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Is GBP/USD Set for a Further Rally? Let's have a look.The GBP/USD pair made a robust recovery at the beginning of the week, showcasing strength against its major competitors. This bounce-back comes after a notable decline on Friday, triggered by disappointing economic data. Specifically, the UK Retail Sales contracted at a faster-than-anticipated rate in October, and the flash S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November fell below the critical 50.0 mark for the first time since October 2023. The primary factor contributing to the Pound Sterling's resurgence appears to be strong market sentiment regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) potential for a more measured approach to policy easing compared to other Western central banks. Notably, the currency is trading within a demand zone, suggesting the potential for upward movement. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail sentiment is leaning bearish; however, similar to the EUR/USD, the opening gap might be filled, which could lead to a further decline in prices. A decline towards the 1.2400 level could present an attractive buying opportunity for those looking to acquire the Pound at a discount. Historical seasonality trends also indicate a likelihood for the GBP to appreciate in the near term. Nevertheless, I recommend waiting until Wednesday, following the release of the USD unemployment data, before making any trading decisions. Currently, my outlook remains bearish on the GBP/USD. GBP/USD GAP ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Outlook: Strong Demand and Uncertain Economic SignalsThe EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable rebound, aligning with our previous outlook as it approached a robust weekly demand zone at the onset of the new weekly candle, marked by a bullish gap. Recent data from Germany indicates a decline in the IFO Current Assessment Index, dropping to 84.3 in November from 85.7. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased slightly from 87.3 to 87.2. Despite these figures, the euro appears resilient, seemingly brushing off the negative data. On the other hand, downward pressure on the US dollar remains limited, fueled by recent economic indicators that suggest the Federal Reserve might be inclined to scale back the pace of interest rate cuts. This week’s unemployment claims data, set to be released on Wednesday, has the potential to move the markets significantly, especially if the figures come in more favorable than the forecast, which anticipates an uptick in unemployment. Interestingly, there is the possibility of an upward thrust in the weekly DXY chart, although it has yet to be confirmed by trading volumes. Given the current market dynamics, it may be prudent to hold off on making any moves until Wednesday. This will allow traders to assess potential retracement opportunities as the market may look to recover the gap created during the Asian session. EUR/USD Gap ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
XAUUSD - The rise of gold is over!?Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a corrective movement with low momentum, we can witness the continued rise and see supply zones and sell within that range with a suitable risk reward. After enduring two weeks of sharp declines following Donald Trump's election victory, the gold market bounced back with a strong bounce last week. The price of this precious metal grew in all trading sessions of the week and by Friday afternoon, with an increase of nearly 150 dollars, it once again attracted the attention of investors. Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that the Swiss Federal Customs Service released data on gold exports in October this week. "These data showed very different trends. Deliveries to China were significantly weaker at just 5 tonnes. Almost no gold was exported to Hong Kong. On the other hand, exports to India have increased. However, the export level in October was still relatively low at 11.7 tons. A little more gold than the previous month has been delivered to America. However, inflows of 30 tonnes into US-listed gold ETFs, reported by the World Gold Council (WGC), in October were higher than the 9.4 tonnes reported. The sharp increase in Swiss gold exports to the UK to 31.9 tonnes is surprising, although gold ETFs listed there recorded outflows in October, according to the World Gold Council. Darin Newsom, chief market analyst at Barchart.com, stated in his analysis of the future trend of gold: "The path of movement of gold is still upward. But due to the speed and intensity of the recent upward trend, there is a possibility of a sudden correction in the market. This risk increases due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and the end of the month." He also emphasized: "Despite this, geopolitical factors continue to play a decisive role in the market. The current chaos has overwhelmed technical analysis and Russian President Putin has not backed down from his nuclear threats. These conditions will most likely lead investors to buy gold until the end of 2024." Next week, the US economic calendar will be shorter than usual due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but several key reports will continue to be in the focus of traders. On Tuesday, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November and new home sales for October will be released in early market hours. Next, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are published. On Wednesday, key data releases will be limited to the early hours of the day due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The market will watch the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) core inflation index for October, which is one of the key indicators considered by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation. At the same time, the statistics of durable goods orders and the weekly report of unemployment claimants will also be published. Then, pending home sales figures for October will be released, which will provide a clear picture of housing market trends.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Could the price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 106.35 1st Support: 105.22 1st Resistance: 108.55 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
