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Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 109.59 1st Support: 107.46 1st Resistance: 111.96 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1
XAUUSD 19/01/25This week, our analysis on XAU continues with the same bullish bias from last week. After a clean bullish shift last week, we anticipate gold to maintain its upward momentum. As always, Orion guides us on the trading direction, and we follow accordingly. Currently, we are targeting lows as potential buy zones and highs as key levels to trade into. With recent developments, including Trump becoming president and the current moves in gold, another bullish run appears to be the most probable scenario. Stick to the plan, trade from the lows into the highs, and always manage your risk effectively. Trade safe, follow Orion, and stay disciplined.
FX:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 19/01/25 Here's the revised version without bullet points: This week marks a special occasion as we celebrate the birthday of our head mentor! Heading into the week, we maintain the same bias as last week: focus on the lows being taken out, while the highs serve as key entry areas. The game plan is straightforward. Look for a solid pullback to sell into the lows, or wait for the lows to be run and then target a pullback to current highs or newly formed highs yet to emerge. Our bias remains bearish, so patience is key. Wait for a run on the highs before taking action. There’s no need to overcomplicate things—if you’ve been following Orion, everything is already in place. Trade safely, trust Orion, and always stick to your risk management plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
DXY - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Today, I want to share my personal view on the Dollar Index (DXY) with you. Based on what I see on the chart, I expect the Dollar Index (DXY) to reach the resistance zone of 110.668 to 110.877 . After a small pullback, I anticipate it will start its bullish movement upwards. If the 107.750 level breaks downward and consolidates on the 1H timeframe, a further decline could follow. 📈 Expectation: After a minor pullback, the DXY is likely to initiate a bullish movement and continue its upward trend. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 110.668 - 110.877 💬 What’s your view on the Dollar Index this week? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
TVC:DXYLong
by PouyanTradeFX
DXY - OVERBOUGHT = Risk On in Near Term = GainsThe DXY RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. Don't need to over think this one. I'm looking for a mean reversion. On average, it appears a DXY pull back is +/-12%. $102-$98 is the level I'm watching for the short/medium term for the DXY. I imagine it strengthens again in the future, but it's offside at the current moment. Stonks, BTC, & Crypto are looking prime for a risk on environment & substantial gains - for at least the short to medium term - if the DXY sells off. Either way, it's looking like the DXY will need to mean revert in the near term. BULLISH.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitInfo12
EUR/USD Poised for Growth: Key Levels and Targets Ahead! (READ)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the three-day timeframe, we observe that the price is still trading around the 1.030 level, and I expect an upward move from this pair soon. With the Dollar Index likely to decline further, this could support EUR/USD's growth. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the key upside target remains 1.044, while the significant demand levels are at 1.020, 1.005, and 0.99. Keep an eye on these levels for potential opportunities! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban The Main Analysis :
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
GOLD → Correction after a false breakout. What's next?FX:XAUUSD reaches a key resistance that stops a strong rally. A false breakdown triggered a correction, which could be a chance for comfortable buys. The gold price stabilized around $2,725 after a three-day climb, remaining under profit taking pressure. Strong data on China's economy failed to inspire the market as real estate concerns and possible U.S. tariffs dampened optimism. Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold despite mixed data on the US labor market and retail sales. The Fed chief's statements about possible rate cuts in the first half of the year are adding support to the metal. Next week, traders' attention will be focused on US housing and industrial production data. Support levels: 2700, 2697 Resistance levels: 2712, 2721 Global and local trend is bullish. Counter-trend correction is being formed. Technically, the correction may reach the zone of interest 2700 - 2697, from which we should expect a rebound, for example, to 2712, or even the recovery of the bullish trend. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
XAUUSD - Gold reached above $2700!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the top of the channel, we can look for positions to sell it at the target of $2,700. The loss of the midline of the channel will lead to the continuation of this corrective process. Gold is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, although this growth may not match the impressive performance seen in 2024. Juan Carlos Artigas, the Head of Research at the World Gold Council, discussed the reasons behind this trend and outlined three possible scenarios for gold’s future in an interview with Kitco News. Artigas attributed gold’s record-breaking performance in 2024, which included 40 new highs, to the metal’s dual role as an investment asset and a consumer commodity. He stated, “Gold is an extremely effective risk management tool. Investors have turned to it due to rising market volatility and geopolitical risks.” For 2025, Artigas predicted three distinct scenarios for the gold market: • Limited growth with low volatility: This would occur if expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth remain stable. • Downward pressure: If interest rates remain high or rise further, gold’s investment appeal could diminish. Additionally, weak economic growth might lower consumer demand. • Significant growth: In the event of heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks, investors would likely view gold as a safe haven, driving prices higher. Artigas cautioned that government debt could emerge as a “black swan” event in 2025. He explained that rising global government debt levels and difficulties in securing financing pose a significant risk to the global economy. He further emphasized that gold’s performance against various currencies highlights its role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. For example, gold’s returns against the Turkish lira reached 50% in 2024 due to the lira’s depreciation against the US dollar. Additionally, Artigas pointed to increased demand from central banks and Western investors in the second half of 2024. This surge in demand was attributed to lower central bank interest rates and reduced opportunity costs for holding gold. Among all commodities, gold remains one of the few assets that analysts at BMO Capital Markets are optimistic about for 2025. They predict that central banks will continue purchasing gold to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Furthermore, BMO expects gold to remain a dynamic asset, serving as an effective hedge against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and stock market risks. Next week, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the next President of the United States. Meanwhile, the global community is bracing for the new administration, which has announced plans to impose tariffs to promote and protect domestic policies under the “America First” agenda. BMO analysts believe the Trump administration will be “inherently” inflationary. Their report noted, “The new administration has highlighted two clear policies that will dominate Trump’s second term. The first is that 2025 will be a year of tariff increases. Since tariffs function as a domestic tax on consumption borne by consumers, the economic consensus is that tariffs are inherently stagflationary.” They added, “The second key policy involves continued increases in government spending. Trump won the election on promises of tax cuts for corporations and individuals. According to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, these promises are expected to add approximately $7.75 trillion to the US national debt between 2026 and 2035.” BMO analysts also noted that rising inflationary pressures will likely lead to a decline in real interest rates, eroding the appeal of short-term bonds, which were a favored risk-free option in the previous year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators. In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices. The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
Daily Market Watchlist Analysis by Skeptic📊 Navigating the forex and crypto markets requires sharp analysis and timely decisions. Today, I'll break down my forex daily watchlist , analyzing key indices and commodities to uncover potential trading opportunities. Let's dive in, starting with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). 💲 DXY Analysis Timeframe: Daily & 4H Daily Chart: DXY has shown a strong bullish trend, recently rejecting the 110 resistance level and pulling back to a key support zone. There's potential for a bullish rebound towards 110, or even a breakout for further upside continuation. Fundamental Insight : Current fundamental data shows balanced supply and demand, causing market indecision. 4H Chart: Five consecutive neutral candles suggest indecisiveness. It's wise to reduce risk exposure, limit the number of trades, and tighten stop-losses until a clearer direction emerges. Trading Plan: Bullish Scenario: If DXY breaks above 110 with momentum, look for USD long positions across pairs. Neutral/Bearish Scenario: Stay cautious; avoid heavy exposure until the short-term trend clarifies. 🥇 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis Timeframe: Daily & 4H Daily Chart: Gold is correcting after its primary weekly bullish trend. Following a three-wave correction, it has resumed an uptrend within a rising channel, now facing significant resistance at 2718. A breakout could signal early entry for a move towards the 2789 high. 4H Chart: The ascending channel is more visible here. A potential pullback to the 2693 support zone could offer a solid buying opportunity. Trading Plan: Set a Buy Stop near 2718 with a safe stop-loss below the previous low or 2693. 📈 S&P 500 Index (SPX500) Analysis Timeframe: 4H After a bullish impulse reaching 5980, SPX500 is undergoing a healthy correction, signaling strength in the upward move. Watching for the RSI to revisit the 70 level and a resistance breakout for confirmation. For aggressive traders, the 5928 support zone offers a potential buy opportunity. Trading Plan: Conservative: Wait for RSI to confirm momentum and a breakout above resistance. Aggressive: Enter near 5928 with a tight stop-loss below the support level. 🚀Markets are showing signs of consolidation and indecision, making risk management crucial. Focus on high-probability setups and wait for clear confirmations before committing to trades. Which market are you focusing on today? Share your thoughts in the comments! ✍️I'm Skeptic , here to simplify trading and help you achieve mastery step by step. Let's keep growing together!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by SkepticWise
1
US dollar index remains elevated, but for how long?The US dollar index continues to show strength and with the potential reduction in the amount cuts this year by the Fed, there might be further strength of MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX . But could this be the case in the short-run? Let's dig in... TVC:DXY RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
11