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EURUSD Strategic Outlook 2025: 0.9000 end of year target🔸It's time to update the EURUSD outlook, this is weekly price chart, downtrend is well defined since 2012 and we recently got a strong rejection after distribution 🔸Based on technical outlook, EURUSD is set to hit 0.95 by summer 2025 and end the year at 0.9000. I don't see any upside beyond 1.05 in 2025. 🔸The key reason for further decline in EURUSD: Strong DXY, strong political leadership and weak political leadership in EU / weak economy. Below there is a summary of why EU zone is set to decline further based on fundies. 🔸Slow Economic Growth: The Eurozone has faced relatively sluggish economic growth compared to other regions. Factors like low productivity growth, weak domestic demand, and a high dependency on exports to slower-growing markets (such as China) contribute to this. Slow growth impacts investor sentiment and reduces the demand for the Euro. 🔸Demographic Issues: The Eurozone is dealing with an aging population, particularly in countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain. This demographic shift results in a shrinking labor force and increasing pressure on social services and pension systems, which weakens economic growth potential. 🔸High Energy Prices and Inflation: The Eurozone has been significantly impacted by energy price fluctuations, particularly following the geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine. High energy costs put a strain on businesses and consumers, eroding purchasing power and dampening economic activity. Additionally, inflation remains a challenge in many Eurozone countries, complicating the ECB's ability to stimulate growth without triggering further inflation. 🔸Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine, energy disruptions, and broader geopolitical risks have hurt European economies more severely than other regions. The Eurozone's reliance on Russian energy made it especially vulnerable to supply shocks, and the economic sanctions against Russia created ripple effects that continue to affect the region. 🔸Structural Issues in the Eurozone: The Eurozone faces structural challenges such as uneven economic conditions between member states, fiscal constraints (due to the Eurozone's common monetary policy), and a lack of fiscal unity. While Germany and France may have relatively strong economies, countries like Italy and Greece still struggle with high debt levels and low growth, which can drag down overall Eurozone performance. 🔸Tight Fiscal Policies: The EU's fiscal rules restrict how much debt individual member states can take on, which limits governments' ability to use fiscal stimulus to respond to crises. This can exacerbate economic stagnation and prevent the region from achieving sustainable growth. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
15
US Dollar Index (DXY) COnsolidating Within an Ascending ChannelChart Analysis: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trend higher within a well-defined ascending channel (green zone). The index has pulled back slightly but remains firmly within its bullish structure. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Price action remains within the channel, with current consolidation near the midline around 108.08. A move to test the upper or lower bounds of the channel could be next. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 105.69, acting as short-term dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 104.29, confirming the long-term bullish trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 65.34, indicating strong bullish momentum but nearing overbought levels, which may limit immediate upside. MACD: Bullish momentum remains intact, with the MACD line above zero, though the histogram suggests a potential slowdown. What to Watch: A move higher could target the upper channel boundary near 109.50–110.00, while a pullback may see support at the 50-day SMA near 105.69 or the channel's lower boundary. RSI and MACD movements will be key to gauging whether the bullish momentum can persist or if a deeper retracement is likely. The DXY remains in a bullish structure, with the ascending channel providing a clear technical framework for traders to monitor. -MW
NYSE:DIS
by FOREXcom
Gold: Navigating a Range-Bound Phase After the DropGold (XAU/USD): Consolidation in a Bearish Territory Amid Uncertainty The gold market has entered a consolidation phase, trading within a defined bearish range following a sharp sell-off on Wednesday. This pullback comes as the precious metal adjusts to a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors, with current attention focused on the critical price levels of 2622 – 2581. A deeper look into the backdrop reveals that sentiment remains subdued due to broader market dynamics, and the technical setup underscores the vulnerability of gold prices as they test recent lows. Fundamental Overview: Fed’s Conservative Stance and Market Implications The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday had ripple effects across global markets. Adopting a more cautious stance, the Fed announced plans for just two rate cuts in 2025. This decision disappointed investors hoping for a more dovish approach and weighed heavily on risk-sensitive assets, including gold. Meanwhile, the dollar emerged as the clear beneficiary, strengthening to new local highs as traders flocked to safe-haven assets tied to U.S. monetary policy. The dollar’s rally placed additional pressure on gold, which often moves inversely to the greenback. However, the broader implications extend beyond just this week. Gold's recent struggles highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic trends. Looking ahead, today’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—widely regarded as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—could introduce another layer of volatility. A surprise deviation from expectations in the PCE data, whether upward or downward, could significantly impact gold prices. Furthermore, any unexpected escalation in political uncertainty, whether domestic or international, has the potential to act as a short-term catalyst for the metal, possibly leading to a recovery attempt toward resistance levels. Technical Analysis: Testing the Lows in a High-Volatility Environment From a technical perspective, gold remains entrenched within a consolidation zone after the steep decline earlier this week. Such a pattern is not uncommon at this time of year, characterized by thin liquidity and heightened volatility as institutional players wind down for the calendar year. Price action suggests that the market is trading in a relatively wide range, bounded by key resistance levels at 2616 – 2622 and notable support levels at 2589, 2581, and 2560. Currently, prices hover near the lower end of this range, testing the support levels repeatedly. If the support at 2581 holds, it may trigger a short-term recovery toward the upper boundary of the range. However, any failure to defend these levels could lead to a retest of deeper support at 2560, further cementing the bearish outlook. Conversely, on the upside, resistance around 2616 – 2622 remains critical. A breakout above this zone may entice bullish momentum, but such a move is likely to be capped or short-lived, given the overarching fundamental headwinds. In fact, a retest of this resistance could result in a false breakout scenario, where prices temporarily breach the level before reversing sharply back into the range, targeting local lows. Trading Strategy and Broader Market Context For traders navigating the current environment, the focus should remain on the boundaries of the consolidation range. Range-bound strategies, such as buying near support and selling near resistance, could be effective in the short term. However, caution is warranted given the heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic events, including today’s PCE data release and potential geopolitical developments. In the longer term, the bearish undertone suggests that gold may continue its descent unless a significant shift in fundamentals alters the market narrative. Any sustained rally would require a combination of favorable catalysts, such as a dovish pivot from the Fed, a weakening dollar, or heightened geopolitical tensions. Conclusion Gold’s journey through this consolidation phase is emblematic of the broader uncertainty gripping financial markets. While the precious metal has shown resilience in the past, the current setup underscores the challenges it faces in a bearish environment. Resistance at 2616 – 2622 and support at 2581 – 2560 serve as pivotal levels to monitor, with price action within this range offering opportunities for tactical trades. In the grander scheme, the coming weeks will likely determine whether gold can break free from its consolidation or succumb to further selling pressure. As we approach the end of the year, reduced liquidity and heightened volatility will remain defining features of the market, setting the stage for potentially significant price swings in early 2024. (The market decides how much profit you make. You decide how much you lose.)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
XAUUSD - Gold will welcome the holidays?!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is trading in its short-term ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the channel, we can see the continuation of gold's decline and seeing the demand zone. Within the demand range of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the upward movement continues, gold can be sold in the supply zone. Without a doubt, 2024 has been the year of the US dollar. While high inflation continued to spread across Europe and other parts of the world in 2023, the Federal Reserve reported progress in controlling price growth. Similar to last year, other central banks have been more proactive in reducing interest rates, but the slow pace of inflation containment has delayed the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting process. Federal Reserve officials now anticipate only two 0.25% interest rate cuts in 2025. As a result, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tighter monetary stance compared to other major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, which is currently increasing its interest rates. This decision follows previous rate cuts implemented earlier this year, including a 50-basis-point reduction in September and a 25-basis-point cut in November. Overall, these measures have resulted in a full 1% decrease in the benchmark rate, signaling a shift in the Federal Reserve’s approach to the current economic environment. By lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve aims to stimulate consumption while continuing to monitor inflationary pressures. Although these pressures have generally subsided, they have slightly risen in recent months. Nonetheless, the decision to reduce rates could benefit borrowers by lowering consumer interest rates, making it more affordable to buy homes, secure personal loans, or borrow funds in other areas. However, the implications extend beyond lending. Adjustments to the Federal Reserve’s interest rates could create a complex environment for investors, particularly those drawn to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Historically, the relationship between interest rates and gold prices has been inversely proportional. Lower rates typically increase gold valuations, as the reduced cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold makes it more appealing, thereby driving up demand and prices. However, it is crucial to understand that the impact of interest rate decisions on gold prices operates within a broader network of interconnected factors beyond monetary policy. For investors considering adding gold to their portfolios, understanding this broader context is essential. In addition to Federal Reserve policies, one key driver of the gold market is central bank purchases, particularly by emerging economies seeking to diversify their reserves. These purchases have recently reached historic levels, providing substantial support for gold prices. Global trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and evolving industrial demand—especially from technology and renewable energy sectors—also add layers of complexity to the gold market. In the first quarter of this year, India’s central bank recorded a net purchase of 77 tons of gold, followed by Turkey’s central bank with 72 tons, increasing the share of gold in its foreign reserves to 34%. Poland, with a purchase of 69 tons, was the third-largest buyer, while China, traditionally the largest gold buyer in recent years, ranked fourth with less than 30 tons. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has predicted in its 2025 global outlook report that the coming year will be marked by increased geopolitical fragmentation and the formation of rival economic and political blocs. These developments are likely to accelerate the trend of de-dollarization and bolster gold purchases. Moreover, the strength of the US dollar continues to play a crucial role in gold pricing. However, factors such as relative economic growth rates, trade balances, and international capital flows can overshadow this influence.For instance, the dollar may strengthen if major economies face significant challenges or if investors seek safe-haven currencies during market turmoil—even in a rate-cut environment. Inflation expectations also strongly influence the gold market. While moderate inflation typically supports gold as a store of value, extreme inflation may shift investment patterns, potentially reducing demand if other assets offer higher returns. Changes in consumer demand, particularly from major gold-buying countries, can also impact prices. Additionally, seasonal trends, such as increased gold purchases during festivals or weddings in these countries, may contribute to price fluctuations. Finally, US President Joe Biden signed a budget bill that will fund the government until mid-March next year, preventing a year-end shutdown. This legislation, recently approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate, ensures government operations continue until the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, waiting for the final days of Santa Rally?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the demand zone will provide us with the conditions to buy it. The Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting, reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. However, FOMC members now forecast the 2025 interest rate to hover around 3.9%, higher than their September projection of 3.4%. Markets were largely surprised by the Fed’s hawkish stance, especially following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indirectly emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers are currently assessing the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. This shift has unsettled investors, dampening the optimistic market sentiment that typically precedes the Christmas holiday. Concerns are rising that if the Trump administration follows through on its campaign promises regarding taxes, tariffs, and immigration, the Fed may have to reverse its rate-cutting trajectory and adopt rate hikes instead. The outlook for 2025 has also seen adjustments. The Federal Reserve now expects only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts forecasted in September. This adjustment reflects the persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s target range. Following the Fed’s announcement, the S&P 500 experienced its steepest decline in 27 months, falling over 3.5%. The last time the U.S. stock index saw such a significant drop was in September 2022, during peak inflation and amid aggressive monetary tightening. Similarly, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.6%, marking its worst decline in five months. Morgan Stanley also revised its outlook for the Fed, predicting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated three cuts. On the economic front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled for release today, is likely to draw market attention. This index has risen steadily over the past two months, while one of its components—the sub-index measuring “job finding difficulty”—has declined during the same period. Given its strong correlation with the official unemployment rate, a further drop in December could signal job growth and a stronger dollar. On Tuesday, November data for durable goods orders and new home sales will be released. Durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% in October, are expected to decline by 0.4% month-over-month. However, investors often focus on the more specific “non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft),” which tends to exhibit less volatility and is a key input for GDP calculations. Overall, if market volatility persists during the holiday season, equities and bonds are likely to be impacted. The Fed’s hawkish tone is unfavorable for stocks, suggesting continued selling pressure as Treasury yields rise. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week. If demand falls short of expectations, bond yields could face additional upward pressure. Deutsche Bank, in a recent note, highlighted a significant shift in the Fed’s tone. Although the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, analysts noted a more hawkish stance than expected. One key indicator of this shift is the upward revision of the 2025 median inflation forecast to 2.5%, which Deutsche Bank described as “notable.” According to this report, the Fed does not anticipate inflation returning to its 2% target until 2027. Furthermore, the Fed’s updated forward guidance lacked any clear indications of future rate cuts. Jerome Powell described the December rate cut as a “difficult decision,” which faced opposition from Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed. Deutsche Bank analysts believe the Fed is unlikely to take any action during its January meeting, and the current pause could extend into a prolonged hold throughout 2025. Forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain above 4% next year, with no additional cuts anticipated.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
DXY "Dollar Index market" Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY "Dollar Index" market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a bull trade at any point, however I advise placing Multiple Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low & high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low level. Goal 🎯: 109.500 Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
TVC:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
2
XAUUSD 22/12/25XAUUSD Analysis Last week, we began with a bullish bias, but our outlook quickly shifted to bearish by Monday's close. This shift led to the significant downside movement observed during the latter half of the week, driven by fundamentals. We saw a substantial run targeting the lower levels, which brings us to today’s bias, which remains bearish. Currently, we are focused on the three liquidity lows as our primary targets. As always, we look to the highs within the range to provide optimal entries for these targets. At the moment, there is a high in the middle of the range, but we are prioritizing the higher, more favorable highs for potential short positions. If an entry aligns with our plan, this could lead to the final sell-off of the week before the New Year approaches. Trade safe and stick to your plan.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 22/12/24EUR/USD Update: Final Week of Trading Before the New Year As we head into the last week of trading before closing shop for the year, here’s a recap and outlook: Last week, we called a short after identifying our "money out" level. With a daily bearish bias and liquidity sitting above the highs, we outlined a clear sell scenario. The market delivered exactly as expected. Looking ahead to this week, our bias remains unchanged, and the principles stay the same. We are targeting deeper moves lower, focusing on the daily low at the base of the current range. Following the same approach, we anticipate the highs to be swept first, creating opportunities to enter and ride the price down to key lows. Currently, we have a potential high forming near the center of the range, but this is unconfirmed for now and remains a possibility. Keep an eye on all the marked highs—we’re waiting for a sweep of these levels, which could trigger the final market move of the year. If an entry presents itself, we’ll look to trade lower. Stay disciplined, trade your plan, and manage your risk.
by PipSurfingSociety
GOLD → Short to medium term perspectiveFX:XAUUSD after breaking through the support and updating the local minimum is returning to the area of 2620-2625, fueling the hopes of the bulls for possible growth. But, the medium-term picture for gold is not stable. Let's understand The strong dollar, which soared to local highs is a threat to gold going forward, as the Fed's hints of halting the rate cut course and adopting a hawkish stance on monetary policy has affected the market quite aggressively. There are 2 rate cuts pledged for 2025. Not to forget Trump's policies in general - the impact on rising inflation.... There are two interesting charts online that should not be overlooked: Statistics play an important role in shaping prices, but it is worthwhile to base this on actual fundamental and technical data. You should not use these statistical charts as primary data, but you can take them into account. We will analyze the dollar in terms of cycles and possible reversal in the second half of January and further as Trump acts.... As for gold, technically, in the short and medium term, I expect the decline to continue for the following reasons: - the bearish structure is confirmed - a localized retest of the zone of interest and imbalance is forming before a further fall. - The bearish trend has not broken within the framework of the December 10-13 movement. - price updates local lows We continue to follow the zones: 2631-2636 and 2650 Regards R. Linda!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
two buy positions on the DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)Here’s a structured plan for managing two buy positions on the DXY: --- 1. Entry Plan First Buy Position: Entry: 107.000 Likely Reason: Anticipation of strong support at this level, possibly near a significant technical or psychological level. Second Buy Position: Entry: 107.830 Likely Reason: Market reversal or breakout confirmation at this higher level. TVC:DXY 2. Risk Management Stop-Loss Levels: For the 107.000 position: Below 106.800 (to avoid a deeper pullback). For the 107.830 position: Below 107.500 (to account for short-term fluctuations). Position Sizing: Use smaller lot sizes for the second position if risk increases near resistance zones. --- 3. Take-Profit Strategy Conservative Targets: For both positions, a short-term take-profit can be set at 108.200, which may align with minor resistance. Aggressive Targets: Extend profit-taking to 108.500 or 109.000, depending on momentum and fundamental triggers. --- 4. Monitoring Key Levels Support Zones: Strong support at 107.000: Look for price consolidation here if it drops further. Resistance Zones: 108.000–108.200: Watch for profit-taking or reversal at these levels. 109.000: A more aggressive upside target.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY Will Grow! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 30m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 108.242. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 108.539 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
2
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.945. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 108.251 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
SPX 2025 Strategic Outlook 7150 points Wave Five Bull Market🔸Time to update the SPX outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in SPX going forward next few weeks correction / pullback. 🔸SPX price structure since 2023 is defined by a five wave impulse wave 3 completed already and currently we are in wave 4 pullback/correction until 5415 points. expecting wave four pullback to complete in January 2025. 🔸Wave 1 is 3600 to 4625, wave two 4625 to 4125, wave three 4125 to 6100,wave 4 pullback/correction now is 6100 to 5416, final bullish wave five is expected to start from 5415 to 7150 points (30% bull run). Wave 5 expected to start in January 2025 and complete sometime in Q4 2025. A/B/C 40% correction will follow as the market will enter extremely overbought zone. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: wait for the wave 4 correction to complete at/near 5415 points in January 2025 and then BUY/HOLD into wave 5 final target is 7150 points in Q4 2025. Obviously, this is a longer BUY/HOLD trade setup and patience is required with this trade. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
SP:SPXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
10