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USD Holds Near 5-Month Low on US Inflation ConcernsIn a fragile holiday trading session on Tuesday, the US Dollar Index remained at 101.6, hovering close to its lowest point in five months. This comes as additional signs of declining US inflation reinforce bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts next year. Published data on Friday revealed that the core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, dropped to 3.2% in November from October's 3.4%, below the anticipated 3.3%. Moreover, Thursday's figures showed weaker-than-expected economic growth in the US for Q3, along with a slight increase in unemployment benefit claims in the recent period. The US dollar trades near multi-month lows against major currencies, facing the risk of further depreciation compared to the yen. This concern amplifies as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Monday that the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target is "gradually increasing."
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 101.800 down to 100.800The outlook for the Dollar this week is a continuation of its bearish trajectory. With a recent downside break in structure, I anticipate a correction, expecting the price to retrace into the 14-hour supply zone. Upon entering my Point of Interest (POI), I'll wait for price distribution and a change in character as a signal that the dollar is prepared for a decline. Additionally, I acknowledge the presence of imbalances above the supply, suggesting the potential for a break beyond this supply into a more premium area. Confluences for Dollar Sells are as follows: - This bias aligns with the current bearish trend that has been perpetuated. - Lots of major trend lines, equal lows and asian lows below on the higher time frame. - There's a14hr supply zone that has broken structure to the downside causing BOS. - For price to maintain its bearish trend it must react off a supply to trigger another sell off. P.S. While the dollar maintains an overall bullish stance on the higher time frame, it's only a matter of time before price sweeps liquidity and reacts strongly to a major supply. However, given the current bearish movement, It's advisable to follow the existing trend instead of opposing it for the time being. If you guys have any interesting perspectives on this market, feel free to share down below!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
🗺️DXY Index Roadmap🗺️🏃‍♂️The DXY index has been moving in the Descending Channel for over two months . 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , the DXY Index is near the end of the main wave 5 . 🌊If we want to look at the microwaves of the main wave 5 in the 1-hour time frame , we will find that the DXY index is on the way to completing the microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect the DXY Index to start rising after touching the 🟢 Support zone($101.30-$100.80) 🟢, Support lines , and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and complete the main wave 5. The increase of the DXY index can fill the upper 🔵 GAP 🔵 and attack the upper line of the descending channel. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
8
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 103.300 down towards 101.500My bias for the dollar this week remains bearish, leading me to seek pro-trend trades from any proximate valid supply zones. With the recent reaction from my prior 3-hour demand, I anticipate the price to continue its ascent to address the imbalances above. Subsequently, my expectation is for the price to undergo distribution within a supply zone identified on the 14-hour chart, providing opportunities for selling positions on the way down. While acknowledging the possibility that the price may not ascend as high and instead continues to drop, I am prepared to wait for a new demand zone to seize potential buy opportunities in such a scenario. Confluences for DXY Shorts are as follows: - Price broke structure to the downside on the HTF, confirming a bearish bias. - There's lots of liquidity left below in the form of trend line liquidity and asian lows. - There's a clean 14hr supply zone that has caused the impulsive move to the downside in which I expect price to react from next. - Since there are imbalances beneath the supply, it's probable that once the price addresses them, a bearish reaction will ensue from the supply. P.S. My bearish stance on the dollar persists, prompted by the recent structural break observed on the higher time frame (HTF). This strengthens my inclination toward bearish positions, making me more inclined towards considering long positions for pairs like GBPUSD and EURUSD. If you guys have another take on this market I would love for you guys to leave a comment!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
3
DXY # 003 ( END with US Dollar Market domination ) Hello dear traders . Good days. On Monthly Bullish Gann Square : 1- DXY twice rejections from Last Gann Arc resistance . 2- Broken Monthly Gann Square Fan trend line 3- Twice Rejections from Monthly Gann Fan line 4- reversal Time Zone passed . In simple words it shows DXY is bearish up to the reversal time Zone. Chart & Road map is plotted with help of Gann Square and Gann Box. Good luck and safe trades. Thanks for your support and comments.
TVC:DXYShort
by SHAlavi
DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis. Bullish inverse H&S identified on lower timeframe charts, pending breakout confirmation. Trading scenarios into EOY: Inverse H&S breakout = extrapolated move into 23.6% Fib / ~106 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Breakout failure = re-test 50% Fib aka "Right Shoulder". Further bearish capitulation = re-test lower range of ascending parallel channel (white) / Golden Pocket confluence zone. Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
TVC:DXY
by BlueHatInvestor
Integrated Analytics 💲 Unveil Dollar TrendsIntegrated Analytics 💲 Unveil Dollar Trends Dear Respected Members, Speculators, and Traders, My AI's advanced pattern recognition detected the green rising channel chart pattern, concealing a potential bearish retracement signaled by the bearish MACD and negative RSI with a bearish cross below. Ensembling predicts a retracement to 103.78, the channel's support. Multiple scenarios may unfold, with DXY rallying to the 104.27 resistance or continuing a bearish trend if the support breaks. News Trading Strategies, aided by AI's Neural Language Processing bots, align with recent reports: Dollar weakens as Fed rate cut view weighs: DXY fell 0.2% to 103.20, anticipating a monthly loss exceeding 3%, attributed to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crack in US dollar strength to spread as economy slows: FX strategists foresee continued dollar weakening amid a slowing US economy, reflecting global concerns (Reuters, Nov 8, 2023). U.S. Dollar Index weakens post 20-year high: A decline of over 8% from its September peak is attributed to factors like a stronger euro and a sluggish US economy (Axios, Dec 9, 2023). These align with sentiment analytics (DSI/DSIE), emphasizing a holistic approach merging AI with news and sentiment tools for enhanced insights. Disclaimer: Not investment advice; analytics for entertainment. Keep speculation separate from investments. Best regards, Ely
TVC:DXYShort
by Elysian_Mind
🔥 DXY INDEX bearish analysis) 1D tame Fram 🖼️) 🕐🕐hello traders what do you think about dxy index)? guys dxy index. Breakdecline Support level that a retest Rsl 105.000 breakdance to confirm selling pressure down. Support level 104.300 Gold poised for first weekly drop in four before US jobs data Dec 8, 202315:23 GMT+5 KEY POINTS: Gold down 1.5%, silver loses over 6.6% this week U.S. dollar on track to snap three straight weeks of losses U.S. non-farm payrolls data due at 1330 GMT Gold prices were flat on Friday, as markets looked forward to the crucial U.S. jobs data for more clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, although a firmer dollar kept bullion on track for its first weekly fall in four. Spot gold GOLD was steady at $2,027.39 per ounce by 0951 GMT. Bullion, however, has fallen nearly 1.5% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures GOLD were flat at $2,043.70. Bullion scaled an all-time peak of $2,135.40 on Monday on elevated bets for a rate cut by the Fed, before dropping more than $100 on uncertainty over the cut's timing. "Traders are expecting to get a clear idea on how the Fed is going to change their policy decisions in the coming meeting - so today's jobs data would be the primary key," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services. "Major crash in gold is not the immediate trend because most of the parameters are favouring prices and the Fed policy would be the key trigger that can guide medium to long term direction of gold prices" The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November is due at 1330 GMT. It is expected to show that employers added 180,000 jobs last month. (USNFAR=ECI) The dollar index DXY , meanwhile, was up 0.2% and set to snap a three-week losing streak, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a U.S. rate cut as soon as March, CME's FedWatch Tool showed. Lower interest rates boost the appeal of holding gold. Spot silver XAGUSD1! lost 0.2% to $23.73 per ounce, while platinum PL1! gained 1.3% to $918.84. Both were set for weekly declines. "Palladium's long-term bear market looks set to continue, with prices likely to halve again over the next 2-3 years," Citi Research said in a note. Palladium XPDUSD1! rose 0.6% to $975.81, but was set to log a second weekly loss.
TVC:DXYLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDX: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-US CPIToday's focus: USDX Pattern – LH Resistance push Support – 102.45 Resistance – 104.12 - 104.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today's video asks if USDX will continue to remain below resistance and possibly break lower if today's CPI data comes in lower than expected. We are mainly focused on the resistance areas and the current LH that has formed around the supply and resistance areas discussed in our video update. We have also noted some bullish price action; if CPI rises to the upside, this could set up a new continuation higher. But for now, as noted in today's video, we will continue to look at the resistance holds and the current trend of CPI declines on the y/y. US CPI data is due on Wednesday at 8:30 am EST or 12:30 pm AEDT. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
DXY and 14 Levels: Understanding the Currency Pair's TargetsWhile Himino's speech is a crucial assumption for monetary policy and the longstanding dilemma regarding wages and prices, his journey is a speculative adventure on how the concept of Wages/Prices can depart from what he calls a frozen state. Next are deeper insights into how Himino perceives and examines wages and prices in relation to Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. Himino then guides us through four stages of development, covering price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Remarkably, as BOJ has demonstrated since 2016, Himino dismisses the Wages/Prices concept in stage 1, where uncontrollable prices arise from the West through imported inflation and market changes in oil prices. How to control imported inflation and oil prices without imposing an advanced concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. As Himino points out in some cases, the complexity of Wages, Prices, and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino states that if the concept of wages/prices is satisfied, questions about monetary easing must be reconsidered. Whether intentionally or not, Himino throws USD/JPY and cross-currency pairs into the mix. A worrisome aspect of Himino's speech is how a speculative speech turns into psychological reports on negative interest rates, ultimately BOJ's most important December policy, the end of monetary easing. Currency analysts and outspoken figures on leading websites in our era reveal that they can no longer fix it. Stage 1: Businesses reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2: Businesses reflect a higher overall price in wages. Stage 3: Businesses reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4: Business price policies become more diverse, enabling them to explore strategies for selling more attractive products and services with corresponding prices rather than just good products and services at low prices.
TVC:DXY
by Gwen_Humuna
Himino's Speech: A Deep Dive into Currency Pairs and Targets In a significant monetary policy speech, Himino introduced pivotal assumptions for wages, prices, and the prolonged dual downturn. The narrative explored how the concept of Wages/Prices might depart from what he termed a frozen state. Himino delved deeper into understanding and reviewing wages and prices concerning Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. He guided us through four developmental stages involving price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Notably, in stage 1, Himino acknowledged the complexity of controlling imported inflation and oil prices without imposing a progressive concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. Throughout the speech, Himino asserted that if the Wages/Prices concept is met, questions about monetary easing must be reexamined. Interestingly, Himino tactfully connected his speech to the USD/JPY movement and cross-currency pairs. A notable aspect of Himino's speech is how speculative remarks turned into psychological reports on the last meeting of BOJ in December, highlighting the importance of the new monetary policy and the cessation of easing. Financial analysts and opinion leaders expressed their inability to repair the situation. Himino outlined four stages: businesses reflecting higher import prices, businesses reflecting higher overall prices on wages, businesses reflecting higher labor costs in prices, and diversified price policies allowing businesses to explore strategies attractive in value instead of just focusing on low-priced goods and services. In summary, Himino's speech touched on crucial economic concepts and their implications, sparking discussions on the future of Japan's monetary policy and its impact on currency pairs.
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
1
DXY (Dollar index) Shorts down to 102.500While the overall trend for the dollar remains bullish, recent weeks have witnessed a notable increase in downward movement. This suggests a potential continuation of the bearish patterns, prompting me to seek pro-trend trades aligned with this recent bias. Notably, with the price already having mitigated a supply zone, an anticipated drop towards the target of 102.500 seems likely. The formation of Wyckoff accumulation signals a possible breakdown to surpass Asian lows. Additionally, considering that the price has left a demand zone at the projected target, we can expect a potential reaction in this zone. This reaction could potentially lead to the creation of new highs and a temporary bullish trend. Confluences for DXY Sells are as follows: - Dollar has tapped into a 17hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - Theres liquidity to the downside in the form of Asian low and trendline liquidity. - Recent trend for this market has been temporarily bearish so this is a pro trend trade. - If price wants to continue going higher, there are unmitigated demand zones that price needs to come and fill. P.S Although the price has established a new bearish trend, it's possible that this is a strategic move to eliminate the trendline liquidity lingering from previous bullish rallies. Given the overall bullish sentiment on the higher time frame, it wouldn't be unexpected to witness the dollar initiating a new trend to achieve fresh highs.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY- Bearish under 104.20After making a low just under 100 mark in mid-July, TVC:DXY started a nice up trend and rose more than 7% in the next 2 months and reached a high of 107.20 at the beginning of October. The attempts for a new local high failed and, at the beginning of November the index has started to fall, recently making a low at 102.50. December's recovery is contained in a bearish continuation flag which was broken to the downside at this moment. My outlook for the index is bearish and a new wave of selling is the most probable scenario in its case. A daily close above 104.20, on the other hand, will put bulls in control and will change my outlook.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mihai_Iacob
DOLLAR INDEX FORECASTHigh speculation on upside, idea are 2, not quite fan on below, remember the fed not yet full blown the 2% inflation target, expect 1st Q of the year would be another rate hikes. Skip what they are saying they will not tell it until its done. This is only view on dollar index. Wether we go higher next year or we go lower or they just wait for the US elections to rate again, Trade at your own risk. This is not a financial advice. Follow for more higher context ideas.
TVC:DXY
by D1GITALTRADES
DXY Index is Ready to Break the 🔴Resistance zones🔴✅It seems that the DXY Index finally managed to break the Descending Channel that it was in for more than one month . 💡I expect the DXY Index to take the help of the Uptrend line to break the Resistance zone ahead and it can break the minimum 🔴 Resistance zone($104.20-$103.98) 🔴. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
18