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GOLD → Are the bears in doubt? Resistance aheadFX:XAUUSD strengthens to 2625, jeopardizing the local downtrend. Fundamentally, the situation is complicated, as well as technically... The metal price is actively influenced by the escalated geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market is also watching the Middle East, as despite the reduced news flow, the situation is still tense. In addition, expectations of additional stimulus measures from China also favor the growth of prices for this metal. It is still unclear whether gold will be able to hold on to the bullish momentum as the price is approaching strong resistance and traders are cautious as they await new signals on the Fed's interest rate outlook. Technically, as the price is still within the boundaries of the local descending channel, it is worth considering selling from strong zones and levels. The situation will change when the price breaks (it is not a fact) the channel resistance... Resistance levels: 2626, 2643 Support levels: 2604, 2590 Most likely, the market seeks to test the resistance, relative to which a stalemate situation is forming due to the mixed fundamental background. A false break of 2643-2626 will strengthen the selling and bring us back to the downside. But an unexpected resistance breakout will bring back the buyers' motivation Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
4
Brent - Oil waiting for a new war?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. In case of a valid failure of the downward trend line, we can witness the continuation of this upward trend. Senior Russian lawmakers have warned that Washington’s decision to allow Kyiv to launch deep strikes into Russia using American long-range missiles will escalate the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War III. Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, stated that Moscow’s response would be immediate. Speaking to the state-run TASS news agency, he remarked, “This is a significant step toward the start of World War III.” Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that its missile defense systems had intercepted five out of six missiles fired. According to the RIA news agency, debris from one of the missiles, part of the U.S. Army’s ATACMS tactical missile system, landed near a military facility in the Bryansk region. Interfax news agency also reported that the attack on Bryansk was confirmed and attributed to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s border regions using ATACMS missiles as a clear message of escalating tensions. He also noted that President Vladimir Putin had previously issued warnings about such actions. Mike Waltz, a congressman from Florida, stated on November 18 that the Biden administration’s decision represents another step up the escalation ladder, with no clear end goal in sight. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. warned on X that this move risks sparking “World War III,” echoing Kremlin warnings. Former President Trump has yet to outline a specific plan for ending the war, raising concerns that he might pressure Ukraine into accepting an unfavorable agreement with Russia. In other developments, Francisco Blanch, a commodities strategist at Bank of America, noted that Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs to boost U.S. manufacturing and create jobs could lower commodity prices. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he remarked, “Trump’s priority is the U.S. economy.” Trump has proposed a 20% tariff on all foreign goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Experts warn that such a strategy could lead to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has halted issuing LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements with the U.S., citing the need to study the environmental, economic, and national security impacts of such exports. Additionally, a report reveals that BP’s ambitious efforts five years ago to transform from an oil company to a low-carbon energy business have been reversed. BP is now focusing on reclaiming its position as an oil and gas giant, addressing investor concerns over future profitability. Competitors like Shell and Equinor have similarly scaled back their green energy plans due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war and the declining profitability of renewable projects. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss plans to invest billions in new oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East while slowing down its low-carbon operations. The company has halted 18 initial hydrogen projects and announced plans to sell off wind and solar operations. Both BP and its competitors continue to invest in low-carbon energy but are focusing more on quickly profitable sectors like biofuels. Offshore wind and hydrogen projects that have already commenced will proceed, with additional investments considered only if competitive returns are assured.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Navigating the Gold Market: Tips for Investors Gold, often hailed as a safe-haven asset, is increasingly finding itself at the mercy of two powerful forces: China and the U.S. dollar. As these two economic giants influence global markets, their actions have a direct impact on the price of gold. China's Growing Appetite for Gold China's insatiable demand for gold has been a significant driver of the yellow metal's price. The country's burgeoning middle class, coupled with its cultural affinity for gold, has fueled a surge in gold consumption. This demand is not limited to jewelry; it extends to investment purposes as well. China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has also been a major buyer of gold. By diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, the PBOC aims to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions. As China continues to accumulate gold, it exerts significant influence over the global gold market. The Dominance of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, holds immense sway over the global economy. Its value relative to other currencies, often referred to as the "dollar index," has a significant impact on the price of gold. When the dollar strengthens, it typically leads to a decline in the price of gold. This is because gold is priced in U.S. dollars. As the dollar appreciates, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors to purchase gold, which can dampen demand and put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold often appreciates. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers, stimulating demand and driving up prices. The Interplay Between China and the U.S. Dollar The interplay between China's growing demand for gold and the strength of the U.S. dollar creates a complex dynamic that can impact the price of gold. • Competing Forces: China's demand for gold can support prices, while a strong U.S. dollar can exert downward pressure. • Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can exacerbate market volatility and impact the price of gold. • Global Economic Conditions: Global economic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, can also influence the demand for gold. The Future of Gold The future of gold remains uncertain, but China and the U.S. dollar will continue to play a significant role in shaping its price. As China's economy grows and its influence on the global stage increases, its demand for gold is likely to remain strong. However, the strength of the U.S. dollar will also be a key factor. If the dollar strengthens significantly, it could put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a weakening dollar could support gold prices. In conclusion, gold's future is intertwined with the economic and geopolitical landscape. While it remains a valuable asset, investors should carefully consider the impact of China and the U.S. dollar on its price. Diversification and a long-term investment horizon may be prudent strategies for those seeking exposure to gold. Additional Factors Affecting Gold Prices • Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive investment. • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can reduce the appeal of gold, as investors may prefer to invest in interest-bearing assets. • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and market psychology can significantly impact gold prices, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. • Supply and Demand Dynamics: Global gold production and demand can influence prices. Changes in mining production or shifts in consumer demand can affect supply and demand dynamics. By understanding the interplay of these factors, investors can make more informed decisions about investing in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by bryandowningqln
LONG GOLD NOW, LET ME BREAK IT DOWN !Gold price stays firm for the second consecutive day so far, drawing support from the recent retracement in the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, fuelling the corrective downside in the US Dollar (USD) against its major currency rivals. The US bond yields have embarked upon a correction mode as investors remain wary of the impact of the potential fiscal and trade policies to be introduced by US President-elect Donald Trump on the economic and inflation outlook. Additionally, Gold price capitalizes on the renewed geopolitical escalation between Russia and Ukraine after US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use American Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike inside Russia on Sunday. The decision to allow the use of long-range US weapons inside Russia came after Moscow deployed North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces. Moreover, expectations of more stimulus measures coming in from China also bode well for the bright metal. China is the world’s top Gold consumer. Securities Journal, Chinese state media, quoted analysts saying further cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) coming this year. Note that China is the world’s top Gold consumer, and any support measures by the local authorities to boost economic performance seem positive for the precious metal. However, it remains to be seen if Gold price manages to hold on to its recovery momentum as traders turn cautious, awaiting more cues on the Fed’s interest rate outlook from the central bank talks due Tuesday and later this week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Andz50
From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
EURUSD continues to extend sharp decline from 1.0600Dear Traders... Let's discuss and strategize with Ben today! Overall, after updating the low around 1.0497, the price recovered around 0.08% on the day. However, EUR/USD remained on the defensive near 1.0550 during the European session on Monday. The pair remained weak as geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine resurfaced although the US Dollar limited its gains. The divergent policy outlook of the ECB-Fed also weighed on the pair ahead of the central bank talks. Today, there will be no high-impact data that could influence the action of EUR/USD. Therefore, market participants will pay close attention to comments from central bank officials. Technically, price resistance at 1.0550 - 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0663 should be watched. A false breakout and consolidation below these areas could trigger a decline. Currently, Euro is hinting that the pullback could be a bit longer. MMs are likely to look for liquidity (above these levels) ahead of the news. A false breakout could trigger sellers to act, which would only add to the selling pressure. However, a mild recovery from 1.0550 and back to 1.0497 would increase the likelihood of a breakdown and decline.
Short
by Bentradegold
Gold price suddenly reversed and increasedOANDA:XAUUSD surged after the US dollar paused its rally and Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated. Spot gold ended the trading session on November 18 up $48 to $2,611/ounce, ending a six-session losing streak and escaping a two-month low. Sellers held back as US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons supplied by the United States to strike deep into Russian territory. This was clearly a major driver of strong safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices higher. This move not only marked a turning point in the gold market but also signaled that investors were looking for opportunities amid increasingly tense geopolitical conditions. However, in the medium and long term, we still think sellers still have the upper hand technically!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TomtradeFX
Sell USD/JPY Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.42, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 153.18 2nd Support – 152.55 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
eurnzd h2 long/short +200/+400 pips swing trade plan🔸Hello traders, let's review the 2hour chart for EURNZD today. Rangebound trading condition recently, currently expecting a re-test of the mirror S/R resistance overhead and then sellers will take over from the resistance. 🔸Key levels for EURNZD traders: 7860 s/r bulls, 8050/60 s/r bears, 7659 mirror s/r bulls level will get re-tested by the bears for liquidity. 🔸Recommended strategy for EURNZD traders: the sequence is long/short so you want to buy low off the s/r bulls at 7860 SL 40 TP +200 pips, this is the bounce play / re-test of the mirror s/r bears at 8050 then flip short at/near 8050+-10 pips SL 50 pips TP1 +200 TP2 +400 pips final exit bears at mirror s/r at 7650. this is a swing trade setup, patience required. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
16
XAUUSD - Buy Gold!?The US dollar gained strength again last week due to the effects of Trump being elected as the next US president. Considering that the Republican Party will control the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, it is expected that the implementation of Trump's pre-election promises will easily become law. The new US president wants drastic cuts in corporate taxes and tariffs on goods imported from around the world, especially from China. From the point of view of the financial community, these actions could increase inflation and prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in the future. US inflation data in October indicated the persistence of price pressures. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. This has led some market participants to believe that interest rate cuts will stop in the near future. Mark Leboitt, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, commented: "Gold's price correction is happening as expected, with a possible drop to the $2,300 level, although the long-term view remains to reach $3,700. considers "Right now, gold is oversold, so we're likely to see a correction," he continued. In such a situation, buying at weak price points for long-term positions and doing short-term transactions with a buying approach can be considered a suitable strategy. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said: "For the coming week, an upward trend is expected. The excitement and frenzy surrounding the recent US election is likely coming to an end, which means the market will face new uncertainties. In such a situation, gold can once again be considered as a safe asset by investors and can be bought as a hedge against the volatility of other market sectors, especially the stock market. This week for the US we have S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI data to watch out for. The beginning of the easing cycle in September and the first reduction in interest rates have revived hopes for the improvement of data such as PMI, and economic activities are expected to improve, especially in the manufacturing and industrial sector, with the continued reduction in borrowing costs. Therefore, although we cannot expect a significant improvement in the short term, we can hope for the improvement of the production sector in the future and gradually. In addition, the speeches of several central bank officials are also of particular importance to traders, as they try to get indications of the speed and possible depth of interest rate cuts. Among the important speeches of the week, we can mention Goolsby's statement on Monday and his appearance again with Hamek on Thursday.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → Are the buyers back? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is getting stronger after a false breakdown of support. The fundamental background also contributes to it. The focus is on resistance 2589 and 2618, which divide the market into two zones. The attention of the markets is shifting to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Biden (or those above him) decided to escalate an already tense situation with his authorization of long-range missiles before leaving office. (A rather bizarre maneuver that generally characterizes Democrats as advocates of war, not peace). Gold has been reacting accordingly since the opening session. China is trying to strengthen its economy, and the dollar's consolidation after the rally gives gold fans a chance. Technically gold is in the range of 2604 - 2546. Since the opening of the session, the price has been rallying quite strongly, which increases the chances of resistance to stop this rise Resistance levels: 2589, 2604, 2618 Support levels: 2559, 2546, 2531 The situation is complicated due to the mixed fundamental background. False breakdown of 2589 and consolidation below this zone will strengthen the sales. But, there is a probability of retest of 2618 (liquidity zone). Similarly, a false breakout will trigger selling. But if the fundamental situation will strengthen in the direction of gold, the market will have a chance to change the local trend from 2618 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15