Get started

Dxyindex

DXY "Dollar Index" Market Bullish Heist Plan (Day or Swing)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY "Dollar Index" Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Line. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (99.900) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (98.900) Day / Swing trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 101.400 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💰💵💸DXY "Dollar Index" Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
TVC:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
Analysis of gold short-term operation ideasGold price is currently trading below 3330. The downward trend in Asian session broke through the 3315 position in the morning. Our short position also successfully harvested a wave of big profits. Gold price showed signs of rebound in early European session. Now the upper pressure level can be moved down. The short-term pressure level is 3318, followed by the second highest point on the way up at 3357. The lower support level focuses on 3285. After effectively breaking through, we can focus on 3245. Now gold price is trading near the early low of 3315. The prudent operation idea is to go short at 3320 for protection at 3331 and wait for the gold price to reach 3285. After the break, wait for the rebound to 3300 and go short again to see the position of 3245. Long positions are not recommended.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1
Gold 3500 mark is about to openThe gold market opened at 3331.4 yesterday morning, then fell back slightly to 3328.6, then strongly fluctuated and pulled up, breaking through the previous week's high of 3358 and the pressure of 3387 and the 3400 integer mark, and then reached the highest position of 3430.8, and then the market consolidated. The weekly line finally closed at 3424.8, and the market closed with a basically saturated big positive line. After this pattern ended, today's market still has bullish demand driven by risk aversion and bullish sentiment, with the target at 3465, and the break at 3480 and 3500
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
1
Elliott Wave Principles: A Study on US Dollar IndexHello friends, today we'll attempt to analyze the (DXY) US Dollar Index chart using Elliott Wave theory. Let's explore the possible Elliott Wave counts with wave Principles (Rules). We've used the daily time frame chart here, which suggests that the primary cycle degree in Black weekly wave ((A)) and ((B)) waves have already occurred. Currently, wave ((C)) is in progress. Within wave ((C)) in Black which are Weekly counts, Subdivisions are on daily time frame, showing Intermediate degree in blue wave (1) & (2) are finished and (3) is near to completion. Post wave (3), we can expect wave (4) up in Blue and then wave (5) down in Blue, marking the end of wave ((C)) in Black. Additionally, within blue wave (3) Intermediate degree, we should see 5 subdivisions in red of Minor degree, which is clearly showing that waves 1 & 2 are done and now we are near to completion of wave 3 in Red. followed by waves 4 and 5, which will complete blue wave (3). Key Points to Learn: When applying Elliott Wave theory, it's essential to follow specific rules and principles. Here are three crucial ones: 1. Wave 2 Retracement Rule: Wave two will never retrace more than 100% of wave one. 2. Wave 3 Length Rule: Wave three will never be the shortest among waves 1, 3, and 5. It may be the largest most of the time, but never the shortest. 3. Wave 4 Overlap Rule: Wave four will never enter into the territory of wave one, meaning wave four will not overlap wave one, except in cases of diagonals or triangles. Invalidation level is a level which is decided based on these Elliott wave Principles only, Once its triggered, then counts are Invalidated so we have to reassess the chart study and other possible counts are to be plotted The entire wave count is clearly visible on the chart, and this is just one possible scenario. Please note that Elliott Wave theory involves multiple possibilities and uncertainties. The analysis we've presented focuses on one particular scenario that seems potentially possible. However, it's essential to keep in mind that Elliott Wave counts can have multiple possibilities. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
TVC:DXYEducation
by RK_Chaarts
Interpretation of gold US market operation ideas! ! !Gold continued to be bullish in the morning, and the 3400 mark has been broken. How will it evolve next? The US dollar index directly fell on Monday morning, and the US Y index fell by more than 8% this year, causing gold to rise in a variable. The rise in gold caused by this situation will be greatly adjusted due to the recovery of the US dollar! The key to winning or losing tonight lies between 20 and 22 o'clock. If the US stock market opens, it will fall below the 98 mark due to the southward movement of the US dollar, creating a new low since April 2022! The market's trust in the US dollar as a global reserve currency has declined! The possibility of turning to other safe-haven assets has increased, thereby increasing the variable of gold rising. If based on this logic, tonight's 20-23 o'clock cycle is the main winning or losing day of this week! Hypothetical principle: If it is postponed to the north during the day, everyone should pay attention to the selling pressure near 3415. As the price changes, the selling pressure is more likely to occur! And the defense line will rise in each round of corrective retracement! Short-term defense line: 3355-3370-3383-3392 Pressure level above: 3430-3458 Risk notice: 1. When everyone is paying attention, long positions may fall at any time, and the range will not be less than 50-80 points! 2. The decline of the US dollar index will lead to a collapse in futures, which will trigger a chain reaction. Traders will face the possibility of gold settlement to fill the gap in other markets!
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
1
Gold is hard to break through 4000, short sellers are coming Gold prices rose strongly in the Asian session on Monday, approaching the historical high of $3,400 per ounce, as concerns about the global trade situation intensified and the dollar fell to a two-year low due to concerns about economic recession. Despite the overbought signal on the technical side, the market's expectations of the Fed's rate cut and trade concerns continue to attract safe-haven funds to flow into the gold market. Technical side: Gold opened higher on Monday and has now risen from 3330 to 3394, with a range of $65. At present, gold indicators are expected to be severely overbought and a large correction may be needed at any time. In addition, the main force continues to push up gold to prevent the main force from fleeing. Gold is mainly shorted at highs below the 3400 mark! SELL: 3394 Stop loss 3405 TP1: 3375 TP2: 3360
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1
Bearish sentiment on the USD index (DXY)TVC:DXY On this trading week (April 14-18), we have not seen much volatility in the USD index, with its highest trading point at approximately 100.3 and lowest 99.2, partly due to a long bank holiday for Good Friday and Easter on the following Monday. On last week's Friday, price briefly tapped into the weekly demand zone and gave a quick reaction upwards to the 4-hour supply zone, which then quickly rejected and cooled price back down. Currently, price is still sitting at the lower point of the weekly range, we can expect DXY to have a very short-term push back to this strong 4-hour swap zone above, possibly creating a higher high, before pushing it back down. Price is very likely to take out the weekly lows and continue to push towards the bottom of the weekly demand zone. On fundamentals, Bank of America's analysts had identified close relationship of its depreciating USD, with its falling US asset and equities values. Economic activities have also declined due to trade wars and huge uncertainty of the upcoming policy changes by the Trump administration; asset managers and central banks may also continue to sell USD. Besides, the US is very likely to continue reducing its interest rates in order to boost its economic activity. One of the reasons why Trump imposed high tariffs into many countries was to reduce international dependency on the manufacturing sector and trade deficits, and to attract foreign investments to set up factories in the US, in order to sell to consumers at the 'good price'. However, it is still very controversial on how effective it is, business owners abroad may perceive Trump's policies as bipolar, which changes depending on his mood, therefore, majority of businesses would rather partner elsewhere than to put themselves through this hassle. USD has also dropped 10% since the start of 2025 and has reached its lowest in three years. References: www.investing.com www.cbsnews.com
TVC:DXYShort
by CandleCipher
DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong.... Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower. What a difference 2 months can make! Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring. CAUTION is in order!! Target not reached! Forced on me. As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen. As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression! WARNING!
TVC:DXYShort
by RealMacro
4
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!) Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar. 1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world. 2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper. 3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s. 4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect. 5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified. 6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar. Techanically how high can the USD go? -120 is likely. (hopefully not much more) -Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE! - What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER! We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows. For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
TVC:DXYLong
by RealMacro
2
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY / Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 💰💸💵DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets..., go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY / Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (104.550) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (103.800) Day trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 105.400 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world. - Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..) - When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength. - When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up. - it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine". - i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience. - actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes. - So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things : - You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend. - So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? ) - MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol. - i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe. - So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index) - ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. - In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. - So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way. - First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns. - Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish. - So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later. - it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders. Happy Tr4Ding !
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by thecryer
5
The DXY shows a downward tendency.In the long run, the implementation of tariffs will prompt trading partners to take countermeasures 😡, resulting in a contraction of the global trade scale 😔. American enterprises will face higher import costs for raw materials, and their export markets will be restricted, thus curbing the economic growth of the United States 😩. This will put depreciation pressure on the US dollar, causing the DXY to decline 📉. U.S. Tariff Policies Since April 9th, the United States has levied tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions. These tariffs cover crucial sectors like automobiles, steel, and semiconductors 😒. Countermeasures of Various Countries China: On April 4th, China declared that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. Then, on April 9th, the tariff rate was further hiked to 84%, applying to all U.S. goods 😠. The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods as of May 16th 😤. Canada: On April 9th, imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles, while exempting auto parts 😏. 💰💰💰 DXY 💰💰💰 🎯 Sell@ 100 - 101 🎯 TP 98 - 97 Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗 👇The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 👉
TVC:DXYShort
by PearlMichael
The impact of tariffs on the DXYIn the long term, the imposition of tariffs will trigger countermeasures from trading partners 😡, leading to a shrinkage of the global trade scale 😔. The import costs of raw materials for American enterprises will rise, and their export markets will be restricted, which will curb the economic growth of the United States 😩. This will exert depreciation pressure on the US dollar, causing the DXY to decline 📉. U.S. Tariff Policies Since April 9th, the United States has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions, covering key sectors such as automobiles, steel, and semiconductors.😒 Countermeasures of Various Countries China: On April 4th, China announced that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. On April 9th, the tariff rate was further increased to 84%, covering all U.S. goods.😠 The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods starting from May 16th.😤 Canada: Imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles on April 9th, but exempted auto parts.😏 This upward movement has led to the clearing of many traders' accounts or significant losses 😫. You can follow my signals and gradually recover your losses and achieve profitability 🌟. 💰💰💰 DXY 💰💰💰 🎯 Sell@103 - 100 🎯 TP 96 - 94 Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
TVC:DXYShort
by PearlMichael
$DXY to 100 and heading lower, bullish for $EURUSDTVC:DXY the dollar index, was the primary driver of the equity bear market in 2022. With TVC:DXY hitting a 5 year high of 114 marked the bottom in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. The recent strength in TVC:DXY was out of stock with TVC:DXY and Stock markets rising at the same time and dropping when the TVC:DXY is falling. Usually, the risk assets have an inverse correlation to the US Dollar index. These periods in history are unusual and are marked by some kind of macro events like recession etc. With tariffs discussion everywhere that might not be unrealistic to expect some kind of recession. In that case where is the TVC:DXY headed? Currently the TVC:DXY is at a psychological level of 100. Once it breaks below 100 the next stop might be 95. If we see some kind of soft recession which is my worst-case scenario then we might see the lows of 90 in $DXY. If TVC:DXY goes down by 10% or lower than we can expect to the FX:EURUSD to go back to its recent high of 1.23. Verdict: Short TVC:DXY ; Long FX:EURUSD , AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ
TVC:DXYLong
by RabishankarBiswal
Gold & Silver Soar: Trade War RallyAnatomy of a Rally: How US-China Trade Tensions Propelled Gold to Record Highs and Lifted Silver Introduction The global financial landscape is frequently reshaped by geopolitical events, and few have cast as long a shadow in recent memory as the trade tensions between the United States and China. During periods of heightened friction, characterized by escalating tariffs, retaliatory measures, and pervasive economic uncertainty, markets often witness significant shifts in asset allocation. One of the most prominent beneficiaries during such times is gold. This document explores the dynamics behind gold prices reaching record highs amidst a US-China trade war, examining the multifaceted reasons for its ascent and noting the concurrent, significant rise in silver prices, which often move in tandem with the yellow metal due to overlapping market drivers. The US-China Trade War: A Catalyst for Uncertainty The trade conflict between the world's two largest economies represents more than just a dispute over tariffs and trade balances. It embodies a fundamental clash over technology, intellectual property, global influence, and differing economic models. The imposition of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods creates direct economic consequences: 1. Increased Costs: Businesses face higher import costs, which can be absorbed (reducing profits), passed onto consumers (potentially fueling inflation), or lead to shifts in supply chains (causing disruption and inefficiency). 2. Reduced Trade Flows: Tariffs act as barriers, potentially dampening global trade volumes and impacting export-oriented economies. 3. Economic Growth Concerns: The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies makes businesses hesitant to invest and expand, potentially leading to slower global economic growth or even recessionary fears. 4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Companies reliant on cross-border supply chains face significant operational challenges, needing to find alternative suppliers or routes, often at higher costs and lower efficiency. 5. Currency Volatility: Trade disputes can lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly involving the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, adding another layer of risk for international businesses and investors. This pervasive uncertainty becomes a powerful driver pushing investors towards assets perceived as safe. Gold: The Quintessential Safe Haven Gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset is deeply ingrained in financial history. During times of economic stress, political instability, or market turmoil, investors flock to gold for several key reasons, all amplified by a US-China trade war: 1. Store of Value: Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued by inflation or government policy, gold is seen as retaining its intrinsic value over the long term. Fears that trade wars could lead to competitive currency devaluations or necessitate inflationary monetary policies (like extensive quantitative easing) make gold particularly attractive. 2. Hedging Against Uncertainty: When the outlook for traditional assets like stocks and bonds becomes cloudy due to geopolitical risks like a trade war, gold offers a perceived refuge. Its price often exhibits a low or negative correlation to equity markets during downturns, making it valuable for portfolio diversification. 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Major international conflicts or tensions invariably add a risk premium to gold prices. A trade war between global superpowers significantly elevates perceived geopolitical risk, prompting safe-haven buying. 4. Weakening US Dollar Potential: While the US dollar itself can act as a safe haven, a protracted trade war could raise questions about the US economic outlook or lead to policies aimed at weakening the dollar to boost exports. Since gold is typically priced in US dollars globally, a weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially increasing demand and pushing the dollar price higher. 5. Central Bank Demand: In an environment of heightened geopolitical tension and questions surrounding the dominance of the US dollar, central banks (particularly those in emerging markets or nations seeking to reduce reliance on the USD) often increase their gold reserves. This diversification strategy provides a steady source of demand, underpinning prices. A US-China trade conflict could accelerate this trend among various nations. 6. The Mechanics of the Price Surge The record high in gold prices isn't just a passive reaction; it's driven by active market dynamics: • Increased Investor Demand: Retail and institutional investors increase allocations to gold through physical bullion, gold futures contracts, and gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Large inflows into major gold ETFs are often a visible indicator of this heightened demand. • Speculative Activity: Traders in the futures market anticipate further price increases driven by the ongoing trade tensions and safe-haven flows, adding upward momentum. • Sentiment: Market psychology plays a crucial role. As prices rise and news headlines focus on the trade war and gold's rally, a positive feedback loop can emerge, drawing in more buyers afraid of missing out (FOMO). Silver's Ascent: Riding Gold's Coattails and Its Own Merits Silver prices registering a steep rise alongside gold during such a period is a common phenomenon, though its drivers are slightly more complex: 1. Monetary Asset Correlation: Silver, like gold, has a long history as a monetary metal and store of value. It often trades as "poor man's gold," attracting investors seeking safe-haven exposure at a lower price point per ounce. During strong gold rallies driven by macroeconomic fear, silver typically follows suit. 2. Industrial Demand Component: Unlike gold, silver has significant industrial applications (electronics, solar panels, medical devices). This is a double-edged sword during a trade war. While safe-haven demand pulls prices up, fears of a trade-war-induced global economic slowdown could theoretically dampen industrial demand, potentially capping silver's gains relative to gold. However, in scenarios where safe-haven buying dominates market sentiment, this factor often takes a backseat initially. 3. Higher Volatility: Silver markets are smaller and typically more volatile than gold markets. This means that significant inflows driven by safe-haven sentiment can lead to sharper percentage gains (and potentially sharper losses during corrections) compared to gold. The "steep rise" noted is characteristic of silver's higher beta. 4. Gold-Silver Ratio: Traders often watch the gold-silver ratio (the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold). When this ratio reaches historical extremes, some investors may buy silver, betting that it is undervalued relative to gold and that the ratio will revert closer to its historical mean. A major gold rally can stretch this ratio, triggering such trades and boosting silver demand. Global Trends and Context While the US-China trade war serves as a potent catalyst, it often occurs within a broader context of global trends that can support precious metal prices. These might include accommodative monetary policies from major central banks (low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold), existing geopolitical hotspots beyond the US-China relationship, concerns about sovereign debt levels, or nascent inflationary pressures. The trade war acts as an accelerant, amplifying the impact of these underlying factors on gold and silver. Conclusion The surge of gold prices to record highs during a period marked by an intense US-China trade war is a textbook example of the metal fulfilling its traditional role as a premier safe-haven asset. The conflict breeds deep economic uncertainty, stokes fears of currency devaluation, heightens geopolitical risk perception, and potentially influences central bank reserve policies – all factors that historically drive capital towards gold. The simultaneous sharp rise in silver prices underscores its strong correlation with gold as a monetary asset, benefiting from the same wave of risk aversion, albeit with the added complexity of its industrial demand profile. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors navigating volatile periods, highlighting gold's enduring appeal as a portfolio diversifier and a refuge when storm clouds gather over the global economy, particularly when sparked by friction between major world powers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY In Difficult Circumstances Since the Start 80's I decided to give a go at the Dollar Index given the circumstances around the world. And to be honest, I tried to put on the positive glasses. I believe the dollar has been in a complex correction since the mid 80's. Starting out with a large dump in '85 with the a-wave, the correction slowed down and only grew more and more complex. Thought about current wave: What I believe we are going through now is, that we are finishing up the purple C-wave in a green (C)-wave. This wave can end at any time now, since it's now at the 61.8% fib level of the purple A-wave. But it might go down to the 95 level (The green box) to complete at the 100% fiblevel of the purple A-Wave. But first we will have the fourth wave meaning the DXY is gonna struggle for some weeks. Because we had a swift two week wave 2, which means we are probably going have a slow fourth wave according to the rule of alternation. This mean the purple C-wave could drag out into the end of '25 into early '26. This is also with that in mind that a C-wave most likely will take longer than an A-wave. These are the Purple boxes. BUT, after this, DXY is gonna experience some happy years again, going back up to the yellow box somewhere between 110 and 120 to finish the WXY of x of the larger degree. This will take DXY into a couple of years bull-run as long as the green (C) wave runs and completes no earlier than late '27, depending when the purple C-wave prior to the green (C) wave ends. But I believe the green (C)-wave will take about two years to complete. But after this, DXY could again go into some dark ages and considering the high degree purple w-wave took 23 years to complete (blue giant box), there is no reason to believe this high degree purple y-wave will be a swift matter and actually don't complete before the year 2050. And it will take the DXY all the down to start 60's or lower. The reason I said I tried to put on the positive glasses, is that I tried seeing the white channel as a leading diagonal for a new bull run, but I just don't see it as such. I also tried seeing it as a C-wave of a flat diagonal, but this would result in another C-wave afterwards, and also take us down to the 60's level. So that didn't do us any good. For the sake of DXY, I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I see it.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
2