Controversial approach to the DXY Outlook for the YearControversial approach to the USD Outlook for the Year. Obviously affecting how we approach Makor pairs.
Dxyviews
DXY - Long SetupI think chart explains pretty much everything.
-be patient and market will reward you )
Good luck!
What's in store for USD in Q2... time to choose our side!Firstly congratulations to those who took shorts on the previous idea (please see attached), very well done for clearing all targets on the handle.
We are rolling with the dollar holding 100.xx post FED - we need to keep in sync with the dollhair to make our next few months a lot easier and it will separate the men from the boys, having a crystal clear map will be invaluable.
OK so with that in mind, lets draw our maps moving forward;
As long as strong prints on the macro front continue, then as will Trump's Honeymoon be extended with tax cuts being tracked like a hawk by smart money. The initial knee jerk rally is over as markets have begun to demand more since Trumpcare fell through.. In any event, there are many doors still open, if not tax cuts then we have huge infrastructure and if all else fails there is always defence (or "attack").
What we now need to track is the pullback we find ourselves in... there is plenty of room either side here, what I aim to do by publishing this idea is to start the discussion and place for us here to track and put in context over the next Q and current leg.
Our options are as follows;
a. BUY above 102.xx -> TP 109.xx
b. SELL below 98.xx -> TP 92.xx
c. sidelined, waiting for things to become clearer
d. No idea
DXY shortHi Seildev here.
This looks remarkably similar to the DXY slip in May this year.
- Point A shows the attempted recovery from 18th/May ~ 19th/May however fell lower within a day
- Point B shows similar patterns which shows recovery however will fall within a day.
Projected high move to hit 96.44 and fade.
Projected DXY to be 94.5 by end of this month. DXY has been avoiding patterns and showing impulse movements to bait retail traders which in turn reverses after 24 hour period. This is the new day of Q3 and start of new financial quarter which psychologically may portray a "fresh start" image for the heavily fading US dollar in the past quarter. I believe this would be a fake out and will reverse within 96.2 ~ 96.4 down to 94.5 by the end of this month.
Please trade with care. This is only my opinion from backtesting.
DXY Seems bullish today news are commingToday many Events From USA like
US CPI m/m
US Core CPI m/m
US Retail Sales m/m
US Retail Sales m/m
and few others. As Technically Strong support at 99.3 level and as Fundamental also data seems in favor of usd it data comes good and hold support we can see usd 100-100.4 level soon.
Stay long with usd till not breaks 99.2
Big Day for DXY Expecting Volatility Important day a head As Calendar
BOJ Press Conference with in 25 mins.
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks @ 2.10PM
Eur Minimum Bid Rate @ 4.45PM
Eur ECB Press Conference
US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
US Unemployment Claims
@ 5.30PM
US Pending Home Sales m/m
@ 7.00PM
Timing as per PST +5 GMT. Expecting bad day for USD.
dxy gates to 99 are open (not for long!)as seen in previous dxy chart, irrespective of the huge fed repricing the USD finished the week lower - not a word from the fed this week so expect a potential for a hike in europe, market is pricing in first hike in almost 3 years
DXYfailed to retest previous high. we should see it have a bearish trend down to the trendline plotted.
USD Index for the Long term Investment < to 2025 Probably!long it , to the trend ,
Then short it to the B AREA
if the price goes up the red trend , and it is something really hard but everything in the market can be , so long it again to A Area
see you after 7 years :=) , or if something really big happen ,and i expect the second one ,
Update idea
dollar index short pattern94.80 $ is the target for head and shoulders pattern.
if dollar break 99.24 will go down.
pattern fail by break 103.65 to up ...
DXY Daily Key ElementsDXY major level of resistance:
103.40 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance)
DXY major levels of support:
92.00 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support)
AUDUSD technical indicators:
RSI (34) is seeing strong bearish divergence vs price.
DXY DailyI would like to see bounce back to 100.33, reverse and break above 101 level to profit target at 102.
Level 101 is very strong resistance level from multiple time frames.
Otherwise close below 100.33 will open the way to 99.24
/dx Oversold Bounce Ahead of Capital Flight to U.SAfternoon
Firstly apologies guys for not posting many ideas recently, I have been up to my eyeballs working on other projects alongside our private trading group.
The neckline was broken on the head and shoulders around the 100 level indicative of further decline toward the 98 handle.
Provided the DXY remains below the right shoulder highs and 50d moving average of 101-101.50, this technical top pattern remains influential and bearish in the near term.
96 is there as underlying support with extension targets of 110, 121 and 130
Thanks for all of your support, please remember to like and comment your views!
DXY Daily price levelsDaily close below 98.85 - bearish scenario to 97.85 and next below - 96.40.
Daily close above 100.97 - bullish scenario to 101.97 and 103.82
Dollar Index Intraday Forecast: move up to 100.75 - 101.0Expect DXY to gain some strength in the first part of the week (100.75 - 101.00). Midterm i think DXY has still some room to drop.
USD on News Week Views News Week ahead so expecting USD toward 104 if hold above 100.5. Where breakage of 100.5 may call for 99-99.5
Lets ready for Zigzags Rides
1. May's Brexit speech on January 17
2. ECB meeting on January 19
3. Trump's inauguration as 45th US President on January 20
4. Bank of Canada meets
5. China's President Xi to address Davos
Sell DXY to sub 100Just a small update on my previous ideas regarding the DXY.
Straight-forward sell set-up, strong bear div.
DXY @ 1h @ will the upside trend (above 101) holds, this week ?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
USD ShortContinued idea from before.
For some reason there is a delusional expectation that the USD will rally due to Trump and "interest rates". I strongly believe it will fall during 2017.
Strong bear divergence in the RSI, as well as the fact that the RSI has rolled over.
The USD will fall during 2017.There is a strong bear divergence on the 1W and 1D DXY chart.
I believe during 2017, the DXY will fall to the low 80's.
I base this not only off the bear divergence illustrated above, but my strong doubt that the Fed will raise rates during 2017, and that the US economy will continue to slow.
USD overall we hope 102FOMC a head We Feeling Rates hike or not
things hopefully like this overall usd 102+
may b direct from current price or little down
toward 100-100.2 then upward 102-102.2
Support 99.5 Resistance 102.5
The last push of the cycle!So guys, when you hear someone talking about patterns that repeat itself, this is usually what they mean. Can you see that similarity between those two cycles? Sure you do :)
I am expecting this last leg to end at the TL and the 1,414 to 1,618 Fib extension area.
Like if you agree, Follow and support!
Dxy Views Dxy trading around 101.6 where daily high 102.05 as Trend line its can Drop from current level or from 102.05 if hold above 102.2 on Daily then next is 103-103.5 where if hold below 102.2 a corrective move Expected toward 100.3-100.5
If this happen As idea
Eur 1.0650-1.07
usdjpy 113.5-114
Gold 1175-78
Expected
