Get started

DXY

Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD a local downtrend channel breakout damages sellers. The fundamental background is changing despite continued USD buying and a generally risk-off environment, which is overall positive for gold as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis. The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities. Despite the optimism for the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from the escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions are likely to consolidate for sellers before further strengthening. Technically, gold has every chance to test the boundaries of the previously broken channel, but based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue. Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
2
Interesting facts of the week: What to expect next?Hello traders and investors! The past week brought several interesting events that may impact the situation's development in the coming days. The U.S. Dollar Index has reached the upper boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 106.952. There might be an attempt to reverse the long trend, with the idea of executing the seller’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 99.807 and 99.099). The Euro against the Dollar has reached the lower boundary of its range on the weekly timeframe at 1.04485. There might be an attempt to reverse the short trend, with the idea of executing the buyer’s vector within the range on the weekly timeframe (potential targets are 1.12142 and 1.12757). Gold , after bouncing off the 50% level (2538.5) of the last monthly buyer’s impulse, has broken through 2710.52, which was the beginning of the last seller’s impulse on the daily timeframe. On the weekly timeframe, there was a manipulation (false breakout) of the level where the last buyer’s impulse started (2604.39), and the weekly bar is impressive with its spread. On the one hand, there is an opportunity to look for buys, but on the other hand, a seller may appear just above in the 2721–2759 range. Let’s see who will win the battle for the 2710.52 level. SPX500 . The buyer is defending the breakout from the range on the daily timeframe. The buyer has absorbed the seller’s attack bar from November 15 (which had high volume) on the upper boundary of the range at 5891.6. As a result, a buyer’s zone has formed on the upper boundary of the range (upper edge of the zone is 5975.6). Additionally, the price dipped below the 50% level of the last buyer’s impulse on the daily timeframe. You can look for buying opportunities if the buyer reactivates from this zone. Good luck with your trading and investments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: USD INDEX Is Still Bullish!November 25 -28th The DXY is still showing strength, but can pull back at any time. After breaching a Swing High, a pullback is naturally expected. But until it gives a bearish BOS, I am still buying the USD. Don't be too quick to start selling! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
1
GOLD → Why is the metal rising? A chance to upgrade ATH to 2800?FX:XAUUSD rallies and seeks to renew the local maximum. The fundamental background is changing in favor of the metal, to which aggressive buyers are running... Gold is not reacting to the dollar rally and hawkish Fed rate statements. Markets now rate the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December at 51%, up from 84% a week ago. The reason for the metal's rally is paramount to the escalating conflict in Eastern Europe. The US Democrats have untied the hands Ukraine, which has caused Russia to change its nuclear doctrine and lower its threshold for retaliatory decisions. The conflict, fundamentally, is taking a more serious side. Gold, as a hedge asset in times of crisis, is soaking up investor money and feeling strong buyer support Technically, we are getting a high probability that the metal can update ATH to 2800-2850. Resistance levels: 2710, 2731, 2750 Support levels: 2689, 2680, 2674 There is strong resistance ahead, which may trigger a correction to the nearest liquidity zones, but we are not talking about reversals. The correction may end quickly and the price will go into the bull run phase again. Medium-term targets are 2731-2750 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17
EURUSD → Consolidation “flag”. Willingness to go below...FX:EURUSD is forming a consolidation in the “flag” format, the purpose of which, in the current situation, is to accumulate the potential for continuation of the trend... Fundamental background is still negative. On D1 we can clearly see the consolidation below the key level of 1.0600 after a strong fall. There is no proper and logical reaction in the form of a pullback. Accordingly, based on this we can conclude that the dynamics and strength of the buyer is not enough to reverse the local situation. The dollar is starting the recovery phase again, which may put pressure on the euro. Technically, the emphasis on consolidation “flag”. The exit of the price from the boundaries of this channel will provoke further movement. Resistance levels: 1.0606 Support levels: 1.0521, 1.044 It is not worth trading inside the flag. The exception is a retest of resistance. Opening an order is acceptable after a false breakout. But, the emphasis is on 1.052. Breakout and fixing of the price below this zone can strengthen the fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
USDCHF - Who is the next head of the Fed?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is considering options to choose Kevin Warsh as Treasury Secretary, and it is possible that he will later be nominated to head the Federal Reserve. The decision is still undecided, and Trump will likely make his final decision near the end of Jerome Powell's term in May 2026. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, the Bridgewater company has announced that Trump may choose the chairman of the Federal Reserve who will follow his policies more. Because of Trump's economic policies, the US may not be able to reach the 2% inflation target. Trump's plans may increase costs and thus favor the stock market over bonds. Bob Prince, Bridgewater's chief investment officer, said Trump's policies on tariffs, fiscal stimulus and immigration are likely to keep the U.S. from reaching its 2 percent inflation target. If U.S. inflation approaches 3 percent over the next year and a half, Trump may appoint a Fed chairman who is aligned with a higher inflation target and allows interest rates to fall. Also, Goolsby, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has predicted that interest rates will drop significantly next year. Referring to the significant reduction in inflation and the state of the labor market, he expressed confidence that the inflation is moving towards the 2% target of the central bank and that the labor market has reached the level of almost full and stable employment.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI - oil on fire!WTI oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the upward trend continues and the ceiling of the channel is broken, one can first look for positions to buy it and then look for positions to sell oil in the supply zone. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next positions to buy oil with the appropriate risk reward. Oil prices climbed as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Following Ukraine’s announcement that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting the central city of Dnipro, Brent crude rose to $74 per barrel. Previously, Ukraine had primarily relied on long-range weaponry supplied by Western nations. If confirmed, this missile strike would mark the first use of such a weapon since its development during the Cold War era. In recent days, additional bullish signals for oil prices have emerged. Refinery product premiums relative to crude oil have reached multi-month highs. In the United States, as fuel producers along the coasts ramped up production to meet rising export demand, profit margins for converting crude oil into gasoline and diesel hit record levels. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant oil production cuts for an extended period due to weak global demand. Analysts and insiders suggest that the OPEC+ meeting in December will face major constraints in determining production policy. While increasing production amid weak demand could be risky, further cuts may prove challenging as some members push to raise output. OPEC+, which includes Russia and produces nearly half of the world’s oil, has repeatedly delayed its gradual production increase plans this year. Meanwhile, rising gas prices are creating tough challenges for European policymakers as they brace for a harsh winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, argues that Europe has yet to fully grasp the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He asserts that the continent has mistaken recent strategic successes for mere weather-related luck, but the situation has now deteriorated. This points to another winter of high gas and electricity prices, placing significant pressure on energy-intensive industries. Many large-scale manufacturers have announced plant closures and asset write-downs, while households face surging retail energy prices. This inflationary trend will add further complications for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, twice the February lows and 130% above the 2010-2020 average. Wall Street has raised concerns that a second Trump presidency could negatively impact oil prices, arguing that producers might ramp up drilling and production before facing Biden-era regulatory pressures. However, another faction in Wall Street suggests this narrative is incomplete. Standard Chartered points out that the nature of U.S. shale oil production makes it difficult to sustain long-term supply increases. Unlike OPEC producers, whose output is often controlled by state-owned oil companies, U.S. production is dominated by several large corporations, independent producers, and private firms. This perspective aligns with Goldman Sachs’ analysis. In July, Goldman Sachs predicted that U.S. crude oil production would grow by 500,000 barrels per day this year, a slower pace compared to last year’s 1 million barrels per day increase. Nevertheless, the U.S. will account for 60% of non-OPEC supply growth, with the Permian Basin expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day annually—lower than the initial forecast of 520,000 barrels per day made by Wall Street analysts.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → The fundamental backdrop is changing, as are the targets$FX:XAUSUD breaks local trend and makes sellers nervous. The fundamental background is changing despite the growth of the dollar, which is generally positive for gold as a safe asset in times of crisis The dollar rallied strongly on Wednesday as traders increased optimism on Trump's dealings, digesting hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. Despite the hawkish shift in Fed expectations and the optimism of the overall market syuttaion on the dollar, the gold price held up and benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Against the backdrop of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, the gold price is likely to be firm, but upcoming Fed comments could strengthen sellers. Technically, gold has all chances to test the previously broken channel boundary, but based on the technical and fundamentals, we can conclude that further growth may continue. Resistance levels: 2665, 2686, 2700 Support levels: 2643, 2627 The price is heading towards the zone of liquidity and interest, from which a correction may be formed, after which the market may resume the growth of gold, as the interest to the metal as a hedge asset has returned. Medium-term targets could be 2700-2750 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
8
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range. Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures. The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%. Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending. BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks: Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry. Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
Long
by Ali_PSND