Euro/Usd (Mar/06) for rest of the weekHello eveyone.
as you can see price at golden pocket (high to low).alos near cpr Monthly R3 .
I know it's scary to sell at thi moment but this is what i see in chart.
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( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
Dxyindex
DXY, About to rally upwardHello guys,
A short quick update on dollar index, we are going to see a temporary upward rally in the dollar index, I am just posting the low hanging fruit target which is very high probability to achieve. and we will defiantly see the momentum changing from bearish to bullish.
NFP protocol: Keep the risk low
3.5 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe non-farm payrolls (NFP) and consumer price index (CPI) data to be released this week will be the focus of market attention. If the data is strong, especially the inflation data is higher than expected, the market may reduce the bet on the Fed to cut interest rates. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, an increase from the 44 basis points expected last week.
Gold Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
From the daily chart, gold received support near $2,832 last Friday and rebounded to $2,900 driven by tariff concerns. However, from this time frame, market information is limited, so it is necessary to further zoom in on the analysis period to get more details.
Eur/Usd Mar/05 Daily biasHello eveyone.
i closed all my longs.last 2 days was great ( check my posts )
price is up almost 3% this week.price above cpr weekly 3rd res . so in this situation i think we will see a pullback.
i'm using tight stop loss.( today ADP...be carefull )
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( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
DxyThis is a technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-hour timeframe. The chart indicates a bearish outlook, with price currently at 105.166 and showing signs of a downtrend.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Confirmation:
The price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish momentum.
2. Supply Zone (Red Box):
A red zone is marked at the top, indicating a possible resistance or supply zone.
This suggests that if the price moves back up into this area, it could face selling pressure and drop again.
3. Projected Price Action (White Box & Arrow):
The gray box below represents a potential target zone for the bearish move.
The zigzag pattern inside the box suggests a possible minor retracement before continuing downward.
Conclusion:
The analysis suggests a sell scenario if the price respects the supply zone and rejects it.
A break above the red zone would invalidate this bearish outlook.
The target area appears to be around 103.866, which aligns with a previous support level.
Would you like any modifications to this analysis?
Eur/Usd (Mar/04) Weekly biasHello everyone...
as you can see 1.05 to 1.054 is major resistance and if you go to monthly-weekly chart you can see that + weekly 21 ema + D 100 ema-ma
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but i think price can go above that area...
Monthly Open above Monthly pivot also right now price is above weekly pivot and euro attacked this area so many times...
( but if price can't close above 1.054 is bad for euro )
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( This is an idea and entry-tp-sl placed for my own trade , you can change entry-tp-sl depends on your risk management )
3.5 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsOn the first trading day of March, the US dollar index fell sharply. Data released by ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index in February was 50.3, lower than the expected 50.8, and the previous value in January was 50.9. 50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI continued to expand in January, the amplitude was small and tended to stagnate. Both new orders and employment shrank. At the same time, the material purchasing price index soared to the highest level since June 2022. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell further.
Gold rebounded sharply, challenging the 10-day moving average. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages still showed a dead cross. The daily RSI rebounded and reached the key pressure zone of 2900-10 in 4 hours. The short-term trend turned to bullish, but it was still not a strong bull market. You can wait for the opportunity to stabilize and go long near 2875.
DXY|LONG SETUPHello, I hope you have a great week ahead. This is my outlook for the Dollar Index, and please feel free to leave your comments and share your own perspective with me.
Initially, on the lower timeframes, I expect a rise to the 108.570 level and a potential breakout into this resistance zone. Afterward, I anticipate a drop to 105.888, which could mark the start of a sharp upward trend from this level. This is just my analysis, not a signal.
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
😊Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
DXY Correction Plays Out – Is a Reversal Next? Since the end of January, I have been anticipating a correction in the TVC:DXY , with a target around the 106 support level.
This correction has unfolded as expected, with the Dollar Index touching 106 on Monday, followed by another test and reversal yesterday.
A key observation is that since the early February spike, the DXY has been trading within a falling wedge—a pattern that often signals a potential reversal.
What’s Next?
✅ Bullish confirmation would come with a daily close above the 106.60–106.70 zone. If this happens, we could see a move up to 108.50, a key resistance level.
✅ Interim resistance sits at 107.30, which could also act as a potential target for bulls.
Trading Implications:
If the Dollar Index confirms an upside breakout, it could present selling opportunities in FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , and TRADENATION:NZDUSD .
#DXY 4HDXY (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a potential upward move could follow if the price breaks above the wedge resistance.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, signaling increased bullish pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the recent swing low to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The falling wedge suggests potential bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout with strong price action can provide better validation for the buy setup.
USD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Reversal at Key SupportThe USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a significant support level around 0.8950, with bullish signals emerging. The harmonic Bat pattern suggests a potential reversal, aligning with historical price reactions at similar levels. Additionally, the presence of green buy markers and RSI indicators approaching oversold conditions indicate possible upward momentum.
If price sustains above the 0.8950 region, a bullish move towards 0.9000 and beyond could unfold, with further resistance around 0.9120. Confirmation of reversal signs, such as bullish candlestick formations and RSI divergence, will strengthen the case for a recovery.
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠Fundamental Analysis
Weakening US Economy: The US economy's growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
Falling Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar.
💠Macroeconomic Analysis
The US economy's growth, inflation rates, and employment numbers influence the dollar's strength.
Global economic trends, such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, also impact the dollar's value.
💠COT Data Analysis
Net Short Positions: Institutional traders and large banks have increased their net short positions in the DXY Dollar Index, indicating a bearish sentiment.
COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.2, indicating a bearish trend.
💠Market Sentimental Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: 55% of client accounts are short on this market, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Option Skew: The 25-delta put option skew has increased to 15, indicating a bearish sentiment.
💠Positioning Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: Institutional traders and large banks are positioning themselves for a bearish trend, with some predicting a decline to 105.50.
Corporate Traders: Corporate traders are also monitoring the index's performance, considering factors like interest rates and global economic trends.
💠Overall Outlook
Bearish Trend: The DXY Dollar Index is experiencing a bearish trend, with a potential decline to 105.50.
Key Support Levels: 106.57, 105.50.
💠Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen to 40, indicating oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band breakout indicates a bearish trend.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis1. Long-Term Uptrend & Ascending Channel
The DXY has been respecting a well-established ascending channel for over two decades, with price action bouncing between the upper and lower trendlines. This suggests a macro bullish structure, despite periodic corrections.
2. Wave Structure for Clarity
The green waves highlight significant price swings within the trend.
These waves illustrate market cycles of expansion and correction, showing how DXY has moved through phases of strength and retracement.
The current movement suggests a similar pattern is playing out, with a likely correction before the next potential leg higher.
3. Key Price Levels
Resistance at ~113.07: A major historical level where the index has faced selling pressure.
Support Zone (~100-102): The blue area represents a critical support region that has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections.
Lower Trendline (~98): If selling pressure continues, the lower boundary of the channel (~98) could act as the final line of support before a potential reversal.
4. Potential Market Scenario
The price has recently rejected the upper region and is heading toward support.
If the 102-100 range holds, a bounce toward the upper trendline (~113) is likely.
If broken, the next target would be the lower channel support (~98) before a possible long-term recovery.
Gold Teeters on the Edge: 2942 Retest Before the Big Leap!XAU/USD: Gold Eyes New Highs as Market Dynamics Align for Further Upside
Gold (XAU/USD) is once again testing its all-time high (ATH), a critical technical level that historically increases the probability of continued upward momentum. With the psychological 3000 level gradually coming into focus, the market remains on edge, closely monitoring key economic data and geopolitical developments that could fuel the next leg higher.
Current Market Conditions & Fundamental Drivers
Gold’s latest consolidation phase follows an impressive rally, maintaining its long-term uptrend while digesting recent gains. The metal remains well-supported by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that continue to favor bullish sentiment:
Trump’s Tariff Plans: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated his stance on imposing tariffs if re-elected, a policy move that historically strengthens gold as investors hedge against trade uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve’s Dovish Shift: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts remain elevated. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the necessity of monetary easing, he has refrained from providing a specific timeline. This uncertainty has kept the dollar under pressure, indirectly benefiting gold.
Weakening Dollar & Falling Bond Yields: Recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced a dovish sentiment, signaling softening inflationary pressures. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have reacted accordingly, weakening in response and creating a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold.
Markets have also digested the delay in tariff implementations and mixed messages from policymakers. While the rhetoric from Powell and Trump suggests a growing consensus on the need for lower interest rates, the lack of concrete action leaves room for speculation-driven volatility.
Technical Landscape: Key Levels & Price Structure
Gold is currently consolidating just below its ATH, with a delicate balance between profit-taking and renewed buying pressure. The key technical levels to watch include:
Resistance Levels:
$2942.6 – The immediate barrier gold needs to clear to confirm a breakout.
$2950 – A psychological and technical level that, if breached, could accelerate bullish momentum toward the much-anticipated 3000 mark.
Support Levels:
$2929 – A critical short-term support zone that has previously acted as a springboard for renewed buying interest.
$2922 – A deeper support level where buyers may step in to defend the uptrend.
$2908 – A major pivot point; a break below this level could signal a temporary shift in momentum.
Potential Scenarios & Market Outlook
Direct ATH Retest & Breakout
If gold manages to sustain its momentum and push past $2942-$2950, a test of ATH will be imminent. A decisive breakout above this level could open the doors for a rapid move toward $2975 and beyond, with $3000 becoming a realistic short-term target.
Support Retest Before Further Upside
Should gold fail to break above immediate resistance, a pullback toward $2929-$2922 remains a plausible scenario. This retracement would likely serve as a healthy correction, providing stronger support for the next leg higher.
Deeper Correction Toward $2908
While less likely in the absence of a major catalyst, a sharper decline could see gold testing $2908. Such a move would challenge the uptrend in the short term but might present an attractive buying opportunity for long-term bulls.
Market Catalysts Ahead: U.S. Retail Sales Data
The upcoming U.S. retail sales report is poised to be a key market-moving event. Strong consumer spending data could momentarily boost the dollar, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail numbers would reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance, adding fuel to gold’s bullish narrative.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Momentum Intact, Eyes on ATH
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with macroeconomic factors and technical signals aligning in favor of further gains. While a support retest is possible before another rally, the overall trajectory remains bullish, with the 3000 milestone inching closer. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on resistance levels and upcoming economic data, as they could dictate the next major move in gold’s journey toward new highs.
EUR/USD Poised for a Pivotal Resistance BreachEUR/USD: Eyeing a Breakout Amid Dollar Weakness
The EUR/USD pair is navigating a critical juncture as it attempts to capitalize on the ongoing correction in the U.S. dollar. After a prolonged period of downward pressure, the price is now testing a crucial resistance level, hinting at the possibility of a breakout that could pave the way for renewed bullish momentum.
Technical Overview
Following an initial attempt to breach the overarching downtrend resistance, EUR/USD has transitioned into a consolidation phase, creating a defined trading range between 1.053 and 1.021. Within this broader structure, a more localized consolidation channel has emerged, with the price repeatedly challenging resistance at 1.038. This level is proving to be a pivotal inflection point, where market participants are carefully assessing the potential for a sustained bullish reversal.
The ongoing price action suggests that the market is still in the process of determining whether the recent correction in the dollar is sufficient to establish a structural shift in trend. A successful breakout above 1.038, followed by a decisive price stabilization above this threshold, would significantly increase the probability of continued upward movement.
Market Sentiment and Fundamental Factors
Beyond technical considerations, the fundamental landscape remains highly complex. Global economic uncertainties, compounded by the lingering effects of trade disputes and inflationary pressures, continue to shape investor sentiment. The ongoing tariff war and economic slowdown in key regions add another layer of unpredictability, making market reactions more sensitive to macroeconomic developments.
Despite these challenges, the weakening U.S. dollar provides a window of opportunity for the euro to gain traction. If the dollar correction deepens, it could further bolster the euro's position, enabling it to sustain higher levels and potentially embark on a more pronounced bullish trajectory.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels: 1.038, 1.053
Support Levels: 1.033, 1.021
A confirmed breakout above 1.038, supported by strong buying momentum and sustained price action above this zone, could unlock additional upside potential, allowing EUR/USD to advance further within the broader framework of accumulated market energy. Conversely, a failure to hold above this level may result in renewed downward pressure, keeping the pair trapped within its consolidation range.
As the market awaits further clarity, traders and investors should remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on both technical signals and fundamental catalysts that could influence the pair's next major move.