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AUD/JPY Short Setup Near Key 101.000 Resistance**AUD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum After False Breakout, Key Support Levels in Focus** Recently, the AUD/JPY currency pair exhibited a notable false breakout above the 102.00 resistance zone, triggering a bearish impulse move that has shifted the sentiment towards a possible downtrend. This initial breakout, followed by a sharp reversal, suggests that buyers may be losing strength at these higher levels. The pair faced significant resistance near the top boundary of an upward-trending channel, where it has rebounded sharply, failing to sustain momentum past this resistance. The technical signals on the weekly timeframe add further weight to this bearish perspective. A long-tailed bar has formed, typically indicative of a possible exhaustion of bullish pressure and a reversal in direction. This long wick suggests that sellers stepped in decisively, pushing prices down after an initial rise. As a result, it implies a potential shift in sentiment, hinting at the likelihood of lower price levels in the near term. Currently, the broader trend of AUD/JPY appears to be moving sideways, oscillating within a defined range. The price action’s inability to break out convincingly beyond this range aligns with the view that any upward moves might be short-lived. The recent false breakout near the upper boundary underscores the presence of robust selling interest at this level, further supporting the case for a potential downside continuation. Looking ahead, I expect AUD/JPY to pull back toward the resistance zone before resuming its bearish movement. This retracement may provide an opportunity to re-evaluate entry points as the pair potentially builds momentum for a deeper decline. My primary target is the support zone around 96.170, a level that aligns with both historical support and the lower boundary of the current range. In summary, AUD/JPY has shown clear signs of bearish pressure following a false breakout and rejection at the channel’s top boundary. The combination of technical signals—the false breakout, long-tailed weekly bar, and sideways trend—suggests a strong case for continued downside action, with the 96.170 support zone as a key target. As the pair potentially retraces, I’ll monitor for signs of renewed selling pressure, particularly in the resistance area, before a deeper move down.
Short
by lonelyPlayer0
1
XAUUSD - which way will gold go after CPI!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of upward correction due to today's economic data, we can see supply zones and sell within those zones with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the downward movement of gold has led to the visibility of the demand zone and it is possible to look for buying positions. UBS analysts are optimistic about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite inflation concerns. Recent inflation data has not been enough to change UBS's view on further rate cuts by the FOMC. UBS refers to the following points: • Economic data indicates a stronger than expected economy. • Concerns about inflation remain. • The expectations of the market are moving towards the reduction of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve. • Federal Reserve officials see the current rate as restrictive but are trying to balance employment and inflation goals. • A major inflationary shock is needed to change the policy landscape. The consensus seems to be that once Trump takes office, he will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to boost growth and deliver on his economic promises. This was indeed the context for the questions asked of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. He was asked if he would resign if pressured by the Trump administration. Powell stated that he will not resign and that the president does not have such authority. This assumption partly goes back to the first term of Trump's presidency, when he repeatedly called for easing policies of the Federal Reserve and sometimes criticized Powell. But the difference between today and 2018 and 2019 is that inflation was much lower at that time. Most importantly, voters showed their anger at the high cost of living by ousting Democrats from the White House and the Senate. NBC exit polls in 10 key states found that three-quarters of voters rated inflation as a moderate or severe problem in the past year, and more supported Trump. "It makes more sense for Trump 2.0 to bear some of the economic slack (and blame it on Biden and Harris) to curb inflation," Stephen Jenn, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note. "I don't agree at all that Trump 2.0 risks increasing inflation." Meanwhile, China's central bank stopped buying gold for reserves for the sixth consecutive month in October, according to official data. China's gold reserves reached 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. However, the value of gold reserves rose to $199.06 billion from $191.47 billion at the end of September. The World Gold Council's report predicts that gold purchases by global central banks, which increased in 2022 and 2023, will decline in 2024, although they will remain above pre-2022 levels. This issue is partly due to the suspension of 18-month purchases of the People's Bank of China since May.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Is inflation under control in America?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The Governor of the Bank of England noted that the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not accurately indicate whether underlying inflation dynamics have been suppressed. There remains a risk of rising energy prices, and inflation within the services sector is notably resilient and persistent. He anticipates greater volatility ahead, with some inflationary drivers potentially shifting upwards. Additionally, according to new data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the inflation trend in the U.S. continues to remain above 2 percent. The Median CPI for the previous month was reported at 4.09 percent, a slight increase from 4.08 percent in the prior month. Since June, this measure has only seen a minor decline, from 4.15 percent to the current level. Median CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that measures price changes at the midpoint of a basket of goods. Although this method may differ from the standard CPI, it focuses on items that fall within the midpoint of the distribution. Charts within this report show that other inflation indicators are relatively stabilized, while the decline in the headline CPI is primarily due to a drop in energy prices, which is considered a temporary factor. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite ongoing challenges, debt levels remain manageable. Although delinquency rates have risen, income growth continues to outpace household debt growth. In the third quarter, delinquency transition rates varied, with credit card delinquencies improving, while delinquency rates for auto loans and mortgages saw a decline. At the end of Q3, 3.5 percent of debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in Q2. Overall delinquency rates also increased during this period. According to the data, credit card balances in Q3 rose 8.1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.17 trillion, marking an increase of around $24 billion from Q2. Additionally, mortgage balances increased by $75 billion in this period, reaching $12.59 trillion.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel. The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal. Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market. In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines. TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran. The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.” Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
DXY Potential Rally to 108: High-Probability Setup with FVG The DXY is currently positioned around 105, showing momentum to potentially push up to the 108 region. This area features a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and weekly timeframes, providing a strong confluence zone. Price previously failed to sustain on the monthly OB, indicating a move towards the buyside liquidity above this PD array. Should we see price react at the 108 FVG, it could present a reversal opportunity, especially given the alignment with overlapping daily and higher timeframe FVGs. However, if bullish momentum continues, this setup may also lead to further liquidity grabs. Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
TVC:DXYLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
The Impact of Emerging Markets on the Dollar amidst Looming TradThe recent shift in US political landscape has ignited a wave of uncertainty across global markets. A potential escalation of trade tensions with China and other key economies could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for the US dollar and emerging market currencies. The Dollar's Uncertain Future The US dollar, long considered a safe-haven asset, faces a crossroads. While a more protectionist stance could initially bolster the dollar's appeal, it could also trigger a chain reaction of economic consequences. Increased tariffs and trade barriers could lead to higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's purchasing power. Moreover, if the US economy weakens as a result of trade disputes, the dollar's demand as a safe-haven currency could diminish. Emerging Markets in the Crossfire Emerging market economies, which have often relied on exports to fuel their growth, are particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions. A trade war could disrupt global supply chains, increase the cost of imported goods, and reduce demand for emerging market exports. This could lead to currency devaluation, higher inflation, and slower economic growth. Currency Pegs Under Pressure Countries that peg their currencies to the US dollar, such as Hong Kong and some Middle Eastern nations, could face significant challenges. If the dollar weakens or strengthens significantly, it could put pressure on these currency pegs, forcing central banks to intervene to maintain the exchange rate. This could deplete foreign exchange reserves and limit monetary policy flexibility. The Renminbi's Rising Influence China's renminbi could emerge as a potential beneficiary of a weakened US dollar. As China continues to expand its economic influence and promote the internationalization of its currency, it could become a more attractive alternative to the dollar for global trade and investment. However, a trade war with the US could also negatively impact the renminbi, as it could lead to reduced demand for Chinese exports and capital flight. Navigating the Uncharted Waters To mitigate the risks associated with a potential trade war, emerging market economies may need to adopt a combination of strategies. These could include diversifying export markets, promoting domestic consumption, and strengthening financial institutions. Additionally, central banks may need to adjust monetary policy to stabilize currencies and manage inflation. In conclusion, the potential for increased trade tensions between the US and China could have significant implications for the global economy, the US dollar, and emerging market currencies. While the full impact of these developments remains uncertain, it is clear that businesses, investors, and policymakers around the world will need to closely monitor the situation and adapt their strategies accordingly.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
GOLD → The bearish rally is intensifying. Next, 2500-2400?FX:XAUUSD accelerates its fall and updates the low, testing the zone below 2600. Panic? Profit-taking? Are buyers turning around? CPI and PPI ahead, is there still hope? Chinese authorities have played a negative role this time with their weak support for markets (traders are wary of potential trade tariffs that Trump may impose), which is generally reflected in the gold price in part. Theoretically, any attempts to rise in gold may be limited, due to the rise of the dollar, which is feeling support from the market amid the excitement of Trump and fading expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Ahead is the consumer price index, which could have an impact on the Fed's future rate path and the US dollar. Technically, gold is trying to break out of a key range breaking support. If a false break of 2604 is formed, a small correction to resistance may form. Resistance levels: 2626, 2637 Support levels: 2604, 2569, 2546 If the bears keep the price below 2605-2600, the decline may intensify, but since the price is testing strong support, a false breakdown and a correction may be formed as a primary reaction, for example to 2626-2637 (0.5 fibo) before a further decline. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
24
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY @2.6% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - US Inflation Rate Picks Up The annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.6% in October, from 2.4% in September and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI rise by 0.2%, consistent with the previous three months with shelter index up 0.4%, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Meanwhile, core inflation stayed at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD : First Short, then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the 1.06 level. Since the previous analysis, it has dropped over 500 pips. I anticipate that the price will soon react positively to the 1.052 to 1.058 zone, potentially leading to a recovery of 40 to 300 pips.Keep an eye on these marked levels! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
26
GBP/USD : First Short, then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the daily timeframe, we can observe that the price is experiencing a significant decline. I anticipate that this heavy drop will likely pause, at least temporarily, upon reaching the demand zone between 1.267 and 1.2735. This is a key area of interest, and I expect a potential return of 50 to 200 pips from this level. This analysis will be updated as necessary. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
33
XAUUSD - CPI CPI CPI!The world's largest gold-backed mutual fund posted its biggest weekly outflows in more than two years last week. Donald Trump's resounding victory in the election caused traders to take their profits. The SPDR fund (GLD) saw more than $1 billion in outflows, the fund's biggest weekly outflow since July 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of gold decreased by 1.9% during the same period. Total gold ETF holdings fell 0.4 percent, the second straight weekly decline. Investors usually look for safe assets in times of political and economic uncertainty. They sought the safe haven of gold last month as the US presidential election was expected to be competitive. But as Trump swept to victory after capturing key battleground states and Republicans took control of the Senate, the decisive outcome prompted investors to exit their positions to preserve their gains. Trump's victory also boosted the value of the U.S. dollar and the stock market, which was a negative for gold as it made the bullion less attractive to investors holding other currencies. Bitcoin, for example, has been boosted by President-elect Donald Trump's embrace of the digital asset and the prospect of a Congress with pro-crypto lawmakers. Gold traders continued to take profits on Monday, with prices hitting one-month lows and shares of gold mining companies falling. Key economic events to watch include today's release of the US net Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which the Fed will be watching closely to assess whether consumer inflation remains on track to reach Is it at the 2% level or not?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → A change in structure and a change in trend. CPI ahead!FX:XAUUSD is turning around. The daily session closes below 2604 and the breakdown of the global structure confirms the bearish nature of the market. The fight for the key 2600 zone continues... Trump's tough policies could slow the Fed's easing cycle, the dollar would then continue to strengthen at the expense of gold... There is another Fed rate meeting in December and obviously the question is: either 0.25% or hold. All eyes are on the CPI, the data will determine whether the Fed will continue its rate cut trajectory after December. A downside surprise in CPI could reinforce dovish expectations for the Fed. Conversely, a stronger inflation report could trigger a change in the regulator's stance. Any reaction to the news could be short-lived as attention immediately shifts to Thursday, PPI and Powell's... Resistance levels: 2616, 2626, 2637 ! Key level: 2604 Support levels: 2590, 2569 The fight for 2604 continues, if the bears can keep the defense below this zone, we should expect a fall. But, there is a high probability of correction on the background of news volatility and retest of resistance 2626-2637 before the further fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
DXY, Is correction on the way ?Hello Traders, Hope you are doing great. for upcoming days and for a short period of time, we'll probably see a downward correction to Specified level in TVC:DXY , we also have a Divergence on 4H that confirms our theory. so with a proper trigger we can open a short position. We will also probably find better buy positions in FX:GBPUSD And FX:AUDUSD than the FX:EURUSD . Trade safe and have a great weekend. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
TVC:DXYShort
by aminrzb
EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it. According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.” Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen. Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.” In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent. In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Copper - The negative impact of Trump's victory on commoditiesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the bottom of the channel is maintained, it is possible to sell copper in the supply zones in the short term. After Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election and the positive reaction from markets, investors are refocusing on economic data. Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with strong market responses, with stocks and Bitcoin reaching new highs and the U.S. dollar hitting a four-month peak. Treasury yields also saw significant increases. It’s worth noting that yields have been rising since late September as investors anticipated fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two to three years. Now, Trump’s victory has diminished hopes for rate cuts. If Trump follows through on his promises to cut taxes and increase tariffs, these measures could drive prices up by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve may have to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period than current expectations. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release today, will provide the first economic clues post-election for rate cut forecasts. The annual CPI rate fell to 2.4% in September but is expected to rise to 2.5% in October. Monthly CPI is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% in October. In China, senior lawmakers approved a plan to shift local government debt to the official balance sheet, allowing Beijing to better assist local governments in managing debt challenges. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress also approved a plan to increase the local debt ceiling. According to Mr. Xu, head of the National People’s Congress Budget Committee, China intends to raise the local government debt cap by 6 trillion yuan. China’s exports have also surged, as Beijing braces for Trump’s potential tariff threats. Chinese factories have ramped up production to ship goods to major export markets before any new tariffs are imposed. Trump’s election win has intensified tariff concerns among Chinese officials and factory owners. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have demanded more detailed information on advanced chip-making equipment sales to China by major manufacturers, reflecting growing tensions between the superpowers and concerns about potential military applications. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has also informed several Chinese clients that it is suspending production of AI and high-performance computing chips to comply with U.S. export control laws. On the other hand, Commerzbank predicts the potential for further gains in the U.S. dollar is limited, and that Trump’s macroeconomic policies may be less impactful than anticipated. While Trump’s policies are inflationary, the effects are likely to be contained, meaning the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND