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DXY

XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of an upward correction by the FOMC today, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Donald Trump’s victory in the Tuesday presidential election could alter the economic outlook of the United States and influence the Federal Reserve’s policies in the coming months. Concerns about how much pressure Trump might exert on the U.S. central bank in his second term have resurfaced. In his campaign, Trump has pledged to impose stricter tariffs on America’s trading partners, deport millions of unauthorized immigrants, and extend the tax cuts approved in 2017. If these policies are implemented, they could exert upward pressure on prices, wages, and budget deficits, creating significant challenges for the Federal Reserve. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will face increased obstacles in achieving its 2% inflation target while maintaining employment levels. Furthermore, if Trump continues his pattern of public criticism of Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, the U.S. central bank may find itself under political scrutiny. The Federal Reserve officials have decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points today, following a half-point reduction in September. The September forecasts indicate another quarter-point cut for December and a full one-percentage-point cut planned for 2025. Following the rate announcement, Powell is likely to address questions in a press conference about the impact of the election on Fed policies. During Trump’s first term, he faced repeated criticism from him, and recently, Trump has criticized Powell for delays in policy decisions.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver Vs FOMC?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the FOMC today, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, silver can be sold within the specified supply zone. World Bank analysts believe that silver is a precious metal worth monitoring in 2025. The World Bank has recently updated its commodity market forecasts. While gold is expected to maintain its strong performance within the broader market, analysts have forecasted weaker demand extending from next year through 2026. The analysts noted, “Demand for gold from central banks and the jewelry sector, which together constitute about two-thirds of global demand, is likely to decrease due to unprecedented high prices.” Nevertheless, the World Bank sees greater potential in silver, given expectations that rising demand and limited supply will help support prices. World Bank analysts further stated, “Silver demand is anticipated to increase steadily in the forecast horizon, driven by its dual financial and industrial uses.” With supply growth lagging behind the positive factors supporting demand, silver prices are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026, following an expected 20% increase in 2024. Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold by 2025, as it is currently priced well below its intrinsic value. Nomura believes that a second Trump administration would focus heavily on tariff and tax policies, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve will respond prudently to these changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, followed by a single cut in 2025, and then take a prolonged pause on further cuts.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies. Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations. George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked. According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
EURUSD map: Down to 1.04-1.00 Then Up to 1.16-1.21EURUSD is in the second leg down to complete a complex correction (red down arrows). There are three crucial target points for drop to watch: 1) Valley of red leg 1 at 1.0448 and 50% Fib at 1.0406 2) 61.8% Fib at 1.0200 3) Touch point of the throwback to broken trendline around parity Next is the reversal to upside within the large leg 2 up (blue up arrows). The possible targets depend on the depth of the current drop, the deeper the lower the upside target. From the first point of drop EURUSD could hit 1.21 area. From the lowest valley of parity it could reach 1.16 handle.
by aibek
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 105.42 1st Support: 104.65 1st Resistance: 106.13 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 10/21/2024Good morning, I will be monitoring the daily candle close today, anticipating a bullish pullback or reversal to develop over the next few weeks. Several indicators have pointed to this: 1. The weekly chart has surpassed the previous high established on December 25, 2023. Currently, the price is attempting to retest the Demand zone that led to the breakout of that high.. 2. The weekly demand zone is identified between 1.0775 and 1.0825. Pay attention to the key level at 1.080, as it appears to be setting up as a robust support level for the currency pair. 3. The market has declined approximately 400 points since September 27, 2024, showing minimal pullbacks on a daily basis. Notably, this price drop has formed a double top without a genuine next line test. I anticipate that prices will rebound to around 1.100 in the coming weeks. A break below 1.100 could trigger a long-term retracement back to the highs at 1.200. Volume signature indicates that market makers are gradually exiting the trend. The weekly outlook remains bullish and is expected to dominate. It's important to note that the weekly chart is currently retesting the bearish flag it broke out of between June 24, 2024, and August 19, 2024. TVC:DXY OANDA:EURUSD XETR:DAX
Long
by ThePipAssassin
17
Post Election Bitcoin and Crypto Market UpdateThis is a shorter version of my video yesterday, just recapping what I've been seeing and forecasting in these markets. Didn't expect to see the rally to new ATH so quickly. Or the DXY to push up higher at the same time... But here we are breaking and apparently holding new ATH, so I do think we continue to push higher. Even if we get one more sell off, to re-test the ATH as support. Yesterday's pump was part short-squeeze, and part SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in BTC ETF inflows. In this video we look at BTC and SOL, which I believe will lead the next leg of the Bull. Also an interesting speculative study on the Pi Cycle Top, and the idea we could see a double top or dual-cycle in the next 12 months, like we did in 2013. As well as recapping why my targets are $100k (conservative), $150k (base case), and $200k (aggressive) along with confluent targets based on measured moves from the Bull Flag breakout. Let me know what you think, and if I missed anything! Brett
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
GOLD → Global reversal H&S. How far do we fall? FX:XAUUSD was looking pretty steady in the Asian session until the press came out with their statements before Trump's speech. The fundamental background is weakening, but there are positive nuances from the news.... There is one last vote left, but Trump has a 99% chance of winning. Markets believe his policies will put upward pressure on inflation, treasury yields and the US dollar, which could have an overall negative impact on the XAU BUT, there is a possibility that in the long term, the gold price will also benefit from the new president's policies as Trump's foreign policy related to China and Europe could cause unrest and panic in the market Sentiment around the US election will play a key role in gold price movement ahead of the US Fed policy announcement due on Thursday. Technically, gold is giving hints of a possible reversal by forming a classic H&S pattern. The main support is at 2708 Resistance levels: 2731, 2735, 2749 Support levels: 2724, 2713, 2708, 2689 Also, H1 is starting to show a local descending channel. Before the official verdict of the vote, the price can still test these resistance areas, but later the market may turn around and start a gradual decline until the end of market-wide euphoria.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
How the U.S. Election Outcome Could Shape DXY's pathHey Traders! In today’s trading session, we’re closely watching the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 102.800 zone. Recently, DXY has been trending downward but managed to break out of that downtrend, signaling a possible shift in momentum. Right now, it’s in a corrective phase and approaching the retracement level near the 102.800 support and resistance zone. Fundamental Analysis: U.S. Election Impact on the Dollar Today’s election could significantly impact the U.S. dollar, with the outcome likely to shape future economic policies. Here’s how each candidate’s policies might influence DXY: If Trump Wins: A Trump victory is expected to strengthen the dollar. Here’s why: Higher Inflation and Interest Rates: Trump’s policies, including potential tariffs and stricter immigration, are seen as inflationary. Tariffs can increase the cost of imported goods, while reduced immigration may create labor shortages, both driving inflation higher. Federal Reserve’s Stance: Higher inflation would prompt the Fed to reconsider future rate cuts and possibly lean toward raising rates to control inflation. Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive, as investors seek better returns. Tax Cuts and Economic Boost: Trump’s proposed tax cuts are likely to stimulate economic growth in the short term. A booming economy typically supports a stronger dollar as investors favor a robust market. In this scenario, DXY would likely respond positively, and we could see a strong upward movement. If Harris Wins: On the other hand, a Harris victory could weaken the dollar due to different policy priorities: Lower Inflation and More Fed Flexibility: Harris’s policies are expected to focus more on economic support, potentially through spending programs and fewer tariffs. Lower inflationary pressure gives the Fed more room to keep rates low or even consider cuts. Market Reaction: Investors may anticipate a slower economic rebound, favoring a weaker dollar, as demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar could decrease. Your vote is very important! Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
1
The Best Level to Short EURUSD TP +120/+240 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the 6hour chart for EURUSD today. As expected previously we are getting a normal bounce off the fresh demand zone at 0800 currently closing on heavy overhead mirror s/r resistance. 🔸This setup falls in-line with my strategic outlook for EURUSD which is targeting 0500, review via link: 🔸Key mirror S/R detected at 0925/0945, most likely further upside is very limited in EURUSD so expecting fresh sell-side pressure and reversal from the key s/r zone. Bears will target fresh demand zone near 0700. 🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders: focus on short selling high near 0925/0945 price cluster SL fixed at 40 pips TP1 +120 pips TP2 +240 pips final exit at 0700. Expecting rejection from overhead resistance and re-test of the mirror S/R level at 0700. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
28
XAUUSD - Will Trump cause gold to fall?If gold reaches the bottom of the descending channel, which is also in response to the demand zone, we can look for gold buying positions. Donald Trump won in Wisconsin and got 10 electoral votes, and Trump's total electoral votes reached 277 electoral votes. In this way, Donald Trump became the 47th president of the United States. The rise in long-term interest rates and the broad sell-off across the Treasury yield curve reflect public expectations for an inflationary mix of domestic (fiscal and immigration) and foreign (tariffs) policies from Trump. Also, we see movements in short-term US dollar swap rates related to the hawkish revision of Fed interest rate expectations. In line with forecasts and public expectation, markets still expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% tomorrow.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 105.033. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 103.770 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
2