AEHR Earnings Swing TradeUsing PoC, trendlines and the developing H&S pattern on the daily to set up a swing trade position.
Taking advantage of the overreaction to the positive earnings on Jan 10th.
Earnings
Controlled Sideways Trends Ahead of EarningsThe Giant Banks and Credit Card companies benefit the most from the Federal Reserve Board's overnight interest rate hikes. As the FRB increases its lending rate, it allows big banks and credit companies to increase their interest rates to consumers, small businesses, etc. That usually means higher revenues.
NYSE:V is in a sideways trend that is not as consistent as would be ideal ahead of its earnings report in about 3 weeks. However, HFTs are aware of the tendency for credit card companies to prosper during high interest-rate markets.
Study the candlestick patterns: Note the quick reversal back down after a higher price level was reached. Note the rebound the same day when price dropped out of the lows of this sideways trend. There is control in this pattern which is typical of Professional trading activity.
TRUWORTHS INT (TRU)TRUWORTHS - The current price is now testing the lower trend line within a broadening wedge pattern. Anticipating potential support at the trend line; however, a break below it might signal a significant decline, offering a potential short play.
It's worth noting that in the 50 days leading up to the past six earnings release dates, there has been an average upward movement of over 20% following a period of downward price movement. Considering the current testing of the lower trend line, it could serve as support for another upward trend.
UnitedHealth Pushes Highs Before EarningsUnitedHealth has consolidated for almost two years, and now some investors may expect its longer-term uptrend to continue.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the basing pattern over the course of 2023. Notice the lower lows in the first half, followed by higher lows in the second half. That may suggest buyers have regained control since the summer.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in September. That can also reflect bullishness over the longer term.
Third, UNH recently bounced at its peak from July. Did old resistance become new support?
Fourth, the health insurer has remained below its record weekly close of $551.24. But this week could bring a catalyst for a potential breakout because earnings are due on Friday morning. (Notice how the stock jumped following its last two quarterly reports.)
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#MINT. French Net Net stock with big upside.October's Earnings saw #MINT fall into a negative Enterprise Value with the business now valued less than it's cash and assets on a per share basis.
The business is growing with a positive ROE and ROIC and has a huge runway in front of it.
It's unusual to find such a business in net net territory and I like that insiders continue to buy shares in the business.
Buying at around the 3.5 Euro price is a bet I'm willing to take.
Over-speculated Patterns Heading Into Earnings SeasonNYSE:JPM is the last Bank that has been able to hold onto its Dow 30 component status. It is running up on a combination of buybacks and ETF development for Dow 30 index components.
The stock is over-speculated heading into the earnings season. Volume Oscillators show the extreme pattern clearly. So even minimal weakness in the earnings report could cause an HFT trigger. It might surprise either way.
Some of its growth in 2023 was due to the regional bank debacle when JPM chose certain small banks to target for a silent hostile takeover.
Descending triangle Smart Money Bluff Many ideas claim through a pattern that a descending triangle will bring a big BTC fall.
I have no doubt this is a smart money bluff. If I had to pick from a pattern and price action, I’d go with price action, it weighs more.
Learning patterns is one of the basic elementary teachings, we learn in trading. Which is good I’m not against it, but I would rather use it for guidance and never for buying or selling.
It’s smart money who create these patterns for us to see. As general traders buy, smart money knows how much in quantities to sell in order to create a pattern. Buying and selling accomplish a pattern. Therefore, I would rather not rest assured on a pattern.
This is a 4 hour chart and I’ve added the one day chart bullish green trend. Both point in different directions; these are hidden pivots, which are calculated.
Bullish up reversal, wick to wick confirms a reversal with a hoping breakout trend.
So I’m going to trust price action then to lean on a descending triangle.
Remember, this chart can take place right away or may take its time. It doesn’t mean it’s gonna follow the trend lines. The way the price lines point out, it may zigzag up and down, but will reach its destination.
Zigzag because many traders will sell for losses. Therefore, we will have some dips due to panic but will eventually recover plus BTC will have much more value. While traders sell, smart money will buy certain quantities in order to help recover BTC.
Remember, it doesn’t benefit smart money if they dip BTC very low because they know many traders will jump in the trade to even say many are on standby.
I’ve expressed myself with facts so you can rest assured things are still on board. We may have some delays but will make its way up sooner than we think.
Bajaj Finserv Ltd. - Management Quality and Economic MoatNSE:BAJAJFINSV
Bajaj Finserv Ltd, a leading Indian financial services company, has showcased notable management quality and developed a significant economic moat. The company operates through its controlling stakes in various businesses, including Bajaj Finance Ltd. (BFL), a large and profitable NBFC.
Management Quality:
Strategic Growth and Diversification: Bajaj Finserv has strategically diversified its business into lending, asset management, wealth management, and insurance. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations in any single sector.
Financial Performance: The company has demonstrated strong financial performance over the years. Its operating income grew significantly from ₹6,022 crore in FY2014 to ₹82,071 crore in FY2023. The adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) also showed a healthy growth trajectory, increasing from ₹9.7 in FY2014 to ₹46.5 in FY2023.
Capital Adequacy and Asset Management: Bajaj Finserv maintains robust capital adequacy, ensuring a solid financial foundation and ability to invest in growth opportunities. Its subsidiary, BFL, has an AUM (Assets Under Management) increase of 29% to ₹197,452 crore in FY2022.
Economic Moat:
Market Position and Sectoral Importance: Bajaj Finserv, through its subsidiaries, has become a vital part of India's financial sector. BFL alone constitutes a significant portion of the NBFC sector's assets.
Customer Base and Reach: With a franchise of 57.6 million customers and an expansive distribution network, the company has a deep penetration in the market. This wide reach is crucial for sustaining long-term growth and maintaining a competitive edge.
Digital Transformation: The company’s focus on digital transformation and omnichannel strategies enhances customer experience and operational efficiency. This positions Bajaj Finserv favorably in an increasingly digital financial landscape.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
Strengths:
Strong growth in business volume anticipated by analysts.
High profitability with outstanding net margins.
Frequent positive revisions of sales forecasts and strong analyst recommendations.
Agile and innovative response to external events like demonetization, GST implementation, and the pandemic.
Weaknesses:
High valuations in earnings multiples and balance sheet size.
Limited generosity in shareholder compensation.
Conclusion
In summary, Bajaj Finserv Ltd's management quality is characterized by its strategic diversification, robust financial performance, and effective capital management. Its economic moat is reinforced by its significant market position, vast customer base, and digital transformation initiatives. The company's strengths in maintaining high growth and profitability are counterbalanced by its high valuation levels and a conservative approach to shareholder compensation.
Could mixed earnings report help Nike downside?Nike's highly anticipated earnings report could set the stage for a short-term correction with long-term highs of $140 being estimated by investment bank analysts.
🎄Merry Christmas🎄(Token name from you, Analysis with me)🎁🎁🎁🎄Merry Christmas!
💫Happy Holidays! I hope all of your Christmas wishes come true.
🎁I thought to myself how I can repay your kindness and support , so I decided to analyze some of the most requested Tokens for analysis for you this Christmas so that maybe I can give you a Gift in this way.
✏️If you consider analyzing a Token , please write me the Name of the Token in the Comment of this post and I will try to analyze 2 to 3 tokens for you daily , I will be happy to write the Reason for choosing the Token you want in the comment .
📈 Tokens that get the most "🔺 Agree 🔺" under this post will be Prioritized for analysis .
👍 Agree : The sign of "🔺" is under each comment.
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: Please respect each other's opinions, and if you have a different idea, express it with respect so that we can help each other progress.
🔄If you like, share this post with your friends so that we can have their opinions. Please don't forget to ✅LIKE✅ this post.
🙏In the end, I hope that this Christmas will be the best moment for you, that you will always be happy, and that we will honor the place of those who are not with us in this world this Christmas.
GBP USD SELL entry confirm, if DXY GO BULLISH GBP USD SELL entry confirm, if DXY BULLISH
Stay updated and we are quick to connect with more details of the day.
Gold Buy LevelsIn this Picture I will show Buy Levels of Gold High Risk Low Risk and full Margin believe me I will trade also in this setup but market will respects all these levels 80 to 110 pips in just hour or 2
and this is H1 hour timeframe kindly wait for level and don't trade on our own don't loss money and enjoy Christmas Holiday we will meet tomorrow inshallah
CTAS “Cintas” for earningsI believe CTAS “Cintas” will fall for earnings due to the declining workforce in America especially with theory of AI threatening a significant amount of jobs in our near future. I can only see them lowering their forward guidance in this type of economic environment. Also forming a head and shoulders pattern on all charts up to the 1D. Let’s see how this plays out!
