Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session. Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Expanding triangle on the 1h tf and that’s a form of a trading range. Big up, big down, big confusion, more sideways likely. 5530 is the most important price currently at about the middle of the range. Did the bears do enough damage today to expect follow through tomorrow? I don’t think so....
Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Interesting trading day to say the least. Globex rallied 27 points to 5587 where it stalled for couple of hours and then before US opened the floodgates were opened. Just strong selling throughout the day with huge bull spikes in between. Bears accomplished a drop of 23 points from open to...
Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Two legs down from the open to then 3ish legs up to close right under the open price. Market is staying up here which is maximum bullish going into Friday. My target remains 5600 and there is absolutely no reason what so ever, that we can’t print another 100 points up tomorrow. Anything below...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350...
Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly...
Good evening and i hope you are well. This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Bears making lower lows but bulls buy them. That means prominent tails above and below bars and you have to be humble about your scalps. Markets don’t go from big bull to big bear trend and betting on breakouts after mind boggling rallies is low probability and a losing strategy. nasdaq Bears tried all day to get the...
Good evening and i hope you are well. In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start. sp500 In my weekly outlook i said...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote...