$BTC.D and $DXY are in diametrically opposite directionsIn this blog space we have been discussing Bitcoin Dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) since Dec 2024. On 9th Feb 2025 I posted a blog where we discussed the Fib Retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart and we said that we can expect more upside and has broken past 0.618. I said it is possible that the dominance can reach the 0.786 Fib level at 66.12%.
I tried to plot the Dollar index TVC:DXY in the same weekly chart as CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and it was quite surprising that the FIB retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D are the same as the top to the bottom levels in the TVC:DXY chart. We are looking at the last 5 years for our analysis.
When CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has broken past 0.618 Fib level and trying to reach 0.786 @66.12%. But the TVC:DXY has broken below 0.786 and in the near term the TVC:DXY level can end up at 0.618 Fib levels which can take TVC:DXY to 104.
So, in the near to medium term is CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D @ 66.12% and TVC:DXY @ 104.
Dxyindex
Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊
Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109.
A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely.
Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93.
🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals.
⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Gold: Northbound GoGold Market Outlook: Northbound Momentum Persists Amid Inflation and Trade Concerns
XAU/USD Rebounds from Inflation Shock, Poised for Further Gains
Following a temporary shakeout triggered by inflation data, gold (XAU/USD) has regained its bullish momentum, reinforcing the narrative of an ongoing uptrend. The precious metal demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back from its dip to $2,865 and reclaiming higher levels as buyers stepped in swiftly. Currently, gold is navigating a pivotal zone around $2,908, a level that could determine the next major price move. Key upcoming events, such as the release of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, will likely influence gold's trajectory in the short term.
Macroeconomic Landscape: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Trade Risks
The broader macroeconomic environment remains supportive of gold, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic landscape, further bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance in response to rising inflation, resulting in higher bond yields that temporarily pressured gold prices downward. However, investors quickly capitalized on the dip, reinforcing the metal’s strong underlying demand.
The upcoming PPI report will be a critical factor in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s next move. Should inflationary pressures remain elevated, gold could benefit as investors hedge against potential economic turbulence. Conversely, a softer PPI reading might provide temporary relief for the dollar and yields, exerting short-term pressure on gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Sentiment
Gold’s price action suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase within a key support zone. The $2,900–$2,908 range has emerged as an important battleground for bulls and bears. If buyers maintain control above $2,908, the potential for gold to retest and surpass its all-time high (ATH) in the medium term remains strong.
Key Resistance Levels:
$2,920: A critical near-term level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum.
$2,929: A significant resistance point that could attract selling pressure but, if surpassed, would signal continued strength.
$2,942: A breakout above this level could set the stage for a new price discovery phase.
Key Support Levels:
$2,908: The immediate support level that must hold to maintain bullish sentiment.
$2,902: A deeper retracement zone that could serve as a springboard for another leg higher.
Additionally, traders should closely watch the $2,918–$2,920 region, as consolidation above this zone would reinforce bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of an extended rally.
Conclusion: Gold’s Path Forward
Gold remains well-supported by macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary concerns, with technical indicators pointing to further potential upside. While short-term fluctuations may occur in response to economic data releases, the broader trend suggests that XAU/USD is positioned to continue its northbound journey. Investors should monitor price action around key levels, as a successful defense of support at $2,908 or a decisive break above $2,920 could confirm the next directional move.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and geopolitical risks in focus, gold remains a crucial asset for portfolio diversification and risk management. As market participants await further economic data, the precious metal's resilience underscores its role as a preferred safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
Scenario on DXY 13.2.2025I would see the dollar index like this if I was considering going short I would first consider going above the monthly level of 108.048 if the market continued then I have one more SFP at a price around 108.6 if I was going to talk about a long position then first around the monthly level of 107.053 then the next one below the daily level of 106.724.
**DXY 4H Analysis: Ascending Channel Support, Bullish Move AheadThis DXY 4H chart shows an ascending channel with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) points. The price is currently near the lower trendline support, around 107.754, suggesting a potential bullish reaction.
A minor BOS has formed, and a possible retest of the 108.000 zone could act as confirmation for a bullish move. If the price holds above this support, the next upside target is around 110.062. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline could indicate weakness, with support levels at 107.706–107.675 and a stronger demand zone lower around 106.400.
Gold Alert: Testing 2881 Risk Zone!Gold at a Crossroads: Awaiting Key Triggers
XAUUSD is navigating a critical juncture, testing a pivotal risk zone that could dictate its next major move. From this level, we either witness a trend continuation or a deeper corrective phase.
Key Drivers: CPI Data & Policy Uncertainty
All eyes are on the upcoming US CPI report, which could inject fresh momentum into the market. Inflation figures will play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, influencing both gold and the broader financial landscape.
Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic uncertainties add complexity. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is preparing new tariffs, which could introduce fresh volatility and global economic risks. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing expectations of only a single rate cut in July. This has pushed bond yields higher, creating additional headwinds for gold.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 2898, 2910, 2929
Support: 2881, 2870, 2855
Potential Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Case: A false break below 2881 could signal ongoing bullish momentum. If buyers defend the 2881 – 2885 zone, gold may stage a rally towards 2930 – 2950 in the short to medium term.
🔹 Bearish Case: A decisive break and consolidation below 2881 could trigger a wave of liquidation, driving prices lower towards 2855 – 2848.
Market Sentiment: A Stalemate Before the Storm
With crucial news ahead, the market is at a tipping point. Whether gold surges or sinks depends on inflation data, Fed policy clarity, and potential tariff developments. Traders should brace for volatility as these catalysts unfold.
Gold (XAUUSD) Holding Key Support – short term buy This gold (XAUUSD) chart on the 15-minute timeframe shows an uptrend within a rising channel. The price is currently testing a key support zone around 2,906. If this support holds and the price doesn’t break below, a potential buying opportunity could emerge, targeting the 2,914–2,926 resistance zone. However, if the support fails, a deeper pullback toward lower levels may occur. Watch for price action signals at the support zone for confirmation.
#DXY 1DAYDXY (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price has broken below the uptrend support, signaling a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum. This breakdown indicates that buyers were unable to sustain the upward trend, leading to increased selling pressure. Additionally, a sell engulfing candlestick has formed, further confirming bearish sentiment.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is expected as the breakdown of uptrend support and the sell engulfing pattern suggest further downside movement.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: After a confirmed breakdown and possible retest of the broken support as resistance.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the broken support or recent swing high.
- Take Profit: Target lower support zones for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
The combination of the uptrend support breakdown and a sell engulfing pattern indicates that bearish momentum is increasing. Waiting for confirmation of continued selling pressure will help align with the prevailing market trend.
DXY Weekly BiasMy bias for this index is bearish considering that we retested and confirmed the Weekly Bearish Order Block at 109.65.
I do anticipate that the index might be attracted towards Sellside Liquidity at 107.27, 106.95 ,and 105.4.
Our daily setup will further give us the best entry and stop loss.
DXY (Dollar index) short from 108.800My DXY analysis aligns with the expectation of a bearish move, which suggests that my pairs—EU and GU—could push higher. However, before that, we may see a minor pullback as price moves toward a demand zone.
Price has recently broken structure to the upside, leaving behind a fresh demand level. Once price reaches this area, I anticipate accumulation before a potential move upward. I will look for opportunities to capitalize on this movement across the pairs I trade, such as Gold, EU, and GU.
The price action has been very clean so far, which is promising, and we can expect more of the same as we move further into Q1.
Have a great week ahead and remain vigilant!
A bullish DXY I think the dollar index TVC:DXY is gonna go higher coz of the recent price action. On the daily timeframe, we had a BOS and price created a swing failure as we couldn't close above the previous month's high. Price then retraced, took out internal range liquidity, tapped into a higher timeframe POI and reacted bullish (CISD). NFP triggered buy entries from the 4H OB, which rested below the pdl. Besides, the unemployment rate data indicates strengthening of the dollar as the rates have decreased from 4.3% to 4.0% in the past 6 months. I am confident jobs are increasing in the United States and unemployment rates will decrease
DXY on high time frameDescription:
"Regarding DXY, as I mentioned on recent analysis , the price has reached the (FVG) on the monthly chart and is displaying signs of rejection. On the daily timeframe, candle formations indicate bearish momentum."
