Dxylong
Expectations for the US Dollar Market from May to August 2024Expectations for the US Dollar Market from May to August 2024
May to Early July 2024:
The US dollar is anticipated to remain strong, with the market reaching a high of 108.459 by July 1, 2024.
First Three Days of July 2024:
After peaking, the dollar is expected to decline, potentially dropping to 105.785 by July 25, 2024.
Stay updated with our forecasts to navigate the US dollar market effectively.
Keywords: US dollar forecast, USD market trends, dollar strength 2024, USD predictions, currency market analysis, USD outlook May to August 2024, forex trading, financial forecasts, USD high and low, July 2024 USD predictions.
Feel free to share your thoughts and join the conversation on the US dollar market outlook.
DXYDXY is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last HH, which is 50% Fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this buying confluence the next leg up could go for new HH.
What you guys think of this idea?
DXY Price analysis 4th May 2024Monthly : The price has already created the MSS(M) in monthly, & there is Monthly BSL situated in 107.354. So I'm Bullish In monthly.
If we have any bulish PDA in Daily our M-Bullish bias will be confirmed.
Monthly Bias: Bullish
Daily : In daily chart the price has been create the Daily MSS after taking W-FVG+ & the price has been tested the D-FVG+, so in the up coming week we are going towards 107.354.
So if we have any H1- Bulish PDA formed then our Bullish Bias will be confirmed.
Daily Bias: Bullish
H1: Price has been closed above the D-FVG+, there could be 2 scenarios in H1.
1. The price will be taking the resent low, 104.598, gives a closer above 105.159 with a decisive upside move.
2. From this point the price will go upside with decisive move & closed above 105.228. Then the bullish Bias will be confirmed.
DXY & GBPUSD: Addressing Inefficiencies 📉 | Friday OutlookGreetings Traders!
Join me in today's video as we delve into an in-depth analysis of GBPUSD and DXY, exploring key expectations for today's trading session and summarizing this week's trends. This analysis is crucial as it sets the tone for next week's trading as well. We've reached a critical juncture on both the DXY and GBPUSD charts, making it essential to understand what lies ahead.
What do you think will be the major market mover going into next week?
Stay tuned for valuable insights, and don't hesitate to leave any questions or comments in the section below.
Happy Trading,
The_Architect
Fundamental Analysis of the US Dollar
The trend of the US dollar is as I predicted. This can be seen directly from the trend chart of the Asian market. The U.S. dollar index is currently showing an oversold rebound trend. The key thing to pay attention to is the pressure level above, which is around 105.3-105.5 to see if it can stand firm.
In trading, EURUSD and GBPUSD can be sold at a higher price first. Wait for the market to fall.
In the past, you always failed when trading alone.
But everything will change after you follow me.
Because we will be the ultimate winner!
DXY likely go up by rise in inflationwe believe The DXY TVC:DXY will rise after inflation data.
in the technical term we can see a 5-wave impulse pattern and an ABC correction
after that we may see another 5-wave upward momentum.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
#GBPUSD: 600+ Pips Selling Opportunity! FX:GBPUSD price fail due to DXY remain extremely bullish, though we thought price would rise up in our 1 hour timeframe and then continue dropping. However, DXY bullishness momentum was extreme and it kept on dropping. We might see some correction where price reaching around price region and then drop from that area.
If you like our work then please do like and comment the idea. Appreciate your support and good luck trading.
DXY's Final Leg: Charting the Course to 106Recent Achievements:
DXY has reached our previously set targets as mentioned in DXY Descent Alert: Path to 102.800 - 102.280 . Post-achievement, the focus was on determining the subsequent direction of DXY.
Trend Line Breakthrough:
Following its last ascent, DXY broke through the monthly trend line, a detail observable in our previous analyses, peaking around 104.500.
Correction Wave Insight:
This movement suggests that the correction wave, initiated at 100.617, is not yet complete. It merely finished its first leg at 104.976 and is on course to complete the third leg around 106, manifesting a complex WXY correction wave.
Detailed Wave Analysis:
Formation of Wave W: The journey from 100.617 to 104.976 forms the W wave, which is a wxy wave in itself.
Main Wave X: A descent to 102.358 represents our main Wave X.
Progress into Wave Y:
Wave Y's first leg has concluded, characterized by 5 waves that shape Wave A from Y.
DXY is currently descending to form Wave B, which, in the primary scenario, is expected to end around 103.800-103.500. Subsequently, Wave C would propel DXY towards approximately 106, completing a Zigzag correction.
Potential Corrections:
If Wave B extends deeper, a flat correction might conclude around 105-105.500, leading to a truncated Wave Y, or progress into a more complex correction. This scenario could result in a nested wxy pattern, similar to the main Wave W, aiming for the 106 mark.
Observations & Next Steps:
Continuous monitoring will be in place, with a commitment to providing additional analyses should there be any significant developments.
Post-Correction Predictions:
After completing its correction wave, DXY is anticipated to experience a downturn. Further analysis will be conducted to identify new targets at that juncture.
Invalidation Criterion:
A key invalidation point would be the breach of the price channel. It is always prudent to await retests before drawing conclusions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
DXY Index is Ready to Fill GAP🚀🏃♂️The DXY index is moving in the Ascending Channel and seems to have broken the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴, and is currently moving in a small Descending Channel and making a pullback to this zone.
🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY index has succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) inside the descending channel .
💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys .
🔔I expect the DXY index to Gp UP to at least the 🔵 GAP($106.613-$106.504) 🔵after breaking the upper line of the descending channel .
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If the DXY index can break the lower line of the descending channel, we can expect the DXY index to drop more.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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DXY : Why does a stronger USD pose many risks?As US growth remains strong and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates gradually decrease, capital has poured into this country's market and the USD has increased, specifically 4% this year and shows no signs of stopping. .
This situation is made even more difficult by the influence of other countries. By the end of 2023, the US economy had grown by more than 8% compared to the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the UK, France, Germany and Japan had grown by less than 2%. USDJPY record high. EURUSD dropped to 1.07 from 1.10 USD at the beginning of the year. The market even predicts that the pair will reach parity early next year.
If Donald Trump wins in November, there will be many problems. A strong dollar tends to increase the price of US exports and lower the price of imports, increasing the persistent US trade deficit, which has been a nagging problem for Mr Trump for decades. Robert Lighthizer, who designed the tariffs against China while Mr. Trump was in the White House, wants to weaken the USD. President Joe Biden has not made any statements about currency, but the strong USD also makes it difficult for his plans.
However, a strong USD will benefit exporters whose costs are denominated in other currencies. But high US interest rates and a strong USD have also created imported inflation, which has been exacerbated by rising oil prices. Additionally, companies that have borrowed in USD face tougher repayments. On April 18, Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned about the impact of these developments on global financial stability.
DXY Next move!(4/22/2024)In our last analysis, the DXY TVC:DXY continued its upward movement. actually due to geopolitical crisis, the market was betting on stronger dollar.
We believe that this week is going to be calm and slow market.
we are still bullish on US dollar.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY Index Pair : DXY Index
Description :
Impulse Correction
RSI - Divergence
Symmetrical Triangle
Break of Structure
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
DXY Weekly Analysis Here's the corrected version:
Last month, we anticipated that the #DXY price would continue to be bearish and take support liquidity from Mon 10 Jul '23. However, the fundamentals contradicted last month's analysis as the #DXY strengthened again after inflation rise and the Fed announced they would keep interest rates fixed until the next meeting. It's probable that we will see a Bullish trend in DXY this year if there's no decrease in inflation or interest rates.
This highlights the importance of fundamentals in this quarter. From a technical perspective, we observe weakness in breaking the support liquidity in #DXY, indicating that it will likely rise again and target Mon 02 Oct '23 for short-term liquidity.
For the long term, we anticipate the price will reach a fair value in the MON 07 Nov '22 liquidity gap as the long-term target.
DXY Price Analysis: 21 April 2024Monthly: In the monthly Price has been break the monthly BPR, so now the target it to go towards the M-BSL(107.354)
Monthly Bias: Bullish
Daily: The price has been brake the M-BPR, with a clear bulish D-MSS, along with D-FVG, so the momentum of the price is bulish, now the price has been taken the D-FVG+ so we will anticipate the price will go upward to wards the Daily-BSL nested in the D-VI.
Daily Bias: Bullish
Emerging Markets Struggle as the Mighty Dollar FlexesThe recent strength of the US dollar is posing a significant challenge for emerging markets around the world. Their currencies are weakening, creating a ripple effect across their economies. This article explores the reasons behind the dollar's dominance, the impact on emerging markets, and potential policy responses.
A Rising Dollar: The Driving Forces
The US dollar has been on a tear in recent months, appreciating against most major currencies. This surge can be attributed to several factors, including:
• US Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation are attracting investors seeking higher returns on dollar-denominated assets. This increased demand strengthens the dollar.
• Global Economic Uncertainty: As concerns about a global economic slowdown grow, investors flock to the perceived safety of the US dollar, seen as a safe haven asset during times of turmoil.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between the US and China are further fueling risk aversion, pushing investors towards the dollar.
Emerging Markets Under Pressure
The rise of the US dollar presents a major headache for emerging markets. Weakening local currencies lead to several problems:
• Imported Inflation: When the local currency weakens, the cost of imported goods rises. This can exacerbate inflation in emerging markets, which are already grappling with rising prices due to global supply chain disruptions.
• Debt Burden: Many emerging market economies have significant dollar-denominated debt. A weaker local currency increases the cost of servicing this debt, putting a strain on government finances.
• Capital Flight: The strengthening dollar can trigger capital outflows from emerging markets as investors seek better returns elsewhere. This can lead to currency depreciation and hinder economic growth.
Policy Responses: Verbal Intervention and Beyond
Emerging markets are not sitting idly by as their currencies weaken. Several are exploring policy options to counter the dollar's might:
• Verbal Intervention: Central banks in some emerging markets, like Malaysia, have resorted to verbal intervention, signaling their commitment to supporting their currencies. However, this approach has limited long-term effectiveness.
• Interest Rate Hikes: Some central banks, such as Brazil, are considering raising interest rates to attract capital inflows and stabilize their currencies. However, this risks slowing down economic growth.
• Currency Intervention: Central banks may intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars and buying local currency to prop it up. This approach can be expensive and depletes foreign exchange reserves.
JPMorgan and ANZ Weigh In: The Need for More Tools
Financial institutions are also analyzing the situation. JPMorgan Asset Management suggests that more verbal intervention may be necessary from emerging markets to manage volatility. However, analysts at ANZ bank believe that China, a major emerging market with significant influence, may need to deploy a wider range of tools, potentially including capital controls, to limit the depreciation of its currency, the yuan.
Looking Ahead: A Delicate Balancing Act
The coming months will be critical for emerging markets. Central banks face a delicate balancing act, trying to tame inflation without stifling economic growth. The strength of the US dollar will be a major factor influencing their decisions. The ability of emerging markets to navigate this challenging environment will have a significant impact on the global economic outlook.
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets.
There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way.
The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality.
So keeping it simple:
If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash
If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments.
Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east.
So jumping right in.
I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn.
This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets.
2 from past history
1 which is associated with our current Price action.
As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE.
Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured:
The 1st one lasted about 700 days
The 2nd one lasted about 460 days.
So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets.
Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets?
When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout.
In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market.
As indicated by black lines.
1st example it took 133 days after breakout
2nd example took 189 days after breakout.
We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline.
So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall.
Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things.
It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event.
However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
DXY Still have some move to the upside**Monthly Chart**
Last month's candle closed bullish and as a key reversal to the upside indicating a continuation move of DXY to the upside at least to 106 level and balancing monthly engulfing levels at 107. This tells me that other pairs such as EURUSD & GBPUSD still have room to move lower to the discount zone (extreme demand zone) before deciding to move higher.
Note: I don’t trade DXY but I use it as an indication when analyzing other currency pairs linked to USD.
**Weekly Chart**
There is a weekly High at around 105 level followed by a liquidity pool imbalance between 106 and 107 level. These levels will be critical for DXY if it wants to break to the upside. However, last week candle closed as doji (indecision) which was due to low movements in the market last week.
**Daily Chart**
Last week move was only a continuation of the upswing of the previous week which coiled near the MC candles of 14 Feb 2024. I will be watching the market reaction near the weekly high and look for a sign to suggest the next move for other pairs against USD.
📈DXY Daily Long Scenario / A Bearish Week Waiting For Gold?📉TVC:DXY
FXOPEN:DXY
Hello dear traders.
⚡️ In this post I will track the DXY movements from 12 Apr - 18 Apr.
📈 What to Expect?
💡As long as DXY is above the midline of the pitchfork structure, the bullish scenario is quite valid.
The bullish scenario targets are on the price chart.
⚠️Important Note⚠️:
The price movement has been drawn a little wider than the actual movement to make it better visible. The actual price trend is likely to be faster.
Do not hesitate to ask any question about the analysis.
CrazyS
Analysis of the dollar index in the monthly time frameIn my opinion, the correction of the dollar has been completed and this index has started moving to break the level of 121 by completing the money back with the local support of the rand number 100, and this is a warning for other markets.
"Beta version whale"
US Dollar index⚠️Reaction From Hedger Premium Zone OutUS Dollar index hit the important price areas in all USD related assets
✔️DXY is expected to rise
✔️Recommended to consider buying
🟢 Try to BUY🔼 all the Dips !!!
✔️Confirmation Buyer Limit Area Zone
Now try to go up with new buyers...
✔️Buy the dips!!!
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DXY BUYING ON DIPS TILL 104 HELLO TRADERS
As I can see DXY is tested a strong support zone and now it can move up again to test the trend line till 104 with more good data for US this Week CPI and Inflation rate can boost the dollar again from this given support our risk reward is great on this trade it's just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other traders Stay Tuned for more updates
