • Currency Swaps: These agreements involve exchanging principal and/or interest payments in one currency for those in another currency.12 Swaps can be used to manage currency risk associated with long-term debt or investments.13 Challenges and Considerations While hedging can be an effective way to manage currency risk, it's not without its challenges. Hedging strategies can be complex and require specialized expertise. Furthermore, hedging involves costs, such as premiums paid for options or fees for forward contracts.14 Companies need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of hedging and choose strategies that are appropriate for their specific circumstances. Looking Ahead The strong dollar is likely to remain a significant factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. As such, corporate FX hedging is expected to remain a priority for multinational companies. Companies that proactively manage their currency risk are better positioned to navigate the challenges of a strong dollar environment and protect their earnings from adverse currency movements.15 The current surge in hedging activity reflects a growing recognition of this reality and a proactive approach to mitigating currency risk in an increasingly interconnected world. As global economic conditions evolve, companies will need to remain vigilant and adapt their hedging strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately protected from currency volatility.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Levels discussed on Livestream 6th Feb 20256th Feb 2025 DXY: Retracing from 107 support area, look for reaction between 107.90 and 108.30, above 108.30 could trade up to 109. NZDUSD: Sell 0.5640 SL 20 TP 50 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 30 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6330) GBPUSD: Straddle Rates Decision Pending Sell 1.2430 SL 30 TP 100 Buy 1.2510 SL 30 TP 100 EURUSD: Sell 1.0320 SL 30 TP 90 USDJPY: Buy 153.65 SL 40 TP 90 EURJPY: Sell 157.75 SL 40 TP 120 GBPJPY: Sell 189.70 SL 50 TP 145 USDCHF: Sell 0.90 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.8975) USDCAD: Buy 1.44 SL 30 TP 60 XAUUSD: Retracing, could test 2840 (50%) and bounce higher to 2900
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
t-bonds x alt season.t-bonds are primed for lift-off. we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure. i'm building a case that says otherwise. the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market. it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016. most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020. i’m saying it started in 2016,,, and if i’m right, it just ended. --- as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year. normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other. not this time. this time, they move together. 1:1. why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked. quantitative easing is coming back. liquidity will expand. the global liquidity index will rise. the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy. --- tldr; - rate cuts incoming - making t-bonds go up - quantitative easing - nukes the dxy - making stocks go up - risk-on environment returns - risk assets go parabolic - alt season is triggered. 🌙
CBOT:ZB1!
by notoriousbids
1
DXY: rebounding at the bottom of the Megaphone.The U.S. Dollar Index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.335, MACD = 0.03, ADX = 16.853) as it took a turnaround on the HL trendline of the 2 month Bullish Megaphone. The 4H MACD will form a Bullish Cross today and once the 4H MA50 breaks, we will have the buy trigger for the new bullish wave. We expect this to test at least the LH trendline (if not the R1 Zone), which is where January's wave peaked, marginally over the 0.786 Fibonacci. Go long (TP = 109.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102. I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal. Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull. I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely. FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
by mooniron
1
XAUUSD - Where will gold go?!US President Donald Trump has raised serious concerns among global economies and financial markets by threatening to impose punitive tariffs on the country’s largest trading partners. So far, he has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, delayed the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and indicated that the European Union will be the next target of his trade policies. However, beyond the political hype, tariffs have important practical and economic effects. Tariffs are actually a type of tax on imported goods that, like other taxes, are a source of revenue for the government. Many countries impose these taxes to protect domestic production, as tariffs increase the price of foreign goods and therefore strengthen the competitiveness of domestic products. Trump, however, is using this tool not only to support domestic industries but also as leverage in his foreign policy. One example of this policy is his decision to postpone the imposition of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which was made after the two countries agreed to implement stricter measures to control immigration and combat drug trafficking at their common borders. Tariffs were once a major source of revenue for the US government, but their share has declined significantly over the past century. According to an analysis of official data by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of last year, tariffs accounted for less than 3 percent of total federal revenue. If the tariffs were to be permanently imposed, as Trump initially proposed, the total additional costs to American importers over the next decade could reach $1.1 trillion. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that the policy could lead to tax increases of up to $110 billion by 2025 alone. The think tank also estimates that tariffs on China, which began under Trump and expanded under Biden, currently generate $77 billion in revenue for the U.S. government annually. Economic studies show that ultimately, American consumers and businesses will bear the brunt of these tariffs. While some foreign producers may lower their prices or accept some of the costs from American importers, in many cases, companies will raise the prices of their goods to compensate for the additional costs, and those costs will be passed on to consumers. A look at recent U.S.