4.5 Gold falls off a cliff and waits to stabilize! ! !Gold 4-hour level: The last wave of pull-up started from the low point of 2999 to 3167. Yesterday, it fell back and tested the 618 split position 3063. The current support is still valid, which is also the MA66 day position; From the perspective of macd, it is still short-selling and has not been fully repaired. Wait until it crosses below the zero axis, and then slowly stabilizes and tends to golden cross in the future market, then a wave of trend pull-up will gradually form, and it will take time; if 3063 cannot be maintained, the two split positions below are 3035 and 3018, and attention should be paid to stabilization.
Intraday support: 3035 3018 3005
Resistance: 3045 3070 3100
Dxyshort
Non-agricultural gold is expected to fall sharply. On Friday (April 4), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated March non-farm payrolls report, which put pressure on gold.
Fundamentals: Today, gold is expected to fall sharply. The market continues to short at resistance points.
Market volatility is expected to increase during the period. The long-short game of the US dollar index near the 102 mark will determine whether it can continue to rise. If it breaks through 103, it may further suppress gold and non-US currencies. Gold is looking for direction in the range of 3080-3100 US dollars/ounce. If risk aversion picks up, it may retest the 3100 mark; on the contrary, if the US dollar continues to strengthen, breaking through 3080 will open up downside space. The decline in US stock futures may continue until early next week.
4.4 Gold is low and long, wait for non-agricultureYesterday, the gold market opened at 3134.1 in the morning. The market first fell back to 3122.6 and then rose strongly. After breaking the previous high, it reached a high of 2167.9. After that, the market began to fall under the cooperation of fundamentals and technical profit-taking. The intraday low was 3053.6. After that, the market rose strongly and reached 3135.8 before consolidating. The daily line finally closed at 3114.1. The daily line closed in a spindle shape with a very long lower shadow. After this shape ended, after the break of 2940 and 2958, the long positions were reduced, and the stop loss was followed up at 3050. If it falls back to 3082 first today, the long stop loss is 3075. The target is 3115 and 3132. If it breaks, the target is 3140 and 3150.
4.4 Analysis of gold short-term operation strategy!!!On Thursday (April 3), spot gold experienced a surprising volatility, with a single-day fluctuation of nearly $114, and the price of gold finally closed down.
Analyze the technical outlook of gold intraday.
The 4-hour chart of gold shows that the price of gold is trading below the currently flat 20-period SMA, but it is still well above the bullish 100-period SMA, which provides support near $3040/oz. At the same time, technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings and stabilized within negative levels. If the price of gold falls below the above-mentioned $3040/oz area, the price of gold may fall sharply.
Support: $3086.70/oz; $3073.90/oz; $3061.10/oz
Resistance: $3123.10/oz; $3136.70/oz; $3150.00/oz
DXY:Today's trading strategyTrump's announced comprehensive tariff plan has triggered global attention. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, on Thursday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally showed a significant downward trend. On that day, the price rose to a high of 103.931 at most, dropped to a low of 101.232, and closed at 101.937.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index price on Thursday, after the opening in the morning, the price continued to decline in the short term. Subsequently, the price remained weak all the way with almost no rebound. It underwent short-term oscillatory consolidation and finally closed with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. For now, pay attention to the resistance in the 102.80 area and the level of 102.40, and keep a continuous watch for further bearish pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@102.50-102.60
TP:101.50-101.30
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Monthly closing line, gold is alert to pull higher and fall backAt the end of March, the monthly and quarterly lines of gold and silver closed with saturated strong positive lines. The first trading day of the month has broken the high by inertia, which is consistent with expectations. Next, the focus should be on guarding against the potential scenario of pulling up shipments in the first half of the month, and the possibility of extreme volatility.
There are a lot of heavy news data from the 2nd to the 4th. I think there is a high probability that there will be an obvious turning point. However, given that the global political and economic situation has not cooled down significantly, even if there is a turning point and a correction, or even a sharp correction, it is still difficult to make a real judgment of a reversal of the big cycle trend. Therefore, I think the general idea of the short and medium-term line should be to maintain short first and then long.
The small resistance is around 3145--3155, and the important support during the week is around 3050. Given the recent volatility, it is obviously necessary to continue to be prepared to deal with continued large fluctuations.
The above strategy is based on current market analysis, and specific operations need to be combined with real-time data!
4.1 Analysis and Suggestions on Gold US Market Operation IdeasGold intraday interpretation
Gold failed to hit 3150 in the morning session. How will the subsequent market evolve?
It hit a high in the morning and then fell back to 3125-3130 to stop the decline and enter consolidation. If it fails to break through 3150 on Thursday, it will have a chance to enter a high-level adjustment, and the decline may reach 30-50 points!
Market sentiment has been brewing for a long enough time. Everyone should look at tariffs rationally. Even if there is no tax increase, there is no need to be too surprised.
Currently entering the triangle consolidation pattern, which is a type of relay pattern. The pattern is usually accompanied by a reduction in trading volume and resumes the original trend after breaking through.
Focus: 3150 key resistance. Don't chase north above 3140. If the intermediate form is used, the probability of breaking through 3150 during the day is not high. Mainly look at the ADP employment number on Wednesday. Beware of the US market retreating from 3113 to 3117 and then rebounding quickly.
Lower support: 3125 3113 3105
Upper pressure: 3150 3165
Monthly line saturated big positive line, gold and silver swordsYesterday, the gold market opened slightly higher at 3088 in the morning, and then fell back. The daily line reached a low of 3076.5, and then the market rose strongly. After breaking the 3100 integer mark, the daily line rose strongly. The daily line reached a high of 3128, and then the market consolidated widely. The daily line finally closed at 3123.8, and then the market closed with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, today's market still has technical bullish demand. In terms of points, after the breakout of 2940 and 2958, the stop loss followed up at 2990. Today, the stop loss of 3110 is 3105, and the target is 3128 and 3132. The breakout is 3140 and 3150-3152.
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4.1 Analysis of gold intraday short-term trendFrom the daily chart, the gold price fell slightly after breaking through the previous high of $3127.76, but it is still in a strong upward channel overall. The current price has been stable above the 5-week moving average for many consecutive weeks, indicating that the medium-term trend is still healthy. It is worth noting that from the low of $2536.68 to date, gold has risen by more than 23%, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of short-term adjustments. The next target will point to the psychological level of $3200. Factors supporting this view include rising global uncertainty, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and continued gold purchases by the central bank. In addition, the closing price needs to stabilize above $3135 to confirm the effectiveness of the long-term breakthrough. In this case, the price may accelerate upward, with a target of $3170.
Short-term resistance: 3130 3150 3170
The market is changing with the trend, and it is recommended to adjust the strategy in combination with real-time data!
4.1 Technical analysis of short-term gold trading BUYGold is currently temporarily maintaining a high range oscillation in the 4-hour level trend, but the short-term moving average continues to maintain a strong trend, and a wave of bottoming rebound in the 4-hour level trend has basically completed the repair of the technical pattern. Pay attention to the secondary pull-up trend after the high-level oscillation repair is completed. The hourly level trend is currently temporarily maintained in a high-level oscillation, but the strength and continuity of the US market's retracement are not particularly large. The technical pattern of the small-level cycle trend has also been gradually adjusted and completed, and it tends to be able to continue to rise in the late trading.
Intraday short-term operation:
BUY: 3110 Stop loss: 3005-3100 Target 3125-3130
DXY:Seize the opportunity to sell short at high pricesThe situation in the Middle East is clearly deteriorating, which undoubtedly has a huge stimulating effect on the global risk aversion sentiment. More funds have started to seek safe havens. However, the best choice at present is not the US dollar. With the continuous rise of the East, more and more capital will favor this side of the East. Therefore, the pressure on the US dollar index is actually increasing, and it will be very difficult for it to rise.
Regarding the trend of the US dollar index today, although the current situation exerts great pressure, the actions to support the market of the US dollar index still take effect from time to time. So the price will not keep falling, and there will still be some oscillatory patterns. However, even if it moves in an oscillatory pattern, the upward pressure on the US dollar index will be significant. Therefore, when the price reaches the effective resistance level, it will be an excellent opportunity to short the US dollar index.
