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DXY

XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher. Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated: “I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.” He further added: “Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.” With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details. At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures. Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated: “I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.” Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle. Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded: “As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The EURUSD currency pair is located above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining the drawn ascending channel will lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the channel ceiling. A correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with its next opportunity to buy it. Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have sparked concerns among European companies. A report by Bank of America (BofA) highlights dozens of European firms that are vulnerable to these tariffs due to their supply chain dependencies and revenue exposure. Among these companies, the Italian automaker Stellantis stands out. According to the report, Stellantis operates 16 supply chain links in Canada and derives 47% of its total revenue from North America. Similarly, the German auto giant BMW has 18 supply chain links in Canada and generates 26% of its revenue from the United States. In the energy sector, the UK-based utility company National Grid, with a market value of €58 billion, has a significant presence in the U.S., where 50% of its assets and 54% of its revenue originate. Although its tangible supply chain exposure in Mexico and Canada is relatively low, its extensive operations in the U.S. make it highly susceptible to the negative impacts of these tariffs. Eurozone Bank Lending Survey – January 2025: • Credit Standards: In Q4 2024, corporate credit standards tightened due to rising perceived risks and reduced risk tolerance. • Mortgage Loans: Credit standards for household mortgages remained unchanged, but lending conditions for consumer credit tightened further. • Loan Demand: Mortgage loan demand surged significantly, while corporate loan demand remained weak. According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial markets are currently overly focused on Donald Trump’s economic policies, potentially overlooking the risks associated with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision today following a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, investors are keen to find clues regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Based on market pricing, expectations suggest a 40-basis-point rate cut by December. A key unknown factor influencing this outlook is Donald Trump’s policies. He has recently called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Additionally, his tariff policies, which include imposing high tariffs on both allies and competitors, could further drive inflationary pressures. As a result, the Fed may proceed cautiously with its rate-cut cycle. However, Trump’s administration has not yet implemented widespread tariffs, though he has threatened to do so. Meanwhile, some Fed officials have recently signaled a more hawkish stance. There is also speculation that the Fed may seek to assert its independence at the beginning of Trump’s new presidential term by resisting his demands. If the Fed takes such a position, Trump may respond aggressively, which could further heighten market uncertainty.
Long
by Ali_PSND
DXY rebounding on the 1D MA50 and bottom of Channel Up.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 05 2024 Low and the break-out above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Yesterday it made a new Higher Low exactly at the bottom of the Channel and shortly after breaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This MA recovery confirms the start of the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The previous two delivered a rise of exactly +4.50%, and as such we will be looking for a similar Target at 111.650. Note that, even though the 1D RSI resembles the May 15 2024 Low, which despite an initial rebound, it was rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line at the time, now the long-term trend has shifted to bullish as that Lower Highs trend-line turned into Support on the December 06 2024 contact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
1
DXY Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 107.947. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 106.747 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
GOLD → Character changes, bearish premise emergesGOLD updates the low and tests trend support, testing the market and traders' nerves. The dollar is rebounding, putting pressure on the metal. Gold is moving into a correction, gradually changing the bullish nature of the market to bearish under selling pressure due to growing demand for the dollar amid fears of a trade war over Trump's policies. The issue of tariffs by the US is still open. Meanwhile, traders' attention is focused on data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence in the US, as well as the Fed meeting, the outcome of which will be announced on Wednesday. Technically, after breaking the bullish structure, the price is testing the channel support. It is quite difficult to break this line from the first time and the price may form a correction to 2745, or to the imbalance zone, for example, to 2750- 2760 Fibo, before the market desire to sell resumes. Resistance levels: 2745, 2751, 2760 Support levels: 2735 (trigger), 2717 If 2745 does not miss price and gold returns to 2735, then we should prepare for a break of trend support. In that case, an impulse to 2717 could form. But, if 2745 does not hold the price, gold may test 2750 - 2760 before falling further. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
18
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "GOLD vs US Dollar" Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A Bear trade can be initiated at any price level. however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4h period, the recent / nearest high level Goal 🎯: 105.800 (or) Before escape in the market Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook The DXY (Dollar Index) market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors. 🔴Fundamental Analysis The DXY is a geometrically weighted index that tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). The index is influenced by interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators such as GDP and employment rates. 🟠Macro Analysis The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions significantly impact the DXY. With the Fed's rate hike cycle, the US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields has put pressure on the dollar. 🟡Market Sentiment The market sentiment for the DXY is currently bearish, with 71% of IG client accounts short on this market. However, some analysts believe that the dollar's decline has been overdone and expect a rebound. 🟢Retail Traders' Sentiments Retail traders' sentiments are mixed, with some expecting a bullish move and others predicting a bearish trend. On TradingView, some analysts have identified a potential bearish pattern, while others see a bullish reversal. 🔵Upcoming Events The upcoming events that may impact the DXY include: Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed's interest rate decision and monetary policy statement may influence the dollar's value. US GDP and Inflation Data: The release of US GDP and inflation data may impact the dollar's strength. Trade Developments: Any updates on US trade policies, particularly with China, may affect the dollar's value. 🟣Trading Expectations Based on the analysis, it's challenging to predict a clear direction for the DXY. However, considering the bearish market sentiment and potential bearish patterns, a neutral to bearish move is possible in the short term. Keep a close eye on upcoming events and market developments to adjust your trading strategy accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
TVC:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader
3
USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 154.30 2nd Support – 153.52 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
Euro maintaining uptrend due to short-term dollar weakness The short-term dollar weakness is leading to a notable appreciation of the euro. Within the ECB, there are varying opinions regarding the future rate trajectory, but the prevailing sentiment strongly leans towards the necessity of further rate cuts. ING Group is confident that the ECB will cut interest rates by an additional 25bp at its monetary policy meeting this week and will pursue more gradual easing throughout the year. It’s also crucial to closely monitor Germany's 4Q GDP and Spain's January CPI results set to be released this week. Germany's GDP (QoQ) is projected to drop to -0.1% from 0.1% in the previous quarter, while the market anticipates Spain's January CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% in the prior month. EURUSD broke below EMA21 and retreated to 1.0430. However, the price is still holding an uptrend, sustaining bullish momentum.If EURUSD breaks above EMA21 and the resistance at 1.0455, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0530. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below the channel’s lower bound, the price could test the support at 1.0400.
by inkicho_exness
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.16 1st Support: 106.51 1st Resistance: 107.92 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
1
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY . In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level. Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) | 1 DAY | SWING TRADING | ICT STRATEGY Hey there, friends! 👋 I’ve prepared a gold analysis for you using the swing trading style. 📊 Currently, the daily analysis aligns with the ICT market maker sell model. However, for these models to work, we need to see some sort of reaction in the market. Patience is key, so hang tight and wait for my analysis to be updated. ⏳ Once I spot a reaction, I'll share a golden target with you! 🎯 Don’t forget to hit the like button to stay tuned for updates! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderTilki