$TSLA Down on Over-SpeculationNASDAQ:TSLA reported earnings after market close yesterday. Pro traders took profits before the close as the run became technically overextended. It gapped down today, but not on the extreme volume we'd expect from the usual HFT activity around earnings.
Profit and Operating margins are decreasing quarter over quarter, but revenues and net income are increasing.
This is not so much an onslaught of sellers but profit-taking along with a lack of buyers at this price range. As occurs often for this high-profile yet important EV company, the stock is over-speculated and needs to pattern out the excess. It could test the next support levels, but ultimately it's likely to head sideways as it challenges the resistance from Aug-Oct of last year...barring any surprises from Musk ;)
Dark Pool Buy Zones are in the bottom formation. The question is: will those buy zones be moved up or not?
Earnings
Tesla's Earnings: In the Rearview Mirror, Riding High!With Tesla's earnings now behind us, it's time to reevaluate our confidence in the company. I'm beginning to think that gross margins won't hold the same significance anymore, given Tesla's dominant position in the EV charging industry. Likewise, the recent announcement regarding " early talks for FSD licensing " seems sufficient to propel the stock price to all-time highs. Elon wouldn't have made this announcement unless the discussions had reached a mature stage. In my view, this is the ChatGPT moment for Tesla.
In the short term, we might observe consolidation around the multi-year breakout levels. However, my belief is firmly rooted in the long-term perspective, where I expect the trend to continue upward, as long as the macro environment remains supportive.
A tight stop for Elevance Health Required Elevance Health NYSE:ELV - Long term positioning
Positive earnings are causing a pump in price but be careful here though. Earnings positive since April 2020, why the pump? If i was entering a long term position here i would be waiting for the bottom of the parallel channel and RSI resistance line or at least harboring some cash on the side and splitting my position.
Chart Requirements
- A retest of RSI resistance line preferred
- Ideal levels outlined on chart
- If entering here, please place a tight stop loss as there is a more ideal entry lower
NAS100 looking for the 230 EMA (tomorrow)If you saw my last post, looking for a confirmation setup 1 we could find two very interesting causalities! One of them was the big rise that occurred at 11 AM after Colombia time, candlesticks and wicks that barely exceeded 1% causing the small trades to be in Stop Loss, the others have behaved very low in a range below 1%, today we await confirmation of price action looking for the price to reach the EMA of 230 periods.
The likelihood of a recession in the US is declining.
Goldman Sachs sees a decline in the likelihood of a recession in the US over the next year from 25% to 20% thanks to encouraging economic data: improving consumer sentiment and slowing inflation, writes Business Insider.
The bank expects only one and the last rate hike by the Fed and is quite optimistic about a "soft landing" for the US economy.
The Fed's sharp rate hike for more than a year has raised fears of a "hard landing" as the economy slumps as it fights to bring inflation down to its 2% target. However, according to the latest data, consumer inflation in the US has already reached 3%, down from 9% a year ago.
At the same time, fundamental signals point to further disinflation: “Used car prices are falling on the back of rising car production and inventories, and rent inflation still has a long way to go before it catches up with the median asking rent, while the labor market continues to recover from continuing downward trend in vacancies, layoffs, labor shortages and rising nominal wages.”
$NYSE:HSY swing trade idea (NFA)THIS IDEA WAS CREATED WITH A LOT OF HOPIUM, DO UR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.
I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. NYSE:HSY
The earnings were better then expected in the last 4 earnings which resulted on average
around 3-5% price increase.
The earnings date is on 27th july, I expect for them to beat the earnings hence the price
could increase as it did in the passed.
Year on Year they are increasing assets and decreasing liabilities.
Hence I think it can even be invested as long term, altho this should be taken with a grain of
salt. I am not a financial advisor
Also the RSI is really low, indicating the stock is in oversold territory. (it could be a great
time to buy in for the long term)
Stay safe.
Retail investors did not believe in artificial intelligence.The reason for the revival of the US stock market was the explosion of interest in AI. The market is up nearly 25% since its October low. Most interestingly, retail investors did not show active interest according to sources US retail investors were selling US tech stocks. And even more interesting is that, based on the analysis of historical data, experts draw the following conclusion - the lack of interest of retail investors in new developments is a good sign. Whenever their interest in something new was at a minimum, this "new" had a beneficial effect on the market. That is, we expect further growth.
Reporting is not the end of life. We need to look further.The reporting season for the second quarter begins this week. All investors will want to know about the state of companies and their economies.
Earnings included in the SP500 are projected to decline by approximately 7.6% year-on-year. This will be the third consecutive quarter of decline and the largest decline in earnings reported by the broad-based index after a loss of approximately 32% in the second quarter of 2020.
But investors will be watching even more closely to see what companies forecast for their financials and the economy as a whole. This will be more important than looking back on earnings results to determine whether this year's rally can continue and whether the economy is headed for a downturn.
The S&P 500 is up about 16% for the year, driven by the artificial intelligence hype that propelled tech stocks to sky-high heights and an economy that has remained resilient despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
The economy showed no signs of slowing down this year. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, compared with a second estimate of 1.3% reported last month.
Some investors say the strength of the economy could begin to wane as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and consumers draw on savings built up in the midst of the pandemic.
Source: CNN
Everyone is worried about the prospects for inflation.This week, companies in the US will report on how much profit or loss they have made. Of course, most likely it will be about profit. And these data will tell the experts what dynamics of inflation is expected. Many experts are sure that the received profit is closely connected with the future indicators of inflation.
Inflation is finally coming down. But consumer goods prices continue to rise, and just as fast.
Earlier, the Fed chairman said that wage growth should slow down to reduce inflationary indicators. But at the same time, some experts point to another culprit: corporate profits. The International Monetary Fund also claims that half of inflation is due to corporate profits.
This week will be published two major indicators of inflation in the US - the consumer price index on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday. Friday morning earnings reports for the second quarter start with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi and Blackrock.
Source: CNN
Will Novavax NVAX go higher? SHORTNVAX popped today for a price jump of more than 20%. Canada agreed to pay out on a contract
for COVID vaccines it now does not want in the amount of $350M. This is hardly enough to
the fundamentals of the company overall. So the question arises, have traders and / or
investors overreacted to a one time bonus which is essentially revenue without overhead and
expense. My opinion is that this is an overreaction and that the price will drop after the
pop hits a high. Buying long right now is essentially the risk of buying a high that will not
go higher. On the Chris Moody dual RSI indicator, the longer one hour TM in black is over
75 while the shorter 5 minute TM in blue has peaked and dropped from 95 to 60. This is
in essence bearish divergence. The other indicator, the mass index, shows the value
arriving at the reversal zone where a drop to below 26.5 will be the trigger.
Overall, for both fundamental and technical reasons, I will enter a short trade on NVAX
expecting a correction / pullback from the pop the stock got after a one-time bonus of
a payout for not producing unneeded vaccines.
Bottom For oil was May 2023. Oil prices are prepared for strong growth to the upside. NYMEX:CL1! made its bottom in May of 2023.
Three reasons for this case to be made.
Russia cutting OPEC+ production by 500,000. The original balance from OEPC+ was 450,000 barrels of surplus. No Suprise that they cut it by exactly 500,000.
U.S. Now focused on SPR replenishing as opposed to releases.
Strong GDP solidifies no recession, and high employment solidifies strength in the consumer.
D.R. Horton ($DHI) LongD.R. Horton, Inc. is a home construction company. Since 2002, the company has been the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States. Someone sold DHI 8/25 105P short and bought 120/130C spreads for 1.25... Same trader, multi-leg bullish strategy. Look for a bounce off the 50 day moving avg on this big cup and handle breakout... I would look into the DHI 8/25 120/130C spread for about 2.15. Target = 130 and payout could be 2-3.5x . HF recently flipped long on DHI according to Jefferies. Earnings later this month...
Essilor Luxottica is CashtrappedEssilor Luxottica is a multinational corporation that designs, produces and markets ophthalmic lenses, optical equipment, prescription glasses and sunglasses. The company dominate nearly a thirds of global eyewear industry under it's wings.
The company has shown a strong growth of revenue over the past 10 years. However there are some issue on their ability to payoff their debts: their cash flow to debt ratio is only 17%, which means the company may need to take 6 years to pay off their debt obligation.
Which in current rate hike environment may have been very difficult to raise cash. Their cash flow has been fallen since the pandemic and is getting worse even though they have been reducing their debt. However the upcoming recession and rate hikes, as well as growing competitions from smaller eyewear and lense makers from China and Asia that sell their products at a fractional price of Essilors brands such as Rayband, Oakley, Michael Kors etc, which can be purchased online from Alibaba, AliExpress, Grab, Gojek, Sophify, etc.
Gold/XAUUSD PURE Tec- where EXACTLY to BUY🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD
🔰 Time Frame : 4H
🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale
🔰 Direction : SELL THEN BUY
Following up on our previous discussion regarding #Gold, we intend to explore the technical aspects surrounding this commodity. We observe the presence of substantial daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour demand zones ahead, indicating potential support levels. Furthermore, there is a noteworthy weekly market imbalance at the 50% level that appears likely to be filled. Additionally, we have identified a bullish crab pattern, with the completion of CD legs on the horizon, further supporting a positive outlook.
Moreover, in light of the recent release of the US GDP News ahead, we have identified a potential entry point for buying #Gold. Considering the interplay between fundamental factors and technical analysis, we believe this presents an opportune moment to consider entering the market.
Should you require any clarification or have any inquiries, please feel free to leave your comments, and we will gladly provide further explanations.
APPLE ATH Fueled by Quintet PowerhousesHow did APPLE make a new ATH?
In the fiscal year of 2022, Apple Inc. amassed a staggering revenue close to $400 billion. The tech behemoth’s financial forecast predicts an even more dazzling $450 billion by 2023. What’s at the nucleus of this financial prowess? Here’s a dissection of the five products and services that are the linchpins in Apple's revenue generation.
1. iPhone: The Standard-Bearer
Since its inception in 2007, the iPhone has been the lodestar in Apple's stellar performance, consistently accounting for over half of the company’s revenue. There was a lull in the iPhone's sales during 2015-2020, but the fiscal years of 2021 and 2022 witnessed a robust resurgence. Could it be the worldwide lockdowns that reignited consumers' affinity for this beloved gadget? One wonders.
Moreover, Apple's unceasing innovation has been a catalyst in this resurgence. The company has been adept at understanding and adapting to market trends, releasing newer models with advanced features such as enhanced camera capabilities, cutting-edge processors, and improved battery life. The introduction of 5G technology in the iPhone 12 and subsequent models further bolstered its appeal. With the ever-evolving landscape of consumer preferences, Apple's commitment to innovation ensures that the iPhone continues to hold its enviable position in the market.
2. Services: A Diverse Armamentarium
Apple's services segment is a multi-pronged affair. The App Store and Apple Music are the twin pillars, but AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple Card, and iCloud storage are significant contributors as well. It's been an upward trajectory for this segment since 2013, with no signs of abating.
Additionally, the expansion of Apple's services is emblematic of the company's strategic diversification. As the digital landscape evolves, Apple has astutely tapped into the growing demand for integrated services. Its focus on user privacy and seamless integration across devices has been a strong value proposition. For instance, Apple TV+ enters a competitive streaming market but with original content and collaborations with high-profile creators. Apple’s services segment not only supplements its revenue but also enhances customer retention and creates a more entrenched ecosystem, encouraging users to invest more within the Apple universe.
3. Mac: The Unwavering Pillar
The allure of personal computers has attenuated globally, and Mac's revenue plateaued between 2011 and 2020. However, the Mac remains integral to Apple’s ecosystem, not least because of its role in keeping users within Apple's interconnected iOS operating system.
In recent times, Apple has sought to reinvigorate the Mac lineup through innovation and integration. The introduction of Apple's own M1 chip, as opposed to relying on Intel's processors, marked a significant turning point. The M1 chip has been lauded for its performance and energy efficiency, giving the Mac a competitive edge. Furthermore, the seamless integration between the Mac and other Apple devices through features like Handoff, Universal Clipboard, and Sidecar has reinforced the appeal of owning a Mac as part of the larger Apple ecosystem. This ongoing revitalization suggests that Apple is far from considering the Mac as a legacy product, and is instead positioning it for a renewed period of relevance and growth.
4. iPad: Upon their debut, iPads were an instant sensation, raking in an impressive $19 billion in the first year. There was a zenith in 2014, after which sales experienced a decline. Currently, iPad sales hover in the range of $20-30 billion, cementing their place in Apple’s revenue mix.
5. Wearables & Accessories:
The Rising Contenders Under this category, one finds an array of products including Beats headphones, AirPods, and the Apple Watch. This segment has been climbing the ladder of success since 2015. Notably, AirPods are estimated to constitute a quarter of the revenue in this category.
Apple's foray into the wearables and accessories market is indicative of its visionary approach to emerging consumer trends. The health and fitness boom, for instance, has been adeptly capitalized on through the Apple Watch, which offers features like heart rate monitoring, exercise tracking, and ECG. AirPods, on the other hand, have become something of a cultural phenomenon, merging high-quality audio with sleek design. These products are not just revenue generators; they are an extension of Apple's ecosystem, promoting brand loyalty and customer engagement. By continuously innovating and expanding in this sector, Apple ensures it remains not just a heavyweight in consumer electronics but a trendsetter in lifestyle technologies.
Conclusion: Apple's ascent to become the first company to reach $1 trillion and subsequently $2 trillion in market capitalization is hardly fortuitous. The aforementioned quintet of products and services is the bedrock of its supremacy. With consumers' unabated ardor for Apple’s innovations and the brand loyalty it commands, NASDAQ:AAPL remains a formidable player in the stock market. Is Apple part of your investment portfolio?
Honeywell Tries to Grind UpwardHoneywell has been dormant since March, but now some traders may think bulls are gaining traction in the industrial conglomerate.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of April and early June. HON ripped above that line two weeks ago and is now attempting to bounce at it. Old resistance may have become new support.
Second, the stock jumped on April 26 after results beat estimates and management raised guidance. Will that lift the animal spirits into the next report in about a month?
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is rising toward the 200-day SMA. A “golden cross” to the upside could make some chart watchers view the longer-term trend more bullishly.
Finally, short-term signals could also be positive: The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has been above the 21-day EMA for most of June and MACD has been rising.
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