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S&P 2023CME_MINI:ES1! What is to come and what is in store for the US economy? After our confirmed daily deathX in Q2 of 2022. What is to be expected for the duration of this guaranteed to be eventful 2023. Powell has been preaching a ''soft landing'' do you think we will see it unfold before our eyes? Maybe, maybe not however one thing is for certain. Life within itself is perpetual and filled with uncertainties. of course we know the market does not care about what we think. However as traders its imperative that we weigh our risk. Perform our due diligence and trade what is IN front of us. With treasuries rising and the BOJ meeting Wednesday. I myself will be taking a bearish stance with the potential outlook of a earnings recession coming into play. We will see what happens from there. A hedge to to target 3700 is my long term target with a stop loss of 4350 on the spread.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ra_way
Tesla price action down trendFundamentally, the company is strong. From pandemic till now its earnings just keep growing. Hence the company itself continues to make money. Price action, however says its downtrending which makes sense in that Elon did sell off a lot for twitter. Once that normalises, the price action will again follow the fundamentals. As long as Elon is the lead, I can firmly believe tesla will continue to do good as it leads in continuous innovation. If you're in long term investing, expect heavy bullish sentiment. If you're a trader, then ride the down trend.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LittleSovi
STNE - Preparing for a Parabolic MoveBoth the chart pattern & recovering financial performance show that STNE is preparing for a parabolic move. I was wondering why this Brazilian Fintech Company, which had stunning financial performance in the previous years, nosedived from 90 to 10 in hardly one year. A decrease of almost 90% - that's scary for every investor. The reason I found is the bad debts - when macroeconomic situation of Brazil worsened people couldn't pay their debts. But now the STNE is recovering on the back surprising quarterly results and whopping estimates about future earnings. Let's discuss important strengths of STNE: TECHNICALS: Stock entered accumulation zone in March 2022 and is swinging between price range of 12 to 7 for the last 7 months. It is forming ascending triangle but still breakout hasn't occurred and Golden Cross is also awaited. Average volume has increased but big spikes which show institutional buying are also not yet witnessed. FUNDAMENTALS: Recent quarter has been tremendously good for STNE. Its post quarter income increased 140% and its revenues increased 10%. One surprising aspect about STNE is that its topline growth has never stopped despite negative incomes in many trailing quarters. Company's revenues increased 110% in Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) because of increasing number of customers and inspiring performance of its core payment-processing system. Its earnings estimate of $0.35 per share represents a change of +191.67% from the year-ago number. Another positive aspect is that Warren Buffet has this stock in his portfolio due to its high risk-reward potential. Hence, I am keeping this stock in strict monitoring and waiting for breakout and golden cross. Another good quarter of earnings can be real fuel for its market performance.
NASDAQ:STNELong
by starringinvestors
7
Chart and fundamental analysis of Iris Energy Limited (IRIS)The operating result for the last quarter was published recently, on November 30, 2022. 1. Graphic Analysis As the company's core activity is Bitcoin mining, it is important to analyze the correlation with the price of Bitcoin. As you can see in the graph below, most of the time the correlation is positive. It seems to me that the price is at the end of wave 5, about to reverse the downtrend, which has lasted since the beginning. The DMI SMI Oscillator exhibits a bullish descending wedge. This same interpretation can be obtained on the RSI: 2. Fundamental analysis Net income has held steady for quite some time at $72 million. As of Q1 since year 2022, it has declined to minus -$2 million and has since been stable. The same reasoning can be applied to Earnings per Share versus Estimated Earnings per Share . The balance sheet remains healthy, with assets greater than liabilities. Even if there is a need to settle the net debt after the sale of assets, it would be comfortably honored. With regard to cash flow, money from third parties continues to decrease, which is positive. Money spent on investments follows a negative flow. A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities. While cash from operating activities remains stable at $4 million. The point to note negatively is the free cash flow, which has drastically reduced to -$210 million.
NASDAQ:IRENLong
by andre_007
JNJ Buy Long on StrengthJNJ fundamentally is a cross between Big Pharm and Consumer Staples Recent Earnings were solid not spectacular but the latter is not expected here. Technically, JNJ climbs higher without much volatility, At the moment it is rising in a small cycle within the supertrend. Strength is increasing and some bearish momentum is exhausting. This is a low-beta stock and it does not react much to the larger broad market. I see this as a good time for a LEAP option for early 2024 at a strike 15% above the current price.
