Bullish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 96.99
1st Support: 96.38
1st Resistance: 97.90
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dxyindex
US Dollar Breakdown – Don’t Fight the FloodSince the start of the year, after forming a small double top around the 110 zone, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has followed only one direction: down.
So far, we’re seeing a decline that’s approaching 15%, with the index breaking multiple major support levels along the way. And judging by the current structure, there’s little reason to believe this trend will reverse any time soon.
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🔍 Short-Term View – Flag Break, More Losses Ahead
Zooming in, we can observe that the last rally was purely corrective — a typical bear flag formation. That flag is now broken to the downside, which confirms renewed bearish pressure and suggests that further losses are likely even in the short term.
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🎯 What’s Next?
The next major support zone sits around 95, a level that should act as a magnet if the current trend continues.
As long as price stays under 100 ZONE, the outlook remains bearish and the strategy should align with that bias.
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✅ Strategy Going Forward
The safe and logical approach now is to buy dips on major USD pairs:
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD
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📌 Final Thought
The structure is clear, momentum favors the downside, and the market is offering clean setups across multiple USD pairs.
Don’t fight the trend — follow the flow. 🟢
DXY 1D – Tipping Point: News or Price Action?Hey Guys,
The DXY index is currently moving within a downtrend. This trend is unlikely to reverse unless it breaks above the 98.950 level.
Sure, key fundamental data could shift the trend, but without those news catalysts, a reversal at this point doesn’t seem realistic.
Don’t forget—98.950 is a critical threshold for the DXY.
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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.00
1st Support: 96.48
1st Resistance: 97.77
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US Dollar Index 4-hour time frame, showcasing the US Dollar Index's performance over this period.
- The index is currently at 97.385, with a decrease of 0.636 (-0.65%) from its previous value.
- A red box indicates a "SELL" signal at 97.385, while a blue box suggests a "BUY" signal at 97.439.
- The chart includes various technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), to help traders analyze market trends.
U.S. Dollar Index Loses Key Support – Crypto Bull Run Loading?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has just broken below a long-term ascending channel, which has held since 2008. After losing the key horizontal support (~100 level), DXY retested and rejected from it (red circle), confirming a potential trend reversal. The move is technically significant and hints at further downside, possibly toward the 88–90 zone or lower.
This breakdown aligns with classic macro cycles, where a weaker dollar often fuels bullish momentum in risk assets, especially crypto. Historically:
-DXY downtrends in 2017 and 2020–2021 coincided with major Bitcoin and altcoin bull runs.
-DXY strength during 2018 and 2022 contributed to crypto bear markets.
With DXY now below both horizontal and diagonal support, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be entering the next expansion phase, especially if the dollar continues its downward trajectory
-DXY has broken below a 17 year rising channel – a macro bearish signal.
-Rejection from former support turned resistance confirms breakdown.
-A falling DXY historically corresponds with Bitcoin rallies and altseason expansions.
-Declining dollar strength could be the fuel that propels Bitcoin past $140K and Ethereum above $6K.
-A dollar bear trend may fuel total crypto market cap breakout beyond $4T+.
As DXY weakens, liquidity tends to rotate into risk-on assets like crypto. This setup mirrors pre-bull run environments seen in 2017 and 2020. A structural breakdown in the dollar could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major leg up.
Cheers
Hexa
DXY vs. CryptoAbove chart highlights the long standing inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and the Crypto Total Market Cap a relationship that has guided the macro trend for Bitcoin and altcoins since 2015.
in the first chart, When the dollar weakens (green ovals), crypto tends to rally. When the dollar strengthens (red ovals), crypto markets usually experience corrections or prolonged bear markets.
In the second chart, each period of dollar weakness aligns almost perfectly with explosive crypto upside seen in 2017, 2020–2021, and now potentially again in late 2024 through 2025. Conversely, periods of DXY strength (2018, 2022) coincide with crypto market downturns.
Currently, DXY is entering a downward phase, while the crypto total market cap is pushing higher, now above $3.8 trillion suggesting that a new leg in the crypto bull cycle may be underway. Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically performed best when DXY trends lower, as liquidity shifts into risk-on assets.
Key Points:
-DXY and crypto market cap show a strong inverse macro relationship.
-DXY in a clear downtrend from 2024 highs supportive of further crypto upside.
-Crypto Total Market Cap approaching all-time highs suggesting broad market strength.
-Potential for BTC > $150K and ETH > $6K+ if this macro divergence continues.
-This setup resembles early 2020, right before the massive crypto bull run.
If the dollar continues to weaken structurally, crypto markets led by Bitcoin and Ethereum could see accelerated momentum, pushing into parabolic territory by late 2025.
Cheers
Hexa🧘♀️
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY) from CAPITALCOM, showing a current value of 98.040 with a 0.23% increase (+0.222). The chart includes recent buy and sell signals at 98.094 and 98.040, respectively, with a highlighted resistance zone around 98.706-99.000 and a support zone around 97.291-98.040. The timeframe covers data from early July to mid-August 2025.
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99..15
1st Support: 96.54
1st Resistance: 100.57
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY area to watch.Approaching the extreme of the recent bearish leg. If it holds, then expect most major pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD etc) to continue their upside momentum. If it fails, then we can expect to see further downside moves on the majors.
As per my strategy. That extreme POI swept a previous high, created the BOS, and sits beautifully on the 71% retracement level. The majority of my confluences are ticked, just missing that clear 'Imbalance'. So now we wait, and monitor the reaction on the 4H. If we see a nice clean liquidity sweep, BOS + Imbalance then I'm in for sells.
Let me know your thoughts, anything can happen!
FX Setup of the Day: EURAUD SELL ZONEHey traders 👋
📌 SELL / EURAUD – Technical Breakdown
🟢 Entry: 1.78579
🎯 Target 1: 1.78304
🎯 Target 2: 1.78026
🎯 Target 3: 1.77636
🔴 Stop Loss: 1.79039
📈 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.00
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🎯 Clear targets, solid strategy.
🤝 Let’s move forward with logic and discipline.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis
The addition of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to FXOpen’s suite of instruments offers traders potential opportunities. This financial instrument:
→ serves as a measure of the overall strength of the US dollar;
→ is not tied to a single currency pair but reflects the value of the USD against a basket of six major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, and GBP;
→ allows traders to capitalise on price fluctuations in the currency market;
→ is used in more advanced strategies for hedging risks in portfolios sensitive to sharp movements in the US dollar.
In today’s environment of heightened volatility, this instrument becomes particularly valuable. The active stance of US President Donald Trump — through the implementation of trade tariffs, sanctions, and unpredictable geopolitical rhetoric — gives traders even more reason to closely monitor the DXY chart.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Moving averages show that the US Dollar Index displayed a predominantly bearish trend during the first half of 2025.
However, the picture shifted in July: the index began rising steadily (already up approximately +1.9% since the beginning of the month), highlighted by the blue ascending trend channel.
This suggests that the DXY may have found support following a prolonged decline, and a shift in market sentiment could be underway: after a bearish phase, a period of consolidation may follow. If this scenario plays out, we could see DXY oscillating between the 97.65 and 99.30 levels – both of which show signs of acting as support and resistance (as indicated by the arrows).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 99.26
1st Support: 97.81
1st Resistance: 100.26
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Outlook: Bullish Move Fueled by Fundamentals & GeopoliticsTechnical Analysis (4H Chart & Broader Context) 📈🕓
The DXY 4H chart shows a clear bullish trend 🚀, with higher highs and higher lows since early July. DXY has caught a strong bid, breaking above short-term resistance near 98.40 and now eyeing the previous swing high 🎯. This matches the consensus among analysts: DXY remains in a bullish structure, with momentum supported by both technicals and macro factors.
Key resistance: Next upside target is the previous high (around 99.60 on the chart), with further resistance at the psychological 100 level 🏁.
Support: Immediate support at 98.20, then 97.60 🛡️.
Momentum: Strong bullish candles and no major bearish reversal signals on the 4H. Some analysts note positioning is stretched, so a short-term pullback or consolidation is possible before more upside (IG).
Fundamental Analysis 💹🌍
Why is DXY rallying?
Fed Policy & US Data: The US economy is resilient 💪, with robust services data, strong retail sales, and a recent uptick in core inflation. The Fed is less dovish, with markets now expecting a slower pace of rate cuts 🏦.
Interest Rate Differentials: The US keeps a yield advantage as the Fed is less aggressive in cutting rates compared to the ECB and BoJ, especially with Europe and Japan facing weaker growth and possible further easing 🌐.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing trade tensions (Trump’s tariff threats) and global uncertainty (including Middle East risks) are driving safe-haven flows into the dollar 🛡️🌏. DXY typically strengthens during periods of geopolitical stress.
Positioning: CFTC data shows USD long positioning at multi-month highs, which could mean the market is crowded and vulnerable to short-term corrections ⚠️ (IG).
Trade Idea (Bullish Bias, Targeting Previous High) 💡💵
Setup:
Bias: Bullish, in line with the prevailing trend and macro backdrop 🟢.