DXY Trading Strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
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3.31 Gold US market operation analysis suggestions!Gold intraday analysis and operation: How to judge the next step after gold breaks through 3130!
Gold's strong rise in the Asian session has brought the price of gold close to 3130 and finally stagnated at 3127. The impact of the US market has not yet appeared, but with the current trend, the volatility of gold tonight will not be too small. The overall idea is to maintain the low north. The intraday volatility range is maintained within the range of 40 points between 3090 and 3130. The current increase has exceeded market expectations. Although there is selling pressure, it is all suppressed by the bulls!
US market pressure focus: 3130-3150 above and 3110-3095 below
The above analysis is a personal analysis suggestion, I hope it can bring some gains to everyone!
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3.31 Gold officially breaks through 3100In the early Asian session on Monday (March 31), spot gold once again saw a surge in prices shortly after the opening. The most active gold futures contract in New York was traded in one minute from 10:22 to 10:23 Beijing time on March 31, with 890 lots traded, and the total value of the trading contracts was US$279 million. Affected by Trump's latest tariff news, spot gold maintained the current bull market trend. The gold price broke through the US$3,000 mark and broke through US$3,100 only half a month after breaking through the US$3,000 mark. As of 10:39 Beijing time, it was reported at US$3,105.23 per ounce.
Gold technical analysis: Gold closed higher with a big positive line last week, and after consolidating at a high level, it increased strongly and closed at a high level. The weekly K-line is still strong, with a big bald positive line. There will be further continuation this week. However, the monthly line closed today. After the volume is released, we must also be careful of the wash of the high and fall. The daily chart has continued to rise and set a new high. The Asian session is a slow consolidation and then a slow new high. The consolidation is not the high, and the volume is the top. At present, there is further rise in the short term. Gold was stimulated by risk aversion over the weekend. It opened high and fell back on Monday. However, gold fell back under pressure at 3100 in the short term. We must pay attention to adjustments. Then gold is just adjusting. Wait patiently for it to fall back before going long. The technical side of gold shows a strong upward trend. US$3070 has become a new short-term support level. The current upward momentum is sufficient and there is momentum for further rise. The influence of gold bulls on the current trend of gold has reached the highest level in history, but the trading scale and heat have not reached the most crowded range in history. There is still room for funds to further increase positions, which provides support for gold prices.
3.31 Gold Operation Strategy Reference:
Short Order Strategy:
Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3100-3103, short (buy short) in batches with 20% of the position, stop loss at 3110, target around 3085-3075, and look at 3070 if it breaks; (Strategy is time-sensitive, more real-time layout strategies are announced in the channel.)
Long Order Strategy:
Strategy 2: When gold pulls back around 3070-3073, long (buy long) in batches with 20% of the position, stop loss at 3060, target around 3085-3095, and look at 3105 if it breaks; (Strategy is time-sensitive, more real-time layout strategies are announced in the channel.)
DXY:It is about to witness a quarterly declineBecause concerns about tariffs causing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have pushed down U.S. Treasury bond yields, the stock market, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The U.S. dollar is likely to experience a quarterly decline next week, and we can seize the opportunity to short on rebounds.
Trading strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
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Gold breaks new high again, the market waits for a pullback to gFundamentals: Gold hits a new record high today, and the market continues to hold a bullish view after the decline.
Gold is currently maintaining a relatively strong oscillating trend in the large-scale cycle trend, and the upward space in the large-scale cycle trend is likely to have not yet been completed. The daily level trend continues to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend along the short-term moving average. The wave of decline before and after the European session has completed the repair of the technical form to a certain extent. The oscillating repair temporarily maintained at a high level in the hourly level trend currently has no particularly obvious trend. The range in the short-term trend may be compressed to the oscillating repair trend between 3060-85. Although there are some rebounds in the small-scale cycle trend, the strength and continuity are not too large. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment and repair.
Operation suggestions:
Short near 3080-7, stop loss 3085.2,
Long near 3059-60, stop loss 3053.1.
Real-time market intraday guidance.
3.28 Gold breaks new high again, holding on is the keyGold price hits a new record high of 3086, and today's low is the key
Gold price hits a new record high of 3086, which is in line with our bullish thinking of restarting strength since Tuesday
Now the price has also broken through the upper track of the green channel line. The next focus is on keeping low. Keeping low and breaking high will accelerate. Breaking the low point will easily return to sweeping
Today's low point defense position has two, the first is the early trading low of 3054, because it is a direct rise in the early trading to break the new high, and the afternoon continues to break the new high. In this case, it is particularly important to hold the early trading low ;
The second is the position along the green channel line, 3063-3061, which is also the position of the acceleration starting point
Then, next, hold the position along the green channel line, and switch upwards for at least 50-70 US dollars, corresponding to the resistance of the 3100-3115 area
The key point is to hold low, hold low and break high to see acceleration, and break the low point to turn to sweep
As shown in the figure, this wave of confirmed support began to rise, starting from breaking through the green dotted line suppression. After the breakthrough, repeatedly stepping back to confirm the 3015 upper and lower areas Support, then stand up and stabilize in the 3033-3030 area, and start an upward breakthrough
In the process, it is accompanied by a deep squat of 18-20 US dollars. After the leverage is completed, it will rise by more than 40 US dollars to break the new high
For the market that directly rose in the morning, there was a second sprint to break the high in the afternoon, so refer to 3068-3066 as support to continue to layout the bullish sprint to the 3080-3082 area
The price also accelerated the sprint and rose, and slightly exceeded the range of 3086
: Suppression line Under pressure, enter adjustment, squat 18-20 US dollars, confirm the support and continue to pull up more than 40 US dollars (what needs to be considered and verified at this moment)
For this pressure position, the focus is on the 3082-3085 area (now the excess range has reached 3086), using this as a suppression to find a space range of 18-20 US dollars, corresponding to the 3062-3060 range
The short position in the 3082 area fell to 3072-3070 as expected
Verify the conjecture step by step, time is the best verification tool!
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3.28 Gold Breaks Point, Falls Back to Support Long PositionsOn Thursday (March 27), affected by the news that US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imported cars, global trade tensions further escalated, market risk aversion heated up, and gold prices once again approached the record high set last week.
Fundamentals: Gold fell from its pre-US high. The decline supports the long position view.
The new US tariffs have exacerbated market tensions, and PCE data will become the next focus of attention.
The current market is active, and both long and short sides are engaged in fierce competition around key resistance levels. The dual drive of technical and fundamental factors has significantly amplified the volatility of gold prices.
The cumulative net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 155 tons, and the total holdings have climbed to the peak since September 2023. In the previous trading day alone, the scale of a single-day increase of 23 tons set a record since 2022. The unexpected growth of central bank demand for gold purchases and the continued inflow of ETF funds together constitute the "two-wheel drive" for gold's medium- and long-term bullishness. If this trend continues, it will provide sufficient liquidity support for gold prices to break through historical highs.
The current price is close to the historical high, and some long profit-taking pressure is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may become the fuse to trigger a pullback
Trend: shock upward trend
Support: around 3033.00
Resistance: around 3055.50
3.27 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsOn Thursday (March 27) in the Asian weekly session, the gold price (XAU/USD) was still consolidating around the $3,020 level, and the overall market sentiment was cautious.
Fundamental analysis:
US economy and Fed trends
Geopolitical and tariff uncertainties
Technical analysis:
Gold prices continued to consolidate at high levels after breaking through $3,000, and are still above the short-term moving average, with an overall bullish trend.
Moving average and trend: The moving average is in a bullish arrangement, indicating that the short-term and medium-term upward momentum has not been destroyed. The price fluctuates repeatedly between MA14 (3021) and MA200 (3017). If the market can stay above these two moving averages in the future, the upward momentum is expected to continue.
Key resistance and Fibonacci retracement: Fibonacci retracement 0.236 corresponds to around $3038, which also coincides with the high point formed in the previous period. If the price falls below the Fibonacci 0.618 position (about $3,000), we need to be alert to the risk of technical adjustments to find $3,000 or even deeper support.
3.26 Technical analysis suggestions for short-term gold operatioIn the early European trading on Wednesday (March 26), spot gold continued to rebound in the short term, and the current gold price is around $3027/ounce.
Gold technical analysis, how to operate in the evening? ——
The daily chart of gold shows that gold prices are rising above all bullish moving averages, while setting higher highs and higher lows. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has gained upward momentum and currently provides dynamic support around 2954.70. At the same time, after correcting the extreme overbought conditions, technical indicators resumed their upward trend within the positive level. From the 4-hour line, gold prices are fighting against the mildly bearish 20-period SMA, but are still well above the bullish 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are retreating from the midline and slightly lower within the neutral level. Overall, it is recommended to treat gold operations with a wide range of fluctuations today!
Gold operation strategy at night:
Short order strategy: short near 3031 above, stop loss 3040, target near 3010;
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3.26 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsGold is still supported by risk aversion, but it quickly fell back after rising. In fact, the support of safe-haven gold is not surprising. However, since the gold bulls did not continue, it means that the space for gold bulls is also limited. Gold rose and fell in the US market. Gold was directly short at 3032. Gold fell as expected. The US market rebounded high and was still short.
Gold's 1-hour moving average is still in a downward dead cross. Gold bulls cannot reverse the situation. Gold fell directly to 3035 in the US market under pressure.
Support level: 3018 3005 3000
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3.26 Gold 3020 shock adjustment technical analysisOn Wednesday (March 26) in the Asian session, spot gold prices traded above $3,020/ounce, and the market is reassessing the potential impact of the latest U.S. tariff policy on global commodity liquidity.
Interpretation of intraday technical analysts:
The 60-minute chart shows that gold prices are at a critical decision point, with MA55 (3019.70) and MA14 (3015.83) gradually approaching, and prices stabilizing above MA200 (3009.71), and the short-term moving average system showing a bullish arrangement. It is worth noting that the price of $3,020 constitutes an important intraday balance point, the MACD indicator diverges from the bottom and presents a golden cross, DIFF (0.54) crosses DEA (-1.07), and the column expands to 3.20, indicating that momentum is accumulating. The three RSI lines are unified in the neutral area of 54.05, leaving room for price breakthroughs. The first resistance above is in the 3028-3033 range. If it breaks through, it will test the previous high of 3047; the 3011.67-2997.86 area below forms a dense support belt.
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3.25 Gold short-term operation technical analysis suggestionsOn Tuesday (March 25), the spot gold market showed a trend of consolidation under the interweaving of multiple factors.
Fundamental analysis: the game between policy expectations and risk sentiment
1. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut dominates the market sentiment
2. The suppression of risk aversion demand by risk events
3. Short-term disturbance of macroeconomic data
Technical analysis:
The current price fluctuates narrowly in the range of 3000-3033 US dollars. As the upper edge of the transaction concentration area in the past three months, 3000 US dollars has become a battleground for long and short positions. If the daily closing price effectively falls below this position, technical selling may push the price down to the support area of 2982-2978 US dollars, or even test 2956 US dollars (the support of the previous breakthrough position conversion). On the contrary, if the price stands at 3033 US dollars (overnight high), it is expected to challenge the historical high of 3057-3058 US dollars set last week, and a new round of upward space will be opened after the breakthrough.
Resistance: 25 30 40
Support: 18 08 3000
3.25 Gold short-term shock callbackGold's current strong trend in the large-scale cycle trend has changed. Pay attention to the support band around 2950 during the week. In the 4-hour level trend, the price rebounded and touched the previous pressure band and then began to fall back. The short-term moving average continued to diverge downward and continued to be weak in the short-term trend. The price began to slowly fall below the short-term terraced support band, tending to have a downward space in the short-term trend. The short-term trend began to show signs of stabilizing slightly after a wave of rapid declines. Pay attention to whether there will be a second downward trend after a small rebound and repair in the late trading. If it falls below 3000, look at 2990 85 below. Otherwise, look up 20-30