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DXY Will Go Up! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 100.036. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 100.899 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup📊 DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup from FVG & Trendline Confluence Price tapped into a well-defined Fair Value Gap (FVG UP) aligning with bullish trendline support. I'm anticipating a small retracement toward the 99.88–99.81 area before continuation upward. 📍 Entry Zone: 99.88 – 99.81 (FVG + Trendline) 🛑 Stop Loss: 99.71 🎯 Target (TP): 100.32 📐 RR: Approx. 1:3 Confluences: Bullish market structure FVG filled & respected Ascending trendline support Liquidity taken below previous lows 🔔 Watching for bullish reaction after the minor pullback for confirmation.
TVC:DXYLong
by KechFx
The Bitcoin Illusion: Why $300K or $1M Is a Pipe DreamBitcoin enthusiasts love throwing around wild price predictions—$300K, $1M, even $5M per BTC—as if these numbers are inevitable. But let’s break down the math and expose the delusion behind these claims: Bitcoin at $300K or $1M? Let’s Do the Math - $300,000 is a number pulled out of thin air by Michael Saylor and Robert Kiyosaki, either deliberately misleading or financially illiterate. They fail to grasp that this would require a market cap of $6 trillion. - $1 million, as Cathy Wood foolishly claims, would require Bitcoin’s market cap to exceed $20 trillion—more than the entire GDP of the United States. - The idea that Bitcoin will magically absorb trillions in global wealth is pure delusion. Now, let’s put this into perspective: - Bitcoin reaching $100K was relatively easy because it required a market cap of just $2 trillion—a fraction of global liquidity. - But pushing Bitcoin to $300K or beyond requires trillions more, which is mathematically impossible without a massive influx of new capital—capital that simply does not exist. Your $100K to $1M Fantasy—Let’s Run the Numbers - Some Bitcoin holders believe their sub-$100K investment will make them multimillionaires. That's a lie and delusional: - If you bought 100k worth of Bitcoin at 83K per BTC, it would need to hit $830K per coin for you to even reach $1M. - That’s not financial genius—it’s blind faith in an impossible scenario. You’re Living in "The Matrix" of Crypto Lies - You’re not stacking wealth—you’re stacking HOPIUM. State Adoption Won’t Skyrocket the Price - Even if six U.S. states were considering Bitcoin treasuries, those purchases would be OTC (over-the-counter)—meaning they wouldn’t significantly impact market price. - Governments negotiate deals strategically; they don’t flood markets like retail investors hoping for price surges. The End of Bitcoin’s Accumulation Phase Bitcoin’s early adopters—the billionaires who pumped it up—have already made their money. The accumulation phase is over. - To push Bitcoin higher, these whales would need to inject substantial amounts of new capital—but they are overleveraged and drowning in debt. - Borrowed money must be repaid, and we're already past Bitcoin’s peak mainstream adoption which means there are no new waves of buyers to sustain the illusion. - Bitcoin is now entering a distribution phase, where early holders cash out, leaving retail investors holding the bag. The Rise of ETFs and Real Investments The world is moving on. Investors are waking up to the fact that: - ETFs offer real projects with actual purpose, unlike Bitcoin. - ETFs pay dividends, generate revenue, and contribute to real economic growth. - Newer crypto projects—like Stamps, art collections, gaming tokens, and smart contracts—are gaining traction and pulling capital away from Bitcoin. Bitcoiners will get left behind, holding worthless, declining bags of old-school crypto, while the future thrives in better technologies. The Harsh Reality: Bitcoin’s Future Is Bleeding Out Bitcoin isn’t the future—it’s a fading illusion. - The crypto cartel thrives on believers, feeding them fantasy while they cash out. - The idea that Bitcoin will replace fiat, become the global payment rail, and make every holder rich is a marketing illusion designed to keep people holding bags. - The longer people ignore reality, the harder the crash will be for them. Many think they’re ahead of the curve, but they’re just loyal believers in an unsustainable illusion. When this unravels, it won’t be Bitcoin’s future collapsing—it will be theirs.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by CassianDrake
1
XAUUSD BuyHello traders! There’s an ideal buying opportunity on XAUUSD right now. I’ve activated a Buy position to take advantage of this setup. The TP target is **3262.58** and the SL level is **3242.65**. Make sure to adjust your lot size and risk according to your trading plan, and enter the trade with discipline. 🔔 I post detailed trade ideas and daily market analysis like this every day on my TradingView profile. 👉 Follow me to get notified and read the full breakdowns.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nurlan_PT
De-Dollarization Debunked: Why BRICS Can’t Dethrone the USD!The Dollar’s Throne—Shaky or Rock-Solid? Picture this: a gang of economic rebels—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and their new BRICS+ pals—plotting to topple King Dollar from its global throne. The headlines scream “De-Dollarization!” as if the U.S. dollar is about to be dethroned by a shiny new BRICS currency, backed by gold, blockchain, or sheer ambition. Sounds like a blockbuster, right? Except, here’s the twist: the dollar’s throne isn’t just solid—it’s practically welded to the global economy. So, why does the BRICS crew think they can pull off this heist? And why are they doomed to trip over their own ambitions? Buckle up for a 5,000-word joyride through the wild world of global finance, where the dollar reigns supreme, BRICS dreams big, and the numbers tell a story funnier than a sitcom. Act 1: The Dollar’s Superpower—Why It’s Still King Let’s start with a jaw-dropping stat: the U.S. dollar accounts for 88% of international transactions through the SWIFT system and 59% of global central bank reserves as of 2024. That’s not just dominance; it’s the financial equivalent of the dollar flexing its biceps while other currencies watch from the sidelines. The euro? A distant second at 20% of reserves. China’s yuan? A measly 2.3%. The dollar’s grip is so tight, it’s practically giving the global economy a bear hug. Why does the dollar rule? It’s not just because Uncle Sam prints greenbacks like they’re going out of style (though the U.S. debt is a whopping $34 trillion in 2025). The dollar’s superpower lies in trust, liquidity, and infrastructure. The U.S. has deep, liquid financial markets, a stable (ish) legal system, and no capital controls—things no BRICS nation can match. Want to trade oil? Dollars. Settle a cross-border deal? Dollars. Hide your cash from your dictator boss? You guessed it—dollars. The greenback is the world’s financial comfort food, and everyone’s got a craving. But here’s where it gets juicy: BRICS thinks they can crash this party. At the 2024 Kazan Summit, Russia’s Vladimir Putin called the dollar a “weapon,” while China’s Xi Jinping pushed for a BRICS “Unit” currency. Sounds spicy, but let’s unpack why this plan is less Ocean’s Eleven and more Three Stooges. Act 2: BRICS’ Big Dream—And Bigger Problems The BRICS Fantasy: A Currency to Rule Them All BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus newbies like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) wants to ditch the dollar for a new currency or a basket of their own—maybe even a gold-backed “Unit.” The pitch? Reduce reliance on the dollar, dodge U.S. sanctions, and flex their collective muscle (they represent 28% of global GDP and 44% of crude oil production). In 2023, one-fifth of oil trades sidestepped the dollar, a shift driven by Russia and China settling in rubles and yuan. That’s a bold move, right? Except, here’s the punchline: creating a BRICS currency is like herding cats while riding a unicycle and juggling flaming torches. Let’s break down why their dream is a logistical nightmare. Problem #1: No Trust, No Party BRICS nations don’t exactly exchange friendship bracelets. India and China? They’ve got border disputes so tense, their soldiers once threw rocks at each other. Russia and China might cozy up to dodge sanctions, but Brazil and India aren’t thrilled about Beijing calling the shots. A common currency needs trust—think the eurozone, where Germany and France (mostly) play nice. BRICS? It’s more like a reality show where everyone’s secretly voting each other off the island. X posts sum it up: “BRICS replacing the dollar? Mutual distrust and weak legal systems will kill any shared currency initiative.” Without trust, no one’s pooling their reserves or agreeing on who controls the money printer. Problem #2: The Yuan’s Not Ready for Prime Time China’s yuan is the closest BRICS has to a dollar rival, but it’s got stage fright. Only 7% of foreign exchange trading involves the yuan, and China’s capital controls keep it on a tight leash. Want to invest your yuan globally? Good luck—Beijing’s not keen on letting cash flow freely. Morgan Stanley’s strategists put it bluntly: “China would need to relax control of its currency and open the capital account. That’s not happening soon.” Plus, China’s economy isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. Consumer demand is sagging, and the property crisis is dragging on like a bad soap opera. The yuan’s share in global payments via SWIFT is up to 6.4% in 2024, but that’s still pocket change compared to the dollar’s dominance. Problem #3: Oil’s Not Enough BRICS+ produces 44% of global crude oil, so why not price it in their currencies? Saudi Arabia’s riyal is pegged to the dollar, and even their flirtation with yuan-based oil deals hasn’t gone far. Why? Oil is only 15% of global trade, and the dollar’s used for everything else—tech, cars, coffee, you name it. Even if BRICS prices oil in rubles or rupees, the rest of the world’s still paying for iPhones in dollars. And here’s a kicker: at the 2024 BRICS Summit, Russia advised attendees to bring dollars and euros because local banks preferred them over rubles. Talk about an own goal Act 3: The Dollar’s Kryptonite—Does It Exist? Let’s play devil’s advocate. Could BRICS pull off a miracle? They’ve got some tricks up their sleeves: blockchain-based payment systems like BRICS Bridge, gold-backed reserves (BRICS+ holds 42% of global FX reserves), and a push for local currency trade. Russia and China already settle 95% of their trade in rubles and yuan. That’s not nothing. But here’s the reality check: these moves are like bringing a water gun to a tank fight. The dollar’s dominance isn’t just about transactions; it’s about network effects. The greenback’s infrastructure—SWIFT, Wall Street, Treasury bonds—is a fortress. BRICS’ alternative, like the mBridge CBDC platform, is promising but embryonic. It connects China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, but it’s nowhere near replacing SWIFT’s global reach. And gold? BRICS loves it—gold’s 10% of their reserves, half the global average—but it’s not a currency. You can’t pay for Netflix with gold bars, and central banks aren’t keen on lugging bullion around. The Atlantic Council’s 2024 “Dollar Dominance Monitor” says it best: “The dollar’s role as the primary global reserve currency is secure in the near and medium term.” Act 4: Trump’s Tariffs and the De-Dollarization Drama Enter Donald Trump, stage right, with a megaphone and a tariff hammer. In 2025, he’s threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they push de-dollarization. “Any BRICS state that mentions the destruction of the dollar will lose access to America’s markets,” he thundered. Sounds like a plan to keep the dollar king, right? Wrong. Here’s the irony: Trump’s aggressive tactics might accelerate de-dollarization. Sanctions and tariffs make BRICS nations double down on alternatives. China’s been diversifying reserves and pushing yuan trade for years, partly because of U.S. pressure. As one analyst put it, “Trump’s threats are a rallying cry for BRICS to act.” But don’t hold your breath. Tariffs hurt BRICS economies (China’s exports to the U.S. are 15% of its total), but they don’t solve BRICS’ internal chaos. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said it plainly: “India has never been for de-dollarization.” Brazil’s also lukewarm, fearing a China-dominated BRICS. Without unity, their currency dreams are just hot air. Act 5: The Numbers Don’t Lie—Dollar’s Here to Stay Let’s crunch some numbers to seal the deal: SWIFT Transactions: Dollar: 88%. Euro: 20%. Yuan: 7%. Global Reserves: Dollar: 59%. Euro: 20%. Yuan: 2.3%. Oil Trade: 80% in dollars in 2023, down from 100%. Global Trade: 50% dollar-denominated. BRICS GDP: $28.5 trillion (28% of global). U.S.: $25.5 trillion (24%). The dollar’s share is slipping—reserves dropped from 72% post-WWII to 59%—but it’s still laps ahead. BRICS’ push for local currencies is gaining traction (Russia-China trade is 80% non-dollar), but scaling that globally is a pipe dream. The euro flopped as a dollar rival; the yuan’s too controlled; and a BRICS “Unit”? It’s a concept, not a currency. Act 6: Thought-Provoking Twist—What If BRICS Succeeds? Let’s indulge in a wild “what if.” Imagine BRICS pulls it off: a gold-backed Unit currency, blockchain payments, and oil priced in yuan. The dollar crashes, inflation spikes, and Americans pay $10 for a coffee. Scary, right? Former White House economist Joe Sullivan warned BRICS could swing an “economic wrecking ball” at the dollar. But here’s the catch: a BRICS win hurts BRICS too. Their economies rely on dollar-based trade—China holds $3 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds. A dollar collapse tanks their assets. Plus, who trusts a BRICS currency when China’s calling the shots? As Ray Dalio noted, de-dollarization is “financial risk management,” not a revolution. BRICS wants options, not chaos. Act 7: The Funny Finale—BRICS’ Comedy of Errors Picture BRICS at a poker table, bluffing with a bad hand. Russia’s got rubles nobody wants. China’s yuan is chained to Beijing’s whims. India’s like, “I’m just here for the snacks.” Brazil’s dreaming of free trade, and South Africa’s wondering why they RSVP’d. Meanwhile, the dollar’s dealing cards, smirking, “You sure you wanna bet against me?” The de-dollarization saga is a comedy of errors—big talk, small results. BRICS’ heart is in it, but their heads are in the clouds. The dollar’s not perfect (hello, $34 trillion debt), but it’s the only game in town. As Morgan Stanley’s James Lord said, “When global markets fall, you want dollars.” Epilogue: Keep Your Eyes on the Dollar So, what’s the takeaway? De-dollarization is a catchy buzzword, but BRICS can’t dethrone the dollar anytime soon. The greenback’s too entrenched, BRICS too divided, and the world too hooked on dollar-based trade. Will BRICS chip away at the edges? Sure—expect more yuan trades and blockchain experiments. But a dollar-free world? That’s science fiction, not finance. For traders, here’s a tip: watch DXY’s inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakout above 100 could signal another dollar rally. For everyone else, laugh at the BRICS hype, stash some dollars under your mattress, and enjoy the show. The dollar’s throne isn’t going anywhere—yet.
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
EUR/USD - Channel Breakout (02.05.2025) FX:EURUSD The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.1387 2nd Resistance – 1.1430 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. TVC:DXY Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
41
Bitcoin (BITX) getting ready for a parabolic move? Here is a chart of probably my favorite swing trade for the year. I am keeping it simple with this chart though. I am a firm believer in simple when it comes to trading. I think the previous descension and breakout is playing out very similarly to the current one. Both had a double top rejecting from their respective trendlines following the initial breaks of structure. BITX is currently making its second tap of the the trendline. If it plays out like the previous structure did that would suggest w could see one more low in store. I don't believe this to be the case but if it is this run could be postponed until the end summer/beginning of fall. I think it is more important to point out the relative strength in Bitcoin as of late, the weakness in the US dollar, as well as global liquidity having broke out months ago. I think the most likely scenario is a pullback from this point which will be followed by a higher low printing. I will say I also expect this pullback to be steeper than the one from the previous descension. Bitcoin and Indices are a lot more overextended than they were last time around and the structure in indices is a lot weaker than before. All this being said I am expecting a breakout to occur over the next several weeks just based off probabilities. It all depends on if BTC and indices and hold their respective demand/support levels. Bitcoin needs to hold 85k in order for a summer breakout to occur. For the S&P equivalent level this could be somewhere around 5200-5300. If these assets are not able to hold these levels my confidence will shift pretty dramatically. I would still expect a major rally to take place around the Q4 timeframe but I would be expecting a lot less upside. Price would likely have to chop around for a while before deciding if it wants to continue to the upside. I am basing this off market structure/Dow theory. It is important to take all possibilities into account and ultimately let the charts do the talking.
CBOE:BITXLong
by ChazzyFreshh
4
DXY (Dollar index) Shorts from 1hr supply zone My general outlook on the DXY this week leans bearish, as I expect price to continue trending lower. I’ve identified a nearby 1H supply zone, where we could see price react and begin pushing lower. There is also a larger supply zone further above, but it’s currently out of reach unless price pulls back significantly. Looking back, the 2-day demand zone I marked over a week ago has played out well, with a strong bullish reaction from that level — price is still rising from that zone. During this move, a new 11H demand zone has formed, which also led to a change of character to the upside. If price revisits that zone, we may see another bullish continuation from there. Key Points: Overall bearish trend expected to continue in the short term. 1H supply zone nearby is a potential trigger point for a sell-off. 2D demand zone previously marked is still holding and influencing price. 11H demand zone has caused a bullish shift and could provide another long opportunity if price returns. P.S. This is my general DXY outlook for the week. I don’t trade the dollar directly, but I use it as a key confluence when analysing and executing trades across other major pairs.
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar: Recovering from The Bearish HugsIn previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key factors that have driven the U.S. outperformance over the past decade. The U.S. market dominance is largely due to the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. Underperforming Internationally Markets outside the U.S. have faced challenges such as multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and the decline of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also heavily dependent on the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three main themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the dominant global reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend involves a shift away from the centrality of the US dollar in global economic transactions and towards alternative currencies, assets or financial systems. Reasons for De-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses the dollar's dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of emerging economic powers: Emerging economies such as China and groups such as the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to US influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine have increased efforts by countries such as Russia to withdraw dollars from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the US dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce reliance on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization is challenging the entrenched role of the dollar, but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multi-polar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments in the US. Technical Test The main technical chart is presented in a weekly perspective, reflecting the performance of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD over the long term. With the positive dynamics of the relative strength indicator RSI(14) continuing, a breakout of flat resistance near the level of 0.72 is noted, with the prospect of a possible price increase to 0.80, parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to historical maximums, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
1
Dollar Outlook Ahead of Jobs ReportThe dollar index is attempting a comeback, but the 100.20–100.50 zone has so far formed a strong resistance. Today’s jobs report will be key for determining the short-term direction. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 138k. This could be the last relatively strong report before the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the labor market. Leading indicators already show significant pressure on trade and transportation employment, though the full impact is likely to emerge in future reports. Still, we may see early signs of softness today. As the economy comes out of winter, there could be some temporary strength in weather-sensitive sectors. Overall, I expect a slight beat in today’s nonfarm payrolls data. If unemployment also holds at 4.2%, the dollar could respond positively. Positive reaction to the payrolls data usually do not pass around 1% gains. An interesting detail: TVC:DXY has risen after each of the last eight jobs reports, regardless of whether the data was strong or weak. That trend might end today, though, as the dollar is no longer in an established uptrend. If the 100.20–100.50 resistance zone breaks, the dollar could climb toward 101.50 in the coming days. However, the broader outlook remains negative. Please check our longer-term analysis here:
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
XAU/USD (Gold) H1 Breakout (29.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 3158 2nd Support – 3025 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
30
BTCUSDT forming a Bullish Flag patternBitcoin (BTCUSDT) is currently forming a classic bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, often regarded as a strong continuation setup in technical analysis. The breakout from the prior descending wedge has already provided strong bullish momentum, and now BTC is consolidating just below key resistance, signaling the next possible leg upward. With volume steadily increasing during this consolidation phase, this flag pattern holds significant potential for a breakout rally. The price structure reflects healthy accumulation, where smart money seems to be stepping in before the anticipated surge. The flagpole leading up to the pattern shows strong bullish dominance, and the sideways flag structure suggests that Bitcoin is merely taking a breather before pushing higher. A confirmed breakout from the flag could target an upside of 20% to 30%+, aligning with the projected price move shown on the chart. Fundamentally, Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream traction, and the broader crypto sentiment is turning positive again. The volume patterns and technical indicators reinforce the bullish outlook. Investors are showing renewed interest, especially as BTC holds above key psychological and structural levels, which adds confidence to the continuation narrative. This setup is ideal for breakout traders and investors looking to capitalize on short to mid-term gains. If the bullish flag plays out as expected, BTC could make another significant move toward its all-time high zone. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
Dollar Doomsayers Are Dead Wrong: Why USD Will Crush It in 2025.Road To a Million fam! It’s your boy, back from the wilderness after a hiatus that felt longer than a bear market in a crypto crash. I’m pumped to be here, ready to drop some truth bombs, dissect the markets, and—most importantly—help us all make some serious bank. Buckle up, because there’s a ton to unpack, and we’re diving headfirst into the biggest elephant in the room: the U.S. dollar (USD). Spoiler alert: it’s not dead, it’s not even close to dead, and anyone saying otherwise is probably shorting it while crying into their latte. Let’s get into it! The Dollar Drama: What’s the Deal? If you’ve been anywhere near a financial newsfeed in 2025, you’ve heard the doomsday choir singing, “The dollar is done! Kaput! Finito!” The Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8% this year, and the Twitter (sorry, X) finance bros are out here proclaiming the end of the greenback’s reign as the world’s reserve currency. They’re screaming about de-dollarization, BRICS taking over, and gold mooning like it’s 1971. Meanwhile, I’m over here sipping my coffee, looking at the charts, and laughing. Why? Because the dollar’s obituary is the most exaggerated piece of fan fiction since Twilight. Let’s cut through the noise and get to the meat. The USD has taken a beating, sure, but an 8% drop in a year doesn’t mean it’s packing its bags and moving to the Bahamas. The dollar is still the king of global trade, the backbone of international commerce, and the currency you need if you’re, say, India buying oil from Saudi Arabia. No one’s trading rupees for barrels, folks. They’re selling rupees, buying dollars, and getting that black gold. That’s the reality, and it’s not changing anytime soon. So, why the panic? Why is everyone acting like the dollar’s about to be replaced by Dogecoin or a shiny new BRICS coin? Let’s break it down, roast the naysayers, and then talk about how we’re gonna make money off this drama. Because, let’s be real, that’s why you’re here. Why the Dollar’s Down (But Not Out) First, let’s address why the DXY is down 8% in 2025. The Dollar Index, for those new to the game, measures the USD against a basket of major currencies—56% euros, plus some GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, and a sprinkle of others. It’s like a currency Thunderdome: one dollar enters, a bunch of others try to take it down. When the DXY drops, it means the USD is weakening relative to these currencies. But why? Interest Rate Shenanigans: Central banks are the puppet masters of forex markets, and their interest rate moves are like plot twists in a soap opera. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25–4.5% on December 18, 2024, signaling a slightly dovish stance. Meanwhile, the Eurozone slashed its rate to 2.25% on April 17, 2025. That’s a 2% differential in favor of the U.S., which is huge in forex land. But the market’s been spooked by the Fed’s cut, thinking it’s the start of a softening cycle, while other central banks (like the ECB) are also cutting, creating a weird global rate limbo. Inflation Tug-of-War: Inflation in the U.S. is at 2.4%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.2%. That means U.S. investors are getting a real return of about 2% (4.25% interest minus 2.4% inflation), while Eurozone investors are basically breaking even (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation). Money flows where it’s treated best, and right now, the U.S. is the VIP lounge. But short-term traders are freaking out over inflation fears and potential rate cuts, which has pressured the USD. Trump’s Tariff Tantrums: Oh, Donald. The man’s back in the White House, tweeting (X-ing?) up a storm about “Making America Great Again” with tariffs left, right, and center. His trade war threats—10–20% tariffs on imports, 60% on Chinese goods—have markets jittery. A stronger dollar could make U.S. exports pricier, so some traders are betting on a weaker USD to balance things out. Spoiler: I think they’re wrong, and I’ll explain why later. De-Dollarization Hype: The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and friends) has been pushing for a non-USD trade system, with talks of a new currency or gold-backed system. This has fueled the “dollar is doomed” narrative. But let’s be real: a BRICS coin? Good luck getting China and India to agree on anything, let alone a unified currency. And gold? It’s ripping higher (more on that later), but it’s not replacing the USD for global trade anytime soon. So, yeah, the dollar’s been punched in the face a few times this year. But it’s like Rocky Balboa—it’s taken worse beatings and still comes out swinging. The question is: Is this the end of the dollar’s dominance, or is it just warming up for a comeback? Let’s look at the big picture. The Dollar Ain’t Going Anywhere (Here’s Why) Listen up, because this is where I get on my soapbox and preach. The dollar is not dead. It’s not even on life support. If anything, it’s doing push-ups in the gym, getting ready to flex on the haters. Here’s why I’m so bullish on the USD, and why you should be too. 1. The Reserve Currency Superpower The USD is the world’s reserve currency, and that’s not just a fancy title—it’s a superpower. Over 88% of global transactions (SWIFT data, 2024) are settled in USD. When Russia wants to sell gas to China, they often price it in dollars. When Brazil buys soybeans from Argentina, guess what? Dollars. Even countries with beef against the U.S. (looking at you, Iran) hold USD reserves because it’s the only currency universally accepted for trade. Why does this matter? Because every country needs USD to play in the global sandbox. India’s not paying Canada for oil in rupees. They’re converting to USD or dipping into their dollar reserves. This creates constant demand for the greenback, and that demand isn’t vanishing overnight. Could it fade in a decade? Maybe. But in 2025? No chance. And let’s talk alternatives. Bitcoin? Ha! It’s a speculative asset, not a stable currency for trade. Gold? It’s mooning (up 25% in 2025, per Bloomberg), but you’re not paying for a tanker of crude with gold bars. A BRICS currency? Good luck getting 10+ countries with conflicting agendas to agree on a logo, let alone a monetary policy. The USD’s reserve status is a fortress, and it’s not crumbling anytime soon. 2. Interest Rate Domination Let’s talk money—specifically, where it flows. The U.S. has a Fed funds rate of 4.25–4.5%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.25%. That’s a 2% gap, which is like the Grand Canyon in forex terms. If you’re an investor, where are you parking your cash? In the U.S., where you’re earning a 2% real return (4.25% minus 2.4% inflation), or in the Eurozone, where you’re getting a big fat zero (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation)? This is why the Eurozone’s in trouble. The ECB’s stuck in a trap—low rates to prop up struggling economies like Spain and Italy, but that makes the euro less attractive. Meanwhile, the U.S. is the cool kid at the party, attracting capital like moths to a flame. And don’t forget: the Eurozone’s a mess of 20 countries with one monetary policy but wildly different fiscal policies. Spain’s productivity isn’t Germany’s, no matter what the ECB pretends. The euro’s gonna weaken against the USD, mark my words. 3. Trump’s Dollar Rocket Fuel Love him or hate him, Trump’s policies are about to light a fire under the USD. His “America First” agenda includes bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., which means building factories from scratch. Those factories need raw materials—steel, copper, you name it. And guess what currency they’ll use to buy that stuff? Ding, ding, ding—USD! Plus, Trump’s tariffs (10–20% on imports, 60% on China, per Reuters) will reduce U.S. imports, meaning fewer dollars flowing out of the country. But foreign countries still need USD to repay their dollar-denominated debts (global USD debt is $13 trillion, per the BIS). Less USD supply, same demand? That’s a recipe for a stronger dollar. Trump’s shaking markets like a toddler with a snow globe, but in this case, it’s bullish for the USD. 4. Contrarian Goldmine Here’s a little trading wisdom: when everyone’s screaming the same thing, they’re usually wrong. Right now, 99% of the finance world (or at least the loud ones on X) is saying the dollar’s toast. That kind of extreme sentiment is a red flag. Markets love to screw over the crowd, and when everyone’s shorting the USD, it means the bottom is either in or damn close. I’m calling it: the DXY’s either bottomed already or will soon, probably around 97. When sentiment’s this bearish, it’s like the market’s handing you a gift-wrapped opportunity. And I’m not about to let it pass. The Charts Don’t Lie: DXY Technical Breakdown Alright, enough macro talk—let’s get to the fun stuff: charts. I’ve been staring at these squiggly lines for 20+ years, and they’re telling me the USD’s about to go on a tear. Let’s break it down, from the big picture to the nitty-gritty. Long-Term View: The 20-Year Monthly Chart Zoom out, fam. When in doubt, zoom out. I’m looking at the DXY on a monthly chart, going back to 2005. Each candle is one month, and the trend is crystal clear: up. The DXY’s been cruising in an ascending channel for two decades, like a train chugging along at 200 miles an hour. Sure, it’s hit some bumps—2008, 2011, 2020—but the direction’s undeniable. Right now, the DXY’s sitting around 100, down from its 2024 highs. But it’s still within that bullish channel. I’m drawing trendlines here: a lower trendline connecting the lows (around 97–98) and an upper trendline around 120–125. The price is hugging the lower end, which screams “buying opportunity” to me. My big-picture call? The DXY’s heading to 115–117 by late 2026 or early 2027, maybe even sooner (Jan 2026, anyone?). Why? Because a 20-year trend doesn’t reverse overnight. The dollar’s not dying—it’s just taking a breather before the next leg up. If you disagree, hit the comments. Let’s duke it out. Short-Term View: The 4-Hour Chart Now, let’s zoom in to the 4-hour chart for the past couple of months. The short-term trend’s been down, no question—DXY’s been sliding like a kid on a waterslide. But here’s where it gets juicy: I’m seeing a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. For the newbies, that’s a bullish reversal pattern, and it’s already played out like a charm. Pattern Breakdown: The left shoulder formed in early April, the head hit a low around April 10, and the right shoulder wrapped up by April 21. The neckline (resistance) was around 99.8–100, and guess what? The DXY broke it like a champ. Trendline Break: On top of that, the DXY smashed through a short-term downtrend line, confirming the bullish vibes. RSI Divergence: Check the Relative Strength Index (RSI). From April 10 to April 21, the price made lower lows, but the RSI was making higher lows. That’s a classic bullish divergence, screaming, “The momentum’s shifting!” We jumped in when the trendline broke, and boom—profits are rolling in. Price Targets and Trading Plan Here’s the game plan, fam. The DXY’s already broken the neckline, so we’re in. Now, we’re watching these levels: Immediate Target: 100.28 The DXY needs to close above 100.28 by the weekend (May 2–3, 2025). If it does, it’s go time. I’m telling you, go all in (responsibly, of course). This level’s key because it’s a minor resistance from prior price action. A close above it confirms the breakout. Next Target: 103–103.5 This is the big one. The 103 zone is a major inflection point—tons of price action and clutter from earlier this year. If the DXY breaks 100.28, it’s got a clear path to 103. Expect some resistance around 100.27 (a support-turned-resistance level), but once it clears that, it’s smooth sailing to 103. Probability: I’m giving this an 80% chance of heading higher, 20% chance of a pullback. Those are odds I’ll take any day. Long-Term Goal: If the DXY follows its 20-year channel, we’re looking at 115–117 by 2026–2027. That’s not a pipe dream—that’s history repeating itself. Trading Tip: We’re already positioned from the trendline break. If 100.28 breaks, scale up. If it pulls back to 97 (the lower trendline), that’s a dream buy zone. But don’t get caught in the daily noise—Trump’s tweets, CPI reports, whatever. Focus on the big picture. Gold, Tariffs, and Trump: The Side Characters I know you’re itching to talk gold, tariffs, and Trump’s wild ride. I’m saving the deep dive for another post (stay tuned!), but here’s the quick and dirty. Gold: Gold’s up 25% in 2025 (Bloomberg), and everyone’s like, “See? Dollar’s dead!” Nah, fam. Gold’s ripping because of tariff fears, geopolitical chaos, and central banks hoarding it like Smaug. It’s not a dollar killer—it’s just doing its own thing. We’ll break it down soon. Tariffs: Trump’s tariff plans (10–20% on imports, 60% on China) are shaking markets. They’ll make imports pricier, reduce USD outflows, and boost domestic demand for dollars. Bullish for USD, bearish for emerging markets. More on this later. Trump: The man’s a market wrecking ball. He’s out here calling for lower rates one day, tariffs the next, and probably tweeting about aliens by Friday. But his manufacturing push and tariff policies are USD rocket fuel. Ignore the noise—focus on the policy. Why You Should Care (And How to Profit) Look, I get it. You’re not here for a PhD in economics—you’re here to make money. So, why should you care about the USD? Because it’s the backbone of the forex market, and where the DXY goes, opportunities follow. A stronger dollar means: Forex Trades: Go long USD/EUR, USD/JPY, or even USD/CAD. The euro’s toast with that 2.25% rate, and the yen’s stuck in Japan’s low-rate purgatory (0.25%, per BOJ). Stock Market Impact: A stronger USD could pressure U.S. multinationals (exports get pricier) but boost domestic firms. Think Walmart, not Apple. Commodities: Oil and metals (priced in USD) could dip as the dollar rises. Short crude if you’re feeling spicy. Emerging Markets: Countries with USD debt (like Turkey or Argentina) are gonna feel the heat. Avoid their currencies like the plague. Here’s how we’re playing it at Edge-Forex: Long DXY: We’re in at the trendline break, scaling up if 100.28 breaks. Target 103, then 115 long-term. Risk Management: Keep stops tight below 99.5 (short-term) or 97 (long-term). Don’t bet the farm—markets love surprises. Stay Nimble: Watch for Fed signals, ECB moves, or Trump’s next X rant. We’ll adjust as needed. The Big Picture: Don’t Get Lost in the Noise I know it’s tempting to get sucked into the daily drama—Trump’s latest outburst, a hot CPI print, or some X influencer shilling a “dollar crash” thesis. But trading’s about cutting through the noise. Zoom out. Look at the 20-year DXY chart. Look at the interest rate gap. Look at the USD’s reserve status. The dollar’s not going anywhere, and it’s about to remind everyone why it’s the boss. My advice? Get out of the short-term clutter. Stop refreshing X every five minutes. Focus on the trends that matter: central bank rates, capital flows, and technical setups. The DXY’s setting up for a monster move, and we’re gonna ride it like surfers on a tsunami. Wrapping It Up: Let’s Make Some Freaking Money Alright, Edge-Forex fam, that’s the deal. The dollar’s not dead—it’s just been napping, and it’s about to wake up with a vengeance. The DXY’s forming a bottom, the charts are screaming “buy,” and the macro setup (rates, Trump, reserve status) is a bullish trifecta. We’re already positioned, and if 100.28 breaks, we’re going big. I’m back, baby, and I’m here to drop regular updates, roast the haters, and help us all stack some serious profits. Got questions? Drop ‘em in the comments. Disagree with my DXY call? Bring it on—let’s debate. Just don’t be that guy shorting the dollar while the rest of us are cashing checks. Stay tuned for the next post (gold’s getting its moment soon), and let’s make some freaking money together. Out!
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
9
GOLD market update: range locked / breakout pending🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update 📊 Technical Outlook Update 🏆 Market Overview ▪️broke above 3 000 USD ▪️3250 USD S/R cleared as well ▪️Tested 3500 USD key S/R ▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R ▪️pullback in progress currently ▪️locked inside range trading ▪️3275/3365 usd active range ▪️break below 3245 - BEARS take over ▪️break above 3385 - BULLS take over ▪️Bulls targets - 3450/3550 USD ▪️Bears targets - 3050/3150 USD ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️Wait for a breakout ▪️LONG/SHORT after breakout 🔥 Key Drivers to Watch 🌍 Geopolitics & Trade 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Tariffs: Escalation continues pushing inflation fears & gold demand 🇪🇺 EU–U.S. tariffs (25%) are further straining global trade 💵 Weaker USD = stronger gold sentiment 🕊 Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks 🗓 May 9 (Victory Day): Symbolic date eyed for a possible ceasefire announcement 🇷🇺 Parade vs 🇺🇦 EU leaders visiting Kyiv — all eyes on peace prospects ☢️ U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal 🗓 April 28: Talks in Rome 🇮🇷 Iran shows readiness — possible easing of Middle East tensions
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
37
EURUSD SellHello everyone! The first trade of the day will be on EURUSD. On the 5-minute chart, I’ve set the trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:1.50 and will open a sell position. The TP target is 1.12920 and the SL is 1.13130. It’s better to activate the trade immediately." Ve sonuna eklememi istediğin mesajla birlikte tam hali şu şekilde olur: Hello everyone! The first trade of the day will be on EURUSD. On the 5-minute chart, I’ve set the trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1:1.50 and will open a sell position. The TP target is 1.12920 and the SL is 1.13130. It’s better to activate the trade immediately. 🔔 I post detailed trade ideas and daily market analysis like this every day on my TradingView profile. 👉 Follow me to get notified and read the full breakdowns.
Short
by Nurlan_PT