Entry: Consider buying on a minor pullback to the 98.20–98.40 support zone, or on a confirmed breakout above the recent high 🛒.
Target: Previous swing high near 99.60, with a stretch target at 100.00 🎯.
Stop: Below 97.60 (recent swing low/support) ⛔.
Risk Factors:
Overbought positioning could trigger a short-term pullback ⚠️.
Any dovish surprise from the Fed or rapid de-escalation in global tensions could cap further gains 🕊️.
In summary: The DXY’s bullish trend is underpinned by resilient US data, a hawkish Fed, and global risk aversion. Your bullish bias is well-supported, with the previous high as a logical target. Watch for short-term pullbacks, but the broader trend remains up unless key support is lost. 🚦
$USIRYY -U.S Inflation Rate Seen Rising for 2nd Month (June/2025ECONOMICS:USIRYY
June/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated for the second consecutive month to 2.7% in June, the highest level since February, up from 2.4% in May.
On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%, marking the largest increase in five months.
Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to edge up to 3% from 2.8%. Monthly core CPI is also anticipated to climb 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May, marking its sharpest increase in five months.
A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the (DXY)A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
We don’t even need to say that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is one of the most influential benchmarks in global currency markets. The index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, experiences heightened volatility and presents potential opportunities.
Understanding the DXY: A Macro Lens on the Dollar
The DXY tracks the relative strength of the US dollar versus a weighted currency basket including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Although the euro comprises nearly 58% of the index, the DXY reflects broad USD strength or weakness across global markets, not just against a single currency.
Traders and analysts use the DXY as a key macro indicator—to track policy divergence between central banks, to hedge USD exposure, and to assess broader market sentiment. Rising DXY levels often signal tightening US policy or global risk aversion, while declines may reflect weakening growth expectations, dovish Fed policy, or geopolitical stress. In volatile environments like 2025, the DXY serves as a real-time barometer of global confidence in the US economy and dollar-based assets.
Recent Price Swings: Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty Shake the Dollar
Since April, the US Dollar Index has faced one of its most volatile stretches in years, driven by a convergence of Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and new trade tariffs announced by President Trump.
April: “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trigger Market Shock
On 2 April, the announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—10% on nearly all imports, with higher duties on selected countries—jolted currency markets. The DXY fell over 2% in a single day. In the following weeks, the index continued to decline as business confidence deteriorated and early signs of recession risk emerged.
May–June: Policy Headwinds Compound Dollar Weakness
As the tariff package took effect, the dollar extended its slide—marking a ~10% drop from its late‑2024 peak, the worst first-half performance in over 50 years. Investors reassessed US growth prospects amid the pressures of trade friction. The Fed responded with a hawkish pause, while President Trump publicly urged for rate cuts, further muddying the policy outlook and pressuring the dollar.
July: Uncertainty Builds
By early July, the DXY had fallen below 97, tallying an approximate 11% year-to-date decline. Analysts cite a “perfect storm” of expanding fiscal deficits, erratic trade decisions, and growing doubts over US policy credibility as key reasons for the dollar’s fall from favour.
Why DXY Matters Now More Than Ever
The DXY has become a real-time gauge of market confidence in US policy stability. The dollar’s sharp decline in 2025 underscores how fragile that confidence can be in the face of aggressive trade measures and uncertain monetary direction.
The introduction of Trump’s tariffs has raised structural concerns among investors:
- Growth expectations have been cut due to higher input costs and supply chain friction.
- The so-called safe-haven appeal of the USD has eroded, with flows shifting to the euro, Swiss franc, and gold.
- Foreign demand for dollar assets has softened, as fears of a prolonged trade conflict and fiscal indiscipline mount.
In this climate, the DXY has evolved into a barometer for geopolitical tension, inflation fears, and investor sentiment towards US leadership.
Bottom Line
The DXY is not just a tool for dollar specialists—it's a key reference for any trader dealing with macro-sensitive instruments. As the global rate environment continues to shift and the US economy shows mixed signals, the DXY may become one of the most revealing indicators to watch and trade in the second half of 2025.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dollar Index Seems BullishFrom the previous week candle we see that Dollar Index has closed bullish. And in this scenario we can expect Dxy to go further higher. It has hit the previous week high and touched supply zone residing above. The two possibilities have shown in the chart are
1: After touching supply zone we expect to have deeper pullback.
2: It will have short retracement and then continues hgiher.
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.21
1st Support: 96.50
1st Resistance: 100.58
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals:
The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967.
Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA).
Fundamentals:
The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays.
A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations.
Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs.
Current narrative:
The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency.
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.