NAS100 - Nasdaq is setting a new ATH!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the marked trend line, which is also intersecting the demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq.
At the start of the week, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. He also stated that any country imposing tariffs on American products would face reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his congressional testimony, emphasized that the central bank is in no hurry to implement further rate cuts. Additionally, data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in higher than expected, further supporting the dollar.
Although the dollar experienced a slight correction on Thursday and Friday, these factors, combined with a strong non-farm payroll report for January, led investors to anticipate a rate cut of only 30 basis points for the year. This outlook is more hawkish than the Federal Reserve’s own forecast of a 50-basis-point reduction. In other words, traders in financial markets have fully priced in just a single 0.25% rate cut by December.
Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, revealed in an interview with CBS’s Face The Nation that he meets regularly with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He stressed that these meetings are not intended to influence interest rate policy and that Powell’s independence is respected, although the President’s views are still conveyed.
Hassett also pointed out that long-term yields have declined, with a 40-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating market expectations of lower inflation.
Retail sales data showed a 0.9% decline following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December. Out of 13 reported categories, nine recorded declines, with the largest drops observed in automobiles, sporting goods, and furniture stores.
Following a tense week filled with impactful economic news, the upcoming week is expected to be quieter and shorter, as U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day.
Key economic events for the week include the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Tuesday, the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, and U.S. housing starts and building permits data on Wednesday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Finally, Friday will see the publication of preliminary S&P Flash PMI reports and existing home sales data.
DXY
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 107.51
1st Support: 105.72
1st Resistance: 109.67
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DXY Weekly Chart: "The Bull-trap Breakout"The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at the top of its trading range, which has been in play since 2023 on the weekly timeframe. This presents a solid bearish setup, as the index is likely to reverse and trade back into the range.
This trade idea has been in play since September of 2024 when we were still trading at the BOTTOM of the rang e
EUR/USD on high time frame
"Regarding EUR/USD on high time frames, as per my recent analysis, the price has shifted towards a bullish momentum. I anticipate the price to surpass the mitigated order block on the 4-hour chart and reach the 1/1 price zone on the weekly and daily time frames. However, this analysis would be invalidated if the price closes below 1.02 on the daily time frame."
If you have any specific questions or if you need further assistance with your text, please let me know!
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons.
- Tariffs speculation
- Inflation data higher than expected
- US M2 money supply increase
- US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop
Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
DXY Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is going down and
The index made a bearish
Breakout of the key level
Of 107.400 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Now bearish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (UPDATE)Gold prices have plummeted today, down 460 PIPS so far. Price remains within a range if you look at price on the left, so I'll be keeping an eye to see how market closes & if price will push back up again.
If price does push up, I do have a possible buy scenario in play. For now we just let price do its thing & create a structure.
Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊
Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109.
A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely.
Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93.
🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals.
⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
The EURUSD pair reacted bullishly after touching the support zone, leading to an upward movement. This support level aligns with an ascending trendline, adding to its significance.
Currently, the price is struggling with a key resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this level would generate a bullish signal, potentially driving the price toward the next target level.
However, if the support zone is broken, the bullish scenario would be invalidated.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
GOLD → Waiting for news. What next?OANDA:XAUUSD during the adjustment period, we are monitoring key risk zones from which the trend may continue or the correction could extend longer...
The focus today is on the scheduled US CPI data release, which could provide new momentum for gold.
Markets remain concerned about Trump's tariffs potentially triggering inflationary pressures, which could allow the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance.
The US dollar strengthened significantly following speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, putting pressure on gold prices for the second consecutive day on Wednesday.
However, Trump also hinted at considering additional tariffs on goods, raising concerns about a global trade war and serving as a catalyst for this safe-haven precious metal.
Gold's next movement depends on inflation data and Trump's tariff levels. If CPI exceeds forecasts, the dollar will strengthen and gold prices will decline. Conversely, weak data could support the metal's growth.
Resistance levels: 2898, 2911, 2930
Support levels: 2880, 2870, 2855
From a technical perspective, breaking above the support level at 2880 indicates the market remains bullish and quite aggressive. If buyers maintain prices above 2880-2885, then in the short and medium term, we should expect prices to rise to 2930-2950.
If gold breaks below 2880 and stays under this zone, market liquidation could occur and prices may fall to 2855, 2848, after which we can expect gold's growth to resume.
DeGRAM | DXY retest of supportDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is retesting the support level, which previously acted as a rebound point.
The chart keeps the descending structure.
We expect a correction in the channel after fixing above the important psychological level of 107.
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"Gold Bullish Continuation: Waiting for Retest and Buy ConfirmatThis XAUUSD 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. A major support zone has been identified, and price is expected to retest this area before a potential continuation to the upside. The weak high suggests liquidity above, making it a potential target. The analysis indicates waiting for a retest at the support zone and confirming a buying opportunity before targeting higher levels. OANDA:XAUUSD