Gold breaks new high again, the market waits for a pullback to gFundamentals: Gold hits a new record high today, and the market continues to hold a bullish view after the decline.
Gold is currently maintaining a relatively strong oscillating trend in the large-scale cycle trend, and the upward space in the large-scale cycle trend is likely to have not yet been completed. The daily level trend continues to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend along the short-term moving average. The wave of decline before and after the European session has completed the repair of the technical form to a certain extent. The oscillating repair temporarily maintained at a high level in the hourly level trend currently has no particularly obvious trend. The range in the short-term trend may be compressed to the oscillating repair trend between 3060-85. Although there are some rebounds in the small-scale cycle trend, the strength and continuity are not too large. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment and repair.
Operation suggestions:
Short near 3080-7, stop loss 3085.2,
Long near 3059-60, stop loss 3053.1.
Real-time market intraday guidance.
Dxyshort
3.28 Gold Breaks Point, Falls Back to Support Long PositionsOn Thursday (March 27), affected by the news that US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imported cars, global trade tensions further escalated, market risk aversion heated up, and gold prices once again approached the record high set last week.
Fundamentals: Gold fell from its pre-US high. The decline supports the long position view.
The new US tariffs have exacerbated market tensions, and PCE data will become the next focus of attention.
The current market is active, and both long and short sides are engaged in fierce competition around key resistance levels. The dual drive of technical and fundamental factors has significantly amplified the volatility of gold prices.
The cumulative net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 155 tons, and the total holdings have climbed to the peak since September 2023. In the previous trading day alone, the scale of a single-day increase of 23 tons set a record since 2022. The unexpected growth of central bank demand for gold purchases and the continued inflow of ETF funds together constitute the "two-wheel drive" for gold's medium- and long-term bullishness. If this trend continues, it will provide sufficient liquidity support for gold prices to break through historical highs.
The current price is close to the historical high, and some long profit-taking pressure is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may become the fuse to trigger a pullback
Trend: shock upward trend
Support: around 3033.00
Resistance: around 3055.50
3.28 Gold breaks new high again, holding on is the keyGold price hits a new record high of 3086, and today's low is the key
Gold price hits a new record high of 3086, which is in line with our bullish thinking of restarting strength since Tuesday
Now the price has also broken through the upper track of the green channel line. The next focus is on keeping low. Keeping low and breaking high will accelerate. Breaking the low point will easily return to sweeping
Today's low point defense position has two, the first is the early trading low of 3054, because it is a direct rise in the early trading to break the new high, and the afternoon continues to break the new high. In this case, it is particularly important to hold the early trading low ;
The second is the position along the green channel line, 3063-3061, which is also the position of the acceleration starting point
Then, next, hold the position along the green channel line, and switch upwards for at least 50-70 US dollars, corresponding to the resistance of the 3100-3115 area
The key point is to hold low, hold low and break high to see acceleration, and break the low point to turn to sweep
As shown in the figure, this wave of confirmed support began to rise, starting from breaking through the green dotted line suppression. After the breakthrough, repeatedly stepping back to confirm the 3015 upper and lower areas Support, then stand up and stabilize in the 3033-3030 area, and start an upward breakthrough
In the process, it is accompanied by a deep squat of 18-20 US dollars. After the leverage is completed, it will rise by more than 40 US dollars to break the new high
For the market that directly rose in the morning, there was a second sprint to break the high in the afternoon, so refer to 3068-3066 as support to continue to layout the bullish sprint to the 3080-3082 area
The price also accelerated the sprint and rose, and slightly exceeded the range of 3086
: Suppression line Under pressure, enter adjustment, squat 18-20 US dollars, confirm the support and continue to pull up more than 40 US dollars (what needs to be considered and verified at this moment)
For this pressure position, the focus is on the 3082-3085 area (now the excess range has reached 3086), using this as a suppression to find a space range of 18-20 US dollars, corresponding to the 3062-3060 range
The short position in the 3082 area fell to 3072-3070 as expected
Verify the conjecture step by step, time is the best verification tool!
