DXY
DXY ShortBased on the previous analysis using a higher timeframe, I have analysed that we expect a bearish momentum from this trade.
Based on the 15 min timeframe, the price has retested and rejected the zone, forming an inverted hammer candlestick. I do anticipate that a bearish momentum is been formed.
Entry price at 106.9, SL at 107.2 and Target at 105.5
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold has been moving up very sharply but overall still trading within our Wave B zone. Still bearish on price action overall.
If price trades back above $2,700 then it'll range around $2,720 - $2,735. This huge move up is something called 'short squeeze' in trading. It's designed to make traders start panicking at buy the market at the top, at which point the big banks drop the price straight back down.
GOLD → The fundamental backdrop is changing, as are the targets$FX:XAUSUD breaks local trend and makes sellers nervous. The fundamental background is changing despite the growth of the dollar, which is generally positive for gold as a safe asset in times of crisis
The dollar rallied strongly on Wednesday as traders increased optimism on Trump's dealings, digesting hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. Despite the hawkish shift in Fed expectations and the optimism of the overall market syuttaion on the dollar, the gold price held up and benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, the gold price is likely to be firm, but upcoming Fed comments could strengthen sellers.
Technically, gold has all chances to test the previously broken channel boundary, but based on the technical and fundamentals, we can conclude that further growth may continue.
Resistance levels: 2665, 2686, 2700
Support levels: 2643, 2627
The price is heading towards the zone of liquidity and interest, from which a correction may be formed, after which the market may resume the growth of gold, as the interest to the metal as a hedge asset has returned.
Medium-term targets could be 2700-2750
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools
According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures.
The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%.
Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending.
BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks:
Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry.
Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
GBPUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets.
A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market.
On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term.
Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269
Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231
The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
GOLD--> Trend favors sellersGold prices maintained their recovery momentum on Wednesday, gaining over 70 pips early in the trading session and currently trading steadily around the 2639 USD level.
While the metal is showing signs of upward movement, this momentum appears to be short-lived as the overall trend remains favorable for sellers. The primary driver is the weakening of the US dollar, as investors take profits following last week's strong rally. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker dollar makes the metal more accessible to buyers using other currencies.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide strong support for gold prices, with the current target aimed at the resistance level of 2665 USD. If the price successfully breaks this level, further recovery could be expected. Conversely, if it fails, the recommended strategy remains selling in line with the primary trend.
Market Snapshot - MSTR is a monster + NVDA earnings and HedgingNVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today.
Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings.
MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end violently.
I also spend time reviewing my full watchlist in stocks, options, futures, and forex.
Thanks for watching!!!
Bearish Divergence Between DXY US Dollar Index & RSIThe DXY is butting up against a zone of significant resistance, and a bearish divergence between the index and the relative strength index suggests that buying pressure is fading here. A sharp correction in the dollar could have significant implications for gold, silver and other commodities.
Today we saw a rally in the DXY on a safe haven bid following news of escalation in Ukraine. If a major conflict between NATO and Russia really does break out, investors may learn the hard way that fiat currencies in fact do not make the best safe havens.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)As you saw on yesterday's update we've been expecting a slowdown in bullish momentum around current market price & that is exactly what's happening so far. Despite any short term pushes up, expecting price to drop back down again.
Still waiting to see some form of flat correction to take place within minor Wave 1 schematics of major Wave B. Time to be patient & let Gold do its thing!
Approaching $100,000: Will the Bulls Face a Test?**Bitcoin Consolidates Near $92,000: The Road to $100K Gains Momentum**
The BTC/USD pair is currently in a phase of consolidation following a robust and impressive rally. After weeks of upward momentum that saw Bitcoin break through multiple resistance levels, the token now seems to be gathering energy for another leg higher. The much-anticipated $95,000 to $100,000 target range is becoming increasingly realistic as both technical and fundamental factors align to support further bullish price action. With FOMO (fear of missing out) driving sentiment and a favorable macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin's northward journey appears far from over. But is this a pause before the next surge, or are there hidden risks on the horizon?
### **A Strong Fundamental Landscape: Macro Drivers at Play**
One of the key factors bolstering Bitcoin’s rally is its solid fundamental backdrop. Recent developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, coupled with influential narratives such as former U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprising support for digital assets, have added a unique layer of optimism to the space. Trump’s indirect influence on the market has created renewed interest in Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against economic uncertainty.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s trajectory out of a 9-month accumulation phase has been nothing short of remarkable. Historically, such extended periods of accumulation are followed by explosive moves, and this rally has been no exception. The 34% price increase during the current bullish run underscores the strength of this breakout, and with no significant signs of weakness in the broader market, the rally appears well-supported.
### **Technical Outlook: Smooth, Gradual Uptrend Developing**
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action paints a promising picture. Unlike previous volatile rallies, this move is characterized by a smooth, steady upward trend with gradually higher highs and higher lows. Notably, Bitcoin has refrained from testing or attempting to update its previous lows, a clear signal of bullish control in the market.
On the H1-H4 timeframes, an ascending price channel is becoming increasingly apparent. The upper boundary of this channel aligns with key resistance levels, particularly near $91,650 and $93,250. The lower boundary, acting as a dynamic support zone, coincides with levels at $90,300, $89,200, and $87,500. This structured price movement suggests that Bitcoin is not only maintaining its bullish posture but is also preparing for a potential breakout above these resistance levels.
### **Resistance and Support Levels in Focus**
At present, Bitcoin is consolidating near the $92,000 level. The area around $91,650 has emerged as a critical resistance zone, with multiple attempts to breach it met by temporary selling pressure. However, a successful breakout and consolidation above this level could serve as the catalyst for another impulsive move higher. On the flip side, support levels at $90,300, $89,200, and $87,500 are likely to cushion any short-term retracements, should they occur.
The recent 7% pullback from Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) can be attributed primarily to profit-taking rather than any fundamental or technical weakness. This type of retracement is common in strong uptrends and often serves to reset overbought conditions, paving the way for the next leg higher. Importantly, there are no clear signals pointing to a deep correction at this time, which further supports the bullish case.
### **Liquidity Considerations and Weekend Dynamics**
It is worth noting that reduced liquidity during the weekend (Saturday and Sunday) may introduce some volatility into the market. Historically, weekends tend to see thinner trading volumes, which can result in exaggerated price movements. In this context, Bitcoin could briefly test lower support levels before resuming its upward trajectory. Such a scenario would not be cause for concern but rather an opportunity for bulls to re-enter the market at more favorable levels.
### **The Path Forward: $100,000 in Sight**
As consolidation continues near $92,000, the emphasis remains on the critical $91,650 resistance zone. A decisive break and sustained price action above this level could ignite a fresh wave of buying interest, propelling Bitcoin toward the $95,000-$100,000 range. The technical structure of the market, combined with strong fundamental drivers, supports the notion that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is far from exhausted.
The cryptocurrency market as a whole remains a phenomenon to watch, and Bitcoin’s ability to carve out new highs while maintaining a measured and consistent uptrend speaks to its growing maturity as an asset class. For now, traders and investors alike should keep a close eye on key resistance and support levels, as well as broader market dynamics, to gauge the timing and strength of Bitcoin’s next move.
DXY Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 106.561.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 106.415 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD → Market confirms downtrendFX:XAUUSD is testing resistance of a key descending channel. Bears continue to resist based on important fundamental aspects of the global economy
Fears of further geopolitical escalation between Russia and Ukraine are likely to subside a bit. In addition, the Fed speech will help determine the U.S. central bank's future path on interest rates. Attention is focused on the December rate meeting....
Technically, the gold confirms the downtrend channel, so we have a key trend to follow in our trading decisions.
A false breakdown of the local resistance at 2627 is forming. Consolidation of the price below this zone may provoke further decline
Resistance levels: 2627, 2643
Support levels: 2694, 2560
Another resistance retest is possible. It will be possible to talk about buying after the price will be able to break 2643 and consolidate above this zone (additional scenario). But in priority I consider further decline from 2627 or from the channel resistance
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
US DollarLooking at historical events, Specially heading into 2025 as a year where we could see sharp declines in the stock market as rebalancing commences early in 2025. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of support over the last couple of months. and could still enjoy more, but as a long term investor and position trader im not interested in buying USD at these levels as COT index is showing imminent signs of reversals coming. Coupled with Seasonality it could happen in December. ill await clearer shifts on lower time frames for an entry. retail traders also are 80% long EURUSD, the moment they start selling i will buy and hold.