-China trade relations provides a clear example of the impact of tariffs. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, and industrial engines. The policy has reduced China’s share of U.S. imports from about 20 percent in 2018 to 14 percent by 2023. Meanwhile, official demand for gold continues to play a major role in the precious metal’s market, keeping prices near record levels. It’s not just emerging market central banks buying gold to protect their currencies. Krishan Gopal, senior analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at the World Gold Council, pointed to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a social media post that showed Taiwan’s central bank increased its gold reserves in October. According to the report, the official gold reserves of the Central Bank of Taiwan reached 424 tons three months ago. Despite the recent volatility in the gold market, analysts believe that the continued purchases of central banks will continue to be the main factor in maintaining the bullish trend of the precious metal. Joy Yang, global head of index product management at MarketVector Indexes, said that with the increasing geopolitical uncertainties caused by Trump’s economic policies and the slogan of “America First”, central banks are looking for more neutral assets to preserve the value of their reserves. According to him, these policies of the Trump administration have made gold a more attractive option for countries that want to protect themselves against economic risks and reduce their dependence on the US dollar and Treasuries. Katie Kriski, commodity market strategist at Invesco, also believes that the high demand for gold by central banks continues to create significant value for retail investors. He also predicted that this trend will not stop in the near future, citing the People’s Bank of China as one of the most prominent examples of this behavior in the global gold market. Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone for gold will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Will the dollar return to the bullish trajectory?!US President Donald Trump has once again shown his mastery of political bluffs. He pushed negotiations with Mexico and Canada to the brink of crisis, there were numerous reports of increased tariffs and tougher measures, but in the end, he canceled everything. Instead, only a few symbolic measures were announced at the border, many of which had been discussed before. Now it seems that this scenario will be repeated again in the next 30 days. That this was a bluff was predictable from the beginning, but it was a challenging experience for analysts and markets. If you didn’t have a moment of doubt during this process, you probably weren’t paying close enough attention. But that’s the Trump strategy: in the market you have to have a strong belief that you are on the right track. When everyone is panicking, you have to stay calm and watch the process from the outside. The trade war has caused significant volatility in financial markets, and it’s not easy to make a profit in this environment. One of the main challenges was the timing. Last week, Trump announced that Mexico and Canada could do nothing to prevent the tariffs. But just days later, the two countries made almost no concessions and no tariffs were imposed. The signs of a shift in direction were already clear. The most important sign was the comments of Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, who indicated that the talks were changing direction. He shifted the focus of the discussion to the problem of drugs and fentanyl, a shift that indicated that the Trump administration was looking to declare a victory in the negotiations. When even CNBC analysts noticed the change, it was clear that the direction of the talks had changed. “It doesn’t seem like you believe that these tariffs are going to happen, or that they will last very long,” one of the network’s hosts told Hassett in an interview. How did the financial markets react? The currency market was one of the best indicators to understand developments. While the stock markets were volatile, the trends in Forex were more transparent and occurred without random disturbances. The focus of attention on financial markets today is the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, starting the new year. The decision will not come as a surprise, as OIS market data shows that traders have priced in a cut with a probability of around 92%. The cut will take the Bank of England’s policy rate to 4.50%, while policymakers continue to gradually reduce interest rates. However, the most important part of the decision will be the central bank’s statement and tone. The results of the December vote showed that there is a division among BoE policymakers. Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor had voted for a 25 basis point cut earlier in the same meeting. The Bank of England continues to insist that “a gradual approach to removing monetary policy constraints remains appropriate.” This will remain the watchword for monetary policy today, even if interest rate cuts are implemented. But economic uncertainties remain. The December inflation report showed that price pressures have eased, but the trend is not sustainable. Analysts have made a few key points: • The decline in inflation has been driven largely by falling service prices. • But a closer look suggests that the decline may be temporary. Rob Wood of Pantheon Economics explained that the ONS’s calculation method has led to a drop in airline prices on December 10. The drop came before the Christmas break, when prices would normally have been expected to rise. Overall, the disinflationary trend remains unsustainable. With core inflation still above 3%, the Bank of England remains committed to keeping price pressures in check. Future Forecast: • The Bank of England will cut interest rates today as expected, but will emphasize that future actions will depend on economic data. • Traders do not expect interest rate cuts in February and March, but have forecast the next cut for May 2025. • In total, interest rate cuts for 2025 are estimated at around 83 basis points. Since the Bank of England is unlikely to make any clear commitments on the future course of its policies, the impact of this decision on the value of the pound and government bonds (Gilts) is expected to be limited. The GBPUSD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be bought within the specified demand zone.