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Dxyanalysis

Have DXY bottomed?Since the top from October last year, DXY has been in a strong down trend. However, considering the trend started back in May 2021, this is only a correction, in fact, it even stopped at the 0.618 Fibo. The recent drop under 101 support was, in fact, a false break, one more reason to believe the Usd index found its bottom. At this moment Dxy is trading in a confluence resistance: a recent low, and the falling trend line from the top, and a correction could follow. This potential correction should be considered a good opportunity to sell Usd pairs and my main focus is on EurUsd and GbpUsd. Only a drop back under 101 would change my bullish outlook for the index (bearish Usd pairs)
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
31
DXY Elliott Waves AnalysisHello friends. Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked). Also i will appreciate for ur activity. Thank you! Everything on the chart. Main target zone: 96 - 94 Stop: ~103.7 (depending of ur risk). ALWAYS follow ur RM . RR: 1 to 3 risk is justified Good luck everyone! Follow me on TRADINGView, if you don't want to miss my next analysis or signals. It's not financial advice. Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas! Open to any questions and suggestions
TVC:DXYShort
by trytofeelpositive
2
Beware of Relying on Dollar Price Moves to Predict Bitcoin's FutThe inverse relationship between the US dollar and Bitcoin has long been a reliable indicator for traders seeking to gauge the potential movement of the cryptocurrency market. Historically, when the dollar strengthened, Bitcoin tended to experience a decline, and vice versa. This relationship allowed us to make informed decisions and manage our portfolios effectively. However, it is essential to recognize that the dynamics of this correlation have started to shift, posing potential risks to our trading strategies. Over the past months, we have witnessed instances where the US dollar has weakened while Bitcoin continued to soar to new heights. This decoupling of the two assets challenges the reliability of the inverse correlation we have grown accustomed to. While it is tempting to continue relying on this relationship, doing so mindlessly may lead us astray and result in significant losses. Therefore, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and refrain from using dollar price moves to indicate Bitcoin's future direction. Instead, let us analyze the underlying factors that drive the cryptocurrency market, such as market sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and institutional adoption. By adopting a more holistic approach to our trading strategies, we can better position ourselves to successfully navigate the evolving landscape of digital currencies. In light of these developments, I encourage you to diversify your sources of information and stay updated with the latest market news and expert opinions. Engage in meaningful discussions with fellow traders, share insights, and challenge conventional wisdom. By fostering a community that embraces critical thinking and adaptability, we can collectively navigate the uncertainties of this ever-changing market. Remember, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to various external influences. Relying solely on the inverse correlation between the US dollar and Bitcoin is no longer reliable. Let us be vigilant, open-minded, and proactive in our approach to trading. If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to comment. Together, we can navigate these challenging times and adapt our trading strategies to ensure long-term success.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
DXY doesn't look too happy below 100Last week the US dollar index (DXY) closed at a 15-month low and beneath 100 for the first time since April 2022. Yet subsequent price action has seen a lack of conviction form bears, allowing prices to form a double bottom just above the March 2022 high and close with a Spinning Top doji yesterday. Given US yields are showing signs of stability (and hinting at a move higher themselves), it seems reasonable that the US dollar is due a corrective bounce over the near-term which brings 100.5 and the April low into focus for bulls. A break beneath the March 2022 high invalidates the bearish bias, but this could be raised to the recent swing lows if we see a decent break (or daily close above) 100.
TVC:US02YLong
by CityIndex
dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ... One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year. July FOMC meeting The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back. Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day. More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking. The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory. Foreign exchange outlook Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year? The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky. Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023 A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year. The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks. Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad. Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation. The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen. There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. . The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated. With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling. One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year. The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year. Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting. Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF. source passage : Federal Reserve
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
7 Dimension analysis for DXY 7 Dimension analysis 🟢 Analysis time frame: Daily 1: Price Structure: The market is currently exhibiting a bearish price structure with a corrective move. An inducement has already taken place, and the first order block (OB) is formed along with a gap and window area. There is also a supply area at the window. 2: Pattern: Various chart patterns are observed: Trend lines acting as perfect resistance. A rising wedge pattern with a downside breakout move already completed, leading to the start of a correction. A flag pattern formation. A double bottom breakout with heavy volume. A CIP (Change in polarity) expected at the gap. Candle patterns are as follows: Doji candle at the bottom, indicating a potential reversal. A record low session count of just 4 bullish candles, further supporting the reversal expectation. 3: Volume: Good volume is observed at the bottom, supporting the potential for a reversal. 4: Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: The Unconventional RSI is currently in the bearish zone but showing correction momentum. 5: Volatility measure Bollinger bands: Volatility recently finished walking on the band, and the move is now resisting at the mid band, indicating a significant resistance area. 6: Strength ADX: Bears are currently in strength according to the ADX indicator. 7: Sentiment ROC: The market is in a corrective phase, and the USD is strong during this correction. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish ☑️ Entry Move: Impulsive ✔ Support Resistance Base: Swing Order Block (OB) support ➕ FIB: Waiting for confirmation Trend Line: Waiting for a breakout when the price touches the support level. ☑️ Final comments: Consider buying at the dip. 💡 Decision: Wait until price takes liquidity from the bottom. 🚀 Entry: 100.57 ✋ Stop Loss: 100.425 🎯 Take Profit: 101.270 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:5 🕛 Expected Duration: 2 days.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by Optimum369
U.S.Dollar Currency (DXY) 💵Dollar Forecast Loaded with Volatility Potential but Can It Find a Trend? The Dollar has put in for a significant retreat these past few months, but recent bearish progress has come at a much more reserved tempo Event risk ahead is dense and may overlap in terms of market-moving potential, particularly between Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s FOMC decision Market liquidity and seasonal influence will be a critical consideration of trade in the week ahead with the subsequent final two weeks likely to see a significant drain in market depth From the DXY Dollar Index’s multi-decade peak set back on September 28th, the Greenback has undergone significant retracement. Then again, the tempo of that slide has been much choppier after the charged reaction of the October CPI release (back on November 10th) wore off. To better determine the potential of the world’s largest currency moving forward, it is critical to assess what is the most important motivation for capital flows into and out of the US going forward. On the one hand, I keep a steady focus on the Dollar’s safe haven status, but this more of an ‘absolute’ sentiment role. While the S&P 500 and DXY have experienced an inverse correlation the past six months, the 20-day rolling correlation at present is only -0.38 (inverted but of modest strength). The complication is that the US currency also has a yield advantage – that is heavily speculated upon – and the expectation for significant risk trends is uneven at best. While the week ahead promises/threatens serious volatility potential, the serial nature of its listing will likely work against gaining clear momentum behind a theme and thereby price. That said, expectations for an overloaded docket and seasonal drain will meet a backdrop of high, realized volatility (see the 4-week ATR below). The saying ‘this time is different’ is echoed through the markets for a reason. While the consideration of the Dollar’s safe haven status is something to always keep in mind, the need for an extreme reading to activate its influence should keep us focused on monetary policy first and recession concerns second. The US benchmark rate is just a quarter percent off the leaders – the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand – heading into the new week of trade. With the Wednesday FOMC rate decision, it is likely that the US central bank regains its top rank. Economists are forecasting a 50 basis point rate hike that would lift the benchmark to 4.50 percent with Fed Fund futures placing the probability of a half percent increase at 77 percent (the balance calling for a fifth consecutive 75bp move). While 50bp is still a large move, it is a slowdown from the incredible tempo these past six months. What markets will truly focus on the implications for how far – and how fast – the Fed will move in 2023. The so-called ‘terminal rate’ is seen at 5.00 – 5.25 percent reached by May. This will shift a lot of the focus on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which will include official interest rate expectations for the entire year. And, while the markets are pricing in expected rate cuts through the year, the FOMC members have been adamant that they expected to hold the rate after hitting peak. When looking at the DXY Dollar Index’s chart, the structure looks choppy without much in the way of clear technical guidance – that is likely because it is a composite of major crosses where there is far more trade that would establish the components technical backdrop. For fundamental insight, there isn’t a better representation of the Dollar than EURUSD itself. Beyond its position as the world’s most liquid currency cross, the monetary policy and economic considerations between the two draws lots of contrast. The Fed is set to moderate its pace of hikes to coast to a peak sometime around mid-2023 while the follow through of the ECB’s course is up in the air (the group is not particularly renowned for its messaging). Considering the European Central Bank is also on deck for updating on rates Thursday, EURUSD will see a back-to-back monetary policy update Wednesday to Thursday. That may act to amplify or cool any market movement here depending on the outcome, but rate expectations have been aligning more distinctly to the FX pair when using the EU to US 2-year yield differential as the proxy.
