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Dxyanalysis

Wave-by-Wave Adventure, US Dollar UnpluggedDecoding the US Dollar Index: Navigating Wave (V) with Thrills Since the economic tumult of 2008, the US Dollar Index DXY (USDX) has been on a captivating journey, tracing significant waves on its chart. As of now, it stands on the precipice of unfolding the final leg of this larger movement, marked as the thrilling wave (V) on the weekly chart. Weekly Chart Adventure: Wave (I), (II), (III), and (IV): Conquered. Wave (V): The adventure is just beginning. Daily Chart Expedition: Inside the thrilling wave (V), wave I, II, and III have been epic conquests. Currently navigating the challenging wave IV, a terrain of correction. 4-Hourly Chart Odyssey: Within the tumultuous wave IV, ((A)), ((B)), and the unfolding ((C)). Inside ((C)), embarking on subdivisions: ((a)), ((b)), and the imminent thrill of ((c)). Thrilling Wave Principles: Witness a double correction, an unexpected twist in the daily chart's narrative. The ongoing correction within wave IV on the 4-hourly chart involves a complex W-X-Y pattern, adding an unexpected thrill. According to the pulse-pounding Elliott Wave Theory, wave (2) should not retrace more than 100% of wave (1). Current Pulse: ((a)) of ((C)) is reaching its climax, with the suspenseful unfolding of ((b)) and the highly anticipated ((c)) yet to grip our attention. Critical Invalidation Level: 107.335 (A point of no return, a daring move beyond 100% retracement of wave (1) inside ((C))). Please Note: This analysis is not just a journey; it's a heart-racing adventure crafted for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Get ready for more twists and turns as we navigate the thrilling waves ahead...!! I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
TVC:DXY
by RK_Chaarts
2
DXY Technical Analysis and Trade Idea for Week Beginning 5th FebGiven that the markets are either correlated or inversely correlated with the US dollar, I'm always looking at the DXY dollar index at the beginning of the week to see how it's shaping up. In this chart we can see that the DXY is bullish it has been range bound previously, however we saw quite a strong rally on Friday with the NFP data release. We can now see the break above the range and I'm looking at the retrace for a potential entry point. We can see similar opportunities presenting themselves with the EURUSD the AUDUSD etc. in the video we touch on how the market shaped up prior to the NFP release on Friday and we look at a potential trade opportunity. As always this information is intended for educational purposes only and not to be taken as financial counsel.
TVC:DXYLong
by fxtraderanthony
DXY: The USD kept its weekly rise ahead of the Fed's decisionThe dollar edged higher in early European trading on Wednesday, heading for its biggest monthly gain since September, while the euro edged lower after weak inflation data. At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 103.352, on track for more than a gain. 2% this month. Dollar demand has been buoyant this month as traders trimmed expectations for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates due to strong U.S. economic data and reaction from central banks. naughty. The greenback was also supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have weighed on risk sentiment amid fears of a broader regional conflict. The US central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and so the focus will likely be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference to see if he will signal a cut. Analysts at ING said: “With US data releases - most recently December JOLTS data showing expanding employment opportunities - there appears to be little reason for the FOMC announcement tonight prompted the market to price in well above the current 130 basis point rate cut this year.” in a note. “This would be a neutral/positive development for the USD.” There's more labor data to study on Wednesday, in the form of ADP Private Payrolls for January, ahead of weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and then broad data on Friday. - viewed monthly salary reports.
TVC:DXYLong
by Chart_MasterPro
DXY Dollar Index Technical AnalysisThe DXY has demonstrated a notable rally on the 1-day (1D) time frame, exhibiting distinct range-bound price action as it operates within a previously established weekly distribution level. The absence of a discernible trend is evident, with the market remaining in a sideways movement for an extended period. With high-impact news events scheduled for later today, Thursday, and Friday, there is potential for a breakout from the current range, presenting opportunities with dollar pairs. It is imperative to clarify that this analysis is intended exclusively for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
DXY: Will the Fed Be a Catalyst for Direction in the USD Index?For the past two weeks, the DXY has been trading within a frustratingly narrow range, lacking clear direction. Today's FED press conference may provide some resolution to this stagnant pattern. Leading up to this event, prominent Fed members have cautioned against overly optimistic expectations regarding future rate cuts. They emphasized that the Fed does not intend to reduce the benchmark rate as rapidly as markets had anticipated. Supporting data further reinforced the Fed's stance. December's CPI surpassed expectations, indicating persistent price pressures, although much of this was influenced by base effects that are now mostly behind us. Additionally, January's flash PMI data and Q4 GDP print were strong, albeit slightly lower than the 4.9% growth seen in Q3. Despite this, equity markets rallied, and the unemployment rate now stands well below 4%, suggesting a positive outlook for a 'soft landing' or 'golden path' scenario. If the Fed identifies upside risks to services inflation due to the strong data, it will proceed with caution. However, there's a general expectation that the Fed's statement will adopt a more neutral tone. Technically, as indicated in the posted chart, the DXY is trading within a defined range between the 103.10 zone and the 103.70 zone. A breakout from either of these zones could provide insight into a medium-term direction. In my view, considering the market's overly optimistic anticipation of rate cuts and the upward pressure on prices, we may see a breakthrough above resistance. In such a scenario, a bullish medium-term trend could emerge, potentially driving the index back towards the 107 zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Preping for MondayThe DXY is presently confined within a range, evident on both the 1-day (1D) and 4-hour (4H) time frames. Given that it is the end of the week, I am exercising caution about active market participation, considering the customary manipulation observed on Fridays as smart money strategically targets stops, aligning them with the upcoming week's trend. In this video, we evaluate the dollar index and contemplate potential trade scenarios with dollar pairs for the approaching week. It is important to emphasize that this content is intended strictly for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
7
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis - Where Is The USD Heading?DXY Analysis: The Dollar Index (DXY) has exhibited range-bound behavior recently, lacking a clear directional bias. While there are bearish undertones, a confirmed downtrend requires a break below the current range followed by a failed retest. This video explores multiple timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour) to identify potential dollar direction in the coming days and week. Given the key role of the dollar in shaping currency markets, its trading action significantly impacts opportunities in other pairs. However, with the current sideways movement, identifying high-probability trades could be challenging, especially considering the increased risk associated with end-of-week volatility and potential stop-hunting activity. Disclaimer: This analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
The DXY Anomaly: Interpreting the Incoming CorrectionThis week's focus is on the potential for a minor retracement in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), highlighted by a noticeable bearish divergence when compared with the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures. This divergence is particularly significant as it suggests a weakening momentum in the dollar's recent uptrend. While both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures have succeeded in setting new highs, the DXY has not followed suit, failing to create a higher high. This disparity indicates that the upward movement in the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures could be attributed more to a liquidity-driven event rather than a fundamental change in market sentiment towards the dollar. As a result, we can anticipate possible bearish movements in forex pairs where the dollar is the base currency in the coming week. Conversely, in pairs where the dollar is the quote currency, there could be bullish movements. However, it is important to note that these expectations are also contingent on the performance and dynamics of the counterpart currencies in these pairs. Traders should monitor the DXY for early signs of a reversal and adjust their positions accordingly, keeping in mind the broader implications of a weakening dollar on various currency pairs. As always, a comprehensive approach that considers global economic news and geopolitical developments will be essential in navigating the forex market during this period of potential dollar retracement.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
The USD index look set to trade to and through 104We have remained bullish the US dollar the past few weeks, and continue to suspect there are plenty of shorts to be covered as markets finally concede that fewer Fed cuts are coming this year and already priced in. The dollar has posted a strong rally YTD, and after a brief consolidation momentum is trying to turn higher with a bullish outside candle. It's not major surprise to see it is holding beneath the 200-day EMA, but it did close above the 200-day MA. And if the US delivers a strong set of flash PMI figures or PCE inflation data, we suspect the US dollar can travel to and through 105 on its way to 105.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by CityIndex
DXY (Dollar Index) Longs from 102.200 back upThe dollar index is presently responding to my 14hr supply zone, leading to a visible bearish reaction. Given that this supply is part of a 2-day supply, I anticipate price to move upward to further mitigate this supply, potentially triggering a more stronger bearish response. With the breakout from consolidation, I anticipate clearer price action. I will be monitoring for price to reach a 10hr demand zone that has previously resulted in a BOS on the higher timeframe. Upon reaching this point of interest (POI), I will then be on the lookout for an accumulation to unfold. Confluences for Dollar buys are as follows. - Market trend is overall bullish on the higher timeframe - Price has broken structure to the upside on the HTF. - Price is currently reacting off a supply to trigger the pullback towards our demand - Theres lots of liquidity and imbalances that need to get taken above as well. - 10hr demand zone lies within the 0.78 fib range and it caused the BOS to happen P.S. While I don't engage in direct trading of the dollar, I utilise it for confluence, especially since this pair significantly impacts the others I monitor. There's a possibility of a short-lived bullish trend if the 2-day supply zone doesn't hold. However, given the initial reaction, a downward movement seems likely. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD, LET'S CATCH THESE PIPS!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
Is the DXY in a long term downtrend? DXY Downtrend The 6 month candle chart suggests we could be in for at least two red quarters which would suggesting positive markets..... which seems contradictory to the current sentiment BUT not the current charts (S&P, NASDAQ,etc). The weekly chart currently shows the critical resistance at $1.00 and we appear to be heading straight for it. I genuinely think that given the 10 month SMA turning to the downside will act as resistance and the three tests of the underside support may puncture the resistance and lead to further downside., As always there are no guarantee's but the DXY chart in my opinion currently looks bearish long term. I am currently looking at a time based analyses at the which will follow Time will tell PUKA OUT
TVC:DXYShort
by PukaCharts
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 103.400 back down!As the dollar has been consolidating in the past week, opportunities near the current price are limited. However, my nearest Point of Interest (POI) is a supply zone on the 14-hour chart. I am looking to capitalize on this by selling to continue the bearish trend observed in the dollar index. I'll be patiently waiting for a breakout from this range, aiming to fill the imbalances above and eventually reach our identified supply zone. On the flip side, if price breaks below the consolidation, it could tap into a demand zone, sweeping liquidity beneath the range. In this scenario, I anticipate a bullish reaction, possibly a temporary move to the upside before eventually targeting our supply zone. Confluences for Dollar sells are as follows: - Overall temporary trend for this pair is bearish so this idea aligns with that bias. - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the ranging price action - Price has left imbalances just below the supply that needs to get filled, validating our POI. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to be taken. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of supply if price wants to keep dropping lower. P.S. If price unfolds in a manner similar to how EURUSD is behaving, I will patiently await a breakout from this area. Subsequently, I will assess its behaviour and adapt my approach based on the information the market presents. Have a great week ahead traders!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
USD's Uncertain Horizon: Will the Dollar Weather Global Changes?Introduction: In this revised analysis of the DXY, we explore a multi-layered Elliott Wave structure comprising three main waves – blue, orange, and red – and examine their interactions within different corrective channels. This analysis also considers historical economic events and current global shifts to project potential future movements of the DXY. Wave Structures: Blue Wave: Represents the main wave in an ABC flat correction format. Orange Wave: A complex correction forming the blue Wave B. Red Wave: Another complex correction, creating the orange Wave B. Five Impulse Waves: Potentially part of or completing the Orange Wave C and Blue Wave B. Channels: Corrective Price Channel (1): Believed to hold the true value of the DXY. Further explanation will follow. Corrective Price Channel (2): Encompassing the red correction wave. Termination Channel: Contains the five impulse waves and is expected to be breached during the current DXY correction. Wave Dynamics and Historical Context: Post-Nixon Shock Movement: Following the Nixon shock, the DXY fell to around 80, completing the Blue Wave A. Sharp Rise to 164: Initially thought to be Blue Wave B, but I realize that naming such a significant and steep rise as a B wave might not align with conventional EWT principles. Typically, B waves are corrective and less dynamic compared to impulse waves, therefor I consider it as the first leg of the orange wave and labeled orange A Subsequent Sharp Decline: The fall to around 78 is labeled Red Wave A for the same reason. Rise to 121: This phase represents a complex correction that forms the Red Wave B, following a WXY pattern: * W: Manifests as a flat correction. * X: A simple correction. * Y: Takes the form of a Zigzag, which is more clearly visible in the smaller 1M Frame. Decline to 70: A sharp drop in a Zigzag pattern (seen in the 1M Frame), completing the Red Wave C and the Orange Wave B, notably ending behind the start of Orange Wave A. Current Movements and Future Scenarios: Rise to 114: Characterized by a shallow trend angle, suggesting it's a corrective wave. Ongoing Correction: Following the five impulse waves, based on Kennedy Channels Theory, the DXY is expected to break the Termination Channel, potentially descending to the 93-87 area. Scenario 1: Continuation of the Decline Description: If the DXY continues its downward trajectory, it would indicate that the previous impulse wave forms the final leg of the Orange Wave, which is in the form of a running flat. Impact on Wave Structures: This movement also completes the Blue Wave B simultaneously. Projection: Following this path, we would move towards completing the Blue Wave C, potentially reaching around 73. Analysis Viewpoint: This scenario aligns well with the Elliott Wave analysis, culminating in a regular flat correction for the DXY. Scenario 2: Rebound and New Impulse Waves Description: Should the DXY rebound from the current area and initiate a new series of 5 impulse waves, it would suggest that the Orange Wave C is developing in a Zigzag pattern. Expected Range: The completion of this pattern is projected to be in the 125-131 area. Further Classification: In this case, the Orange Wave would be categorized as WXY, forming the Blue Wave B behind the start of Blue Wave A. Implication: This would predominantly characterize the Blue Wave as an extended flat correction, potentially driving the DXY down to the 70 level, and possibly even lower to around 65 (corresponding to the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels). Likelihood: From my personal standpoint, this scenario appears to be the more probable outcome, with reasons for this view to be elaborated in the following section. Broader Perspective: Why is Corrective Price Channel (1) Considered the Real DXY Value? The question of the real value of the DXY post-Nixon shock is intriguing. Following this event, the US dollar ceased to derive its value from gold, marking a transition to what can be considered its true value. This shift turned the dollar into a piece of paper whose worth is determined by public perception, not unlike the way Bitcoin is valued today. During this time, the technology used to print the dollar was regarded as cutting-edge, much like computers that produce Bitcoin. When the DXY fell to around 80, Ronald Reagan's administration implemented expansionary fiscal policies and dramatically increased interest rates. Most countries were heavily reliant on the dollar at this time and had limited options for response, which led to the sharp green rise in the DXY, forming what I refer to as the orange A wave. The subsequent Plaza Accord saw the US and G7 countries take concerted steps to devalue the dollar, intending to bring it back to what was considered its natural level. This agreement played a significant role in reversing the previous sharp increase. As a result, I view the movement above Corrective Price Channel (1) as a consequence of extreme policy measures rather than a genuine market movement. These policies led to an artificial inflation and then deflation of the dollar's value within the channel, distorting its true market representation. Why I Believe Scenario 2 is More Likely to Happen: My belief in the likelihood of Scenario 2 stems from the concept embodied by the 'BRICS Group.' It's not just the group itself, but the underlying idea it represents that's pivotal. This notion reflects a growing weariness among many nations over the United States' dominance in the global economy, particularly through its control of monetary movements via the dollar. Increasingly, these countries are convinced of the need to break free from this American economic influence. There's a rising trend of nations seeking to support their own currencies more robustly, fostering trade exchanges directly in their local currencies. This shift represents a significant move away from the long-standing norm of viewing the dollar as the primary benchmark for other currencies. By doing so, these countries aim to establish a more autonomous economic framework, less dependent on the fluctuations and policies of the US dollar. Of course, the shift away from the dollar's dominance won't be immediate, and the US is well aware of this. America has formulated strategic plans to counteract the BRICS group's initiatives. This strategy began with imposing successive sanctions on China to curb its economic growth, then moved to geopolitical maneuvering in Ukraine, aiming to engage Russia in a prolonged, draining conflict. A similar approach has been considered for China, involving potential conflicts surrounding Taiwan. However, recent developments in the Middle East have led to a significant shift in America's focus. Originally aiming to maintain its global economic supremacy, the US is now increasingly involved in conflicts that center around protecting Israel. This involvement has drawn the US deeper into long-term, complex wars. Notably, its military actions in Yemen and the distribution of forces across Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea region increase the difficulties of controlling this war. America's repeated use of its veto power to block ceasefires has further impacted its global standing. Once viewed as a moral and diplomatic leader, the US is now perceived differently on the world stage, a change I believe will affect its international image for an extended period. This evolving perception and the shifting focus of US foreign policy are likely to result in an increasing number of countries seriously considering breaking away from the dominance of the US dollar. This trend suggests a growing alignment with the principles of the BRICS group, even if countries do not formally join it. The goal is to escape the overbearing influence of America and the G7 on their economies. In response to this shift, the United States is unlikely to passively accept these changes. It's anticipated that America will attempt to implement financial policies similar to those used in the 1980s. These policies were designed to elevate the dollar's value and prevent significant declines. This approach is expected to lead to the emergence of five new waves in the dollar's valuation, marking the final phase of this economic cycle. However, the global economic landscape of today is markedly different from that of the 1980s. Most countries now possess stronger economies, or at the very least, they have the capability to rely on their local economies for essential services. My analysis indicates that when the DXY reaches around the 125-131 range, the dollar is projected to fall to levels between 70 and 65, thereafter moving within a sideway Waves in a maximum value of around 110, which is expected to gradually decrease over time. An important note is that America appears to be seeking alternative strategies to maintain economic control. One such strategy is the control of the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin. This move suggests that America is preparing for scenarios where it may no longer be able to exert direct control over the dollar's value. Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult with financial experts before making any trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by ahmadsaad83
DXY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe DXY has exhibited a prolonged period of consolidation, while the higher time frame reveals a robust downtrend. In the video analysis, we observe notable price action, identifying a triple top with a spike above, potentially indicative of a stop run, suggesting the likelihood of continued downward movement. Additionally, the video explores the prospect of a break below the current range low, followed by a retest and subsequent failure, presenting a potential selling opportunity. It is crucial to emphasize that the information provided herein is not intended as financial advice.
TVC:DXYShort
by fxtraderanthony