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - How far will silver go?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we can see a demand range. We can buy in that range with an appropriate reward to risk. Gold demand in China is showing signs of a strong rebound, even as the physical flow of gold from the UK to the United States continues. Meanwhile, analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals have indicated that there is evidence suggesting that the growing demand for silver in the solar industry may have peaked. Last week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank acted in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, while the European Central Bank implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut. Regarding silver, Heraeus analysts questioned whether China could sustain its rapid growth in the solar energy sector. They reported, “The total installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) panels in China reached 886.66 gigawatts in 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year. This 277-gigawatt expansion exceeded industry forecasts and surpassed China’s own 2024 capacity projections by 17 gigawatts. However, while this growth is remarkable, it falls short of the record 54% increase seen in 2023, following a 28% rise in 2021. This trend suggests that China may be approaching its peak photovoltaic capacity growth.” The analysts also noted that, over the past two years, rapid solar energy growth has been driven by unprecedentedly low photovoltaic module prices, largely due to intense competition among manufacturers. They explained, “However, in 2025, polysilicon producers (GCL and Tongwei) have agreed to limit their production, while solar module manufacturers (Jinko, JA Solar, and Canadian Solar) have reached a minimum pricing consensus to restore profitability. This could drive up the price of solar modules, leading to higher capital costs for projects.” They added, “Projections indicate that 232 million ounces of silver were used in 495 gigawatts of photovoltaic applications in 2024. If installation rates remain steady year-over-year, solar demand for silver could reach a record 270 million ounces in 2025, an increase of 39 million ounces.” Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett announced that the Trump administration is focusing on reducing the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rather than the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate cuts. Over the weekend, Trump remarked that the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision not to cut interest rates was a “good” move, indicating his emphasis on 10-year yields. This policy could contribute to financial stability and help control inflation. However, some analysts have warned that Trump’s measures, along with spending cuts by his ally Elon Musk, may not have a significant impact, as a large portion of U.S. government expenditures remains allocated to healthcare, social security, and defense. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, economists at Morgan Stanley no longer anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in March. They now predict only one rate cut in 2025, expected in June. As Morgan Stanley stated, “The implementation of tariffs earlier than expected is likely to halt the downward inflation trend at a higher level, making any short-term rate cuts impossible.”
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY Rejection at Key Resistance – Potential Drop AheadThis chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 4-hour timeframe shows a strong rejection from the highlighted resistance zone around 109.800–110.000. Key Observations: - Rejection at Resistance: Price attempted to break above but faced strong selling pressure, leading to a rejection. - Possible Downtrend Formation:** The price could now move lower, targeting the 1st target zone (~109.100–109.136) and potentially the **2nd target zone (~107.500–107.480)** if the bearish momentum continues. - Break of Structure (BoS) & Change of Character (ChoCh): The previous market structure shifts indicate potential reversals, supporting the idea of a bearish move. Conclusion: A pullback from resistance suggests a possible downside move. If price fails to reclaim the resistance zone, a sell-off towards the marked targets seems likely. Watch for confirmation near the 1st target to assess continuation or reversal.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Levels discussed on Livestream 5th Feb 20255th Feb 2025 DXY: Trading lower, needs to break 107.50 to retest 107 round number support level. NZDUSD: Wait and look for reaction at 0.57 resistance area AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6325) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2530 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.0440 SL 30 TP 100 USDJPY: Looking for reaction at current support level. Buy 154.10 or Sell 152.30 (SL 40 TP 120) EURJPY: Buy 160.10 SL 60 TP 120 GBPJPY: Nothing for now USDCHF: Downside to 0.8980, no H1 setup USDCAD: Sell 1.4280 SL 40 TP 150 XAUUSD: Hit my TP at 2865, could retrace to 2841 before trading higher again to maybe 2900
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Could the price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 107.14 1st Support: 106.57 1st Resistance: 108.11 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
1
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)I said on yesterday’s update that during extreme market volatility, Gold can possibly push up towards $2,868 - $2,883. This morning we saw that extreme move up & Gold has now aggressively rejected our $2,882 resistance zone🔥 Even though more upside MIGHT happen, overall Wave 5 is close to completion. Look left on the chart & you’ll see Wave 5 is now above our Wave 3 high of $2,790 which formed in November 2024. The 5 wave bullish cycle is complete or close to completion.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1