FDX "FedEx" EarningsI see FDX forming a Bullish Pennant after surpassing a 52-week high and going into earnings. We have also seen record highs in online sales which signify an exceptional increase in Shipping/Transportation. I see this benefitting both FDX and UPS for their upcoming earnings reports and forward guidance. Let's see how this plays out!
MU looks bullish pre earnings I tried analyzing MU and I feel it is bullish. It is not a current market price trade as risk is way down near 73 but target is 87.
I am long and will continue to hold it as I see $88++ coming.
FRONTLINE PLC Long - Dollar Cost AverageThis is an analysis of Frontline PLC - a Norwegian oil transportation company, the following is strictly my own personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.
Key numbers:
Dividend yield expected 2024 - 17%
P/B - 2.03
P/E - 5.41
Market cap 47 178 MNOK (4.5 BUSD)
Analyst estimates:
Analyst estimate average for FRO is 267.5 NOK which is equivalent to a 32.3% increase from todays price.
Key information:
FRO has had a significant increase in price the past 6 months, and analysts estimate an increase in both dividends and growth for the company in the coming years.
Technical analysis:
FRO made a bullish divergence on the 195-200 support level recently, after a significant sell off the past few weeks the stock did not even drop as a result of dividends being paid out to stock holders, and I see this as a sign of the stock being about to reverse the downwards trend and begin to move back towards my price target of 260-280.
Strategy:
I am currently in possession of FRO shares with a GAV of 150 NOK/Share as well as increasing my position on friday for 200 NOK/Share. I am looking to hold these shares until price reaches 260-300 NOK/Share depending on coming events. If the price keeps moving down, I will look to hold my position until the stock reaches my price target regardless, as the dividend payout is significant. This might change if significantly bearish news arise, but I do not see that as a high probability at this moment.
If price reaches my profit target, I will again look at analyst estimates and given there is no change I will exit my position for a significant gain. If analyst estimates increase I will either close part of my position or hold it until bearish divergence on the 4H timeframes.
wait until is readyIn the week of December 12, 2023, the EUR/USD pair is subject to several influences:
- The EUR/USD is under pressure, potentially facing further losses, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a different stance than the US Federal Reserve. It is currently stabilizing around 1.0780 but has previously dipped to the support level at 1.0723, suggesting bearish control.
- The euro has weakened recently, influenced by the cautious repricing of the ECB's policy expectations, with the pair moving back to the middle of the year's trading range between 1.0500 and 1.1000.
- The pair has fallen below the 200-day moving average, a significant bearish technical signal; however, the weight of this technical setup might be moderated by upcoming economic data events.
- Expectations of ECB interest rate cuts and the Fed's policy decisions will play crucial roles in determining the currency pair's movement. Any deviation from expected policy could sway the pair significantly.
- Technically, the trend is bearish, with key support levels at 1.0700, 1.0655, and 1.0580. Resistance lies at 1.1000, which would need to be broken for a bullish trend reversal
The direction of the EUR/USD pair will likely be shaped by the outcomes of the central bank meetings and the announcement of US inflation numbers. The technical indicators are pointing to bearish sentiment, but the fundamental events mentioned could lead to volatility and potential trend changes.
Gitlab (GTLB: NASDAQ)#GitLab ( NASDAQ:GTLB ) showcases robust Q3 2023 performance with a 32% YoY revenue growth. Boasting increased adoption and positive fiscal year guidance, GitLab maintains a bullish outlook above $53.00-$54.00, targeting an upside potential of $88.00-$90.00.
#GTLB #StockTrading
Crypto101 - How to Make Money with DeFiHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher.
If you’ve been following me on TradingView for a while, you’ll now that I’m a believer – a believer in the promise of blockchain. One of the principals of this promise is to move away from centrally controlled banking systems. This would eventually include the act of saving and earning interest for the money that you leave in the capable hands of your banker (who also gets to decide whether or not you qualify for loans). Currently, you need to give up all of your personal information to open a bank account and furthermore you are seriously undercut in the returns / interest rate that you will be receiving (to name only two of many problems with the system). For example, where I reside, the most common interest on a savings account is 5% annually, whereas the interest on your credit card is 19.5% annually.
Before we continue, familiarize yourself with these Key Terms:
TVL – Total Value Locked in the platform
DEX - A decentralized exchange. Peer-to-peer marketplace where transactions occur directly between crypto traders like Coinbase and Binance
Blockchain – A unique way of coding that is open for anyone to use, many believe that web3 will be built on top this kind of coding
DeFi – Decentralized Finance such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins
dApp – Software like apps that work on the basis of blockchain code and thus apps that accommodate cryptocurrency such as UniSwap and NFT Market places
LP tokens - New liquidity pool tokens. LP tokens represent a crypto liquidity provider's share of a pool, and the crypto liquidity provider remains entirely in control of the token. For example, if you contribute $10 USD worth of assets to a Balancer pool that has a total worth of $100, you would receive 10% of that pool's LP tokens.
APY - Annual Percentage Yield, think of it as yearly interest in percentage
Smart Contracts — Electronic, digital contracts coded to integrate with dApps. Automated financial agreements between two or more parties once the pre-determined terms of the contract is reached
With the rise of Blockchain, Crypto and then Decentralized apps, yield farming was born to address some of the banking system's limits. Or at least, that would be in the perfect world. Yield farming is the process of using DeFi to maximize returns. Users lend or borrow crypto on a DeFi platform and earn cryptocurrency in return for their services. This works for both parties, because yield farmers provide liquidity to various token pairs and you earn rewards in cryptocurrencies. However, yield farming can be a risky practice due to price volatility, rug pulls, smart contract hacks etc.
Yield farming allows investors to earn interest which is called ‘yield’ by putting coins or tokens in a dApp, which is an application (coded software) that integrates with blockchain code. Examples of dApps include crypto wallets, exchanges and many more. Yield farmers generally use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to lend, borrow or stake coins to earn interest and speculate on price swings. Yield farming across DeFi is facilitated by smart contracts.
Let’s take a closer look at the different types of yield farming:
Liquidity provider: You deposit two coins to a DEX to provide trading liquidity. Exchanges charge a small fee to swap the two tokens which is paid to liquidity providers. This fee can sometimes be paid in new liquidity pool (LP) tokens.
Lending: Coin or token holders can lend crypto to borrowers through a smart contract and earn yield from interest paid on the loan.
Borrowing: Farmers can use one token as collateral and receive a loan of another. Users can then farm yield with the borrowed coins. This way, the farmer keeps their initial holding, which may increase in value over time, while also earning yield on their borrowed coins.
Staking: There are two forms of staking in the world of DeFi. The main form is on proof-of-stake blockchains, where a user is paid interest to pledge their tokens to the network to provide security. The second is to stake LP tokens earned from supplying a DEX with liquidity. This allows users to earn yield twice, as they are paid for supplying liquidity in LP tokens which they can then stake to earn more yield.
Yield farmers who want to increase their yield output can also use more complex tactics. For example, yield farmers can constantly shift their cryptos between multiple loan platforms to optimize their gains. Pro Tip: Use a High-Speed, Anonymous VPN. This lets you securely access the internet in an untraceable way. If you’re a cryptocurrency trader, you may want to remain anonymous or mask your IP address to another location.
With all of the above mentioned, the first step would be to determine your needs or interests and thereafter, opening an account or accounts. A few popular places to start exploring include:
1. Quint – Voted one of the best yield farming crypto platforms for 2022
2. Uniswap - Second-largest decentralized exchange (DEX) behind Curve Finance
3. YouHodler – Worldwide Exchange with yield farming
4. eToro – Regulated platform offering crypto interest tools
5. Crypto.com – Great platform for earning a high APY on Stablecoins
6. BlockFi – Popular Platform for Bitcoin yields. BlockFi was one of the first platforms to launch its own crypto credit card. The BlockFi Rewards Visa Signature Credit Card earns up to 2% back in the cryptocurrency of your choice and doesn't charge an annual fee
7. Coinbase – Top-Rated yield-generating platform for beginners
8. DeFi Swap – Overall best DeFi yield farming platform 2022 , earning up to 75% APY on DeFi coins
9. AQRU – Voted one of the best crypto Yield farming platforms for 2022
10. Aave - Reigning DeFi king in terms of total value locked
Note that the above is in no specific order. On the chart, you will see some fast facts on some of the options that these platforms offer. This is also not a shill, and I am not currently participating in any of the above mentioned. This is just intended as an easy introduction to another branch of what the world of Blockchain and DeFi has to offer.
I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up to support all the efforts that went into this post.
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More downside on earnings?NYSE:NIO seems to be resting on $7.2 support and making a continuation pattern which could push the stock downwards. Even if the earnings try to push up the stock, it could result in a fake-out.
Stay cautious next week!
$IMGN - Short it (Early analysis, the stock still can rally up)IMGN - Received ELAHERE approval with conditions. The condition is that they have to prove their claims with a single arm pivot.
ELAHERE - Approved on Nov 2022, market reacted negative. (Opened 6.27, closed 5.00)
Since approval the stock slid down to $4.00
Drug is expected to increase the longevity from 12 months to 16 months, for patient with ovarian cancer (specifically on the Platinum resistance cancer).
The drug sale price is $6,500, cost of production is $450. Leaves them a healthy margin of 93%.
The treatment according to article is 4 doses. ($26,000 per patient)
So Why short it? READ>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Although Ovarian cancer affect nearly 19,700 patient yearly. Small market for the treatment in general. This product is targeted at platinum-resistant disease. Thus making it a niche.
Assumption - Lets say this treatement is suggested for 50% of patient nearly $256MUSD yearly Revenue. But that is when it is fully approved by FDA, Unconditional approval .
Income Statement
29MUSD in a quarter = 1115 units sale of Elahere approximately. (Understand that the income is not just from the sale, it includes other licenses and deals).
Company burns about 93MUSD in a quarter (Operation Expense 2023 March) - 372MUSD per year. This proves the company needs more debt and Share issue or Debt Issues even when the drug is fully approved by FDA (We are not here yet). In addition, the important drug MIRASOL is still under Phase 3 (Need money for this, a lot of it).
Dilution of Shares
Previously company dilutes shares at 24% rates yoy (year over year).
With the recent pump, the company added 26MUSD shares @$12.50. Very Common for bio tech to issue below trading value to attract investors.
Debt
As of March, company secured $175MUSD in debt. $75M issued right away, $50M issued later, can be $100M if the expected sale of Elahere is met (Pretty Much). I dont see a problem here.
Maturity - April 2028. With only interest due for 36 months (3 years) @10.25% = Expense of 18MUSD Per year for 3 years.
In the next 12 months the company needs 101MUSD of debt repayment. Cannot borrow or role over more debts, due to the interest rates. This again shows the dilution was absolutely needed.
Coming to Recent price action
May 1st - Earning reported - initial sale of Elahere and revenue.
May 3rd - Company is Marketing Elahere with the initial approval and adding data. The news reported on May 9th is another mirror copy of the same.
Analyst rating
May 3rd - Piper Sandler increased the target to $16. - Makes the first entry price to be $16 for a short. (Note that the company will boost the share price by pumping, with the newly acquired wealth).
UNDERGROUND OPERATION - I.E., Companies spending on marketing, Paying media networks, etc has significatly increased. Evident from the coverage of stocks news. If the company want to sell Elahere, they would be advertising the product. Wont they?
Over all, this is nothing but another dilution from IMGN.
IMGN will run this campagin through promoters to clear out the 26MUSD shares to flood the market.
Even with Elahere going strong, they would not have enough money to cover the operation.
Elahere is still needs marketing, and awareness campagin has to start - 25MUSD expense in general.
RISK FACTOR from Company
We have outstanding indebtedness in the form of a term loan and may incur additional indebtedness in the future, which could adversely affect our financial position and prevent us from implementing our business strategy.
Significant expected operating expenses to commercialize ELAHERE
Significant expected operating expenses to conduct research and development activities and to potentially commercialize our portfolio
Noncancelable in-process and future manufacturing obligations, including commercial supply of ELAHERE
Risk for Traders
1. Company has a ton of money for this quarter, so they could keep boosting the stock price by additional marketing events or campagin.
2. Realizing a downward target would take 3- 6 months. As the stocks wont erode at rapid pace.
Disclosures
- Investing involve risk, so invest only what you are willing to lose.-
- This & future update is just an analysis, not an advice.-
- I do not hold a short position at the time of publishing, will evaluate and take short position accordingly-