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3.27 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsOn Thursday (March 27) in the Asian weekly session, the gold price (XAU/USD) was still consolidating around the $3,020 level, and the overall market sentiment was cautious.
Fundamental analysis:
US economy and Fed trends
Geopolitical and tariff uncertainties
Technical analysis:
Gold prices continued to consolidate at high levels after breaking through $3,000, and are still above the short-term moving average, with an overall bullish trend.
Moving average and trend: The moving average is in a bullish arrangement, indicating that the short-term and medium-term upward momentum has not been destroyed. The price fluctuates repeatedly between MA14 (3021) and MA200 (3017). If the market can stay above these two moving averages in the future, the upward momentum is expected to continue.
Key resistance and Fibonacci retracement: Fibonacci retracement 0.236 corresponds to around $3038, which also coincides with the high point formed in the previous period. If the price falls below the Fibonacci 0.618 position (about $3,000), we need to be alert to the risk of technical adjustments to find $3,000 or even deeper support.
3.26 Technical analysis suggestions for short-term gold operatioIn the early European trading on Wednesday (March 26), spot gold continued to rebound in the short term, and the current gold price is around $3027/ounce.
Gold technical analysis, how to operate in the evening? ——
The daily chart of gold shows that gold prices are rising above all bullish moving averages, while setting higher highs and higher lows. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has gained upward momentum and currently provides dynamic support around 2954.70. At the same time, after correcting the extreme overbought conditions, technical indicators resumed their upward trend within the positive level. From the 4-hour line, gold prices are fighting against the mildly bearish 20-period SMA, but are still well above the bullish 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are retreating from the midline and slightly lower within the neutral level. Overall, it is recommended to treat gold operations with a wide range of fluctuations today!
Gold operation strategy at night:
Short order strategy: short near 3031 above, stop loss 3040, target near 3010;
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3.26 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsGold is still supported by risk aversion, but it quickly fell back after rising. In fact, the support of safe-haven gold is not surprising. However, since the gold bulls did not continue, it means that the space for gold bulls is also limited. Gold rose and fell in the US market. Gold was directly short at 3032. Gold fell as expected. The US market rebounded high and was still short.
Gold's 1-hour moving average is still in a downward dead cross. Gold bulls cannot reverse the situation. Gold fell directly to 3035 in the US market under pressure.
Support level: 3018 3005 3000
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3.26 Gold 3020 shock adjustment technical analysisOn Wednesday (March 26) in the Asian session, spot gold prices traded above $3,020/ounce, and the market is reassessing the potential impact of the latest U.S. tariff policy on global commodity liquidity.
Interpretation of intraday technical analysts:
The 60-minute chart shows that gold prices are at a critical decision point, with MA55 (3019.70) and MA14 (3015.83) gradually approaching, and prices stabilizing above MA200 (3009.71), and the short-term moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. It is worth noting that the price of $3,020 constitutes an important intraday balance point, the MACD indicator diverges from the bottom and presents a golden cross, DIFF (0.54) crosses DEA (-1.07), and the column expands to 3.20, indicating that momentum is accumulating. The three RSI lines are unified in the neutral area of 54.05, leaving room for price breakthroughs. The first resistance above is in the 3028-3033 range. If it breaks through, it will test the previous high of 3047; the 3011.67-2997.86 area below forms a dense support belt.
I will send the exact entry point in my channel link. If you need it, you can click on my link and get it for free.
3.25 Gold short-term operation technical analysis suggestionsOn Tuesday (March 25), the spot gold market showed a trend of consolidation under the interweaving of multiple factors.
Fundamental analysis: the game between policy expectations and risk sentiment
1. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut dominates the market sentiment
2. The suppression of risk aversion demand by risk events
3. Short-term disturbance of macroeconomic data
Technical analysis:
The current price fluctuates narrowly in the range of 3000-3033 US dollars. As the upper edge of the transaction concentration area in the past three months, 3000 US dollars has become a battleground for long and short positions. If the daily closing price effectively falls below this position, technical selling may push the price down to the support area of 2982-2978 US dollars, or even test 2956 US dollars (the support of the previous breakthrough position conversion). On the contrary, if the price stands at 3033 US dollars (overnight high), it is expected to challenge the historical high of 3057-3058 US dollars set last week, and a new round of upward space will be opened after the breakthrough.
Resistance: 25 30 40
Support: 18 08 3000
3.25 Gold short-term shock callbackGold's current strong trend in the large-scale cycle trend has changed. Pay attention to the support band around 2950 during the week. In the 4-hour level trend, the price rebounded and touched the previous pressure band and then began to fall back. The short-term moving average continued to diverge downward and continued to be weak in the short-term trend. The price began to slowly fall below the short-term terraced support band, tending to have a downward space in the short-term trend. The short-term trend began to show signs of stabilizing slightly after a wave of rapid declines. Pay attention to whether there will be a second downward trend after a small rebound and repair in the late trading. If it falls below 3000, look at 2990 85 below. Otherwise, look up 20-30
3.24 Gold intraday operation ideasAfter last week's intense volatility, this week's market sentiment diverged significantly, with different categories performing differently. In addition, as the month is coming to an end, market risk appetite is reduced, so it is necessary to be cautious.
We still need to pay attention to economic data this week, because we need to observe the prospects for US economic development through data, and another thing is inflation, which the market and the Federal Reserve are concerned about.
Last Friday, the world's largest gold ETF added 20.08 tons of positions at one time, which was the eighth consecutive increase. This kind of continuity is relatively rare. In theory, it is a positive support for gold prices, but the increase and decrease of ETFs is more viewed from a medium- and long-term perspective.
The initial pressure on the intraday gold price is around $3,026, and the further pressure is around $3,035. The strong pressure or the long-short dividing point is at the high point of $3,040. The current rebound is slightly stronger, and it may be the first to continue the rebound.
The primary support below the day is around $3005. After breaking down, further support is at $2995. If the first retracement is near this level, you can intervene and buy. The rebound target price is around $3020. As for whether the rise can continue? It must stand firmly above $3040. Below this level, there is a risk of retracement at any time.
BUY: 3005 Stop loss: 2995
TP1:15
TP2:25
TP3:35
SELL:3040 Stop loss: 48
TP1:30
TP2:20
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3.22 Gold Short-term Trend Analysis and SuggestionsTechnical analysis:
From the daily chart, technical indicators show signs of upward exhaustion and lose strength at extreme levels. At the same time, gold prices are holding above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) providing dynamic pressure near 2941.70. From the 4-hour chart, the 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA continue to move higher, well below the above short-term moving averages. At the same time, the momentum indicator moves lower in the positive area but loses downward strength; while the relative strength index (RSI) corrects the overbought condition and then stabilizes near 61. Overall, Zhang Jinglin recommends wide fluctuations in gold operations today!
Short-term operation strategy:
SELL: Short near 3045 above, stop loss 3051, target near 3015, 3000.
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3.21 Gold peaking or rebounding?The three tracks of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have shrunk severely, and the current range is compressed in the 3056-3012 range. As time goes by, the range will continue to shrink. The short-term support middle track and the MA30 moving average correspond to the 3034-3020 line. The 4-hour indicator macd has a high-level dead cross and runs with large volume. The dynamic indicator double lines are glued together and flat, indicating that there are signs of further decline in the 4-hour period. Pay attention to the suppression of the 3042-45 line in the short term.
The hourly macd dead cross is initially established, and the dynamic indicator sto is quickly repaired downward, indicating that the price shock is weak. At present, pay attention to the resistance of 3042-48 above.
In summary: Pay attention to the support of the 3025 line below during the day, and pay attention to the suppression of the 3057 line above. Combined with the shrinking of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, the short-term price remains in the range of 3025-3053. The short-term resistance is at the 3042-45 line.
Resistance: $3,045; $3,079; $3,100; $3,108
Support: $3,018; $3,000; $2,974; $2,956
3.21 Gold Short-term Analysis and Operation SuggestionsGold hit a record high on Thursday (March 20) after the Federal Reserve hinted that it might cut interest rates twice this year, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold amid the current geopolitical and economic tensions. As of press time, spot gold was basically stable near $3,030, having hit a record high of $3,057.21.
——Gold Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, the volume indicator is firmly aiming higher, supporting another wave of gains, while the relative strength index (RSI) is stable near 72. At the same time, the price of gold is trading above all its moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) providing dynamic support near 2,936. From the 4-hour chart, technical indicators have eased from extreme levels, but are far from indicating an imminent downtrend. In addition, the 20-period SMA continues to rise steadily, currently around 3,011, while well above the longer-term moving average. Overall, Zhang Jinglin recommends rebounding and shorting as the main operation of gold today!
Gold short-term operation strategy:
SELL: 45 Stop loss 55
TP1:35
TP2:25
TP3:10
3.20 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsOn Wednesday, gold maintained a bullish trend! In yesterday's trading:
1: Following the trend principle, the support is stuck at 3020, but the amplitude of the retracement is not given to the retracement near 3020, the lowest is the range of 3022-3025.
2: For short orders, avoid short orders directly; because there is no price reference for short orders, no indicator reference for short orders, therefore, avoid all of them;
3: In terms of trend, at the current stage, the bullish trend is still continuing, therefore, do not catch the top, do not think about catching a large-scale short order, it is not realistic for the time being!
In today's market:
1: 4 hours, the stochastic indicator is in a golden cross state, the main long signal; MACD double lines are glued together, and the state of passivation divergence! These signals suggest that the market is mainly controlled by bulls during the day, and it is difficult to fall sharply for the time being; in terms of form, the continuous positive rise and the broken positive oscillation form, the short-term support position is near 3040; the high point is unknown;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to form a golden cross, which is a bullish signal; in terms of form, the continuous positive rise is the main trend, and the short-term support position today is near 3040;
To sum up: today's short-term trend thinking; the support positions are near 3040, near 3020; near 3000, followed by around 2990; near the support, the trend thinking;
3.20 Focus on the long and short battle of the Federal Reserve!!On Wednesday (March 19), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level during the Asian and European sessions, hitting a record high of $3,045/ounce during the session, and then fell slightly to around $3,029. The market focus is highly concentrated on the upcoming Fed's March interest rate decision.
Fundamentals: 1. The struggle between risk aversion demand and policy expectations
2. Rising geopolitical risk premiums
3. Trump's tariff remarks sparked concerns about economic recession
4. Fed policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Technical aspects: Long and short game in high-level fluctuations
4-hour structure chart:
Bollinger Band pattern: upper track 3044.86, middle track 3031.24, lower track 3017.63, the current quote 3030.49 is close to the middle track, indicating a short-term balance of long and short forces. If the price stands firm on the middle track, it is expected to test the upper track (3044) again; if it falls below the middle track, it may seek support from the lower track (3017)
Moving average support: The 100-day moving average (2928.75) and the 200-day moving average (2903.27) form a long-term support band, and the price difference with the current quotation exceeds US$100, further verifying that gold is in a strong cycle.
Resistance level: 3050 3080 3100
Support level: 3018 3000 2980
3.19 Gold continues to peak, waiting for the Fed's interest rateThe gold market continued to rise strongly after opening yesterday, reaching the highest point of 3038 and then consolidating at a high level, with no obvious adjustment in the middle. Although we determined that the market would surge, it was still stronger than expected. The daily line finally closed with a big positive line with a slight shadow line. After this pattern ended, the bulls in today's market are still there.
Resistance level: 3045 3050
On 3.19, gold continued to fluctuate upward after breaking throuAs a safe-haven asset, gold has attracted more buying amid global political tensions: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the continued strikes by the United States against the Houthi armed forces in the Red Sea region may affect the energy supply chain. The uncertainty of the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has led to a high risk aversion in the market. The increase in domestic political risks in the United States may affect market confidence and push up gold demand.
The rise in gold on March 18 is in line with my thinking. Obviously, the US market was suppressed at 3028. After a short-term retracement, it further broke upward. It is expected to continue the upward trend at night and see the suppression of 3044.
The weekly and monthly lines are concerned about the upper track position, and even diverge upward under the impetus of market sentiment. The specific position cannot be determined because there is no reference point, but it is only necessary to follow the market trend to do it, and the transaction is relatively simple. From a technical perspective, the upper track of the weekly line is 3030, and the upper track of the monthly line is 3050. This is the position that needs attention. In addition, the previous two waves of rises have gone through 4 positive monthly K lines, and then closed with a negative correction.
Support level
$2994; $2982; $2950
Resistance level
$3025; $3050; $3080
3.18 Risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts support gold toIntraday data analysis:
Gold hit a new record high and maintained an upward trend. For the support below, pay attention to the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger band at $3010, followed by the integer position of $3000, which is also near the high point of gold prices on Monday; for the pressure above, pay attention to the upper rail of the weekly Bollinger band at $3028, which is also the upper rail position of the current 4-hour Bollinger band. If the gold price continues to break upward, the upper space can pay attention to the upper rail of the monthly Bollinger band at $2950. The 5-day moving average and the MACD indicator cross upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators cross upward. The short-term technical side is bullish.
Gold intraday reference: Supported by risk aversion expectations and interest rate cut expectations, gold maintains an upward trend and gold prices hit a new record high. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a volatile mindset. Pay attention to the support below at $3010, followed by $3000. Pay attention to the breakthrough near $3028 for the pressure above. If it stands firm here, you can continue to pay attention to $3050.
3.18 Gold Refreshes $3,000, Be Cautious About Backtesting RisksIn 4 hours, the main trend is continuous rising and breaking rising; the main trend is anti-falling; in terms of indicators, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, mainly empty, but the pattern is anti-falling. At the same time, the MACD double lines are glued together, without crosses. Therefore, the cross of the stochastic indicator is just a correction method for 4 hours to change time for space; the horizontal support position is at the support position of 2980 and 2955.
Short-term operation: SELL: 3000
TP1: 2990
TP2: 2980
TP3: 2970
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3.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the early Asian session on Monday (March 17), spot gold fluctuated at a high level and is currently trading at $2,990.02/oz. Spot gold once broke through the important $3,000 mark during trading last Friday, reaching a high of $3,004.82/oz, setting a new historical high. Investors chased this historic surge in safe-haven assets, seeking to avoid the economic uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff war, and then fell slightly due to profit-taking, closing at $2,988.12/oz.
Analysis of intraday gold short-term operations:
Gold is still in a three-month upward channel, and the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains around 70, indicating that the bullish tendency is still intact.
Once the gold price stabilizes above $3,000/oz (integer level, midpoint of the ascending channel) and confirms that this level is support, then $3,060/oz (upper limit of the ascending channel) may be set as the next bullish target, and the next bullish target is $3,100/oz (integer level).
On the other hand, if gold fails to turn $3,000/oz into support, technical buyers may be frustrated. In this case, $2,920/oz (20-day simple moving average, lower limit of the ascending channel) and $2,900/oz (round level, static level) may be seen as the next support level for gold
Resistance: 2998 3010 3020
Support: 2980 2965 2950
3.17 Gold short-term may extend low and longLast week, the gold market opened at 2912.9 at the beginning of the week, and then fell back at the beginning of the week. After the weekly low reached 2880, the market rose strongly due to risk aversion. After breaking the previous historical high of 2957, the market accelerated upward. On Friday, the weekly high reached 3005.2, and then the market consolidated. The weekly line finally closed at 2986.1, and the market closed with a big positive line with a lower shadow slightly longer than the upper shadow. After this pattern ended, the market continued to look at the bullish demand point after the adjustment at the beginning of the week. After the breakout of 2940 and 2958 last week, the stop loss was followed up at 2956.
Short-term operation suggestions:
SELL: 2995 target 2980 70 stop loss 10