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$DXY to 100 and heading lower, bullish for $EURUSDTVC:DXY the dollar index, was the primary driver of the equity bear market in 2022. With TVC:DXY hitting a 5 year high of 114 marked the bottom in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. The recent strength in TVC:DXY was out of stock with TVC:DXY and Stock markets rising at the same time and dropping when the TVC:DXY is falling. Usually, the risk assets have an inverse correlation to the US Dollar index. These periods in history are unusual and are marked by some kind of macro events like recession etc. With tariffs discussion everywhere that might not be unrealistic to expect some kind of recession. In that case where is the TVC:DXY headed? Currently the TVC:DXY is at a psychological level of 100. Once it breaks below 100 the next stop might be 95. If we see some kind of soft recession which is my worst-case scenario then we might see the lows of 90 in $DXY. If TVC:DXY goes down by 10% or lower than we can expect to the FX:EURUSD to go back to its recent high of 1.23. Verdict: Short TVC:DXY ; Long FX:EURUSD , AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ
TVC:DXYLong
by RabishankarBiswal
DXY Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 99.769. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 96.117 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
[XAU/USD & DXY] – Long-Term Outlook📌 – Long-Term Outlook: Is Gold Entering a New Bull Cycle as USD Weakens? 📊 Technical Analysis – Gold & DXY The divergence between Gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has become increasingly clear: 🔹 Gold (XAU/USD): Price has broken the previous high at 3,190 and is now testing 3,219 – a fresh all-time high on the daily chart. The MA13, MA34, and MA200 are showing a perfect “bullish fan” formation, indicating a sustainable uptrend rather than a short-term pump. The key support zone around 3,164 – 3,118 remains critical for any healthy pullback. 🔻 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Price has decisively broken below the psychological 100.55 support and is now hovering near 99.78. If DXY fails to hold above 99.7, the next downside target could be 97.5 in the coming quarter. The technical structure is clearly bearish, confirming USD weakness across the board. → This negative correlation aligns with macro expectations: a weaker dollar is fueling gold’s bullish momentum. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis – Macro Drivers US PPI & CPI both come in lower than expected: Inflation is showing clear signs of cooling. Markets are now pricing in a possible rate cut as early as June. Shift in Fed tone – from hawkish to neutral: While not officially declared, recent Fed statements have been more dovish, supporting risk assets and weakening the dollar. Strong safe-haven demand remains: Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty continue to push capital into gold, especially as USD enters a weakening phase. 🧭 Long-Term Perspective Gold is potentially entering a new bull cycle. With consecutive ATH breakouts and favorable macro conditions (falling inflation, expected rate cuts, USD weakness), gold could push to even higher levels into Q2 and Q3. The USD faces downside pressure in the coming months, especially if the Fed signals a firm pivot toward easing. ⚠️ Strategy Caution Short-term corrections may occur, especially after such a sharp rise. However, any pullbacks into key support zones could present strategic long opportunities for longer-term investors. 💬 What’s Your Take? Is this the beginning of a major bull cycle in gold, or do you expect deeper pullbacks before continuation? Drop your analysis and charts below! 👇👇👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
4
Gold & Silver Soar: Trade War RallyAnatomy of a Rally: How US-China Trade Tensions Propelled Gold to Record Highs and Lifted Silver Introduction The global financial landscape is frequently reshaped by geopolitical events, and few have cast as long a shadow in recent memory as the trade tensions between the United States and China. During periods of heightened friction, characterized by escalating tariffs, retaliatory measures, and pervasive economic uncertainty, markets often witness significant shifts in asset allocation. One of the most prominent beneficiaries during such times is gold. This document explores the dynamics behind gold prices reaching record highs amidst a US-China trade war, examining the multifaceted reasons for its ascent and noting the concurrent, significant rise in silver prices, which often move in tandem with the yellow metal due to overlapping market drivers. The US-China Trade War: A Catalyst for Uncertainty The trade conflict between the world's two largest economies represents more than just a dispute over tariffs and trade balances. It embodies a fundamental clash over technology, intellectual property, global influence, and differing economic models. The imposition of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods creates direct economic consequences: 1. Increased Costs: Businesses face higher import costs, which can be absorbed (reducing profits), passed onto consumers (potentially fueling inflation), or lead to shifts in supply chains (causing disruption and inefficiency). 2. Reduced Trade Flows: Tariffs act as barriers, potentially dampening global trade volumes and impacting export-oriented economies. 3. Economic Growth Concerns: The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies makes businesses hesitant to invest and expand, potentially leading to slower global economic growth or even recessionary fears. 4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Companies reliant on cross-border supply chains face significant operational challenges, needing to find alternative suppliers or routes, often at higher costs and lower efficiency. 5. Currency Volatility: Trade disputes can lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly involving the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, adding another layer of risk for international businesses and investors. This pervasive uncertainty becomes a powerful driver pushing investors towards assets perceived as safe. Gold: The Quintessential Safe Haven Gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset is deeply ingrained in financial history. During times of economic stress, political instability, or market turmoil, investors flock to gold for several key reasons, all amplified by a US-China trade war: 1. Store of Value: Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued by inflation or government policy, gold is seen as retaining its intrinsic value over the long term. Fears that trade wars could lead to competitive currency devaluations or necessitate inflationary monetary policies (like extensive quantitative easing) make gold particularly attractive. 2. Hedging Against Uncertainty: When the outlook for traditional assets like stocks and bonds becomes cloudy due to geopolitical risks like a trade war, gold offers a perceived refuge. Its price often exhibits a low or negative correlation to equity markets during downturns, making it valuable for portfolio diversification. 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Major international conflicts or tensions invariably add a risk premium to gold prices. A trade war between global superpowers significantly elevates perceived geopolitical risk, prompting safe-haven buying. 4. Weakening US Dollar Potential: While the US dollar itself can act as a safe haven, a protracted trade war could raise questions about the US economic outlook or lead to policies aimed at weakening the dollar to boost exports. Since gold is typically priced in US dollars globally, a weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially increasing demand and pushing the dollar price higher. 5. Central Bank Demand: In an environment of heightened geopolitical tension and questions surrounding the dominance of the US dollar, central banks (particularly those in emerging markets or nations seeking to reduce reliance on the USD) often increase their gold reserves. This diversification strategy provides a steady source of demand, underpinning prices. A US-China trade conflict could accelerate this trend among various nations. 6. The Mechanics of the Price Surge The record high in gold prices isn't just a passive reaction; it's driven by active market dynamics: • Increased Investor Demand: Retail and institutional investors increase allocations to gold through physical bullion, gold futures contracts, and gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Large inflows into major gold ETFs are often a visible indicator of this heightened demand. • Speculative Activity: Traders in the futures market anticipate further price increases driven by the ongoing trade tensions and safe-haven flows, adding upward momentum. • Sentiment: Market psychology plays a crucial role. As prices rise and news headlines focus on the trade war and gold's rally, a positive feedback loop can emerge, drawing in more buyers afraid of missing out (FOMO). Silver's Ascent: Riding Gold's Coattails and Its Own Merits Silver prices registering a steep rise alongside gold during such a period is a common phenomenon, though its drivers are slightly more complex: 1. Monetary Asset Correlation: Silver, like gold, has a long history as a monetary metal and store of value. It often trades as "poor man's gold," attracting investors seeking safe-haven exposure at a lower price point per ounce. During strong gold rallies driven by macroeconomic fear, silver typically follows suit. 2. Industrial Demand Component: Unlike gold, silver has significant industrial applications (electronics, solar panels, medical devices). This is a double-edged sword during a trade war. While safe-haven demand pulls prices up, fears of a trade-war-induced global economic slowdown could theoretically dampen industrial demand, potentially capping silver's gains relative to gold. However, in scenarios where safe-haven buying dominates market sentiment, this factor often takes a backseat initially. 3. Higher Volatility: Silver markets are smaller and typically more volatile than gold markets. This means that significant inflows driven by safe-haven sentiment can lead to sharper percentage gains (and potentially sharper losses during corrections) compared to gold. The "steep rise" noted is characteristic of silver's higher beta. 4. Gold-Silver Ratio: Traders often watch the gold-silver ratio (the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold). When this ratio reaches historical extremes, some investors may buy silver, betting that it is undervalued relative to gold and that the ratio will revert closer to its historical mean. A major gold rally can stretch this ratio, triggering such trades and boosting silver demand. Global Trends and Context While the US-China trade war serves as a potent catalyst, it often occurs within a broader context of global trends that can support precious metal prices. These might include accommodative monetary policies from major central banks (low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold), existing geopolitical hotspots beyond the US-China relationship, concerns about sovereign debt levels, or nascent inflationary pressures. The trade war acts as an accelerant, amplifying the impact of these underlying factors on gold and silver. Conclusion The surge of gold prices to record highs during a period marked by an intense US-China trade war is a textbook example of the metal fulfilling its traditional role as a premier safe-haven asset. The conflict breeds deep economic uncertainty, stokes fears of currency devaluation, heightens geopolitical risk perception, and potentially influences central bank reserve policies – all factors that historically drive capital towards gold. The simultaneous sharp rise in silver prices underscores its strong correlation with gold as a monetary asset, benefiting from the same wave of risk aversion, albeit with the added complexity of its industrial demand profile. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors navigating volatile periods, highlighting gold's enduring appeal as a portfolio diversifier and a refuge when storm clouds gather over the global economy, particularly when sparked by friction between major world powers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY In Difficult Circumstances Since the Start 80's I decided to give a go at the Dollar Index given the circumstances around the world. And to be honest, I tried to put on the positive glasses. I believe the dollar has been in a complex correction since the mid 80's. Starting out with a large dump in '85 with the a-wave, the correction slowed down and only grew more and more complex. Thought about current wave: What I believe we are going through now is, that we are finishing up the purple C-wave in a green (C)-wave. This wave can end at any time now, since it's now at the 61.8% fib level of the purple A-wave. But it might go down to the 95 level (The green box) to complete at the 100% fiblevel of the purple A-Wave. But first we will have the fourth wave meaning the DXY is gonna struggle for some weeks. Because we had a swift two week wave 2, which means we are probably going have a slow fourth wave according to the rule of alternation. This mean the purple C-wave could drag out into the end of '25 into early '26. This is also with that in mind that a C-wave most likely will take longer than an A-wave. These are the Purple boxes. BUT, after this, DXY is gonna experience some happy years again, going back up to the yellow box somewhere between 110 and 120 to finish the WXY of x of the larger degree. This will take DXY into a couple of years bull-run as long as the green (C) wave runs and completes no earlier than late '27, depending when the purple C-wave prior to the green (C) wave ends. But I believe the green (C)-wave will take about two years to complete. But after this, DXY could again go into some dark ages and considering the high degree purple w-wave took 23 years to complete (blue giant box), there is no reason to believe this high degree purple y-wave will be a swift matter and actually don't complete before the year 2050. And it will take the DXY all the down to start 60's or lower. The reason I said I tried to put on the positive glasses, is that I tried seeing the white channel as a leading diagonal for a new bull run, but I just don't see it as such. I also tried seeing it as a C-wave of a flat diagonal, but this would result in another C-wave afterwards, and also take us down to the 60's level. So that didn't do us any good. For the sake of DXY, I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I see it.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
2
DXY: Summer CRASH but here is why it will SKYROCKET after.The U.S. Dollar Index is oversold on both its 1D and 1W technical outlooks but on the 1M it just turned bearish (RSI = 42.641, MACD = 0.810, ADX = 21.680). This is because it crossed under its 1M MA50 for the first time since January 2022. For more than 3 years the 1M MA50 has kept it on the upper side of the 2008 Channel Up but now the time has come for it to aim at its bottom as every time it broke under it, the pattern dropped more and made a bottom a few months later. We anticipate a bottom around July, ideally with the 1M RSI inside our Target Zone, which consists of the last two lows. Then the new bullish wave of the pattern should begin, reaching the January 2025 High by the end of 2026. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXY
by InvestingScope
1
DXY Drops to 3-Year Lows, EURUSD Soars to 1.14With the 3-Day RSI hovering near 2020 highs, the monthly chart shows potential for further upside as EURUSD breaks out of a long-term downtrend channel that began from the 2008 highs. The pair has reached a high of 1.1470, aligning with the 0.272 Fibonacci retracement of the 2008–2022 downtrend. A sustained hold above 1.15 opens the door for further gains toward resistance levels at 1.1730, 1.20, and 1.2350. On the downside, if overbought conditions on lower time frames lead to a pullback below 1.1270, potential support levels to monitor include 1.1140, 1.1070,1.09, and 1.0850, - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
1
USD Breakdown – Trump, Tariffs, and the End of King Dollar?📉 USD Breakdown – Trump, Tariffs, and the End of King Dollar? In my February post, I said: 2025 would be the Year of the Normalized Dollar — where political pressure meets policy hesitation. Now that scenario is unfolding. The dollar is unwinding. The technicals are confirming it. And the macro backdrop? Only intensifying the move. 📊 Chart Breakdown 100.95 — the key mid-level — is now broken That level is resistance Target remains 94.00 — the zone I first called as a bottom back in 2020 From that zone, I called the bull run. Now, we’re completing the circle. The King Dollar move is done. 🌐 Macro Pressure Mounts CPI cooled to 2.4% Trump wants a weaker dollar to push exports Tariffs are back — and escalating The Fed is paused , but still under fire to cut rates Meanwhile: 🇨🇳 China is accumulating gold aggressively 🪙 Gold is at all-time highs 🧠 Bitcoin is rising as the U.S.'s digital hard asset hedge ⚔️ This Isn’t Just a Chart — It’s a Shift What we’re watching is more than a breakdown in DXY. It’s the realignment of monetary confidence: → Gold for protection → Bitcoin for evolution → Dollar for... survival? The breakdown in USD may be normalizing on the surface... But underneath it’s signaling a changing of the guard. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:DXYShort
by FX_Professor
13
DXY Breakdown: Bearish Momentum Builds Amid Weak U.S. DataThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining a clear bearish trajectory, with price action on the H4 chart showing a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel. The technical structure points to continued selling pressure, and recent fundamental developments only reinforce this view. 📰 Key drivers behind the decline: The latest U.S. CPI data came in weaker than expected, signaling easing inflationary pressure and fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. A slight uptick in jobless claims has raised concerns that the U.S. labor market may be losing momentum. Simultaneously, global players like China and Japan are shifting toward more stable monetary policy, prompting capital flows away from the dollar. 📉 From a technical perspective, DXY has broken below the key 100.817 support zone and is now trading around 99.7. Each attempt at a bullish pullback has been short-lived, with sellers regaining control quickly. The green arrows on the chart indicate potential reaction zones, but the descending channel structure remains firmly intact. Outlook: If the index fails to reclaim the 100.8 – 101.3 resistance area, there’s a high probability of further downside toward the 98.5 – 98.0 support region. In short, DXY is under pressure both technically and fundamentally, which explains the current bullish momentum in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and especially gold (XAU/USD).
TVC:DXYShort
by Jack97_Trading
Dollar Index Tests Key Demand Zone: What's Next?The Dollar Index is currently testing a major demand zone between 99.50 and 101. This area has marked the end of downward moves and the beginning of dollar rallies five times since early 2023. The recent downward pressure is largely driven by rising expectations of an economic slowdown and a strengthening euro. At this point, several possible scenarios could unfold, depending on how the market reacts to this key support zone: Repeat of the Past: Just like the previous five instances, the Dollar Index rebounds sharply from the zone and starts a strong upward move. Trendline Test: The Dollar Index breaks below this zone and moves toward testing the long-term uptrend line that originated in 2011. Fakeouts and Reversal: The Dollar Index briefly falls below the demand zone, approaches the long-term trendline, and then stages a false recovery above the zone. After trapping both bulls and bears and creating a fake breakout signal, it dips below the trendline before reversing and beginning a new medium-term uptrend that ultimately aligns above the long-term trend. Given the high level of global economic uncertainty and recent sharp reversals in financial markets, the third scenario may carry slightly higher probability. A similar pattern played out in 2017, when both the 200-week moving average and the demand zone were broken. The key difference this time is that TVC:DXY is much closer to the long-term trendline.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
DeGRAM | DXY broke the triangle downwardDXY is in a descending channel under a triangle. The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel, resistance level and upper trendline, which previously acted as a pullback point. The chart failed to form an ascending structure, but it formed a harmonic pattern and broke down the mirror support level, which now acts as resistance. On the main timeframes, the relative strength index is below 50 points. We expect the decline to continue. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYShort
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EUR/USD? EUR/USD has broken above the resistance zone and is currently trading above the breakout level. A pullback to the broken level is expected before the next bullish move. Once the pullback is complete, we anticipate a continuation of the uptrend toward the specified target. Holding above the broken resistance would reinforce the bullish outlook. Will EUR/USD maintain momentum after the pullback? Share your views below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
8
US DOLLAR at Key Support: Will Price Rebound to 103.000TVC:DXY is currently approaching an important support zone, an area where the price has previously shown bullish reactions. This level aligns closely with the psychological $100 , which tends to have strong market attention. The recent momentum suggests that buyers could step in and drive the price higher. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a bounce from this level. If I'm right and buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 103.00 level. However, a breakout below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to more even more downside. This is not financial advice!
TVC:DXYLong
by TrendDiva
26
DeGRAM | DXY seeks to close the gapDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines. The price is moving from the support level, which has already acted as a reversal point twice. During the decline, the chart formed a gap and afterwards formed an inverted hammer and a harmonic pattern. On the 1H Timeframe, the Relative Strength Index is in the oversold zone and indicates bullish convergence. We expect the index to head towards the gap after breaking the 38.2% retracement level. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
1
DXY Will Move Higher! Long! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 102.170. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 102.904 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1