Dxysell
DXY Short at resistanceAnalysis:
I've seen DXY correctively retrace towards a diagonal resistance (trendline).
& It is currently entering into a 2 day reversal zone.
Hypothesis:
I am looking for latent sell orders to kick in at these levels, and a final wave down will ensue.
Price should trade down to a Weekly reversal area, where I have indicated by the blue arrow
Risk Management:
Trade potential 3:1 +
Take off half at 1:1, and move stops to Break even. Let rest ride to Target.
If you are concerned about shorting against short term bullish momentum.. you can wait for a 4hr bearish candle before entry.
PS: If my analysis is to your liking... please like the post & subscribe. Thanks.
DXY : THE SWEET ESCAPE!Hi traders!
Today's analysis is cover yet again the DXY. It is such a important chart to follow since we trade everything USD related. We trade almost all USD forex pairs and trade commodities likes gold, silver & WTI priced in US Dollar!
Now, the DXY is having a very technical drop. It broke through one long lasting support which was also an order block. Since the price broke under, we are seeing lower highs, meaning that each rally seen in the past weeks have been lower each time. This just confirms yet again the bearish bias going forward of the US Dollar.
We can also see a new bearish channel forming. I drew it in the chart to confirm. Also from a technical stand point, we can a divergence staring to draw itself if you look closely on the MACD. The RSI also suggest weakness in all the bullish bounces we saw.
All majors pairs gained during that time span and we can confirm it by looking over at EU, GU, UJ, AU & NU. Even silver and gold gained some!!
From this analysis, I see the USD going down to test a new support down around 86.52
From there we should expect a bigger bounce that we saw when we went under last support.
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: This is my trading analysis, it is not an invite or recommendation to trade.
EURUSD a clear long playEURUSD is a very clear long play and even stronger on a break of our recent high and above 1.21. I see people calling the top in EURUSD and bottom in DXY everyday and that gives me a further bullish outlook on EURUSD. Sentiment is everything, news is just a catalyst, and technicals are just a way to determine a good entry.
DXY going to test 91 and lowerDXY is heading to $91 and even lower if we break below there. Sentiment towards the dollar everywhere is trying to pick a bottom which isn't good for dollar bulls. My current positions are short DXY , long EURUSD , long XAUUSD , short USDJPY , short USDCAD , long USOIL , long DJIA and long SPX. I will be holding these positions until sentiment turns the opposite way. I see very big moves in all of these pairs coming through 2018.
DXY : STATE OF THE MARKET VOL.9Hi traders!
We are back to see how our DXY friend is doing. This is not our first time covering this index. The marker makers made sure before showing its hand that we had total fakeout. This week when I said that the 92 level was big and DXY found the strength to push higher. We thought at that time that maybe DXY had somehow found something within itself for that final bull run but the market markers just bought it a little and now DXY is crashing hard vs all majors currencies.
When you look at it from a technical perspective... it played out almost perfectly for the bears to take back control of this index. I didn't even draw anything here... if you go back to our last DXY analysis, these are the same FIBS and support lines! This is why I encourage people to never erase their previous work until it is totally invalid.
So what do we expect the pair to do for the foreseeable future? Crash... and probably crash some more until it reaches that trend line we drew (that is forming a nice asymmetrical wedge) Until then we will go short USD on all pairs. The last stand from the Fed came when Yellen gave her speech not too long ago assuring that they will hike rates again in 2018 (fundamentally this supposed to make the currency stronger). The market isn't buying that crap it seems.
I want to add that this downtrend of the DXY will give both silver (active entry) and gold some more ammunition to run again. Be on the lookout that commodities are bullish for the short term.
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: This is my trading analysis, it is not an invite or recommendation to trade.
DXY Short - Longer term pictureShort DXY. We have broken the upwards channel alongside a head and shoulders and now are in a bearish channel. We are retesting the neckline from current levels to 92.50/92.60 as a good short entry. Retail is long the dollar and are calling bottoms everyday which gives me a further bearish outlook on the dollar index.
DXY : STATE OF THE MARKET VOL.6Hi traders!
This is DXY REVISITED
We covered the DXY in the STATE OF THE MARKET VOL.2. At that moment, the price finally bounced of our order block and found some kind of momentum upward. That bull run had a few legs because it ran for some time before finding resistance around 95.00
Like any type of trend, the price has to retrace to become a healthy run. Uptrend channel do have 2 trend lines that it must follow in order to continue its movement. Unfortunately for DXY, the price broke the bottom trend line and went back into our order block. We had a bull trap after when the price even broke the order block only to retrace really slowly into the bottom of said order block before closing. All traders thought that the DXY just faked a move down.
....And people got caught AGAIN with their pants down! The price tricked us again to go back test 95 just to drop down again but now closing under the order block. This confirms for us that DXY may resume as early as this week its overall bigger trend that started above 100 which is FULL BEAR MODE!
Aside from that, our two favorite indicators showing us the way too. You can see that a divergence on the MACD already started. Also, this aligns us perfectly with that reversal on the RSI.
Until proven otherwise, the trend will be bearish!
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: This is my trading analysis, it is not an invite or recommendation to trade
The USD will fall during 2017.There is a strong bear divergence on the 1W and 1D DXY chart.
I believe during 2017, the DXY will fall to the low 80's.
I base this not only off the bear divergence illustrated above, but my strong doubt that the Fed will raise rates during 2017, and that the US economy will continue to slow.
DXY @ 15 min @ upside trend should be confirmed (last ECB & FED)Upside trend should be confirmed (started 1h before last ECB & FED press conferences) ...
A continuous bullish move we`ll see by prices above 103.56 (last week high & yearly high) and bearish move by prices under 101.78 (last week temporarly high). But prices above 99.11 still are still don`t damging the slightly bullish picture (on higher time frames) ...
How ever, important, while last days before christmas, are at least in my opinion, the 3 last weekly highs (102.05 & 101.83 & 101.74). If they holds this week, we should trade DXY higher while over next week. Prices between 102.62 & 102.21 could be something like a make or break area - even after the bullish flag, which confirmed the bullish upside trend (after last ECB & FED press conferences), All in all still a pretty picture for the DXY ?! How pretty bullish/bearish we`ll see (while next days until christmas) :)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a analysis (for swing traders) - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
DXY @ 30 min. @ Areas during ECB (today) & FOMC (next week)99.11 DXY is in my opinion still the make or break line
prices above 99.11 DXY are suggesting still bullish scenario into new highs 2017 - eventhroughout Trump Election
prices under 99.11 DXY are suggesting sharper fall into SellOff Area sceanrio - even while Election Night in nov`16
I can still imagine after yesterdays 1st sharp rise after Trump Election that this basic trend still continous throughtout both central bank meetings. Slightly continously higher US Equities (higher Financials & Energies), higher US Yields, lower gold & higher Oil & even slightly lower DYX into 99.11 at least. A further fall into 98 or even lower until 96 would ShakeUp Equities faster, of course ...
How ever, if you wanna trade a swing (hold positions some days or weeks)
the ICHIMOKU Indicator & PPO Indicator were a good entry/exit signal triggers :)
Right here right now i am prefering to stay NEUTRAL throughout both events - until both indicators are switching back into the long option. then i would prefere the long side back again - even as trand follower :)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron