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Dollar Down and Crypto PumpsHoping for DXY to drop down to the lower range and allow liquidity to keep flowing into crypto so we can keep pumping. Also watching BTC.D closely, if this breaks down and makes a new lower low then we can say with a lot more probability that Altcoin Season or Alt season is truely upon us. Lets watch and wait! I am in a few positions, XRP/DOGE/VIRTUALS ready for the action. Not financial advice, lots of volatility and risk out there, watch out for the bulls too.
TVC:DXYLong
by NFVeej
XAUUSD - Gold will reach $2,700!?Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of failure of the drawn trend line, we can witness the continuation of downward trend to demand zone, and in that zone, we can buy with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the upward movement of gold and its reaching the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. Gold price volatility remains high as the precious metal reacts to changes in geopolitical instability caused by the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. However, Nitesh Shah, head of commodity research and macroeconomics at WisdomTree, still predicts that gold's upward trend will continue in 2025. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Shah stated that he expects the US dollar to depreciate in 2025, which will benefit gold prices. He added that although Trump's policies can help strengthen the dollar at the beginning of the year, it will be difficult to maintain this trend; Because the government budget deficit will continue. "Most likely, debt will increase and that should put downward pressure on the dollar," he said. Meanwhile, Shah believes the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting policies could help lower bond yields, another factor driving gold prices higher. He said in his recent research note: "Now that we are back in the cycle of interest rate cuts, bond yields have fallen and investors are ready to buy gold again." Although Shah is optimistic about gold, in his opinion, the price of this precious metal will have limits to growth in the coming year. He predicts that gold prices will reach around $2,850 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2024. "The current situation is still relatively positive for gold," Shah said. "Originally, I was projecting $3,000, but according to my updated modeling, to reach that goal, bond yields would need to fall significantly from current levels." On the other hand, the Bank of America (BofA) in its recent report has pointed out four key aspects of the future US government policies that can reduce the demand for gold in the short term. These factors include the increase in interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar. However, these negative factors do not in any way affect Bank of America's positive long-term outlook for gold, with gold prices expected to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Deregulation: Deregulation policies in the energy and financial services sectors could increase interest rates, which would make gold less attractive. Fiscal policy: Broader and longer tax cuts could boost short-term economic growth and push interest rates higher, posing challenges for gold. Tariffs: The increase in tariffs on China and other major countries can lead to pressure on the currencies of emerging markets, and this may reduce gold purchases by central banks. Fed policy: If economic growth and tariffs push up inflation, the Fed may stop the rate-cutting cycle, which would reduce the appeal of gold as a safe haven. Impact on gold demand: In the short term, there is a possibility of reducing the desire of investors to buy gold due to the mentioned policies. Central banks in emerging countries may reduce gold purchases due to currency pressures from tariff risks. The long-term outlook remains positive: Structural demand from central banks and strategic investors underpins a positive long-term outlook for gold. The attractiveness of gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, economic instabilities and possible inflationary pressures remains. Conclusion: Although near-term policies under the incoming US administration, including stronger economic growth, higher inflation and a stronger dollar, pose significant headwinds for gold, Bank of America maintains its forecast of $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025. . This long-term optimism stems from structural and cyclical factors that support gold demand in a challenging policy environment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis is a short idea on AUDUSD. I'm anticipating lower prices towards a higher timeframe ascending trendline, after price took out buyside liquidity from a descending trendline and then displacing lower. The trendline in the image is one isolated to around these timeframes, and not the HTF narrative. Besides that, I'm basing it off a Daily iFVG and Daily -OB. First target is the most recent low that price made. Stoploss at immediate swing high, but completely possible for price to come up during a high impact news event to take out the buyside liquidity above. Either a sweep, or this idea is completely wrong. Good luck and safe trading. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
2
USD/JPY - H4 - Channel Breakout The USD/JPY pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Breakout pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. USDJPY Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.00, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 151.30 2nd Support – 149.82 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
28
Brent - oil waiting for regional stability!Brent oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, we will look for positions to buy oil. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the downward trend. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. He expressed gratitude to French President Emmanuel Macron and emphasized that Israel did not initiate this war, nor were the Lebanese people seeking conflict. Biden stated that Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon but stressed that lasting security cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield. The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that Brent crude oil prices face short-term risks that could push them to around $80 per barrel in the first half of 2025, assuming Iranian oil supply drops by 1 million barrels per day due to stricter sanctions. In contrast, the bank expects medium-term risks to Brent prices to tilt downward due to high spare capacity in the market. Goldman Sachs also estimated that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 if a 10% tariff is imposed or OPEC increases its supply in 2025. Separately, Bloomberg reported that China’s small and private refineries are paying higher prices for Iranian oil due to reduced shipments and fewer offers. These refineries have been purchasing light Iranian crude for December delivery at smaller discounts compared to ICE Brent benchmarks. Limited shipping availability and delays have constrained Iran’s oil exports to China. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a meeting with OPEC’s Secretary-General, stated that Russia intends to strengthen its cooperation with OPEC. Novak highlighted that the energy market remains under significant pressure, with price volatility being one of the key challenges. He stressed the importance of closer collaboration between Russia and OPEC to address these issues, asserting that joint efforts can contribute to greater stability in the energy market. Novak also revealed that Russia is preparing to lift its gasoline export ban, with the necessary documentation expected to be finalized soon, although no exact timeline was provided. He pointed to the market’s balance achieved through OPEC+ actions and quota implementation, emphasizing the importance of continued measures to ensure stability. According to the latest JODI data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day in September, reaching 5.75 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months. This rise in exports likely resulted from reduced direct crude oil consumption for power generation as the country’s hottest months came to an end. JODI data showed that direct crude burning fell by 296,000 barrels per day in September, reaching approximately 518,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw a slight decrease in oil production in September, down by 17,000 barrels per day to 8.98 million barrels per day. Refinery throughput in the country reached 2.756 million barrels per day in September, the highest in four months and 35,000 barrels per day higher than in August. This production level aligns with Saudi Arabia’s summer commitment to maintain output at “around 9 million barrels per day,” consistent with OPEC+ cuts and a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have postponed their planned production increases from December 2024 to January 2025. The group now plans to begin increasing supply in January, initially by 180,000 barrels per day for the first month. Saudi Arabia is expected to deliver less crude oil to China, the world’s largest oil importer, in December. Trade sources told Reuters last week that weak demand in China has prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce its shipments to the country.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Will the Dollar Index Redefine Global Economic Equilibrium?In the intricate dance of international trade and geopolitical strategy, the Dollar Index emerges as a critical compass navigating the turbulent waters of economic uncertainty. The article illuminates how this financial barometer reflects the profound implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. administration, revealing a complex interplay of currencies, trade relationships, and global market sentiments that extend far beyond mere numerical fluctuations. The proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China represent more than economic policy—they are strategic maneuvers with potential seismic shifts in global trade dynamics. As the Dollar Index climbs, reflecting the U.S. dollar's strength, it simultaneously exposes the delicate balance of international economic relationships. The potential consequences ripple through supply chains, consumer markets, and diplomatic corridors, challenging the post-World War II trade paradigm and forcing nations to recalibrate their economic strategies in real time. Beyond the immediate market reactions, these developments signal a broader philosophical question about economic sovereignty and interdependence. The tariff proposals challenge long-established multilateral agreements, potentially accelerating a transformation in how nations perceive economic collaboration. While the immediate impact is visible in currency fluctuations and market volatility, the long-term implications could reshape global economic architecture, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. dollar's role as the predominant global reserve currency and testing the resilience of international trade networks.
INDEX:DXYLong
by signalmastermind
EURUSD → Correction after false breakdown before further fallFX:EURUSD is taking a chance amid the local correction of the dollar. The currency pair can test the local highs. But! You need to be careful as there will be a lot of news today. Fundamental background is generally negative. (Trump's victory, tariffs for European export goods, lower interest rates and so on). This all accompanies the global and local downtrends. Accordingly, in our case, since a false support breakout is forming on the chart, we should wait for a retest of resistance and reversal patterns to further consider selling attempts with the purpose of further decline. Resistance levels: 1.0606, 1.065, 1.076 Support levels: 1.0517, 1.044, 1.033 Accordingly, we follow the nearest resistance, if bears behave aggressively on the background of the news, the price will continue to fall from these areas Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
USDJPY lowered due to the retreating dollar Increasing fatigue from strong dollar performance and reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have halted the dollar's ascent. The Fed's indication of a potential end to quantitative tightening(QT) due to worries about declining market liquidity also limited the dollar's gains. JP Morgan forecasts that the Fed might conclude the entire QT in the coming months. Meanwhile, Japan's October services inflation stood near 3%, increasing the likelihood of the BoJ's interest rate hikes. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted ongoing wage-led inflation, supporting the central bank's capacity to raise rates. After breaking below the ascending channel’s lower bound, USDJPY fell to 152.80. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, indicating a shift to bearish momentum. If USDJPY breaks below the support at 152.70, the price may fall further to 150.00. Conversely, if USDJPY reenters within the channel and rises above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 156.70.
by inkicho_exness
GBPUSD SHORT TO $1.24300 (UPDATE)Once again overnight (Asia session) GU shot back up again towards our Wave 5 entry zone, rejected it again & is running 70 PIPS in profit so far. Me & my Gold Vault Academy students understand that Wave 5 being the FINAL IMPULSE WAVE, means that wave will move slowly & trap in a lot of early buyers before it reaches its target. As an Elliott Wave trader, you need to learn to be generous with your SL as we are long term traders trading the higher TF’s, not scalpers👌
Short
by BA_Investments
GOLD → A break of 2600 will make buyers panicFX:XAUUSD is returning to the sell-off phase due to the change of fundamental background. Buyers are unwinding their positions and the price is entering the sell-off zone The main reason for the fall is the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The first rumors appeared early Monday morning and the market reacted accordingly. Everyone is still waiting for the actual confirmation of the rumors. Also Trump is beginning to hint at increased tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. Active actions will start in January, after the inauguration of the new US president. But, the risks are still high due to the escalated conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Technically, gold is returning to the channel, marking a strong resistance at 2632 and 2620. (a retest of the zone is possible before a further fall). Resistance levels: 2632, 2620 Support levels: 2605 A price consolidation below 2620 or below 2605 will strengthen the sell-off phase. The fundamental background is weak, which increases the pressure of bears. In the mid-term, I expect the decline to continue after the breakdown of 2605-2600 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
19
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)After a strong 1,000+ PIPS sell off yesterday, bearish momentum is still holding strong on Gold & keeping prices down. Yesterday's sell off would be considered as Wave 1 of the Bearish correction, which means any minor wave 2 correction we see, this would be your chance to get into sell positions if you haven't already. I will be looking to get into further sell positions for my Gold Fund investors if market structure offers the opportunity. I will NOT be sharing my additional entries on here for free.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
GBP/USD - H1 - Broadening Wedge The GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Broadening Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2532, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2442 2nd Support – 1.2375 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
GOLD → An unexpected shakeup. What's next? 2700 or 2600?FX:XAUUSD closed the session perfectly on Friday, hinting that it was preparing to move up to conquer the highs. But Monday morning's news shook up the market, eliminating buyers. What happened and what to expect? Gold's decline in the Asian session was due to news from the Middle East, with Israel tentatively approving a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon. But, on the other hand - the escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe, where the situation has become more complicated to some critical limits over the past few weeks. This is a two-edged sword. The market will react to any news coming from the two regions. No economic news is expected on Monday. Technically, the focus is on the sideways range of 2731 - 2660 and internal levels, among which the price may look for support.... Resistance levels: 2673, 2689, 2731 Support levels: 2660, 2643 If the price consolidates above 2673, then we should wait for a retest of 2689 (0.5 fibo). If the bulls continue to press the market, the gold may test 2721. But if the bears hold 0.5-0.7 fibo and retest 2660, then we should wait for a correction to the zones of interest and liquidity before a possible pullback Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18