DXY increased in price abnormallySometimes, it’s not worth overcomplicating things.
While the (negative) correlation between real yields and gold has deteriorated in recent months, after-inflation interest rates remain one of the biggest factors driving the performance of the yellow metal.
With the benchmark US 10yr Treasury yield carving out a potential near-term bottom last week and rising to a two-week high today, gold accordingly topped out last week and has fallen to a two-week low. Now moving forward, the key level for bond and gold traders to watch will be the 4.31-2% level that has served as consistent support/resistance dating back to at least 2022. If yields can rally above that level, it could spur on another leg lower in gold prices.
DXY is strong when it releases 1-year bond yields, but this is just a temporary move when things are not going well for US data
Dxyindex
Strong Dollar: Geopolitics , US Economy & Tech Drive Currency UpThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a surge, reaching unprecedented highs. This brief explores the key drivers behind this trend, including geopolitical dynamics, contrasting macroeconomic conditions, and the US's dominance in the technology sector.
* Geopolitical Uncertainty: Heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, raise concerns of regional instability. Historically, such events trigger a "flight-to-safety" phenomenon, where investors seek refuge in stable currencies like the US Dollar. Additionally, the potential for increased terrorist activity and political unrest in Europe as a consequence of these tensions could further propel capital flight towards the US, bolstering the Dollar's value.
* Favorable US Macroeconomic Fundamentals: The US economy exhibits robust performance compared to Europe, characterized by strong GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and relatively stable inflation. This economic strength is further amplified by the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation. These factors make US assets more attractive to investors, driving up demand for the Dollar.
* US Technological Preeminence: The US is a global leader in technology, housing some of the world's most influential companies like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google. This concentration of tech giants fosters significant economic growth and innovation. Moreover, it attracts substantial global investment into the US, further strengthening the Dollar. Conversely, Europe lags in the technology sector, limiting its ability to attract similar investment flows. This technological disparity incentivizes investors to favor US markets, contributing to the Dollar's appreciation.
In conclusion, the rising Dollar Index is a result of a confluence of factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are prompting investors to seek safe havens. The robust US economy and its dominance in the technology sector offer further advantages compared to Europe. As these dynamics unfold, the trend of a rising Dollar Index is likely to continue, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors globally.
DXY MARKET FORCASTSince the beginning of the week, the DXY has been giving us a correction after last week's impulse move. The market has already broken above the correction area, which was a downtrend in the smaller timeframes. Therefore, I'm expecting the DXY to continue pushing up further, as it has been respecting the setups from my previous analysis. This means the DXY will likely continue rising, and on the other side, we'll be looking for sell opportunities in the gold market and dollar pairs.
USD/CAD:USD Faces Pressure Amid Eurozone Political UncertaintyEid Mubarak to all our Muslim brothers and sisters,
Permit me to do a detailed commentary of economic event on EUR, CAD, and USD.
Eurozone Political Instability Impacting the Euro
The Euro remains under significant pressure, primarily due to escalating fears of a financial crisis in France. Political turmoil and economic instability in the Eurozone, particularly in one of its key economies, have shaken investor confidence. This instability has led to a weaker Euro as investors seek safer assets, impacting currency markets globally.
Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Positive Economic Data
The Canadian Dollar, commonly referred to as the Loonie, saw a notable increase in value on Friday. This upward movement was driven by positive economic data from Canada, which reported a 1.1% rise in factory sales. The stronger-than-expected performance in the manufacturing sector has boosted investor confidence in the Canadian economy, thereby strengthening the Loonie.
Federal Reserve's Policy and Its Effects on USD
The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting introduced a slightly hawkish tone, which initially led to a rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. However, following the meeting, these expectations have diminished. The Fed’s stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, which has implications for the USD's strength. The reduced likelihood of significant rate cuts has provided some support to the US Dollar.
USD/CAD Outlook and Market Sentiment
Looking at the USD/CAD outlook for Monday, bearish momentum is evident as the US Dollar experiences a decline. This drop is largely attributed to the ongoing political uncertainty in the Eurozone, which has ripple effects across global financial markets. Despite the Fed’s hawkish hints, the prevailing sentiment reflects a cautious approach among investors, influenced by geopolitical and economic concerns.
In summary, while the US Dollar initially climbed due to Eurozone instability, the overall outlook for USD/CAD appears bearish. The interplay between Eurozone political issues, positive Canadian economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will continue to shape market dynamics in the near term.
Cheers and happy trading!
DXY MARKET FORCAST ON MONDAYOn the 1-hour time frame, the DXY is ranging between 105.505 and 105.774. If the market breaks below 105.505, we anticipate buying opportunities in the gold market. Conversely, if it breaks above 105.774, we expect selling opportunities in the gold market. This is my current perspective on the DXY. From these key levels, the market has been respecting. Last week, the DXY formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, followed by an impulsive move. Currently, it might be forming a correction or a bullish flag. We will wait to see which direction it breaks before pursuing opportunities in the gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD markets.
