Shifting Sentiment in DIS Ahead of Earnings?NYSE:DIS stock has struggled this year. However, Accumulation/Distribution on this daily chart shows accumulation over the past several weeks. This is a "shift of sentiment" pattern indicating a better earnings report is likely this time.
The sideways trend is compressing and has consistent lows and highs, a common pattern for accumulation. When Accumulation appears well ahead of an earnings report, it usually (but not always) indicates improvement in fundamentals and establishes a base price for the improvement.
DIS is a target for HFTs since it's a household name stock that gets a lot of attention in the news.
Earnings
Will Companies Like Square (Block) Ever Make a Comeback?Ah yes... I remember the good ol' days of Square (now known as Block). It was one my best investments in my short career as a trader/investor. Way back when, the story was quite obvious: they had created the best solution for small businesses to sell goods & services either in a store or online.
It was fast and effortless.
The rise of Block, and subsequent drop, has been something to marvel at. I had sold my position many moons ago, but it's remained on my watchlist because I like the company and what it stands for.
Some people have given it a very hard time for its rebranding to Block, its new logo, and mission. However, considering that they are payment experts, I think it's notable and worth watching.
Nevertheless, can the stock really make a comeback? The chart is horrendous.
One factor contributing to this downward trend is the significant acquisition of Afterpay, which required a substantial amount of cash and stock, impacting Block's balance sheet. I still have NO idea why they paid this much to acquire an average company.
I guess the hype and FOMO of BNPL really got to them.
In August 2021, Block announced its intent to acquire Afterpay, a prominent "buy now, pay later" fintech company. I think the story made sense - it gave them the capability to add their own credit network. However, the sheer size of the transaction was just bonkers.
Block currently has a market cap of $28 billion. BUT, they acquired AfterPay for $29 billion! Ouch... the company is now worth less than their recent buyout.
It's important to note that such significant acquisitions often take time to yield the intended benefits. The share price decline may be partially attributed to investor impatience and a lack of immediate clarity on how Block plans to integrate Afterpay into its broader ecosystem.
The question is simple: will AfterPay ever yield the payout that Block intended it to have? If the answer is anything but "yes - it's happening" there's no reason to trade or invest in this any further. HOWEVER, if there are glimpses that show, just maybe, Block made a smart acquisition, adding a new layer to their payment network that is only just starting, then the return to highs is not far-fetched at all.
The trade is simple: watch to see how Block continues to integrate AfterPay, and, it is starts to work, it's worth evaluating further over 1-3 year comeback in share price.
APR vs. APY | Explained. Simply.In the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto investments, two terms frequently encountered are APY (Annual Percentage Yield) and APR (Annual Percentage Rate). While they sound similar, their distinctions are vital, often determining the returns on your digital assets.
APR vs. APY: Unraveling the Complexity
Annual Percentage Rate (APR) represents the straightforward interest rate that a lender earns or a borrower pays over one year. For instance, if you invest $10,000 with a 20% APR, your total after a year becomes $12,000. This simplistic calculation doesn’t consider compounding.
In contrast, Annual Percentage Yield (APY) involves the magic of compound interest. Compound interest means earning interest on the interest accrued. If the interest compounds monthly on your $10,000 investment at a 20% APR, after a year, you’d have approximately $12,194 . Daily compounding would yield even more at $12,213. Compounding frequency significantly impacts your earnings, with daily compounding being the most lucrative.
Crucial Comparisons and Calculations
When comparing financial products, whether in traditional finance or DeFi, understanding compounding frequency is paramount. Converting APR to APY is the key. A 20% APR with monthly compounding equals 21.94% in APY. Daily compounding raises it to 22.13% APY. APY factors in the compound interest, offering a more accurate depiction of your annualized returns.
However, in the crypto space, things get even more intricate. APY might reflect rewards in cryptocurrency, not actual or predicted fiat returns. This distinction is vital due to crypto's volatility. Even if you earn APY in crypto assets, your investment’s fiat value might fluctuate, emphasizing the necessity of understanding the risks involved fully.
Closing Thoughts: Navigating the Crypto Investment Landscape
APR and APY serve as vital tools in understanding the potential returns on your investments. Remember, APY, incorporating compound interest, is the metric that truly reflects your earnings, especially in the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. When comparing crypto products, ensure you're evaluating them on the same compounding basis and always consider the implications of crypto market volatility on your investments.
Knowledge empowers wise decisions. By grasping the nuances of APY and APR, you're better equipped to navigate the crypto investment landscape, making informed choices that align with your financial goals.
Saudi Aramco Stock on Tadawul ExchangeSaudi Aramco made more than 94,5 billions in profits this year. This is a good order to win the situation. After last year losses this ship is going to deliver. As you can see on the presented chart, we have prepared more complex strategy for this Asset. Alpha+Beta is when interests of passive and active managers follow the same road. Sigma stayed the same. Theta, also the same. Omega+Kappa is when interests of minority investors are divided by conflict of interests for some reason. Why we think this is truth, and not a hogwash? Well, truth in numbers, try to not associate yourself with this, calculate it yourself. Good luck with Saudi Aramco Stock, investors.
XTZ 4 the Fall Smart money Risk contraction meaning no guarantee to 85 cents; it usually surpasses it. Swing H/L with bullish contraction which now shows a completed uptrend because it’s reached first supply zone until further notice to reach top supply zone. 64 pips. Smart money magnet line means trend intends to stay sometimes within that area based on smart money momentum.
TARGET MET
INDUSIND BANK IS ABOUT TO HAVE A NICE UPWARDS RIDE...TECHNICAL INDICATORS :
ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT -
The stock has broken out of the this pattern on weekly chart
REVERSAL FROM 50D, 100D, 200D SMA -
The stock has also reversed from all the 3 sma simultaneously indicating very strong upside pressure building up
REVERSAL FROM STRONG SUPPORT-RESISTANCE ZONE -
On top of that the stock has also reversed from a zone which had earlier acted as support and resistance level multiple times
FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS :
BETTER PROFIT MARGIN POSTED COMPARED TO ITS PEERS ON THE LAST QUARTER -
The stock has also posted almost double profit margin percentage compared to ICICI, Kotak Mahindra and so on. Only SBI has posted same profit margin as indusind and sbi is also trading above all the 3 sma on Daily, Weekly & Monthly timeframes indicating the strength of this stock's upside momentum
JSW STEEL BREAKS OUT OF ASCENDING TRIANGLE WITH HUGE PROFITS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT -
Price has broken out of the pattern 2-3 weeks back on weekly chart
50D & 100D SMA REVERSAL -
Price has also taken support on 50D & 100D SMA simultaneously a few months back and have reversed from those levels since then
VOLUME SPIKE -
Price has shown volume spike on the previous week (10th july)
BREAKOUT FROM STRONG SUPPORT-RESISTANCE ZONE -
Price has broken out of the strong level which had earlier acted as a strong support zone
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :
OUTSTANDING EPS COMPARED TO PEERS -
Its mar'23 eps was ~12 compared to meagre 1.40 eps of its competitor
OUTSTANDING EBIT MARGIN COMPARED TO PEERS -
Its mar"23 ebit margin was ~12 compared to meagre ~7 of its competitor
OUTSTANDING NET PROFIT MARGIN COMPARED TO PEERS -
Its mar"23 net profit margin was ~7 compared to meagre ~2 of its competitor
TRIPLE PROFITS ON CURRENT QUARTER -
On top of everything they have also posted almost triple profits in jun quarter'23 giving more convictions to the prediction
TAKE PROFIT & STOP LOSS -
TP - 1028
SL - 740
Halfway thereWe're halfway through the year of 2023. Mega Cap earnings season begins in July. The 8 largest companies by market capitalization are AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BRK.B, META. Here's an 8 split frame, 6 month chart with financial data.
AAPL 3.05 T
+49% YTD
Earnings 8/3/23
MSFT 2.53 T
+42% YTD
Earnings 7/25/23
GOOGL 1.53 T
+36% YTD
Earnings 7/25/23
AMZN 1.34 T
+55% YTD
Earnings 7/27/23
NVDA 1.04 T
+189% YTD
Earnings 8/23/23
TSLA 830 B
+113% YTD
Earnings 8/19/23
BRK.B 745 B
+10% YTD
Earnings 8/7/23
META 735 B
+138% YTD
Earnings 7/26/23
Revenue = The total amount of money brought in by a company's operations, measured over a set amount of time.
EPS = Is calculated by subtracting any preferred dividends from a company's net income and dividing that amount by the number of shares outstanding.
PE = The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings.
PB = The Price-to-book value (P/B) is the ratio of the market value of a company's shares (share price) over its book value of equity.
PS = The price-to-sales P/S ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price by the underlying company's sales per share.
FCF = Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets.
Cash to debt ratio = The cash flow-to-debt ratio is the ratio of a company's cash flow from operations to its total debt. A ratio of 1 or greater is best, whereas a ratio of less than 1 shows that a firm isn't generating sufficient cash flow to meet its debt obligations.
PEG ratio = The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. Generally, a PEG below 1 means a stock is undervalued.
Current ratio = The current ratio is Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities. It's a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-term obligations or those due within one year. In general, a current ratio of 2 or higher is considered good, and anything lower than 2 is a cause for concern.
WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS (WHL)Trading Analysis for Woolworths on the JSE:
Woolworths (WHL) is set to announce their FY23 results on 30th August 2023, following a significant 35% rally since June 2023. However, Their recent trading update revealed that HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share) fell below expectations, accompanied by negative concerns around load shedding.
Currently, the price is testing a supply area, raising the possibility of a double top formation. This pattern suggests potential downward movement in the stock.
Short Position:
Target 1 (T1): 71.00
Target 2 (T2): 64.50
Coinbase (COIN) Surges. Will it Surpass Expectations?Introduction:
The stock price of Coinbase (COIN), one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, is making waves today with a remarkable 7.3% surge in anticipation of a crucial earnings call scheduled for 17:30 GMT-4. This event has captured the attention of traders and investors, and as the world watches, the burning question is whether Coinbase can beat the high expectations set by the market.
Earnings Expectations:
Market analysts are projecting that Coinbase's Q3 earnings report will reveal revenue of approximately $653 million and earnings per share (EPS) of -0.54. These numbers are indicative of both the potential and the challenges that lie ahead for this cryptocurrency exchange giant.
Q3 Market Dynamics:
Q3, unlike the previous months of July and August, was a relatively quiet period for Coinbase, with the crypto markets experiencing subdued activity. However, September marked a significant turnaround, with volatility levels rising notably. This shift in market dynamics could have a substantial impact on Coinbase's financial performance for the quarter.
Custodian Role in ETFs:
One intriguing development for Coinbase is its role as the custodian for all the bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. This new responsibility presents exciting opportunities and potential growth for the American exchange. As the adoption of cryptocurrency ETFs continues to gain momentum, Coinbase stands to benefit significantly.
Market Conditions:
Furthermore, the broader stock market is also on an upswing today, with Nasdaq gaining 1.4%. Simultaneously, Bitcoin experienced a notable spike, briefly reaching $36,000 before encountering a slight dip. These positive market conditions might be contributing to Coinbase's impressive stock price performance.
Comparative Performance:
In the context of the past month, Coinbase's stock price has risen by a respectable 10%. However, this gain pales in comparison to Bitcoin's impressive 27% increase over the same period. This discrepancy raises questions about whether Coinbase can catch up with the soaring performance of the world's leading cryptocurrency.
Conclusion:
As the clock ticks down to the eagerly anticipated earnings call, all eyes are on Coinbase. The financial results unveiled during this event will provide insights into the cryptocurrency exchange's health and resilience in a rapidly evolving market. Whether Coinbase can outperform expectations or merely meet them, its current surge in stock price is indicative of the market's optimism regarding its potential to capitalize on the evolving crypto landscape. Investors and traders alike will be watching closely to see if Coinbase can deliver on these expectations and continue its journey as a major player in the cryptocurrency industry. The world of cryptocurrency awaits the verdict on Coinbase's Q3 performance with bated breath, aware of the pivotal role it plays in the crypto ecosystem.
Solid Small Caps for EarningsAnyone finding interesting setups in small caps this earnings season?
These often have more reliable patterns for swing trading. Since they are largely under the radar of the retail crowd, institutional patterns can be clearer.
NASDAQ:CERE is an example of a stock coming up in TechniTrader scans today. It has 88% institutional holdings. A compression pattern is developing. HFTs have been in it recently, possibly due to intermittent accumulation. The strengthening of the sideways action is particularly visible with the RSI indicator.
Dark Pool accumulation tends to cause controlled sideways patterns like this, a key ingredient for what we call Relational Technical Analysis at TechniTrader.
Because this has had a swing-style run out of the last compression pattern at a low in this longer trading range, a swing trade could be considered on the breakout, either above today's high or above the last resistance level for a more conservative entry. (Green lines on the chart) My target would be 31, but of course I'd be watching for exit signals or an extreme pattern to take profits early. Stop loss at the red line on the chart.
A more aggressive trader could look at an entry ahead of the close today if pro trader patterns emerge in the last 15 minutes with an exit shortly after the open if a run or gap up develops for an EOD to FOD trade.
Happy Trading!
Guest author: Mele Ainuu, Senior Technical Analyst, Student Support @ TechniTrader
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 5.376B
Release Date: 11/01 BMO
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #8
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 56.055B
Release Date: 11/01 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #0
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: sell wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 11/01 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #3
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #6
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/31 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
MSTR Evening Star Poses Whipsaw Risk"Evening stars" are not as reliable as they used to be. They occur after heavy speculation and a steep angle of ascent. A few days ahead of earnings, NASDAQ:MSTR could not break through the resistance above.
The Gap up was HFT driven. This stock has a lot of retail interest at the moment, with every eye on AI. But the selloff from last quarter's reporting season is creating resistance on the daily scales. It is a very pricey stock for this market condition and the emotional state of most investors.
MSTR is likely to gap on earnings news as there are leaks out that it is going to be a blockbuster earnings report.
Potential Value Trap - Mattel ShortMattel’s management has exerted great efforts over the past year to pull off a turnaround story in the company’s performance. The company released its box office hit movie, Barbie, in 2023 and expects the hit to be the catalyst for the turnaround. Despite the impressive effort and resulting success of the Barbie movie, I retain a bearish view on the stock and see the potential for a Value-Trap trade.
The above-mentioned media effects combined with the presence of a large distribution schematic on the stock’s Weekly chart suggest large scale operates are poised, inducing public interest in the stock, thereby engineering liquidity for a big move. Our bearish stance expects a significant markdown of the stock’s price in light of decreasing sales and earnings expectation.
In the second quarter of 2023, sales fell 12% from last year. So far, Mattel has hung on to gains from the Barbie movie and is up 22% this year.
Pro Trader Patterns for Swing TradingThis important exchange has been doing very well with options and futures contract sales.
NASDAQ:CME had a classic pre-earnings run up fueled by professional traders swing trading, out of a platform support level.
The retracement was only a sympathy move with retail knee-jerk reactions due to the fear around the stock market at this time, not an indication of the company's earnings report or growth potential.
The stock is not at its all-time high level yet, so it can run further before slamming into strong resistance.
On the monthly chart, it has a Double Trough on DPO, which is a strong indication for the stock's long-term cycle.
IBM: A Risky Earnings TradeNYSE:IBM Reports after the market closes today. It is probably at or near its fundamental levels even if the report is weak.
The chart shows a strong support level as the stock price is at the neck of the bottom completion level.
IBM is in a long term trading range when viewed on a long term trend. The problem is a weak CEO who has failed at reinvention and a stock that is pricey for its growth potential.
However, it has more upside potential than downside. It would take a really negative report to create a strong run down. That is not likely.
PSHI is very low so less savvy investors own almost half the outstanding shares. This means trading the earnings report is riskier.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/25 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is negative.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #8
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is negative.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.