Gold continues rally from 2650?Dear traders, Tom here! Spot gold hit a near two-week high in the Asian session as the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited traditional safe-haven assets. The weekly uptrend appears to be unaffected by bets for a less aggressive Fed easing, continued USD buying and the prevailing risk-on environment. At the time of writing, gold is hovering around $2,683 and up 0.51% on the day. Technically, gold confirms bullishness, we are watching the resistance zone ahead after a false break of 2,686, a break would be bullish while a hold would be bearish. But in any case, the preference remains on the buyers, as interest in the metal as a hedge has returned. Medium-term target could be 2,710-2,750
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TomtradeFX
How Will a Strong Dollar Impact Emerging Forex Pairs?Persistent US dollar strength is poised to pose significant challenges for emerging market (EM) bonds and forex. As the greenback continues its upward trajectory, investors are advised to exercise caution and consider potential risks. Why a Strong Dollar Matters for Emerging Markets A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging market countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. They need to exchange their local currency for US dollars to make payments. When the dollar appreciates, it requires more of their local currency to acquire the necessary amount of dollars. Furthermore, a strong dollar can deter foreign investment in emerging markets. Investors may prefer to invest in US assets, which are perceived as safer and more stable. This can lead to capital flight from emerging markets, putting pressure on their currencies and economies. Potential Risks for Emerging Market Bonds and Forex Investors in emerging market bonds should be aware of the following risks: 1. Currency Risk: A weaker local currency can erode the value of bond investments. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies may depreciate, reducing the value of bond holdings when converted back to the investor's home currency. 2. Interest Rate Risk: Rising interest rates in the US can lead to higher borrowing costs for emerging market countries. This can increase their debt burden and make it more difficult to service their debt obligations. 3. Default Risk: In extreme cases, a strong dollar and rising interest rates can push emerging market countries to the brink of default. This can result in significant losses for bondholders. How to Mitigate Risks While the risks associated with emerging market bonds are significant, investors can take steps to mitigate them: 1. Diversification: Diversifying investments across different emerging markets can help reduce exposure to specific country risks. 2. Currency Hedging: Investors can use currency hedging strategies to protect themselves from currency fluctuations. 3. Credit Rating Analysis: Carefully analyzing the creditworthiness of issuers can help identify bonds with lower default risk. 4. Consult with Financial Advisors: Seeking advice from experienced financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help develop a suitable investment strategy. Conclusion The persistent strength of the US dollar poses a significant threat to emerging market bonds. Investors should be mindful of the risks associated with these investments and take appropriate measures to protect their portfolios. By diversifying, hedging, and conducting thorough due diligence, investors can navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar and potentially reap the rewards of emerging market growth. It is important to note that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD a local downtrend channel breakout damages sellers. The fundamental background is changing despite continued USD buying and a generally risk-off environment, which is overall positive for gold as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis. The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities. Despite the optimism for the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from the escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions are likely to consolidate for sellers before further strengthening. Technically, gold has every chance to test the boundaries of the previously broken channel, but based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue. Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
2