$VIX 's strong chart indicates an incoming volatility#vix volatility index chart made double bottom and W bounced. The bullish movement will likely continue even more while the chart made bullish flag in lower time frame.
Also recent days #dxy dollar index chart made a bullish breakout and while VIX and TVC:DXY are both getting stronger, this will not likely be good for #btc #altcoins #stocks etc. I think something is cooking... Better not to be over greedy. Not financial advice.
DXY Weekly Out look 16 June 24Monthly: Price has been taken the PML & April Low liquidity, Now its momentum is up side towards the M-BSL- 106.200.
Monthly Bias: Bullish
Weekly: Price has closed upside forming a W-VI from the previous week opening, a W-MSS+ has been formed. So the weekly momentum is bullish in weekly level, but as there is a W-VI in the upcoming week the price could a give a shallow reverse to the VI then the actual move will be formed. In the weekly level the upside target is 106.169.
Weekly Bias: Bullish
Daily: The price has been coming from the Daily OB from bellow, it already formed a body closer in the weekly Imbalance, & the price has been taken the D-BSL up side, so as the daily level BSL has been taken so in the up coming week the price could give us a shallow pull back towers the D-OB-CE then it will move upwards.
Daily Bias: bullish
DXY Bullish rallies from 105.200 or 104.400The bias for the dollar is to continue its bullish trend. We have seen a change of character on the higher time frame followed by a break of structure, confirming the upward movement. There are also equal highs above the current price that need to be swept.
Due to recent bullish momentum driven by news, the price may be exhausted. At the start of the week, we might see a drop in price as it mitigates a demand zone. Once the price taps into one of these marked demand zones, I expect a bullish reaction.
P.S. Once the price moves up, it may react to the 8-hour supply zone, causing a temporary sell-off. However, I won’t be surprised if this zone gets violated due to the liquidity pool sitting above it.
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world.
- Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..)
- When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength.
- When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up.
- it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine".
- i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience.
- actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes.
- So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things :
- You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend.
- So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? )
- MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol.
- i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe.
- So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index)
- ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly.
- In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator.
- So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way.
- First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns.
- Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish.
- So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later.
- it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders.
Happy Tr4Ding !
$DXY going higher!I expected TVC:DXY to dive to 97 before this because I didn't think the BOJ could hold on this long. I guess we need the dollar to go higher to make the BOJ to dump treasuries so the FED can cut rates and metals can hyperinflate.
TVC:DXY is bull-flagging and TTM squeeze is ready on EVERY TM!
That means a huge slam for gold is coming up...
Crude Oil - Bullish long-term - Bearish short-termCrude oil moved as we expected. Now in the next days we can expect it to follow the red scenario and reach the $75 area. If we see prices around $75 I'll put another update.
Context is BULLISH for Crude oil and DXY is showing weakness after yesterday's FOMC meeting and the market is more confident about the rate cuts in September than last week. SO BE CAREFUL with your short positions.
DXY could rise back to 106.50 resistanceThe beginning of May marked the start of a correction for the DXY, with the index dropping from 106.50 to the 104 support zone.
However, after finding support around 104 and undergoing a few days of consolidation, the much stronger-than-expected NFP data last Friday led to a reversal for the US Dollar, as evidenced by a significant bullish engulfing pattern on our daily chart.
Yesterday, the index also broke above horizontal resistance, and at the time of writing, the price is 105.18.
I expect the uptrend to continue, potentially leading to a new test of the recent high at 106.50.
DXY and USD Pairs Technical Analysis and Trade Idea In this video, we provide a succinct analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and its potential impact on USD pairs. Following recent bullish momentum, the DXY has become overextended, reaching resistance levels. Currently, we observe a significant retracement toward support. Our main goal is to identify an optimal buy entry point within this critical support zone, assuming price action aligns with our analysis from the video.
As always, the video offers valuable insights into trade entry points, trend analysis, market structure, and price action. It’s essential to recognize that this content serves an educational purpose and should not be construed as financial advice." 📈🚀📊
$DXY breakout?#dollar index, #dxy broke out the falling channel with yesterday's dump on assets like #gold #silver #btc thus, money has flown into #usd .DXY did 2 fake outs in a month. If this is a real breakout, all markets, #currencies #altcoins #metals #commodities #crypto etc. may taste a blood bath period.
Not financial advice.
DXY monthly Price analysis 3 June 2024Monthly Chart: The price has rejected from the monthly OB then, It created a M-MSS. Now month of June the price has goin bellow the TMO before the NFP week. So we could anticipate that rest of the month the price will go upward.
Monthly Bias: Bullish
Weekly Chart: The price is going down towards the PML W-SSL. There are W-FVG along with W-BPR & W-OB which might work as a resistance. If we have any H4-MSS+ after the NFP news events from those W-PDA's then our weekly Bullish Bias will be confirmed.