Market Moves as Expected—Caution for a Potential ReversalDXY Update : The movement remains in line with my expectations, with the ongoing correction being held by the Fibonacci cluster. At this stage, DXY still has the potential to strengthen, testing the 102.791–103.150 area to form wave iv of wave (v).
However, caution is advised for a potential reversal toward the 100.462–100.946.
DXY
DXY:Today's trading strategyTrump's announced comprehensive tariff plan has triggered global attention. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, on Thursday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally showed a significant downward trend. On that day, the price rose to a high of 103.931 at most, dropped to a low of 101.232, and closed at 101.937.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index price on Thursday, after the opening in the morning, the price continued to decline in the short term. Subsequently, the price remained weak all the way with almost no rebound. It underwent short-term oscillatory consolidation and finally closed with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. For now, pay attention to the resistance in the 102.80 area and the level of 102.40, and keep a continuous watch for further bearish pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@102.50-102.60
TP:101.50-101.30
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Long-Awaited Recover
It looks like Dollar Index is going to pullback
after a test of a significant support cluster on a daily.
A strong bullish imbalance candle that was formed on an hourly
time frame shows a strong buying interest from that zone.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 102.35
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Dollar Index at Risk: Key Support Holds the Fate of the TrendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, confirming a bearish reversal after a successful retest of the neckline. The price is currently near a key support area, and if it fails to hold, a drop toward the lower strong support zone is likely.
Additionally, RSI is showing bearish divergence and is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening momentum.
DYOR, NFA
+340 pips Best Level to SHORT USDCHF Swing Trade 🔸Hello traders, let's review the D1 chart for USDCHF today. Price action
contained within a well-defined range since September 2024.
🔸Premium prices at 9100/9185, below at 0225/0190. range highs 9050
and range lows set at 8540. trading mid range right now.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCHF traders: break below 8740 exposes
further downside, expecting dump. short sell break below 8740 SL 60
TP1+120 pips TP2+240 pips final exit +340 pips. swing trade setup,
might require more time to hit targets. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GOLD - 1H UPDATE
Gold dropped nicely today, in a strong impulsive move which normally indicates a reversal. We also saw price touch $3,057, but we did say price also needs to close below that level which it never done. There's 2 possible plays on its next move;
1. Price just carries on dropping lower in the next week as expected.
2. Gold starts to consolidate, creating a 'redistribution schematic' for a bigger sell off. But this could also mean Gold creating 1 more new ATH.
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (02.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3077
2nd Support – 3048
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DXY Chart SummaryEh bro, this chart showing two roads for Dollar Index lah.
If price can break above that 100 level ah, then maybe will fly up to 92-94 area (last resistance zone).
But if kena reject at 100, then jialat, price can drop back down to 110 area again.
So now hor, this green box is the decision point — break or reject.
Wait for clear move first, don’t simply jump in."
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BUY GBPUSDLadies and Gents, in todays session we are monitoring GBPUSD for potential upwards move. BULLS INCOMING. Our target is 1.2923 and stops are below 1.2852 and targets above 1.31207. This set up is on higher time frame meaning it might take few days to play out make sure to look for confluence on lower time frames and use proper risk management.
DXY:Expect an uptrend based on the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally fluctuated in a range. The price reached a daily high of 104.345, a low of 103.99, and closed at 104.19.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index on Tuesday, after the morning opening, the price initially fell under short-term pressure. Subsequently, it halted its decline and resumed its upward movement above the daily support level, but the overall range was limited. The price rose in a volatile manner, and finally closed with a bullish doji.
From a weekly perspective, continue to focus on the 106.60 level, which is a key level for the medium-term trend. Below this level, the medium-term trend is bearish, and the price increase is temporarily regarded as a correction within the medium-term decline.
Meanwhile, from a daily perspective, temporarily pay attention to the 103.90 level, which is crucial for the wave trend. Above this level, adopt a bullish stance for the wave trend. Also, on the four-hour chart, temporarily focus on the support at the 104.10 area. Therefore, before the price breaks below the low of Monday, bet on an upward movement based on the daily support. Only after a downward break will the trend turn bearish.
Currently, there is a lot of news, so everyone must be cautious of market risks.
Trading Strategy:
buy@103.90-104
TP:104.50-104.80
Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
Tariff Tensions, Dollar Dips & Gold’s Record Rally!"As of April 2, 2025, the financial markets have been significantly influenced by recent economic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), gold (XAU/USD), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
1. Key Economic Data Reports and Their Impact:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY has experienced fluctuations due to recent economic indicators and policy announcements. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported softer figures, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity. These reports have contributed to a marginal decline in the DXY, which decreased by 0.02% to 104.2418 on April 2 .Financial TimesTrading Economics
Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices have surged to record highs, nearing $3,150 per ounce. This increase is largely driven by investor concerns over potential economic slowdowns and uncertainties surrounding impending tariff announcements by President Trump . The anticipation of these tariffs has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, bolstering demand for gold.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, trading above $84,000 with a nearly 2% gain in the past 24 hours . This rebound follows weeks of price weakness and is occurring amid the backdrop of upcoming tariff announcements, which have introduced volatility into the cryptocurrency markets.
2. Implications of the Data Reports:
Labor Market and Manufacturing Data: The softer JOLTS figures and the ISM manufacturing slowdown suggest a potential deceleration in economic growth. These indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and, consequently, the strength of the U.S. dollar.The Guardian+3EWF Pro+3KuCoin+3
Tariff Announcements: The anticipation of new tariffs has heightened market uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as they could have significant implications for international trade relations and economic stability. Such uncertainties often lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and can introduce volatility into both traditional and digital asset markets.
3. Major Contributors to Recent Market Movements:
Tariff Uncertainty: President Trump's impending announcement of new tariffs has been a primary driver of recent market volatility. The potential for widespread tariffs has led to concerns about a global economic slowdown, prompting shifts in investor sentiment .
Investor Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has led investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as safe havens, such as gold. This shift has contributed to the significant rise in gold prices.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: While Bitcoin has faced headwinds from global trade tensions, it has also shown resilience. Analysts suggest that traders may be overstating the impact of the U.S.-led tariff war on Bitcoin's price, indicating that other factors, such as market sentiment and technological developments, also play crucial roles .
In summary, the recent economic data releases and the anticipation of new tariffs have collectively influenced the DXY, gold, and Bitcoin markets. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they have the potential to significantly impact market dynamics in the near term.
+400 pips EURUSD swing trade setup V-shape recovery BUY LOW🏆 EURUSD Market Update
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Short-term: BEARS 0680
🔸Mid-term: BULLS 1180
🔸Status: pullback in progress
🔸0660/0680 normal pullback
🔸BULLS still maintain control
🔸Price Target Bears: 0660/0680
🔸Price Target BULLS: 1160/1180
📊 Forex Market Highlights – April 2nd, 2025
🚨 Traders await Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff
reveal at 20:00 GMT – markets holding breath
as global trade tensions escalate.
💷 GBP/USD Sluggish Above 1.2900
📉 Cable struggles to gain upside as USD
safe-haven demand kicks in pre-announcement.
🇪🇺 EUR/USD Pressured Below 1.0800
🔽 Euro weakens amid risk aversion and strong
dollar flows — key support at 1.0760 in focus.
🥇 Gold Shines Bright
🚀 Hits ATH above $3,100 amid rising risk-off
mood & global uncertainty. Safe haven demand surging.
🔔 Stay sharp — volatility ahead.
EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (02.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0736
2nd Support – 1.0707
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