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Long AudJpy (11/18) Liquidity gaps "Liquidity gaps" have been proving themselves over and over. Everytime there is a decent sized movement, price always seems to "fill in" or trade through those spots again. I've highlighted two spots in light yellow. (A third was a maybe). It looks like price is likely going to trade in to these "gaps" , I've highlighted. These are concepts learned from ICT. Also, I watched price fill the Weekly open last night and have noted this for a possible trading opp in the future. Any tips on Weekly opening gaps welcomed. In a small position long with a short term target and a longer term target.
Long
by PLAINVI3W
1
The Secrets to Forex & Why You're the Wrong Type of Loser (pt.1)This is a 'many-part' educational series to help turn smooth brains into folded brains. The series reveals the true power of the social and psychological factors shaping markets. This is abstracted from 7,000 hours of research in markets and finance and is a synthesized thesis between my research, John Boyd's work on strategy and adaptability, and David Bohm's theories on emergent behavior. The endstate for the reader will be vastly improved risk management, and novel methods for reducing uncertainty. Part 1: Why 85%+ of Retail Traders are the Wrong Type of Loser The true holy grail of markets.. the risk-free rate of return asset, doesn't exist (even perpetuity coupons aren't risk-free). Risk or uncertainty permeates all aspects of our reality. Managing risk is a fundamental component of all business, law, politics, military affairs, sports, etc. It is essential to any form of competition (which markets are). Virtually every element of any strategy employed anywhere involves risk management. It's more than just money... its everything; your relationships, your happiness, your experiences. Your ability to manage risk and uncertainty will positively correlate to your future quality of life. Why? Because we can't see the future, but we live into the future. Thus, no matter your wealth or political power, uncertainty is still your master. Fear of uncertainty drives your psychology, the psychology of other individuals, organizations, and even nations. And what these entities do, affect you. Even at subconscious levels. Those that fight uncertainty, do so at varying levels of competence. In the world of derivatives, and for our interests its sub-class: forex, speculation against uncertainty shapes most of the price discovery experience visualized on your favorite candlebar chart. What happens on your chart on higher timeframes is the result of speculation; even those with carry trade positions are still speculating about rates and central bank decisions. The only people who aren't speculating are insider trading, which is illegal. It's illegal to not speculate... Make no mistake, in the world of speculation, those that fight the best battles, are the ones who fear uncertainty the most and go to the greatest lengths to conquer it. But we already determined that you can't conquer it, you can't see the future. So what does a 'best battle' or 'meeting halfway' even look like in trading? What do you call a loser that doesn't always lose? Let me stop for a second. You're probably thinking: 'this is obvious, no one wants to lose money, everyone is afraid of what they don't know, the future is unknowable, etc' 'How does this help me make money?' First, you need to understand what you are in this game called Markets. In this oddly balanced game, those with the most to lose often have the biggest say. And vice versa. You are the vice versa, the retail trader. Retail traders comprise 4 categories that often overlap, ie: people who usually do not have a professional background in investing/trading, or a professionally relevant education, or professional connections as a major client or data access, or a high networth. Your competitors are the opposite (they are all those things and more): the winners, the market makers, the whales, the money printers, the ones with the biggest say, the old money, the 'smart' money, whatever cringy title you want to give them. Commercials/institutions/fund managers/portfolio managers/pension managers/etc.. These guys are speculating about the future, just like you. But their speculation is what shapes price discovery and market movement, YOURS DOES NOT. This means that whatever you think the market does or should be, DOES NOT MATTER. Your fibonacci, does not matter. Your head and shoulders shampoo/pattern, does not matter. Your sup/res lines, do not matter. Your moon cycles, do not matter. Your RSI/MACD cross, does not matter. The only thing that matters, is what these commercials/institutions think. That's it. If they think that this head and shoulder on the 4h EURUSD matters, then it matters. If they think the moon cycle this month matters, then it matters. If they think communism is good for business, then it matters... etc. It's exactly as irrational as you might think. Now, with their fiduciary responsibilities, they do have to justify their picks. So moon rune interpretation is usually off the table. But guess what. These guys, despite their immense wealth, their research teams stocked with specialists with PhDs, and all the instant access to prime data in the world.. they still lose. They lose all the time, and they lose big. Eye wateringly big. The vast majority are barely winning 60% of the time, if even that... That's why many are offloading into 'less competitive' money-making opportunities; like underwriting, checking accounts, or alternative investments. Competition itself is too much of a risk for their uncertainty appetite. You have to applaud their level of greed. But to stay on target. Whether your technical system is profitable or not is often a factor of the fitness of your indicators with whatever strategy the commercial is using to execute entry implementation (or combination of models or commercial strategies). And when a few of their models/strategies are losing, it makes it even harder to win at this game (or in those instances, your system might win, whilst you rejoice at the amazing ability of your moon cycles to predict the future). But let's back this up, did some of you notice something off? 60%~ ... That's actually not bad. A trader who's experienced at losing (and yet making a profit in the long run) would kill for an average position win rate like that. Instead of thinking, "how do I avoid losers entirely" Stop wasting whatever brainpower you have. Start thinking, "how do I minimize my losers?" The losing positions are always going to happen, no matter your system. All edges fade, and even a mythical system that won 90% of the time will weaken over months or years. But if you learn to master the art of 'losing,' the overall win rate of your positions can AFFORD to be low. In many cases, it could even be less than 50%, and you could still make a living as a trader/investor. The best and brightest, the commercials and institutions, are barely going 60%. What makes you think you can do better? Does it mean all hope is lost? Not even close. It simply means that you need to focus less on your directional/positional bias strategy (the winrate), and more on your risk management strategy. You have to become the right type of retail trading loser, the 15%~ or so that retail brokers survey as profitable. These guys are losing 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70% of the time, and some of the them are still making big money. It's counter-intuitive but they are the guys winning at losing, and turning that into a living. Your ability to survive losers.. to adapt to uncertainty , is the first secret and the most important step into the weird world of profitable derivative trading. Okay, so you might be thinking: "Again, obvious. Isn't that just 2%? Isn't that just low margin? Only trade Majors? 100 pip SL?" If those were the first things you thought, then we still have a very long way to go. Fortunately, this is just the introduction. See you next week for part 2: 'time as the dominant parameter, fair value, and the 'center of gravity.
Education
by CountofCoins
Party City - Stop, He's Already Dead!Party City has become a perfect example of going quietly into the night. Despite the immense amount of trouble the company is in, and their constant and predictable death spiral, the lack of volume goes to show that the market hasn't noticed Party City on death's doorstep. - Helium supplies being limited means that medical tech companies receive first dibs, leaving retailers like Party City scrambling to find a way to stay afloat (pun intended). - Financial stress from the retail apocalypse and having Amazon as a competitor left the company far too weak to incur a financial trip-up such as the helium shortage. - Short interest of 39% made stock buyback attempts laughable and gave little leeway against the consistent downward spiral. - Irregular price boosts leave short sellers with plenty of opportunity to swing trade, with just enough volume on the options chain to make a consistent profit. - Long term bears will flourish on the upcoming earnings report in November, which will only further reiterate what the market has seemed to ignore among trade war fears and index volatility trades. Current price? $5.00 a share. My personal price target? $2.00 by Halloween.
PShort
by Meowstro
7
Moving averages, levels, reversal candles: Nike has them allCheck out the pullback in Nike (NKE)! The DJIA member broke out to new highs in September on a strong earnings report. It ran to the high 90s and then stalled and retraced almost the entire move. NKE shares are now back to their $90 breakout zone, which was also resistance in April and July. On top of that NKE is holding its 50-day moving average and has had several interesting candlesticks recently: -Oct. 30: Inside day -Oct. 31: Outside day -Nov. 5: Inside day -Nov. 6: Outside day Those are all potential reversal patterns. When you consider that the short-term trend was bearish after a slide in late October, that would suggest stabilization. Not hugely compelling in isolation, but throw in the $90 support line and 50-day moving average and you have some serious confluence on the chart. The macro backdrop is also interesting, with the positive Chinese news today. (Remember China is a key growth market for NKE.) Retail sales are next week and company earnings are shortly before Christmas. Black Friday is still three weeks away. Will the holiday shopping start early in NKE? NKE
NYSE:NKELong
by TradeStation
1
CVS moment of truth is comingCVS has been headed toward the top of its parallel channel. It's currently overbought, so its first test of the channel top may get rejected. However, expect a breakout soon after. CVS is my favorite investment thesis in the entire market right now. The company is opening 1500 HealthHub stores by the end of 2021 and is also completing a merger with Aetna. Its earnings are expected to grow, and the stock is absurdly undervalued. Fair value based on forward P/E for 2021 is something like $95 per share. Even based on this year's P/E, it should be at least $79. (I base these numbers on the Zack's "Price and Consensus" chart, which is one of my favorite tools for fundamental analysis. We'll do an educational episode on this on the "Wall Street Petting Zoo" Youtube channel next week.)
NYSE:CVSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
~10% 3 weeks or less. GPS Earnings run up.After a recent reversal and a history of higher low support GPS is poised to have a 10% run up into earnings. RSI and Stochastic give additional support. With a very solid P/E of 6.67, it's one of the lowest in the retail clothes sector. With minimal Debt/Equity of 0.34 and a Current Ratio of 1.50 We can even choose to hold through earnings for additional gains and with an attractive dividend of 5.73%. GPS is more than just Gap. Their Lulu Lemon-esque brand Athleta is expected to have a record year. Old Navy revenue has also been on the rise.
GLong
by TheGoatTrade
WH Smiths - Travelling towards 2600p?Buy WH Smiths (SMWH.L) WH Smith PLC is a United Kingdom-based retailer in convenience, books and news for travelling customers. The Company is a high street stationer, bookseller and newsagent. The Company operates through two segments: High Street and Travel. The Company's Travel business sells its products to cater for people on the move or in need of a convenience offer. Market Cap: £895Million WH Smith's share price appears to have completed a triple bottom on the move above resistance at 2164p. In recent days the shares have corrected lower to find support at the neckline of the pattern. The projected upside target is at 2436p and beyond that 2604p. The momentum continues to be positive following upbeat results posted on the 17th of October. Higher prices are expected. Stop: 2130p Target 1: 2324p Target 2: 2436p Target 3: 2600p Interested in UK Stocks? Join our free Telegram channel for up to date analysis on the best main market opportunities in the UK right now - t.me
LSE:SMWHLong
by Investamate
Markets took a break, pound tested 1.30"Markets took a break" the lack of high-profile news and frankly difficult weeks contributed to that yesterday. GBP has tested 1.30 against the dollar. As we expected unsuccessfully since a successful test requires positive news from Britain. Johnson’s attempt to accelerate the negotiation process did not bring home the bacon. Parliament refused to re-vote on the approval of the agreement. Motivation: the decision was already made on Saturday and it makes no sense to discuss the same thing again. However, Johnson does not give up trying to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. We are rather sceptical about this and are waiting for a delay for another 2-3 months. Nevertheless, the general feeling of further leaving hangs in the air, so buying pounds in the daily lows area still seems to us to be a good trading idea. In the end, the growth potential has not yet been exhausted. Another promising idea, in our opinion, is the sale of the dollar. But recently, we see more and more reasons to start a downward dollar rally: rates in the US are falling, economic indicators are deteriorating, US exporters continue to suffer due to a strong dollar (in the current reporting season, at least 16 leading companies have complained about problems with profit due to for a strong dollar), in addition and do not forget about the structural problems of the US economy (public debt, chronic trade deficit and trillion budget deficit). So we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Canadian retail sales figures are what we are waiting to come out. Especially because the Canadian dollar has recently strengthened in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar may still grow. On the other hand, weak data on the background of a rather strong overbought Canadian dollar may well give a signal for fixing profits and starting correction in pairs with the Canadian dollar. We are closely watching the news.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Alibaba: Potential rise to the 2019 High.Alibaba is trading inside a very standard 1W Channel Up since June (RSI = 52.639, MACD = 1.760, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) with the Low to High legs symmetrical at +21%. If the current leg is completed on equal strength then the peak (+21%) will reach 195.50 which is the 2019 High. So if the Higher High trend line of the Channel Up breaks, be ready to extend your long positions to 195.50. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
NYSE:BABALong
by InvestingScope
1
Ebay: Long term Buy Signal.Ebay is coming off a strong rebound last week on the 1D MA200. 1D is again gradually turning bullish (RSI = 50.474, ADX = 33.642, Highs/Lows = 0.3699, CCI = 102.4213) as it approaches the 1D MA50. What is more interesting is that last time Ebay touched the 1D MA200 after a Golden Cross formation (took place last March) was in 2016/ 2017. The rebound was extended then to a new Higher High. Based on that we have turned bullish again on Ebay targeting 43.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
NASDAQ:EBAYLong
by InvestingScope
JCP - Trending Nicely Despite Company ProblemsJ. C. Penney Co., Inc. is a holding company, which through its subsidiary, J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc., engages in the selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and website. It offers appliances, handbags, shoes, jewelry, shoes, and clothes. The company was founded by James Cash Penney in April 1902 and is headquartered in Plano, TX. SHORT INTEREST 126.97M 09/13/19 P/E Current -1.14 P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items) -1.05
JLong
by DEXWireNews
Bed Bath and Beyond after hours earnings playBBBY reported mixed earnings results, which has the after hours price hovering right around its closing price for the day. Adjusted earnings beat slightly, while revenue and sales missed slightly. Guidance was also a bit mixed, since the revenue forecast is slightly lower than expected ($11.4 billion actual vs. $11.77 billion estimate), but the earnings forecast beats analyst estimates by a significant margin ($2.11 per share at the midpoint, vs. the $1.81 per share estimate). On the strength of the earnings forecast, I'd think think this should end the day slightly up tomorrow. This news isn't a really strong catalyst, but the stock is cheap at the current price, and this could help start to reverse the long-term downtrend. However, given how pessimistic the market is right now, this could totally drop instead. Watch the after-hours and pre-market price action and be careful out there.
NASDAQ:BBBYLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
SFIX buy the dip and hold for a couple quartersStitch Fix is down over 8% after hours. It beat analyst earnings estimates by 75%, although it slightly missed analyst estimates of revenue and customer growth (an almost negligible difference). The midpoint of its earnings guidance for 2020 was slightly above analyst estimates (again, an almost negligible difference). The reason Stitch Fix is down is that on the conference call, the company CEO predicted a "soft" start in Q1 2020. Stitch Fix's marketing team noticed that summer is their strongest season, so they spent less capital marketing for the winter. To me this sounds like smart and efficient capital allocation, especially given Stitch Fix's steep marketing costs. In the short term, however, it means that Stitch Fix's stock price could languish this winter, and then recover in the spring and summer. A couple thoughts. First, Stitch Fix has short-term support around 18.24, and I think tomorrow it will rally on the strength of its earnings beat. So this could be a great one-day swing trade if you can get an entry near the support level. Mid-term the price could fall as low as $15 per share during the slow winter season, which would be a great price to buy and hold for a couple quarters to benefit from the seasonal upswing in summer. For free news analysis and educational videos, check out my new beginner investing channel on YouTube, "Wall Street Petting Zoo!"
NASDAQ:SFIXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Walmart Readying Itself for EMA Correction After Island ReversalNYSE:WMT has been beaten around lately after a report found they were mistreating a group of 178 female workers. After a gap down, more selling off, and then a rebound just above the widely used 200-EMA, it is now seemingly gearing up for a a bullish reversal out of an island reversal chart pattern. Green line: island reversal trajectory Orange rectangle: Gap zone with necessary breach for bullish confirmation. I would not enter a bullish position on NYSE:WMT without seeking this confirmation first.
NYSE:WMTLong
by DoozyTrader
Trapping Breakout and Retracement TradersThis is by no means to be anti-breakout/anti-retracement. I find these entry methods as a valid entry method. As valid as it is, the triggers for such entry method are mostly obvious hence easily to be taken advantage of by the institutional traders. For breakout traders, how these banks would trap is the normal fake breakouts. We all know this as it is a guarantee that it is part of a retail trader, to be the receiving end of this stop hunt. Even if the breakout turns out to be the start of a trend, the institution would tap into the breakout traders stop-loss first (if there is not enough liquidity) before the move continues away from the breakout level. For retracement traders (who prefers the price to retrace first upon the breakout before entry) are not safe with this stop hunt as well. Whatever triggers it was, the stop loss for this traders tends to reside the recent highs or lows of the underlying move. In this example, let's assume the trigger was a bearish engulfing candle. The stop loss would normally be a few pips above the high of the candle. This is just my personal preference with all due respect for those who trades breakouts and retracements (and I am sure some of you made tons of profits trading this way, I just can't make it work and I never able to be comfortable with it, for these reasons I tend to fade breakouts and avoid "retracement" and "continuation" trade triggers respectively. Read my other posts on that has titles like "Navigating the Market" and other educational posts which I share how I navigate the market to eliminate the noise and finding the optimal time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Tesco - Bouncing from the 61.8% Fibonacci supportBUY – TESCO (TSCO) Tesco PLC (Tesco) is a retail company. The Company is engaged in the business of Retailing and associated activities (Retail) and Retail banking and insurance services. Fundamentals It’s been a tough few months for Tesco shareholders with the shares having slumped over 13% from the 2019 high. The business has embarked on a massive overhaul over the past 5 years to make the operation a lot more efficient, which has put the company in a good position overall. The operating margin is continuing to rise, and management believe 4% is achievable in the short term. The company looks set to maintain its position in the market and continue to grow its earnings. Best Broker Target Price: 285p (Deutsche Bank 19/06/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 230p (Goldman Sachs 02/04/2019) Technical Analysis 2019 started off so well for Tesco share holders with the shares rising from 187p to 254p in the space of just over 4 months. The recent decline from those highs has not been so impressive, but some support appears to be forming around the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at 212.7p. There have been a number of bullish candle around this price, which is an indication that buyers are returning. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 215-225p Stop: 210p Target: 250p
LSE:TSCOLong
by Investamate
3