If you have any specific questions or if there are particular aspects you would like me to focus on, feel free to let me know!
$DXY MMSMGiven the current scenario, we maintain a bias toward the continuation of the DXY's decline, as it exhibits MMSM characteristics. Additionally, bonds have invalidated a bearish FVG on the daily timeframe after holding at a bullish PDA in discount. However, caution is essential, as we cannot ignore President Trump's statements, which are shaking the market and completely disrupting our bias
$EURUSD relative strength and the $DXY index Today we are dipping into the currency markets where we are plotting the FX:EURUSD and the TVC:DXY index in the same chart. Even if the TVC:DXY is making a local top @ 108 but the FX:EURUSD is not breaking below the 0.236 Fib retrenchment level. FX:EURUSD has shown great resilience every step of the way recently. This might indicate a local bottom on $EURUSD. If FX:EURUSD bounces back from the 0.236 fib retracement level watch out for the next 0.382 Fib level when the FX:EURUSD hits 1.062. The TVC:DXY is failing to make a new top on the weekly chart. So, with ECONOMICS:USM2 increasing and the supply of USD increasing in the market there might be some weakness in USD in the weeks to come. And if TVC:DXY tops out here and fails then FX:EURUSD will show some bullish trends because 60% of the TVC:DXY index is still in EUR.
Surging Dollar Spurs Jump in Corporate FX HedgingThe relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is sending ripples of concern through the global economy, and businesses are taking notice. Faced with a strengthening greenback, corporations are increasingly turning to foreign exchange (FX) hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on their bottom lines. This surge in hedging activity reflects a growing awareness of the risks associated with currency volatility and a proactive approach to protecting profits in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
The Dollar's Dominance
The U.S. dollar has been on a tear, appreciating significantly against a basket of other major currencies. This surge is driven by a confluence of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and the relative strength of the U.S. economy. While a strong dollar can have some benefits, such as lower import costs, it also poses significant challenges for multinational corporations.1
Impact on Corporate Earnings
For companies that generate revenue in foreign currencies but report earnings in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar can create a significant headwind. When foreign revenues are converted back into dollars, they are worth less than they were before the dollar's appreciation. This can lead to lower reported earnings, even if the company's underlying business performance remains strong. Conversely, companies that import goods priced in dollars but sell them in other currencies see their profit margins squeezed as their input costs rise.
The Hedging Imperative
In this environment of heightened currency risk, FX hedging has become a crucial tool for corporations.2 Hedging involves using financial instruments, such as forward contracts, options, or swaps, to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.3 This allows companies to insulate themselves from adverse currency movements and provides greater certainty about their future cash flows and earnings.4
Surge in Hedging Activity
Market data suggests a significant uptick in corporate FX hedging activity. Treasurers and finance departments are increasingly prioritizing currency risk management, recognizing that even small fluctuations in exchange rates can have a material impact on their financial results. This increased focus on hedging is driven by several factors:
• Heightened Volatility: The dollar's rapid appreciation has created significant volatility in currency markets, making it more difficult for companies to predict future exchange rates. This uncertainty underscores the need for hedging strategies to protect against unexpected currency swings.
• Earnings Protection: As mentioned earlier, a strong dollar can erode corporate earnings. Hedging allows companies to mitigate this risk and ensure that their financial performance is not unduly impacted by currency fluctuations.5
• Strategic Planning: Hedging provides greater predictability in cash flows, which is essential for strategic planning and investment decisions.6 By locking in exchange rates, companies can make more informed decisions about future investments and expansion plans.7
• Shareholder Expectations: Investors are increasingly scrutinizing companies' currency risk management practices. Companies that proactively hedge against currency risks are often seen as more prudent and better managed, which can be a positive factor for investor confidence.
Types of Hedging Strategies
Companies employ a variety of hedging strategies depending on their specific needs and risk tolerance.8 Some common approaches include:
• Forward Contracts: These contracts obligate a company to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date.9 This is a straightforward way to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.
• Options: Currency options give a company the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price on or before a certain date.10 Options provide flexibility and allow companies to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting their downside risk.11
• Currency Swaps: These agreements involve exchanging principal and/or interest payments in one currency for those in another currency.12 Swaps can be used to manage currency risk associated with long-term debt or investments.13
Challenges and Considerations
While hedging can be an effective way to manage currency risk, it's not without its challenges. Hedging strategies can be complex and require specialized expertise. Furthermore, hedging involves costs, such as premiums paid for options or fees for forward contracts.14 Companies need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of hedging and choose strategies that are appropriate for their specific circumstances.
Looking Ahead
The strong dollar is likely to remain a significant factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. As such, corporate FX hedging is expected to remain a priority for multinational companies. Companies that proactively manage their currency risk are better positioned to navigate the challenges of a strong dollar environment and protect their earnings from adverse currency movements.15 The current surge in hedging activity reflects a growing recognition of this reality and a proactive approach to mitigating currency risk in an increasingly interconnected world. As global economic conditions evolve, companies will need to remain vigilant and adapt their hedging strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately protected from currency volatility.
Could the price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 107.14
1st Support: 106.57
1st Resistance: 108.11
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DXY on the verge of a bearish reversal - The Trump EffectDXY has finally started to give bearish indications from HTF monthly supply and i think history is likely to repeat itself here, similar to trumps last term, where he wanted to weaken the dollar and is wanting to do the same again this term! With this in mind, the technicals are also aligning with this thesis as DXY looks more and more topped out as it hits crucial key levels and supply, giving breakdowns from the daily timeframes.
Its gave a 1,2 and 3 day bearish MS, confirming the monthly supply with this bearish breakdown. From here I want to see continued downside momentum into a weekly bearish MS as marked up on the chart with a body close below this level to really give HTF confirmation of this HTF reversal from supply, leading to a full bearish reversal in DXY and a changed macro outlook as EU, GU, AU all flip bullish on their HTF, fuelling a continued bullish phase in BTC as DXY breaks down with their inverse correlation they hold.
Id expect to see DXY target the SSL on the HTF range lows and come into HTF 6 month and 1 year demand ranges below this to act as key HTF reversal levels in the future. If we see the 1 weak bearish structure flip in DXY from here, its likely we start a new HTF downtrend in DXY for the foreseeable until it hits the SSL on the range lows as a minimum, which will result in a positive outlook for crypto.
Trump has also publicly stated he wants to weaken the dollar and did so in his last term too, where the dollar pulled a HTF bearish reversal putting in the high and starting a bear trend for the following 400 days after his entrance to office as you can see on the chart. This only supports the HTF bearish reversal and thesis here and what im seeing on the charts!
Weakening of the dollar results in many benefits to the USA and global economy:
Trump's push for a weaker dollar boosts U.S. exports, reduces the trade deficit, and makes debt easier to manage by inflating it away. It also drives stock market growth and attracts foreign investment into U.S. assets. However, it risks higher inflation and weaker purchasing power.
For crypto, a weaker dollar is typically bullish—investors seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency devaluation. A falling USD also fuels liquidity into risk assets, driving higher speculation in crypto markets. If Trump weakens the dollar aggressively, BTC and alts could see significant upside.
DXY US Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 108.500 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 106.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY US Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
🟦Fundamental Analysis:
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been under pressure due to the contraction in JOLTS job openings, indicating a tightening job market
- The Federal Reserve's monetary policies, geopolitical stability, and global acceptance of the dollar as a reserve currency contribute to the dollar's strength
- A strong economy with high productivity, low unemployment, and stable inflation provides a foundation for strengthening the dollar's position
🟫Macro Analysis:
- The US economy is expected to remain strong, with low unemployment and stable inflation, supporting the dollar's value
- Global trade tensions and geopolitical instability may impact the dollar's value, but its status as a reserve currency provides stability
- Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve will influence the dollar's value, with potential rate cuts impacting its strength
🟪Sentimental Analysis:
- 60% of client accounts on IG are long on the US Dollar Index, indicating a bullish sentiment
- However, the recent contraction in JOLTS job openings and potential Fed rate cuts may lead to a bearish sentiment
🟧COT Analysis:
- The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that speculators are net long on the US Dollar Index, indicating a bullish sentiment
- However, the report also shows that commercial traders are net short, indicating a potential bearish sentiment
🟨Positioning:
- Corporate traders may consider hedging their exposure to the US Dollar Index due to potential volatility
- Investor and hedge fund traders may consider going long on the US Dollar Index due to its potential strength, but should be cautious of potential rate cuts and geopolitical instability
- Institutional traders may consider diversifying their portfolios to minimize exposure to the US Dollar Index
- Retail traders should exercise caution when trading the US Dollar Index due to its potential volatility and should consider using proper risk management strategies
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The Stablecoin Revolution: Is the Dollar's Reign Over?
The Future of the Global Cryptocurrency Market: Navigating the Rise of Stablecoins and the Shifting Sands of Global Finance
The cryptocurrency market has exploded in popularity over the past decade, evolving from a niche interest to a global phenomenon. While Bitcoin remains the dominant player, the landscape is rapidly diversifying, with stablecoins like USDC and Tether playing an increasingly crucial role. This article explores the future of the global cryptocurrency market, examining the growing influence of stablecoins and their potential impact on the traditional financial system, particularly in relation to the US dollar and the DXY index.
The Rise of Stablecoins: Bridging the Gap Between Crypto and Fiat
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to a fiat currency like the US dollar. This stability makes them attractive for everyday transactions and as a safe haven within the volatile crypto market. USDC and Tether are the two largest stablecoins, with market capitalizations in the tens of billions of dollars.
The appeal of stablecoins lies in their ability to combine the benefits of cryptocurrencies – such as speed, low transaction costs, and 24/7 availability – with the stability of traditional currencies. This makes them ideal for a variety of use cases, including:
• Remittances: Sending money across borders using stablecoins can be faster and cheaper than traditional methods.
• Payments: Stablecoins can be used for everyday purchases, both online and in physical stores.
• Trading: Stablecoins provide a stable asset for traders to use when navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market.
• Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Stablecoins are a key component of DeFi protocols, where they are used for lending, borrowing, and trading.
The Impact on the US Dollar and the DXY Index
The growing adoption of stablecoins has raised questions about their potential impact on the US dollar and the DXY index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies. Some analysts believe that the widespread use of stablecoins could weaken the dollar's dominance in global trade and finance.
However, it's important to note that most stablecoins are currently pegged to the US dollar. This means that their value is directly tied to the dollar's performance. As a result, the rise of stablecoins could actually strengthen the dollar's position in the short term.
In the long run, the impact of stablecoins on the dollar will depend on several factors, including:
• Regulation: Governments around the world are beginning to pay close attention to stablecoins. The regulatory frameworks that are developed will play a significant role in shaping the future of these digital assets.
• Adoption: The widespread adoption of stablecoins will be a key factor in determining their impact on the dollar. If stablecoins become a major force in global finance, they could challenge the dollar's dominance.
• Competition: The emergence of other stablecoins pegged to different currencies, or even central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), could reduce the reliance on dollar-pegged stablecoins.
Opportunities and Challenges in the Cryptocurrency Market
The future of the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities and challenges. The continued growth of stablecoins is likely to play a significant role in shaping this future. Other key trends to watch include:
• Institutional adoption: More and more institutional investors are entering the cryptocurrency market. This is bringing increased legitimacy and liquidity to the market.
• Technological innovation: The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, with new technologies and applications being developed all the time. This innovation is driving the growth of the market.
• Regulatory clarity: As governments around the world develop clearer regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies, this will help to reduce uncertainty and encourage further adoption.
However, there are also challenges that the cryptocurrency market must overcome, including:
• Volatility: The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, which can make it risky for investors.
• Security: There have been a number of high-profile hacks and scams in the cryptocurrency market, which have raised concerns about security.
• Environmental concerns: The energy consumption of some cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, has raised concerns about their environmental impact.
Conclusion
The future of the global cryptocurrency market is bright, with stablecoins playing an increasingly important role. While the impact on the US dollar and the DXY index remains to be seen, it's clear that stablecoins are changing the landscape of global finance. As the market continues to evolve, it will be important to keep an eye on the latest developments and to be aware of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.