US dollar market trendYesterday, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan said that "the market is unstable and there will be no interest rate hikes". This is a relatively "dovish" statement. In addition, the upcoming September interest rate cut conveys a good opportunity to enter the market.
That is, the US dollar will still fall. Although the market is narrow today, the US dollar continued to rise at the end of the trading day, but it should not last long.
Personal analysis: looking for high points and shorting
Dxyshort
Looking for reversal in DXY under 102.2 zone(8/5/2024)In our last analysis, our prediction played well, the DXY corrected to 103.7, and after NFP data reached 102.7.
With the fear of recession and NFP data, We are expecting DXY to retest the 102 zones.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
The collapse of US stocks across the board, is this a sign of a 8.2 US stocks collectively plunged
Qualcomm fell 9%
Nvidia fell 6%
Tesla 6%
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8%
Intel fell short of expectations
Is the above directly related to the news of interest rate cuts in September?
The answer is "YES"
What do you think of this comment area? Welcome to comment
Will the dollar continue to fall?Market trends and analyst Ang Kar Yong, according to the CME Fed watch Tool, the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 100%. Overall, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. If the July non-farm report is lower than market expectations, the unemployment rate rises and/or average income growth slows, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates more than twice before the end of the year will increase.
This will undoubtedly bring additional bearish pressure to the US dollar index.
DXY Q3 bearish bias confirmed. Quarterly: Based on the Quarterly theory this is Q3 of this year 24, & Q2 was the manipulation of this year, which has been formed upside, So the Q3-Destribution the price will go down whole August-September 2024,
Draw on Liquidity: If I draw a FIB from the last year low to this year high the OTE Level is around 102-389 to 101.917. levels. So we will check any monthly PDA in this levels for the DOL, for the price.
Weekly: As there was 2 W-FVG- 's bellow the PQM level's so POI of price revarsal was that 2 W-FVG- 's for revarsal.
Now before the NFP Day, there are a possible W-SMT has been forming, So this confirmed me that the price is giving us a sign of revarsal. We need h4 confirmation for that to be more clear.
H4: In this H4 the price has formed a bearish H4-Breaker/Unicorn formation, which is a strong sign of revarsal, in a W level of POI, which gives me farther confirmation that in the up coming week the price will move lower.
So when all this 4 analogy
1. Quarterly Q3, Bearish analogy,
2. W-FVG- as a resistance,
3. H4-Bearish Breaker,
4. W-SMT in W-FVG-
When placed all to-gather in the chart, it gave me a confirmation that the DXY is going down up coming 2 months.
US economic recovery, good news for the global economyDXY: The USD index last week maintained an accumulation status around the 104.10-104.50 range and has not broken out yet. It is likely that the market will need information from this week's FOMC to have clearer trends. In the short term, it is expected that today, DXY will continue to accumulate around this price range, so you can consider buying USD when DXY retests 104.10.
--
On July 25, the US Department of Commerce released a report showing that the world's largest economy grew by 2.8% in the period from April to June 2024 (twice as high as the previous quarter).
This growth is considered solid, as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation control measures seem to be effective.
Inflation, one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s monetary policy, is showing signs of cooling. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.2% in June, down from a peak of 9.1% last year. This development is believed to be the result of the Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes over the past year.
DXY declined when Biden withdrew from the White HouseDXY: The USD index in today's session has reacted to a decrease and correction right after the information last weekend. Showing a bearish outlook in the context of Biden's withdrawal from the white house. The scenario in today's trading session is that DXY is expected to continue to weaken. Ace, please consider selling with USD
US President Joe Biden introduced the stop of his re-election marketing campaign on July 21 (US time) and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris to update him because the Democratic presidential candidate.
In the assertion on
This week, he's scheduled to present a public speech.
Being your president is the greatest honor of my life. Although I intend to run for re-election, I believe that for the best interests of my party and the country, I should stop and only focus on completing my presidential duties," Mr. Biden wrote.
A few minutes after the above message, he wrote another message supporting Ms. Harris. "I chose Ms. Kamala Harris as my vice presidential candidate in the 2020 race. And it was the best decision I made," he continued.
US stocks and bond yields increased sharplyLong-time period U.S. bond yields rose on expectancies that Trump`s rules could boom authorities debt and inflation, at the same time as cryptocurrency shares additionally rose together with Bitcoin. Trump has delivered himself as a cryptocurrency advocate.
Investors say a Trump victory may want to imply greater tax cuts and a greater comfortable regulatory environment. The S&P 500's strength region rose 1.6%.
Impact from assassination and hobby rates
On making a bet web website online PredictIt, the agreement for a Trump victory become buying and selling at sixty eight cents, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a capacity agreement of $1. Contracts for a Biden victory had been at 26 cents.
The assassination in Pennsylvania on Saturday of Trump regarded to enhance his election chances. The 20-year-antique attacker's reasons continue to be a mystery, with the suspect killed and the FBI not able to decide the intentions in the back of the attack.
“The marketing and marketing round this occasion is offering a boost,” stated Josh Wein, portfolio supervisor at Hennessy Funds. “But in latest days the inventory marketplace has increased. So that is a continuation of a sturdy rally from the second one 1/2 of of remaining week while we found out that there has been purpose to rejoice the concept that there might be one and now probably price cuts in stop of the year."
Possible correction waiting for DXY(7/16/2024)DXY faced strong bearish momentum after CPI data. In the last few days TVC:DXY made a minor correction but the sentiment around USD is still bearish.
We believe DXY continue its downward momentum until it reaches the 13.8 area.
This area has a lot of liquidity, so maybe push the price to a little correction.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY rebounded after news about USDPlease follow my analysis DXY: Yesterday's USD index re-tested the bottom area then rebounded. On the H4 frame, a set of reversal candles appeared, but this morning's session has a decreasing GAP, so in the short term, it is expected that DXY will test this support zone again and then may increase again. Ace can consider buying with USD today
DXY - testing the bottom, rebounding on news daysDXY: Yesterday's USD index re-tested the bottom area then rebounded. On the H4 frame, a set of reversal candles appeared, but this morning's session has a decreasing GAP, so in the short term, it is expected that DXY will test this support zone again and then may increase again. Ace can consider buying with USD today
DXY Weekly Market out look 6 July 2024Weekly: Price has closed bellow the W-FVG+ so we could anticipate the market will go down towards the W-SSL (103.996).
Weekly Bias: Bearish
Daily: The price has been created a D-MSS with a D-FVG-, so we could expect in the up coming week the price could retest the D-FVG- then go to wards down side.
Daily Bias Bearish.
Selling pressure on USD is increasing and in the current contextDXY: USD index today is maintaining below 105.20.
After consecutive drops beyond the support level, the USD is in a continuing downtrend
Investors should pay attention to protect profits with BUY positionsShows that selling pressure on USD is increasing and in the current context, information about the US is getting worse, causing the USD to weaken. Regarding technical factors. Because it has broken out of the uptrend zone, it is expected that the market will have a slight retest of the trend and then continue to decline. You can consider maintaining a sell watch with USD today.
DXY: there will be a correction todayDXY: The USD index yesterday fell sharply, penetrating the support zone and creating a head and shoulders pattern that can be clearly observed in the H1 frame in the context of negative information focusing on the US yesterday. And the FOMC meeting somewhat supported the USD's adjustment, but not significantly. Regarding technical factors this morning, DXY tested the neckline again, so it is likely that USD will continue to decline today. Consider maintaining a short position with USD.
TWO POSSIBLE SETUPS ON THE $I currently see a very strong dollar, but is this a classic fueled movement or does it have some foundation?
According to my idea we could see a decline very soon. It could be followed by a rise before taking action, which is why I leave you two possible setups on the dollar.
Always use your head, this is not a copy and paste but reasoning to do together.
DXY:C has bearish GAP reactions amid election newsDXY: The USD index is having transient reactions withinside the establishing consultation of the week with GAP falling sharply in a touchy context because of election news. In phrases of technical factors, with this GAP pressure, it's far viable that the USD will witness a bigger correction that could increase the buildup variety to the 105.6 area. You can keep in mind quick promoting the USD today.
DXY: USD index still maintains bullish stanceDXY: The USD index yesterday received both good and bad news. Therefore, we see that the USD largely maintains a state of accumulation and adjustment. On the Daily frame, a fairly positive candlestick is formed around the 105.70 threshold. However, in today's session, DXY is at risk of a deeper correction to around the 105.50 - 106.00 area and maintains its accumulation state today. You can consider buying USD when DXY returns to the 105.5-105.6 area.
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world.
- Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..)
- When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength.
- When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up.
- it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine".
- i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience.
- actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes.
- So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things :
- You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend.
- So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? )
- MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol.
- i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe.
- So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index)
- ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly.
- In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator.
- So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way.
- First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns.
- Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish.
- So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later.
- it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders.
Happy Tr4Ding !