DeGRAM | DXY growth in the channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and the support level.
The chart has broken the descending structure.
We expect the index to continue rising after consolidating above the resistance level, which coincides with the 50% retracement level.
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Dxyanalysis
DXY could start correcting soonThe last quarter of 2024 was exceptionally bullish for the DXY, with the price climbing from 100 to a peak around 109—a substantial 9% increase in a relatively short period.
The bullish momentum has continued into the start of 2025.
However, since late December, the price action has become more overlapping, which could indicate the potential for a reversal.
At present, the price remains above the bullish trendline, so there are no clear reversal signals yet.
That said, it’s important to monitor for a downside break. If such a scenario occurs, the index could drop toward the 106 support level.
DeGRAM | DXY decline in the channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel and has already dropped below the trend line.
We expect the index to continue its decline in the channel.
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DeGRAM | DXY held the supportThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The chart maintains an upward structure and has already reached the 62% retracement level.
We expect growth.
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Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 109.38
1st Support: 108.53
1st Resistance: 110.17
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DeGRAM | DXY prepare for correctionThe DXY is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic resistance and the upper boundary of the channel.
The chart maintains an upward structure, but the growth rate has slowed down and indicators indicate a hidden bearish divergence.
We expect a correction.
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DeGRAM | DXY bearish takeover from the resistance levelDXY is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic resistance, which previously acted as a pullback point.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern, and upon reaching the resistance it formed a bearish takeover twice.
On the 1H Timeframe, the indicators indicate a hidden bearish divergence.
We expect a pullback.
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DeGRAM | DXY the index will continue to strengthenThe DXY is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The chart has already consolidated above the dynamic support, which previously acted as a rebound point.
The price is holding above the 62% retracement level.
We expect the growth to continue.
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DeGRAM | DXY movement is in a rangeDXY is in a range, in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and is now testing the support level.
The chart maintains an ascending structure and is now holding in the accumulation zone after the correction. At the moment the indicators have formed a bullish convergence on the 1H timeframe.
We expect the price to rise if the index consolidates above the current range.
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DeGRAM | DXY back into the ascending channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price has reached the expansion level.
We expect a local correction in the channel for further strengthening of the dollar.
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Mighty Dollar Eyes Further GainsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) commenced the new year on a strong note, breaking out of its consolidation phase and surging toward the 109.50 level on January 2.
◉ Technical Observations
● The daily candle close on Friday formed an inside bar bearish candle, indicating a potential pullback in the week ahead.
● Immediate support levels are situated between 107.50 and 107.00.
◉ Market Outlook and Key Events
The US jobs report comes out on Friday and will be the main focus for the market this week. A strong jobs report could strengthen the US dollar, affecting emerging markets and commodities.
DeGRAM | DXY testing the resistanceThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic resistance.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern and is now testing the resistance level, but has not yet consolidated above it.
We expect a decline after a successful consolidation under the channel.
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Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 110.500
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Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the DXY (US Dollar Index) is: Bearish
Reasons:
Interest rate differential: The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate (4.50%) is high compared to other major economies, but the rate hike cycle is expected to slow down, which could lead to a decline in the DXY.
Economic growth: The US GDP growth (2.1%) is slowing down, and the economy is facing headwinds from trade tensions and global economic uncertainty, which could lead to a decline in the DXY.
Trade balance: The US trade deficit (USD 50 billion) is large and growing, which could put downward pressure on the DXY.
Fiscal policy: The US fiscal policy is becoming increasingly expansionary, which could lead to a decline in the DXY.
However, it's essential to consider the following risks:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and Europe, could lead to a flight to safety and support the DXY.
Geopolitical tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and North Korea, could lead to a flight to safety and support the DXY.
Fed's monetary policy: The Fed's dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts could support the DXY.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
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DeGRAM | DXY pullback from 50% retracement levelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic resistance.
The chart is holding under the 50% retracement level.
We expect a decline to the lower boundary of the channel.
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