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Dxyforecast

DXY Daily TA BearishDXY Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash . *Treasuries (excluding the 30 yr Bond) and the Dollar are correcting after a bullish summer fueled by supply chain woes and recession fears. Supply chain woes have not been remediated but there is an element of the Bullwhip Effect that should be considered and that is the excess supply that can come shortly after an abrupt slow down in demand, this could lead to deflation which would naturally (yet artificially) reduce inflation. The recessionary fears on the other hand are starting to wane with every remotely bullish economic data point that is reported, speculators are even already betting on a 50bps rate hike in September. Just today Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that he would like to see EOY FFR at 3.9% and 4.4% by the end of 2023, he doesn't actually have a final vote on this but it's worthy of mention considering he has been rather dovish in recent years. Both money markets and Fed members have acknowledged that the EOY target for FFR in 2022 is 3.25%-3.75% (technically 3.15%-4%), so if the current range is 2.25%-2.5% (current effective rate is 2.3%) it would require 100bps or more over the next three Fed meetings in September, November and December to get to 3.25%-3.75% EOY FFR. As of now the most likely scenarios are: September 50-75bps, November 50-75bps and December 25-50bps. More clarity will arrive at the end of this month with PCE numbers due on 08/26 and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27. In other news, Disney reported beats on Q3 earnings and revenue but forecasted slower subscriber growth in 2024. Key dates remaining this week: PPI report at 830am EST 08/11 .* Price was rejected by the descending trendline from 07/14/22 and is currently trending down at ~$105.20; it is still technically testing the 50 MA as support at ~$105.58. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.87, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 43 after bouncing at 39 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from July 2020 as support at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish for a third session and is currently testing 24 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0 support with no signs of trough formation, if it breaks through this support then the next support is at -0.38. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 21 as Price continues, this is mildly bearish; if ADX can start trending up as Price continues to fall this would be bullish. If Price is able to defend support at the 50 MA (~$105.58) then it will have to break above the descending trendline from 07/14/22 at ~$105.75 in order to retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.70.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY reaching 36 years and 8 months old Resistance!!!I do not post traditional market stocks nor do I trade but I found this one somewhat interesting. DXY will soon be reaching its 36 years and 8 months old resistance. Reaching the resistance it has been forming since Nov 1985 (according to the data provided on tradingview) It will be interesting to watch the coming months as the US economy is facing tough situations here. Fall in GDP in two successive quarters. What do you think? How will it affect the stocks in the coming years? I would love to know your views. Let me know if you want me to look into some stocks. Do hit the like button, it helps! Stay safe #PEACE
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Cryptorphic
7
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXY Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% DXY, 75% Cash. * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was interviewed by NBC and explained that due to strong consumer demand, credit quality and employment, the widely anticipated two consecutive quarters of negative GDP would not constitute a recession. She is essentially the White House mouthpiece for the state of the economy and is saying that a healthy labor market and a strong consumer (she's referring to growing retail sales, positive GDI growth and "healthy" consumer credit) are currently saving the US from an economic recession. The Consumer Confidence Index (the leading gauge of US consumer confidence) is scheduled to report tomorrow (07/26) at 10am (EST), it has fallen for the past two months and is now at the lowest level since February 2021. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is currently projecting a rise in confidence from June to July and is scheduled to report at 10am (EST) on 07/29. With increases in layoffs and announced slowdowns in hiring I'm legit curious to know how the Employment Situation looks on 08/05; both the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department are notorious for relying upon lagging data, time will tell if this is one of those cases. With regards to the DXY there are two bullish catalysts at work here: 1) continued geopolitical turmoil and the resulting supply chain disruptions (leading to food and energy shortages) are pushing investors to US treasuries and 2) increases to FFR spillover into increases to overall economic rates, which typically push those looking for higher rates of return to dollar-denominated assets which in return pushes DXY higher. The current consensus on the EOY FFR from both money markets and FOMC members is around 3.25-3.5%, we are currently at 1.5%-1.75% (effective is currently 1.58%). That said, if the projected increases in FFR are to in fact take place AND the global geopolitical/supply chain situation continues to worsen, it would be reasonable to see DXY at 2000-2002 levels (~$120). Reminder that there was a "technical" US recession from March 2001 to November 2001.* Price is continuing to trend down at ~$106.50 after being rejected by $108 resistance; it is also forming a Bull Flag and may attempt to retest $108 resistance in the near term. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.57, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 52 and is beginning to form a soft trough after getting rejected by 59 resistance; the next support is the uptrend line from July 2020 at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently forming a trough as it attempts to cross over bullish at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0.65 support with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending down at 34 with no sign of trough formation as Price continues seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at ~$106.50 then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down, it will likely retest the 50 MA (for the first time since May) at ~$105 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY, Following Whooping Rate Hikes..Fundamental View: DXY is at critical point i.e 109. It has reached ATH after 20 years. In 2002, we saw DXY at this zone. DXY intends to break 109 zone as inflation is at it's peak, whooping 75bps and rumours of insane 100bps rate hike, positive NFP and also fear of recession causing extreme panic in the market. Investors are selling everything just to remain only in SAFE HAVENS. Technical View: DXY is at strong multi years rejection zone. We can clearly see DXY is trapped in Bearish Flag inside Bullish Channel. Price has finally travelled gradually up to reach upper trendline of Bullish Flag after 20 years. Q3 might be the breaking point of 109 zone only if fundamentals are strong otherwise TAs are extremely against further incline of Dollar. If it breaks above then God knows what brutality it might bring on to us. We have already witnessed crashes for past several months but We might see Mother of Crashes soon of Dollar keeps on strengthening. Feel free to share your opinions as well:)
TVC:DXY
by wickywicks
DXY more room for up before short sell DXY or dollar index had saw a nice bullish momentum for the upside, and that because of the inflation and the delta between dollar fed fund rate and the other foreign currencies rates. last week a ECB member told the press that the ECB will start to raise rates gradually this year to fight against inflation, this will narrow the gap between interest rates. DXY can push more up for this moment to 110.00 level before facing a major threshold where United States Dollar will be less attractive in comparison to other currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by ghattas360
Did the Dollar Index Just Top?This is a chart of the U.S. dollar currency index with Fibonacci Retracement levels applied. These Fibonacci levels take the entire history of the dollar index into account as they were drawn from the all-time high in 1985 to the all-time low in 2008. On the bottom is the monthly RSI. It is extremely rare for an asset to create bearish divergence on a timeframe as high as the monthly chart, as the dollar index just did at the close of June! Specifically, the dollar index closed June with a higher price than it closed in April but with a lower RSI. When price continues to move higher but the RSI moves lower this is a bearish divergence, and it usually indicates a reversal especially when the divergence occurs at overbought RSI levels. Bearish divergences have similarly been occurring on the weekly timeframes for the dollar index. These divergences are used by experienced traders as sell signals. Neither the commodity charts nor the Eurodollar Futures are confirming the dollar index's continued move higher. With the economy slowing rapidly, there's little reason to believe that the Fed will become any MORE aggressive than it already is. If the Fed will not get any more aggressive than is already priced in, the dollar index should not go any higher. While anything can happen, now that the dollar index has even reached a Fibonacci level, it seems quite likely that a major top is underway.
TVC:DXYShort
by SpyMasterTrades
6