DXY set for big drop!DXY is in long term down trend. Currently price has broken out of the local resistance and grab strong liquidity and started to drop again giving us potential for further drop as the price has grabbed liquidity, highly likely DXY will continue to drop towards it's long term down trend
On the retest, of the resistance, a sell trade is high probable.
Dxyanalysis
DXY Investment Plan - 1/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect DXY to go Down after finishing the current correction in LTF.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
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Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
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DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% DXY, 90% Cash.
* DEATH CROSS WATCH . Final US Q3 GDP estimate was +3.2%, compared to a decline of -0.6% in Q2 , and was primarily led by upward revisions to exports, nonresidential fixed investments (IP and equipment) and consumer spending. The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate was 3.7% on 10/23 , with the next estimate due on 01/03/23. Russia announced a ban of oil sales to any countries or companies abiding by the $60 price-cap imposed by the G-7 (+ Australia) . North Korea sent 5 reconnaissance drones into South Korea and SK failed to hit any of them in their defensive counter-assault .
Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed that the latest BOJ move to allow their 10-year bond yield to rise to 0.5% from 0.25% shouldn't be viewed as an "exit" from their ultra-loose monetary policy and that they maintain a 2% inflation target , although investors are now betting on a higher likelihood of a departure from negative interest rates come next April when Kuroda's second 5-year term comes to end. The Treasury General Account and Reverse Repos seemed to have found a short-term floor and are expected to continue rising, which poses a threat to the Fed balance sheet but a bullish catalyst for US Treasurys, and lesser so for DXY. A continually rising Fed funds rate which is expected to top out at 5.1%-5.2% at the moment also acts as a bearish catalyst for Risk-On markets and bullish for US Treasurys, and lesser so to DXY. A main reason why DXY has been going down recently is due to a bounce in EURUSD, JPYUSD and GBPUSD; along with inflation coming down and a terminal Fed funds rate being anticipated in 2023.
Energy, US Equity Futures, DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, VIX, HSI, N100, EURUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD are up. US Equities, Cryptos, Long-Term US Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture and NI225 are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/03; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 01/03; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 01/04; December US Employment Situation at 830am 01/06. *
Price is currently trending sideways at ~$104 as it nears a retest of the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. The 50MA is currently trending down at $107 as it approaches a seemingly inevitable Death Cross if it is to cross below the 200MA at $106. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $103.85, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways as it tests 39.43 resistance for the ninth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bearish but is on the verge of crossing over bullish just below 86.26 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -0.832 resistance with no sign of peak formation at the moment. ADX continues to trend sideways at ~31 for the tenth consecutive session as Price continues to trend in a tight range for the same amount of time as it forms a Symmetrical Triangle, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$108 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.
DXY INDEX New Week Possible Move ??#DXY INDEX
- After a Consolidation Phase it has completed its next move and Forming a Corrective Pattern BEARISH CHANNEL
- Short Selling Divergence
- Rejecting from the S / R Level and Upper Trend Line
- After Lower Lows and Lower Highs it will Continue its Trend
- Break of Structure #BOS
DeGRAM | Dollar Index longDXY is moving sideways near the major support at 104 - 105.
Price action broke out of the descending channel, and it's decelerating while approaching the support.
We can see a double bottom and divergence.
We expect the resistance to be tested.
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DXY going to perform classic chart pattern and correction
I think it is time for DXY to perform another top and confirm it’s double top for a mid term correction, if It falls more than it supply area around 89 then we should see more falling down. But according to overall fundamentals and technical analysis it is not something that we would like to see.
Anyway, I think another bull move to 111 is necessary and maybe a bit more than last high (around 114) to face divergence in RSI and then start its falling down correction for more than 4 to 6 months.
DXY, Return and start growthDaily: The upward Falling Wedge pattern is successfully broken and starts a short-term growth. We also see a very strong positive divergence .
Upcoming targets: 105.650, 106.850 and 107.700
In the weekly time, a Pinbar candle has been formed, which can start a very strong upward trend. Hawkish Powell's words will also make the upward trend stronger.
So next week, we will see good growth.
Good luck.
DXY- Reversal underway?Since the 115 top at the end of September, the US Dollar index dropped hard with a more than 10% decline from the top to the recent 104 zone bottom.
However, the last month's drop from 108 top is contained in a falling wedge which is a warning of reversal.
Considering the long-term bullish trend for Usd and 104 very strong support on longer time frames I expect a reversal soon.
108 could be the bull's target with negation in case of a new low.
Buy dips slightly above 104 could also have a more than 1:3 R: R for medium-term traders.