Study of DXY, Gold, and Fed Fund Rates using 200MA indicatorBlack line: DXY (U.S. dollar index)
Green line: DXY 200 week moving average
Yellow line: GC (Gold futures)
Blue line: DFF (U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate)
Since 1971 when U.S. dollar went off the gold standard, there have been 6 instances when the DXY crossed below its 200 week moving average while it was rising. At closing on 27 September 2024 was the 7th instance of this DXY crossing.
Of interest:
Performance of gold when DXY crosses below, until DXY reaches a local minimum. Results are highlighted in purple boxes.
Of the 7 instances, interest rates were rising in 4, flat in 1, falling in 1, and presumed to be falling in the current scenario. The only rising rate period was 1985-92, when gold had a very marginal 4% gain. This was notably on the backside of the 1970's high inflation period. Technically, gold showed gains in all but 1 of these historical periods, with 1994-95 showing a 2% loss.
Conclusions:
1) DXY trend reversal downward is not always, or often, associated with a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle nor is it strongly correlated with gold price gains.
2) The start of a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle is not predictive of gold price gains.
Dxyanalysis
DeGRAM | DXY reached the dynamic resistanceDXY is moving in a descending channel under the upper trend line.
The price has already reached the dynamic resistance, which has twice acted as a pullback point.
The chart is under the resistance level and the retracement level.
We expect a decline.
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Dollar bulls are strong hereIt has now been exactly a month since the DXY dropped to its price at the start of the year, which also serves as a technical support level. The price has bounced back from this zone twice but has failed to break above the 102 resistance, falling back each time.
However, each time the bears attempted a decisive break downward, the bulls stepped in and pushed the price back up. Although the price did dip below the support zone on two occasions, these breaks were minor (around 0.2%) and did not qualify as significant.
Yesterday, the price once again reversed strongly from this well-established support zone. It seems as though the bulls are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a true reversal.
I anticipate that the USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks.
A break above the 102 resistance would confirm a bottom and open the path for further gains, with 104 as the next target.
DeGRAM | DXY downturn in the channelDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The chart has not yet reached the lower boundary of the channel.
After touching the dynamic support, the price bounced to the resistance level.
We expect a decline after the resistance retest.
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DXY continuation move expected**Monthly Chart**
Last month's DXY candle closed as bearish after a strong push down breaking the previous monthly range. This month's candle (which is still active) went lower and took out the low of Dec 2023. Currently, it is testing the low of July 2023 and MC (OB) area.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week, the candle closed as a bearish indecision candle after taking out the liquidity below the 26th of December 2023. DXY is currently in the demand zone and testing weekly Manipulation candles for July 2023.
**Daily Chart**
DXY overall trend is still bearish. The next target is around 99.50 which is the low of July 2023. I would like to see DXY continue its move lower to at least break the low of July 2023 before it moves higher.
USDJPY Plus DXY and JXY Technical Analysis👀 👉 The USDJPY pair recently broke structure bullish, as seen on the 4H timeframe. In this video, we closely examine the DXY, JXY, and USDJPY, discussing the trend, market structure, and price action. We also explore a potential trade setup.
**Disclaimer:** Forex trading involves significant risk, and market conditions can change quickly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📉 ✅
DeGRAM | DXY attempt to get a fix in the channelThe DXY is moving near an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The upper trend line has already acted as a rebound point.
Each time approaching the support level, the price bounced.
We expect the price to rise after consolidation in the channel.
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DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
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Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
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DeGRAM | DXY rebound from the channel boundaryDXY is moving in an ascending channel under the trend lines.
The lower boundary of the channel has already become a reversal point three times, and most of the time the chart has been in the upper part of the channel, which indicates an uptrend.
The price has not yet reached the support level.
We expect a rebound with a possible reaching of the support level before it starts.
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#DXY 4H On the 4-hour chart (4H) of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the price is currently in a downtrend, indicating a strong sell opportunity.
Sell Levels: 101.200 - 101.500
The price has reached a potential selling zone between 101.200 and 101.500, which is acting as a resistance range in the current bearish trend. This is a strategic area to consider short positions as the market may struggle to break above this level.
Target Level: 99.500
The expected downside target for this move is around 99.500, a key support area where the price might find some buying interest or consolidation after the bearish move.
Key Factors:
Downtrend: Lower highs and lower lows dominate the price action.
Resistance: The price faces strong selling pressure near 101.200-101.500.
Momentum: Indicators like RSI and moving averages suggest the trend is firmly bearish, with room to fall toward the 99.500 support.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for short entries near the 101.200-101.500 range.
Target: Aim for the 99.500 level as the profit target.
Stop-loss: Consider placing a stop-loss above 101.500 to manage risk effectively.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in line with the ongoing downtrend.
DeGRAM | DXY rebound from the retracement levelDXY is moving under an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price has reached the lower boundary of the channel and 62% retracement level.
We expect a rebound.
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DeGRAM | DXY growth in the channelThe DXY is moving in an ascending channel above the trendline.
The price is in the supply zone, between the correction levels.
The chart maintains an ascending structure.
The price is rising after reaching the lower boundary of the channel.
We expect the growth to continue.
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DeGRAM | DXY correctionDXY is moving in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The chart has broken the descending structure.
The price has already reached the dynamic resistance and approached the supply zone, which has repeatedly acted as a strong resistance zone.
We expect a correction if the price consolidates under the lower boundary of the supply zone.
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DXY's Trend in Question: Support Holding, But Bulls need 102In my Friday analysis, I mentioned that if the DXY drops below the support zone, defined by the recent low and the year's starting price, we could expect further downside.
Initially, following the release of the NFP data, the price did decline, but it quickly reversed after reaching the support level, forming a strong bullish reversal candle with a long tail on the chart.
While we can't confirm a trend reversal yet and USD bulls are still not in out of the woods, as long as this support holds, there is a strong possibility of a move to the upside.
For a clearer medium-term outlook, we need a break above the 102 level.
If this happens, the path to 104 should open up, and we can expect the price to rise toward that zone.
DeGRAM | DXY reached the retracement levelDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The descending structure is preserved.
The price has reached the resistance level coinciding with the 38.2% retracement level.
The chart has reached the dynamic resistance and the upper boundary of the channel.
We expect a pullback after consolidation under the resistance level.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist DXY "Dollar Index" Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
GBP USD Trade Setup 1 hour timeframe.Following the head and shoulder pattern formed on GBP USD last week the price has been pushing down as DXY continues bullish..
As we all know the market dose not move in a straight line up trend makes higher highs and higher lows, down trend makes lower lows and lower highs.
On the 1 hour timeframe GBP USD has broken a structure level to the downside, before we can sell we need to see a pullback of the next candlestick retesting the lower low level. ⏰