Interesting facts of the week: What to expect next?Hello traders and investors! The past week brought several interesting events that may impact the situation's development in the coming days. The U.S. Dollar Index has reached the upper boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 106.952. There might be an attempt to reverse the long trend, with the idea of executing the seller’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 99.807 and 99.099). The Euro against the Dollar has reached the lower boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 1.04485. There might be an attempt to reverse the short trend, with the idea of executing the buyer’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 1.12142 and 1.12757). Gold , after bouncing off the 50% level (2538.5) of the last monthly buyer’s impulse, has broken through 2710.52, which was the beginning of the last seller’s impulse on the daily timeframe. On the weekly timeframe, there was a manipulation (false breakout) of the level where the last buyer’s impulse started (2604.39), and the weekly bar is impressive with its spread. On the one hand, there is an opportunity to look for buys, but on the other hand, a seller may appear just above in the 2721–2759 range. Let’s see who will win the battle for the 2710.52 level. SPX500 . The buyer is defending the breakout from the range on the daily timeframe. The buyer has absorbed the seller’s attack bar from November 15 (which had high volume) on the upper boundary of the range at 5891.6. As a result, a buyer’s zone has formed on the upper boundary of the range (upper edge of the zone is 5975.6). Additionally, the price dipped below the 50% level of the last buyer’s impulse on the daily timeframe. You can look for buying opportunities if the buyer reactivates from this zone. Good luck with your trading and investments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: USD INDEX Is Still Bullish!November 25 -28th The DXY is still showing strength, but can pull back at any time. After breaching a Swing High, a pullback is naturally expected. But until it gives a bearish BOS, I am still buying the USD. Don't be too quick to start selling! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
1
GOLD → Why is the metal rising? A chance to upgrade ATH to 2800?FX:XAUUSD rallies and seeks to renew the local maximum. The fundamental background is changing in favor of the metal, to which aggressive buyers are running... Gold is not reacting to the dollar rally and hawkish Fed rate statements. Markets now rate the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December at 51%, up from 84% a week ago. The reason for the metal's rally is paramount to the escalating conflict in Eastern Europe. The US Democrats have untied the hands Ukraine, which has caused Russia to change its nuclear doctrine and lower its threshold for retaliatory decisions. The conflict, fundamentally, is taking a more serious side. Gold, as a hedge asset in times of crisis, is soaking up investor money and feeling strong buyer support Technically, we are getting a high probability that the metal can update ATH to 2800-2850. Resistance levels: 2710, 2731, 2750 Support levels: 2689, 2680, 2674 There is strong resistance ahead, which may trigger a correction to the nearest liquidity zones, but we are not talking about reversals. The correction may end quickly and the price will go into the bull run phase again. Medium-term targets are 2731-2750 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17
EURUSD → Consolidation “flag”. Willingness to go below...FX:EURUSD is forming a consolidation in the “flag” format, the purpose of which, in the current situation, is to accumulate the potential for continuation of the trend... Fundamental background is still negative. On D1 we can clearly see the consolidation below the key level of 1.0600 after a strong fall. There is no proper and logical reaction in the form of a pullback. Accordingly, based on this we can conclude that the dynamics and strength of the buyer is not enough to reverse the local situation. The dollar is starting the recovery phase again, which may put pressure on the euro. Technically, the emphasis on consolidation “flag”. The exit of the price from the boundaries of this channel will provoke further movement. Resistance levels: 1.0606 Support levels: 1.0521, 1.044 It is not worth trading inside the flag. The exception is a retest of resistance. Opening an order is acceptable after a false breakout. But, the emphasis is on 1.052. Breakout and fixing of the price below this zone can strengthen the fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
USDCHF - Who is the next head of the Fed?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is considering options to choose Kevin Warsh as Treasury Secretary, and it is possible that he will later be nominated to head the Federal Reserve. The decision is still undecided, and Trump will likely make his final decision near the end of Jerome Powell's term in May 2026. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, the Bridgewater company has announced that Trump may choose the chairman of the Federal Reserve who will follow his policies more. Because of Trump's economic policies, the US may not be able to reach the 2% inflation target. Trump's plans may increase costs and thus favor the stock market over bonds. Bob Prince, Bridgewater's chief investment officer, said Trump's policies on tariffs, fiscal stimulus and immigration are likely to keep the U.S. from reaching its 2 percent inflation target. If U.S. inflation approaches 3 percent over the next year and a half, Trump may appoint a Fed chairman who is aligned with a higher inflation target and allows interest rates to fall. Also, Goolsby, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has predicted that interest rates will drop significantly next year. Referring to the significant reduction in inflation and the state of the labor market, he expressed confidence that the inflation is moving towards the 2% target of the central bank and that the labor market has reached the level of almost full and stable employment.
Long
by Ali_PSND