DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash.
* FOMC WATCH . US November CPI was estimated to come in at 0.3% but instead came in at 0.1% , compared to October's 0.4% it's fair to say that it eased a bit. Meanwhile Core CPI rose 0.2% in November compared to 0.3% in October. The last FOMC rate hike is expected to be announced tomorrow, though there is still a chance for another 75bps rate hike, the majority of speculators are anticipating 50bps. If they go with 50bps, it's reasonable to expect volatility tomorrow followed by further downside to DXY; however, if they go with 75bps, DXY should see a bit of a reversal in the short/medium-term. In a surprising move which is likely due to national security interests, China banned exports of their Loongson military grade processors to Russia ; Russia had apparently been testing them for a while as opposed to Intel and AMD processors due to Western sanctions. The USA is preparing to send their Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine in response to Russia continuing to bombard key energy infrastructure as Ukraine approaches their coldest parts of winter.
DXY, Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, JPYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and Short-Term US Treasurys are up. While Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, CNYUSD, Long-Term US Treasurys and VIX are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. *
Price is currently attempting to bounce here at $104.06 before retesting the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105.27, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 34, the next resistance is at 39.43 and the next support at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 29.40 support. MACD remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at -1.21 support; if it breaks below this support level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 33 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.80.
