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XAGUSD - Silver will continue to rise?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the current economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend line is broken and the $30 range is maintained, we can see the continuation of the rise up to the level of $32. Over the past year, silver struggled to keep pace with gold, as gold reached multiple record highs while silver remained below $30 an ounce for a prolonged period. However, according to one analyst, this trend may shift in 2025, with the gold-to-silver ratio expected to moderate from its recent highs. Julian Wee, a market strategist at UBS, commented, “Gold remains a favored asset for portfolio risk hedging against various risks, but the shift from a ‘soft landing’ to ‘no landing’ argues for a balance between a defensive stance and exposure to economic growth. Silver, which has historically shown a high correlation with gold, may benefit more from increased industrial demand.” Wee highlighted that amid rising geopolitical tensions, gold has emerged as a preferred hedge. He noted that gold “has risen 35% this year alone, and demand has remained strong amid numerous risk events and declining global interest rates. At least for this month, gold has asserted itself as a hedge against slower economic growth and rising inflation.” He further remarked that silver, like gold, also exhibits an inverse relationship to risk aversion, thus serving a similar defensive role. “Amid resilient U.S. GDP growth, investors may find it beneficial to add to portfolios that maintain a strong defensive stance while gradually enhancing exposure to stronger economic growth,” he suggested. According to Wee, silver is expected to see increased demand due to its widespread use in sectors like technology and electric vehicles, as well as in LED production, solar panels, and medical applications owing to its antibacterial properties. Industrial demand will likely lead to higher demand for physically-backed ETFs. On the supply side, mine production is anticipated to remain limited in 2025. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, discussed various factors affecting productivity growth, including the rise of new businesses and workforce mobility. He also noted that automation has contributed to productivity improvements. Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is restrictive, though the exact degree remains uncertain. He stated that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of rate reductions and is moving towards a neutral rate, underscoring the need for a gradual and careful approach. Powell suggested that slowing the pace of rate cuts could be appropriate if data permits. He mentioned that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, providing space for rate reductions if needed, though a careful approach remains necessary. Powell also referred to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, which showed a slight increase, but he believes the inflation trajectory remains on the right path. He stressed that monetary policy should neither be overly restrictive nor overly lenient.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉 Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107 without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general, the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
Possible USD Strength Continuation?Here's the revised trading plan with the requested adjustments: 1 . Baseline Scenario : - Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Slightly Dovish . The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing. While inflation remains somewhat elevated, the Fed is balancing its dual mandate of supporting employment and controlling inflation. Current market expectations indicate a 59% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the December meeting, down from 82.5%. - Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bullish . The short-term sentiment on the USD is bullish, driven by Fed Chair Powell's recent comments on the strong economy and solid job market, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations: - Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.5%) - Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.4%) 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Positive Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures exceed expectations, this will likely reinforce the bullish sentiment on the USD. Consider increasing long positions in USD pairs, particularly against currencies with dovish central banks. Additionally, look for opportunities in sectors that benefit from strong consumer spending, such as retail and consumer discretionary stocks. - Negative Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures come in below expectations, the market reaction is expected to be muted given the current sentiment. Maintain existing positions but be prepared to adjust if subsequent data or Fed communications indicate a shift in the economic outlook. Monitor for any signs of weakening consumer confidence or spending that could impact broader market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by Midas_Macro
DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope
1
GOLD → Correction ahead of PPI before falling to $2470FX:XAUUSD on the news continues its bearish rally. The price is breaking the structure of 2547. A false breakdown and counter-trend correction may form before PPI and Powell's speech... Demand for the dollar rises at the expense of gold. Trump-led euphoria continues to support the index despite relatively weak CPI data and the stance of Fed policymakers. In the medium term, the focus is on the next Fed rate meeting. The most likely scenario is a 0.25% rate cut. Bulls in gold are likely to have to reassess their medium-term targets as the dollar's rise caused by Trump's trade is outweighed despite the Fed's relatively dovish stance. For today, all eyes are on Powell's speech and PPI and jobless claims. Technically, gold is testing the important level of 2546 as part of a strong decline. A false breakdown and correction is possible. Resistance levels: 2577, 2589, 2595 Support levels: 2546, 2531, 2500 Before the news, a rebound to the imbalance zone or local resistance may be formed in the hope to win back the losing positions of those who have not yet managed to leave the market. I expect that after the correction the price will continue its decline. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
This is the only Dollar chart you’ll need for 2025The current strong recovery of the US dollar is largely Trump-related, as his policies suggest that the economy could expand, potentially leading to higher inflation and rates to counteract it. It’s important to recognize that this move since the end of October is a type of euphoria or optimism surrounding Trump. However, once Trump actually takes office, we may see new flows and trend directions emerge. In Trump’s previous term, the dollar turned lower quite aggressively, topping in December 2016/ January 2017. I’m wondering if we could see a similar price action this time. In Elliott wave terms, we should definitely be aware of a potential reversal. Looking at the current chart, we see five waves down followed by an ABC recovery—the most basic and clear Elliott wave structure. The five-wave decline signals a bearish trend starting in 2022/23, and the current pause could set up for another drop in the dollar. Always when you track a correction or a counter-trend move, watch for a three-wave pattern before concluding that the dollar has reached a resistance point. Currently, wave C is still ongoing, possibly in its late stages, though it hasn’t yet reached the 108 level, which is likely an important reversal area. This zone aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key for the final stages of corrective retracement. To me, this suggests that the dollar could potentially sell off next year. Now, you may be wondering what this means for other markets. It depends on the catalyst behind the dollar’s turn. If a recession triggers it, stocks might also face downside pressure. Alternatively, if the dollar weakens due to extreme inflows into other assets, particularly stocks, then equities could continue pushing higher. A lot of of money is still on the sideline, and is likely waiting for new opportunities, and if stocks will keep pushing up, funds could shift from the dollar to stocks, potentially creating a blow-off top. This could mean that 2025 might be an “interesting” year for stocks, with potential for a major reversal. Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast