Earnings
AAPL breaks below its 1 year upward trendAAPL has recently broken below its 1 year upward signaling more selling to come. This pivotal event comes at a time when
Overall market sentiment is showing extreme greed (selling soon follows this level)
Recent rally have been prompted by one stocks excellent earnings (NVDA alone cant hold up the economy)
AAPL has been trend down rather steadily for a month
The long term support being broken indicates more selling likely to come.
Beautiful Breakout and strong fundamentals - AppLovin NASDAQ:APP has an outstanding chart in my opinion. I've been following this stock for years now and waiting for the right time to get in. Although it's already rallied 70% YTD, the momentum this particular stock has combined with it's increasingly impressive earnings reports make it a strong buy.
They have been steadily increasing cash flow on top of accelerating earnings growth. The last 3 quarters it's beat analyst estimates and it's my personal opinion that we are in the midst of a era where web apps as well as mobile apps are being developed very rapidly, increasingly by individuals and smaller companies.
Net Income, Margins and Returns on Equity and Assets are all increasing. No wonder it's more than quadrupled since it's bottom of $9.00
Think of Streamlit, for you coders, and Snowflake's NYSE:SNOW increasing presence in owning these, and similar technologies. NASDAQ:APP is operating in a similar space and they really offer it all when it comes to building applications for your business.
The estimate revisions are surprising and look very strong going into next year.
See the Zack's Estimate Revisions below. (Current Quarter/Next Current Year/Next)
CQ NQ CY NY
Current 0.56 0.59 2.48 3.08
7 Days Ago 0.56 0.59 2.48 3.08
30 Days Ago 0.33 0.31 1.56 1.71
60 Days Ago 0.33 0.31 1.58 1.71
90 Days Ago 0.33 0.31 1.58 1.63
FSR is driving to its earnings LONGFSR is shown here on a 30 minute chart on the move up in the approach to earnings on February
29th. For comparison purposes only TSLA is shown sideways with the purple line. FSR has
started a VWAP band breakout into the area of the mean anchored VWAP where it could pick up
institutionally based trader interest. The growing volumes of trading are obvious and lend
further support to taking a position. I will long long here with both shares and options
as a pre-earnings play. The call options for mid-March are $ 6.00 per contract.
SNOW - buy the disappointment discount sale LONGSNOW beat the earnings estimates by 150% and slightly exceeded revenue estimates. Price
dropped in printing a bear flag in a 22% move yesterday at the close. Buying from the bottom
has begun and I have the idea that I should join. My pre-earnings play was closed going into the
earnings in the high liquidity that proceeds it. I got my ask price on that position. The chart
shows today's buyng volume and volatility. On the slow resumption of bullish price action, I have
taken a long trade from the near bottom after this morning's reversal and call options
ITM for the July monthy.
VERX ATH on Earnings LONGVERX on the 15 minute chart demonstrates printing a high tight bull flag pattern in its
bullrun after the earnings report was a two line beat much like the one a quarter ago.
VERX has impressed traders including this one who got in on the ride early. I will trade
this like others recently with a similar pattern. I will hold during the consolidation and
watch for a break above the flag regression channel. I will add upon the break and
set a trailing stop loss of 5% upon a rise of another 5% keeping the profits safe while
underway. See my ideas on SOUN DUOL, VTYX and a few others. Review the link to
the pattern description here. See also my swing long trade ideas for this sector XBI and LABU.
COINBASE(COIN)/BTC CorrelationIn the past months investors have been watching carefully the recovery of Coinbase as one of the biggest partners in the financial industry as crytocurrencies seem to recover from the last downturn. Many investors, traders and fans of crypto have been watching with a lot of hype the launch of the ETFs; which hasn't resulted in what most of them expected: a massive bull run as these instruments got green light from public authorities.
Cathie Wood's ARK investment instruments have been continuously dumping Coinbase shares in the last months, possibly to balance the holdings of the ETF ARKW(ark-funds.com), and the crypto-exchange shows 2 interesting things: certain degree of correlation with BTC and extraordinary earnings.
However the last earnings should have been fuelling this stock but they didn't due to weaknesses in their fundamentals and tough valuations with shallow price targets. If done carefully, COIN can be used to track small spikes in price and short trends in BTC and ETH. The future could be promising for Coinbase, but from a macroeconomic standpoint we are not out of the woods at all.
My observations tell me that the markets like to be bearish on COIN, but for short term wave riding, it could be worth it - just make sure you have appropriate risk management when doing so.
Plug Power was a top loser this quarter, falling -15.1%.The last earnings report on September 30 showed earnings per share of 49 cents, missing the estimate of $1.25. P/B Ratio (3.601) is normal, around the industry mean (3.775). P/E Ratio (50.264) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.885). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.334). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. TDW's P/S Ratio (4.063) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.409). With 536.06K shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 3.72B.
TDW - rise+48% to 73 cents per share on March 01The last earnings report on September 30 showed earnings per share of 49 cents, missing the estimate of $1.25. P/B Ratio (3.601) is normal, around the industry mean (3.775). P/E Ratio (50.264) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.885). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.334). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. TDW's P/S Ratio (4.063) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.409). With 536.06K shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 3.72B.
Remember Expensify!? I remember when this company had a Super Bowl commercial. I remember its IPO. I am also familiar with its platform, which I still use to this day and was surprised to see how far its fallen.
Can it ever make a come back?
A few things stand out to me:
The company has cleared its debt, a significant move that shifts its financial landscape from leveraged to liquidity-rich. With its balance sheet now boasting only cash, earning steady interest from 5% treasuries and CDs. Furthermore, the company still has an active $41 million stock buyback program that has not used. What are they waiting for?
Financially, Expensify projects a free cash flow (FCF) of $10-12 million this year. When you consider the current market price, the stock is trading at roughly 10 times its FCF, significantly lower than the industry standard for tech companies, which often hovers around 30 times FCF.
Decisions, decisions!
Always do your own research. Some of my trades are great, others are bad! This one has my attention.
SNX Earnings PlaySNX is in a medium term uptrend, squeezing (bullish) and has earnings in 3 weeks. Options volatility is in the sweet spot and should rise a good 10% into earnings. Average 21 day price gain over the last 4 quarters has been $4.55. I'm looking to buy call butterflies centered at the $105 strike. I think I'll also look at the unbalanced downside PUT fly for a credit (Buy 1 100, Sell 3 @ 95, Buy 2 @ 90). Basically, a long PUT butterfly + a short PUT credit spread to pay for it.
NVAX rises impending an earnings report LONGToday NVAX is selling for a tiny fraction of its all-time high as shown in a previous idea. Earnings
is coming this upcoming week. This week NVAX news release showed it had settled a years long
litigation over a failed COVID. In the face of earnings around the corner, was this news release
a coincidence or instead a case of excellent executive and legal timing? I will skip the
conspiracy discussion.
On the chart, NVAX's bullish momentum is clear on its face. A price rise of 22% from a stock
that has been stuck in deeply undervalued territory for a significant time period is remarkable.
I have bought far out of the money call options into 2025 and 2026 some only this past month.
Those from this month are now up over 250% with 11 and 23 months to go to expiration.
I see NVAX as a risky penny medical stock with a high reward potential relative to the
risk. It is a potential buy-out candidate and bankruptcy is less likely. The rich uncle is
MRNA but the richer uncle in PFE might gain some interest. The wisest of capitalists buy out
the competition when there is an opportunity and do not worry about the government crying
monopoly when life-saving and life-extending medical products are involved. Time will tell.
I expect insane profits.
DIS moves higher in realtive strength LONGDisney had an excellent earnings report last week. Today it is moving off its support of the
moving average cloud on the chart and going higher on a day when the general market is
sideways at best. A table shows its strength as compared with other commonly traded stocks.
I will take a long trade here and perhaps hold it until the next earnings.
NXU & Lynx: Could we see a merge/acquisition in the future?Nxu's Strategic Partnership with Lynx Motors
Nxu, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXU), a company specializing in innovative EV charging and energy storage solutions, has announced a strategic partnership and investment in Lynx Motors. This partnership is outlined in a letter of intent (LOI) and represents a significant step in Nxu's commitment to electrification and the future of electric vehicles (EVs).
Key Details of the Partnership
Strategic Investment: Nxu's investment in Lynx Motors is structured as a share exchange, with $3 million in Nxu shares being exchanged for $3 million in Lynx shares. This investment will be reflected as an asset on Nxu's balance sheet.
Board Representation: As part of the transaction, Nxu will receive a seat on Lynx's Board of Directors, indicating a deep level of involvement and influence in Lynx's strategic direction.
Collaborative Development: Nxu aims to assist Lynx in leveraging its vehicle and charging technology to expedite the development of electrified products. Lynx Motors is known for reimagining classic vehicles with modern amenities and powertrains, blending tradition with innovation.
Financial Support: Lynx will issue an interest-free promissory note of $250,000 to Nxu in exchange for a $250,000 bridge loan, further solidifying the financial collaboration between the two companies.
Professional Analysis
Complementary Strengths: This partnership leverages Nxu's expertise in EV charging and energy storage with Lynx's focus on electrifying classic vehicles. It's a strategic alignment that combines technological innovation with a unique market niche.
Market Positioning: Lynx's approach to electrifying popular classic cars, coupled with its robust reservation list, suggests strong market demand. Nxu's involvement could accelerate Lynx's path to significant revenue and profitability.
Impact on Nxu's Market Compliance: The partnership is a step towards Nxu's compliance with Nasdaq's listing standards, potentially increasing shareholder equity and market confidence.
Future Prospects: The collaboration between Nxu and Lynx, especially in the realm of EVs, aligns with the broader trend towards electrification in the automotive industry. This partnership could position both companies favorably in a rapidly evolving market.
Conclusion
The strategic partnership between Nxu and Lynx Motors represents a synergistic collaboration that could enhance both companies' positions in the EV market. By combining Nxu's charging technology with Lynx's innovative approach to vehicle electrification, this partnership holds the potential for significant advancements in the EV sector, offering promising prospects for both companies and their stakeholders.
HPQ - fall -9.68% to 81 cents per share on February 28The last earnings report on October 31 showed earnings per share of 90 cents, meeting the estimate of 90 cents. P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (5.135). P/E Ratio (8.834) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.053). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.119) is also within normal values, averaging (56.300). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.536) is also within normal values, averaging (10.021). With 9.43M shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 28.54B.
TJX - rise+8.74% to $1.12 per share on February 28The last earnings report on October 31 showed earnings per share of $1.03, beating the estimate of 99 cents. TJX's P/B Ratio (16.556) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.038). P/E Ratio (28.031) is within average values for comparable stocks, (103.022). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.960) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.334). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.207) is also within normal values, averaging (2.053). With 4.69M shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 113.26B.
HCP runs to earnings on March 4th LONGHCP is a computer infrastructure company. The December earnings were a 160% beat. Given the
quicky evolving AI supertrend, the earnings might be expected to be another big beat. However,
that could be baked into the price. However, the explosive volatility of the last trading session
say otherwise. I will take a long trade here and chase this stock. I see it as pulling out of a
pullback and continuing on higher time frames.