TVC:DXYShort
by moonypto
2
Time to temporarily increase DXY Index (4-hour time frame⏰)DXY is moving in a 🟢 heavy support zone($99.80-$99.44) 🟢 and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. In terms of Elliott wave theory, I expect the end of wave 3 to be complete at the PRZ, so we should look for bullish reversal patterns. As a result, one of the patterns you can see in the 4-hour time frame is the Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern . 🔔I expect the DXY to have a temporary uptrend to the 🔴resistance zone($101.30-$100.82)🔴 in the coming days. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
17
Will US Dollar fall to 2021 lows? The US dollar has recently fallen below its Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 100, an essential technical indicator for many traders. Based on this recent movement, there is a growing concern among experts that the US dollar could potentially drop to its 2021 lows. This noteworthy development requires careful consideration, particularly for those relying heavily on the US dollar in their trading strategies. Considering the US dollar's potential downward trajectory, I encourage you to explore the possibility of diversifying your currency holdings. Holding other foreign currencies could prove beneficial, as they may not be as susceptible to the impending drop in the US dollar's value. It is essential to approach this situation cautiously and conduct thorough research before making decisions. Analyze the trends, consult with fellow traders, and seek advice from trusted sources to ensure you are well informed about the potential risks and rewards. In light of these circumstances, I urge you to consider the following call to action: 1. Evaluate your current currency portfolio: Assess how much your trading strategy relies on the US dollar and consider diversifying your holdings to include other foreign currencies. 2. Stay updated on market trends: Regularly monitor the market and closely monitor the US dollar's performance. This will enable you to make informed decisions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. 3. Seek expert advice: Consult with experienced traders or financial advisors specializing in forex trading. Their insights and recommendations can provide valuable guidance during uncertain times. Remember, the purpose of this email is not to instill panic but to bring your attention to a potential market development that could impact your trading decisions. By remaining cautious and proactive, you can better navigate the volatile currency market and potentially mitigate potential losses.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD STILL BULLISHOur 12 AM Candle dictates we are bullish. Therefore we expect the algorithm to raid the imbalances and liquidity south to the Top of the 3rd or 4th Standard Deviation before it engages the Long and finish out this Quarters Theory. With this objective information one could aggressively short the market with the anticipation that price will short to the Top pf the 4th Standard Deviation. Or one could wait and watch price follow the script then Snipe the Long Entry at the 3rd or 4th bottom Standard Deviations. Core Retail at 8:30am EST. So there will be obvious set ups afterwards. Let the uninformed chase the news. The wise wait and eat well! The DXY is bearishly aiming at 99.720 so that gives us confluence that we are still very Bullish on US Base Assets like EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD etc ... Never Over Leverage. Your Risk Management must be impeccable so you can always retain your pips. Your risk management also allows you to stay in the game and mop up the needed lessons which are data points every Sniper in the market needs to develop into mastery. Always trust your set up aka trust yourself. Typically your are always correct- maybe just early or late- so work on your timing - Learn the specific times of day the algorithm moves price on the asset you are trading. #Mentorship - #SniperGang
by Master-Jedi-Trader
Bullish Pattern for DXYDXY ranging in a bullish flag pattern. DXY will enter to bull cycle if it moves to upper levels. DXY needs to close 50MA in daily line and it should be established above 50, 200 MA. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by rukshan2102
DXY + Federal government Interest payment | BRICS The problem with raising rates to deal with inflation is if you have debt the entire system will seize up. We should be understanding why on earth there is so much interest on Russia at the moment, its because the USA is literally stuck with too much debt, not low enough inflation, BRICS *Russia* notices this and has made a move right in our faces. And honestly Russia have done nothing but want to help throughout history they just want their fair share of resource profits, rightly so too. Middle east / Petrodollar. Russia / BRICS. This will mean the more BRICS + currency is adopted the less power QE in the USD will have meaning more QE until hyperinflation, good luck trying to stop a country with more nuclear weapons than all of us combined. The end of the dollar in its current form could be here before 2030. Gold / BTC sniffing this out. . .
TVC:DXY
by FederalXBT
US Dollar Reaches 3-Month Low; Get Ready for a Reversal!I bring fantastic news that will surely get your adrenaline pumping: the US Dollar has reached a 3-month low, signaling an imminent tightening by the Federal Reserve. Buckle up as we embark on an exciting journey to profit from this potential reversal! As astute traders, you know the US Dollar has been on a rollercoaster ride lately. However, recent developments have shed light on a significant shift that could present a lucrative opportunity for all of us. With the Federal Reserve hinting at tightening measures, it's time to gear up and take advantage of the situation. Now, let's get down to business. I encourage you to consider shorting the US Dollar while closely examining the market for signs of an upcoming reversal. We can potentially maximize our gains and minimize risks by positioning ourselves strategically. Timing is crucial, so be prepared to act swiftly when the market shows signs of turning. While we anticipate a reversal in the near term, it's essential to approach this opportunity with caution and maintain a balanced perspective. Market dynamics can be unpredictable, so staying informed, adapting quickly, and managing your risk is crucial. Conducting thorough research and analysis will be essential to your success. To help you stay ahead of the game, I recommend staying updated with the latest news, economic indicators, and expert opinions. Engage in discussions with fellow traders, and leverage educational resources that can provide valuable insights into market trends. You can make well-informed decisions and capitalize on this exciting opportunity by staying informed and connected. Remember, the forex market is dynamic and ever-changing. While we anticipate a reversal in the near term, we must remain adaptable and ready to adjust our strategies as new developments unfold. Embrace this opportunity enthusiastically, but always keep a level head and manage your risk responsibly. In conclusion, the US Dollar's recent decline and the Federal Reserve's tightening hints have given us an exciting chance to profit from an upcoming reversal. So, let's dive into action, short the US Dollar, and position ourselves for potential gains. Stay informed, stay connected, and be ready to adapt as the market evolves.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln