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Earnings

NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses: Earnings Estimate Management From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following: The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023. In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022. For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023. This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022. In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”. Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there. Conclusion Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence. One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
NYSE:NIOShort
by kyhbko
AFFIRM - is this still a good buy? CNBC has reported recently the surge of AFFIRM shares after better-than-expected results as per the screenshot above. AFFIRM (a buy now pay later business) has published some exciting highlights. Let us look at their GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation in detail: AFFIRM makes a profit in the most recent quarter by using non-GAAP measurements. Using the whole year results ending 30 June 2023, total revenue is $1.587B and total operating costs are $2.788B, representing an operating loss of $1.2B. Yet through the lens of non-GAAP, the last quarter was profitable with $14.7M because non-GAAP does not include the costs of depreciation & amortization, stock-based compensation, enterprise warrant, restructuring and other costs. Going forward, I recommend all to focus more on the GAAP figures as that gives a better view of the financials. Creative accounting and business narratives can distract us from having a realistic view of the business. The need to probe further into the financials is necessary so that we can better appreciate the financial fundamentals of the business. After 1 year, AFFIRM suffered a loss of $1.2B, compared to the loss of $0.866B from the same period a year ago. Conclusion Let us perform the due diligence necessary so that we can filter out great companies. It is possible that some of the media focus on certain good parts and omit other “necessary” portions. No one should care more about our money than ourselves. The due diligence will be the leverage we have. Should the price plunge, this will give us the confidence to hold or buy even more. Without good fundamentals, I recommend staying away. NASDAQ:AFRM
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by kyhbko
GNS Consolidated and Resting from Big Move LONGOn the 30-minute chart, I see GNS as a Bullish Pennant on a high flag pole in the big move yesterday with consolidation now. It is high in the VWAP bands and so at risk for a reversal to the mean. Pennants more often than not continue upside. To hedge, I have set two lines. If the price goes over the green line a buy stop long will trigger into a market price. If the price drops below the pennant height, a sell stop will trigger the short trade. One trade is on the other will not execute. Ask if you want my suggestion as to stop losses and targets. (EDIT - On the chart it is a flagpole not a flap pole !)
AMEX:GNSLong
by AwesomeAvani
MRVL fell after earnings beat & recovery REVERSALMRVL a technology stock beholden to the ebbs and tides of both the general markets and the leaders of the tech sector fell on a mild earnings beat this is to say traders were disappointed and responded with a 16% sell off from the pre-earnings run up. I see MRVL potentially suitable for a retracement of half of the 16%. On the 30- minute chart using both pivots as well as near and intermediate volume profiles I have marked out important levels upside from the current market. Accordinly, there are three targets I will close 50% of the position at the first 30% at the second and the remaining 20% at the third. I see this as an 8-10% overall profit in a swing trade of about a week duration. If the tech sector recovers next week from this current week, the profit could well be higher.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by AwesomeAvani
DLTR drops after earnings follows the market down DLTR dropped on a mild earnings beat. It is now below a volume shelf at 128. Indicators including the MACD suggest a reversal as bullish divergence is showing. The mass index supports a reversal. On the dual time frame RSI, the low TF green line is above the higher TF black line which is weaker. Overall, DLTR could retrace to 133 based on the Fib retracement tool However, I will not take this trade until price crosses above the POC line. !33 will be the first target and 134.5 the second target being the mean VWAP. I will take a call on options trade as well. I will only enter if the general market indices appear to be upgoing which is a challenge given the upcoming Powell speech at Jackson Hole If the market is down turning, the trade will be paused and reassessed at early next week.
NASDAQ:DLTRLong
by AwesomeAvani
WOOF dropped after an earnings beat now setup REVERSALOPRA on the 30-minute chart dropped after an earnings beat as apparently a lot of traders expected better. The volume profile shows the vast majority of the trading occurred in the 5.05 to 5.25 range. This heavy accumulation should result in price movement in due time per Wycoff. I believe that a long trade is setup for a Fibonacci retracement of the drop into the middle levels and so 5.85 as shown by the indicator on the chart. The mass index indicator reached the reversal zone and then triggered with a drop below it confirming a probable reversal. The MACD is showing bullish divergence. I will place a buy stop order above the POC line of the volume profile with a stop loss at 12.0 just below the POC line is a safe 10-13% trade which may take into the beginning of next week. I will take call option contracts as well. If you want to know the details of those, please leave a comment.
NASDAQ:WOOFLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern. The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area. Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%. The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer. Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure. Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards. Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall! Thanks
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZachSap
NVDA 500 - 540 still in play by 8/25They say the Trend is your friend until the end! This amazing trendline has another 2 days to go before Earnings on Wednesday 8/25 after hours. Ibelieve if you have 2 positions currently to the upside, take profit before earnings and play one for fun. NVDA will have to blow away earnings again to get us a massive boost to $600 which I still think is very possible! But if we fall we will fall to about 320 - 350 over time to fill the gap. But who knows it may never happen! I am more bullish than bearish in this case because of massive FOMO in this stock but whether you are long or short remember to take profits and if you are playing earnings, play with money you can afford to lose. GLTA!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by willgiordano1
3
NVDA Earnings Outlook:High Premium, Potential Post-Earnings DropNASDAQ:NVDA trades at a premium, with a P/E ratio of 277, towering over the sector median P/E of 25.56 and the S&P 500's P/E of 24.50. Its EV/EBIT is also remarkably high at 207.38 against the sector median of 19.45, signaling significant market sentiment. The options market's pricing in a potential $50 move,trading well above recommended levels 50-day EMA, suggesting that it might be overbought. While there may be a continued run-up leading to earnings, a post-earnings drop is anticipated. Target levels post-earnings could be $433, $419, and $400. Play the run-up but be cautious to sell the news.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Solidified
ETON Biotech Big Earning Beat Pullback LONGETON jumped on a big earnings report a week ago. This small cap biotechology company is making big money and traders responded. It has now experienced a standard 0.5 Fib level retracement pullback and traders early in the jump take profit. At this level new buyers have equilibrated with those selling their shares and taking profit. The ZL MACD lines are ready to cross bearly under the histogram whose negative/ red amplitude is reverting toward the zero line. The lines of the dual time frame RS indicator have held above the 50 level. In consideration of this healthy pullback and buying /selling pressure equilibrium I will take a long trade looking for 15-20% upside considering also the uprising fundamentals of the stock based on the big earnings beat.
NASDAQ:ETONLong
by AwesomeAvani
8
$HIMS - Watch out belowNYSE:HIMS - the recent double beat and guidance raise has not helped out this stock. There is a gap fill dating back to November of 2022 with hardly any strong support zones in sight. The death cross which just occurred should add further downward pressure to this already beaten up stock. I will turn long on NYSE:HIMS once the first level of support is reached (around $6.20). I will add on the way down as the stock approaches the gap fill. The increased guidance and double beat proves this may be a long-term winner, however, in the short-term there is more room to fall.
NYSE:HIMS
by jhuey235
DE falling into undervalued territory / Favorable Earnings LONGDE on the 4H chart is now setup for a long trade. It is now positioned just above a long term anchored VWAP to which a stop loss can be set just below @ 390. DE was falling before favorable earnings and has not yet reversed. I see this as an opportunity to trade an industrial blue chip taking entry well below fair value and so a bargain. I will get a mixture of a handfulof stock shares and a single option 4 months to expiration. The target is selected to be 445 at the upper Bollinger bands confluent with the second deviation line of the anchored VWAP. This is about 13% upside- while the option's profit potential is substantially higher. If you would like to know the details of the call option leave a comment. ( if this idea is of interest considering liking and following :)
NYSE:DELong
by AwesomeAvani
Empowering Financially Deprived Female Traders: A Letter of Hope Introduction Dear Fellow Trader, I hope this letter finds you in good health and spirits, despite the challenges you might be facing on your journey as a financially deprived female trader. I want you to know that you are not alone in this struggle, and your determination to navigate the world of trading is truly inspiring. In this letter, I aim to offer you guidance, support, and practical insights to help you overcome the hurdles and seize opportunities in the trading landscape. Acknowledging Your Strength First and foremost, let me commend your courage. Being a female trader in a field traditionally dominated by men is an accomplishment in itself. Your presence challenges stereotypes and contributes to the diversification of the trading world. Embrace your uniqueness and the fresh perspectives you bring to the table. The Power of Education Education is your greatest asset. In a rapidly evolving market, staying updated with the latest trends, tools, and strategies is crucial. Fortunately, the digital age has made education more accessible than ever. Take advantage of online courses, webinars, and educational resources tailored to traders of all experience levels. Knowledge will empower you to make informed decisions and minimize risks. Building a Support Network Surround yourself with like-minded individuals who understand your journey. Join trading communities, both online and offline, where you can exchange ideas, seek advice, and share experiences. A strong support network can provide emotional encouragement, practical insights, and valuable connections that can significantly boost your trading career. Setting Realistic Goals Dream big, but ground your aspirations in reality. Set achievable short-term and long-term goals that reflect your financial situation, risk tolerance, and market knowledge. Tracking your progress against these goals will help you stay focused and motivated, even during challenging times. Mastering Risk Management One of the most critical aspects of trading is managing risk effectively. Protecting your capital should be your top priority. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and diversify your portfolio to spread risk. Utilize stop-loss orders and position sizing techniques to limit potential losses while allowing room for gains. Leveraging Technology Technology has revolutionized trading, leveling the playing field for traders of all backgrounds. Make use of trading platforms, analytical tools, and algorithms to enhance your decision-making process. Automated trading systems can help execute trades even when you’re not actively monitoring the market. Embracing Resilience Financial markets are inherently volatile, and losses are a part of the game. What sets successful traders apart is their ability to bounce back from setbacks. Develop resilience by learning from your mistakes, analyzing your failures, and adapting your strategies accordingly. Remember that every loss is a lesson that brings you closer to success. Continuous Adaptation Adaptability is key to survival in the trading world. Market conditions change, and strategies that worked before might not be effective today. Stay flexible and open-minded, willing to adjust your approach based on new information and evolving trends. Seeking Mentorship Mentorship can provide invaluable guidance based on the firsthand experiences of seasoned traders. Finding a mentor who understands your challenges and aspirations can accelerate your learning curve and help you avoid common pitfalls. Their insights can be a beacon of light during uncertain times. Navigating Bias and Discrimination Unfortunately, bias and discrimination still persist in the trading world. As a female trader, you might encounter skepticism or condescension from some quarters. Use these experiences as fuel to prove your capabilities. Let your performance speak louder than any prejudices. Conclusion In closing, dear trader, remember that your journey is a testament to your strength, resilience, and determination. The financial struggles you face today do not define your future. With the right knowledge, mindset, and support, you can overcome challenges and achieve success beyond your wildest dreams. Embrace each day as an opportunity to grow, learn, and thrive in the world of trading. Stay focused, stay hungry, and never lose sight of your potential. Sincerely, A Supportive Fellow Trader
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Education
by lazyluchi
3
Walmart reports bumper earnings, but prices heads lowerWalmart has managed to beat expectations across the board today, with the retailer clearly managing to fare well despite concerns over the potential for an economic slowdown. Compared with Bloomberg numbers, the company has managed to outperform across a host of metrics: Net revenue: $161.6 billion versus $159.7 billion expected Adjusted diluted EPS: $1.84 versus $1.70 expected US same-store sales growth: 6.3% versus 4.04% expected Sam's Club US stores growth: 5.5% versus $5.58 expected Walmart US same-store sales growth: 6.40% versus 4.29% expected Traffic growth: 2.90% versus 1.63% expected Ticket growth: 3.40% versus 2.00% expected E-commerce growth: 2.30% versus 1.54% expected Gross margin: 23.38% versus 23.55% expected Inventory growth: -5.34% versus -5.54% expected However, this has done little to help the stock, with price falling back in early trade. Nonetheless, the bullish trend seen over the course of the past two-years does bring confidence that the bulls are going to come back into the fold once again here. As such, watch for a potential bullish reversal for Walmart, with a decline through $153.14 support required to negate that bullish trend.
NYSE:WMTLong
by ScopeMarkets
A Spoonful of CMG looks attractive with Restaurant Sales Up 32%For the three months ending in June 2023, the average restaurant sales of $2.94M were up 7.1% from June 2022 ($2.74M) and 32.4% from the end of 2019 ($2.22M). The California-based restaurant chain is expected to report $43.38 in EPS for the current fiscal year ending in Dec 2023. The company registers $40.02 in Diluted EPS on a trailing twelve months ending in June 2023, rendering a 46.6x PE multiple. Multiplying a 46.6x PE multiple to $43.38 in EPS renders a share price of $2021.51 . Placing the 200 EMA PE multiple of 52.7x to $43.38 in EPS renders a share price of $2286.13 .
NYSE:CMG
by rohitayikkara
UNH can break $600 provided it maintains >20x PE multiple. At $511, UNH shares trade at 21.72x TTM Earnings Per Share of $23.53 for the twelve months ending in June 2023. The company is expected to report $24.87 in EPS for the current fiscal year, $27.94 in the next fiscal year, and $31.37 in the year after. The 200D EMA PE Ratio for UNH was 23.20x. Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple implies a 6% and 13% rally by the end of the current fiscal year. Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple for the subsequent fiscal year's EPS of $27.94 implies a rally of 19% and 27%. Placing a 21.7x and 23.2x multiple for the $31.37, the company is expected to earn in two fiscal years implies shares can rally 33% and 43%, respectively.
NYSE:UNH
by rohitayikkara