NYSE:JNJLong
by AwesomeAvani
What’s happening in semiconductors? The next chapterWe recently wrote about semiconductors from the perspective of capital spending and government policies aimed towards encouraging further capital spending and ultimately semiconductor independence. However, we’d be remiss to not at least touch on some of the current geopolitics. A simplified look at the semiconductor supply chain If one simplifies a rather complex set of interrelationships across countries, we can see a triangle with three distinct corners1. Foundries: These companies are manufacturing the physical chips. There are not too many individual players, as the capital expenditures to enter this space are extremely high. Additionally, they don’t all have the same capabilities. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is well known for being able to reliably manufacture the most advanced chips in the world. Samsung Electronics, Intel and Global Foundries represent other important players. Intellectual Property Companies: These companies make and sell different layouts and designs. ARM, the company currently owned by SoftBank, is one example with a huge presence across the internet of things (IoT). Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools: EDA was only $10 billion in 2021, a small part of the overall $595 billion semiconductor market, but it is essential if chip manufacturers are to determine if a design is feasible prior to production. Cadence, Synopsys and Mentor Graphics are the three leading players in this space. Together, they control about 70% of the global market. Behind each of these points on the triangle is a lot of history embedded as experience, and it is important to recognise this since it is what makes it particularly challenging for an outside player—in this case China—to just copy it. The ASML example Lithography is the term used for the practice of etching the appropriate designs on the silicon that allow for the functional operation of the transistors. More transistors spaced more closely together, simply put, means a more efficient and capable chip. Today’s Apple M1 chip contains 16 billion transistors2. The degree of precision engineering required to be able to put 16 billion transistors on something that is not the size of multiple city blocks, much less could fit within a laptop or smartphone, is one of the most impressive feats of human ingenuity that the world has ever seen. The short version of the story is that a company in the Netherlands, ASML, was in a position to take a big risk in the 2000’s—the pursuit of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). EUV was needed because there needed to be shorter wavelengths of light used to almost shave atom by atom away from the silicon to make the transistors small enough, basically 5-nanometres. This light is generated by flashing a specific type of laser 50,000 times per second at molten tin3. Developing EUV was so capital intensive that only a single company did it: ASML. Components for the machines that do this fill four 747 airplanes and are sourced from specific companies all over the world. Operating the machines at scale requires an incredible depth of experience4. Given the flavour of the topic, you have probably already guessed the geopolitical implications. Some of the components of the EUV machines do come from the United States. Then, there is the relationship between the US government and the government of the Netherlands. As a result of those discussions and where we are presently, EUV machines are not being sent to China. The Nvidia case In August 2022, the US took a further step to limit China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions through further restrictions on the export of very specific semiconductors5: Nvidia will be restricted from selling the A100 graphics processing unit into China, Hong Kong and Russia Nvidia will also be restricted from selling its forthcoming H100 series of graphics chips into these same markets users of the A100 include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu—the companies that provide some of China’s largest cloud computing infrastructure Nvidia is the most visible company with respect to these types of chips, and as of this writing it had the largest market cap amongst the semiconductor companies. It would not surprise us if other firms that have chips of similar types of capabilities could be named in the future. Conclusion: Can China ‘go it alone’? We might take a step back at this point and think, wait, China has massive resources. Why don’t they just make their own chips? We don’t discount the fact that China absolutely could make its own chips, but it would be more a question of how long it would take and how advanced those chips could be. The EUV process was something that took both massive investment and about 20 years. ASML is able to manufacture the machines that it does and support companies like TSMC operating at scale because they have the benefit of learning from all the mistakes along the way. China can certainly make efforts along the path, but simply spending money is not going to lead to an effective EUV process that can manufacture the most cutting-edge chips at scale—the key being ‘at scale without a high defect rate.’ During the four years ended 2024, China is slated to complete 31 major semiconductor factors. By 2025, 40% of the world’s capacity to produce chips with 28-nanometre nodes is expected to be in China6. This tells us that China is making big investments away from the absolute cutting edge—and we have to remember that the world does need those chips as well. It will be very difficult for any country to fully take in all aspects of the semiconductor supply chain, but we are seeing notable efforts to that end in 2022 that will likely continue. Sources 1 Source: Yang, Zeyi. “Inside the software that will become the next battle front in US-China chip war.” MIT Technology Review. 18 August 2022 2 Source: Wikipedia Apple 3 Source: Thompson, Clive. “Inside the Most Complicated Machine on the Planet.” MIT Technology Review. Volume 124, Number 6, November/December 2021 4 Source: Thompson, November/December 2021 5 Source: Lin, Liza & Dan Strumpf. “Latest U.S. Chip Curbs Deliver Setback to China’s AI Ambitions.” Wall Street Journal. 1 September 2022 6 Source: Strumpf, Dan & Liza Lin. “China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.” Wall Street Journal. 24 July 2022
NASDAQ:SOX
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Endgame for central banks far from doneThis week the UK economy posted its highest inflation reading in 41 years rising 11.1% year on year (yoy) in October. The recent jump is largely the result of the uprating of the household energy price cap in October. Core inflation moved sideways at 6.5% yoy. We expect this to represent the peak for UK inflation. As the base effects of high energy prices begin to factor in, headline inflation in the UK is likely to fall. At the same time, the ongoing recession is likely to strip away the underlying price pressures. This has been evident in lacklustre consumer demand alongside waning housing market activity. UK Government claws back its credibility with the Autumn Statement Meanwhile the UK Government’s fiscal statement released this week1, confirmed significant fiscal austerity with spending cuts and widening of the tax base amounting to around 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after five years, although its mainly backloaded. The energy price guarantee will now have its cap for average household dual tariff annual bill lifted from £2500 to £3000 from April 2023 and remain in place for a further 12 moths. This is less generous than the original plan to cap bills at £2500 for two years. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) analysis suggests that the measures announced in the Autumn statement reduce the depth and length of the recession this year and next but leave the economy on a similar growth trajectory over the medium term. We expect real GDP to contract by 1.3% next year followed by growth of 2% in 2024. With this is mind, we expect the Bank of England (BOE) to pause its tightening cycle once rates get to 3.5% in December followed by 50Bps of cuts in H2 2023. Eurozone to endure a short recession Owing to the external supply shock, Eurozone has faced a similar inflation narrative as the UK. In October Eurozone inflation reached 10.6% yoy. We expect inflation to remain high in the next few months, however starting early next year, the annual rates should decline aided by the base effects from the surge in energy prices in 2022. Owing to which we expect European Central Bank to continue to tighten monetary policy until Q1 2023. On the positive side, while Eurozone will endure a recession in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, we expect the recession to be less deep than previously expected owing to the less dire gas situation. This was evident in the November ZEW survey, which showed expectations gauge for the economy in the six months ahead improve significantly to -38.7 in November from -59.2 in October. This remains in line with our view that in six months’ time the Eurozone economy should be on its way out of a recession. Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers singing from the same hymn book Fed officials backed expectations they will moderate interest-rate increases to 50 basis points next month, while stressing the need to keep hiking into 2023. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% to curb inflation. He also warned of further financial stress ahead. Bullard’s comments came a day after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Fed Governor Waller (one of the more hawkish Fed officials) emphasized that while rate hikes will likely slow to 50bp in December, the ultimate destination or “cruising altitude” will depend on labour market and inflation data. Waller echoed Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s concerns about labour costs pushing up service sector prices which in our view remains the key upside risk to inflation even as core goods prices have slowed. Fears are mounting that relentless rates increases will hit economic growth, with a critical segment of the Treasury yield curve at the most steeply inverted in four decades, historically such an inversion has tied in with a US recession. Maintaining a value bias within equities Amidst the challenging backdrop for global equities, we have observed the value factor outperforming the growth factor by 17.3%2 in 2022. Across global markets, European equities are trading at the deepest discount (32%) from price to earnings (p/e) ratio to their 15-year average owing to fears of the energy crisis being detrimental to the economy. The recent 3Q 2022 earnings season provided evidence that European earnings have remained stubbornly resilient despite the broader macro turmoil. A deeper dive into the sector level suggest that energy, transport, utilities and healthcare have seen some of the biggest increases to their Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates in 2022. The WisdomTree Europe Equity Income Index outperformed the MSCI Europe Index in 2022. The performance attribution highlighted below illustrates that the higher exposure to value sectors such as materials, financials, healthcare, industrials, and energy contributed to the outperformance.
FRED:T5YIE
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
LTC/USDT Ascending TriangleLTC/USDT Binance 4h Create ascending triangle chart pattern . What Is an Ascending Triangle? An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside. Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since price will typically break out in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming. KEY TAKEAWAYS The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows. Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically break out of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle, although this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy. A long trade is taken if the price breaks above the top of the pattern. A short trade is taken if the price breaks below the lower trendline. A stop loss is typically placed just outside the pattern on the opposite side from the breakout. A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point. What Does the Ascending Triangle Tell You? An ascending triangle is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, meaning that the pattern is significant if it occurs within an uptrend or downtrend. Once the breakout from the triangle occurs, traders tend to aggressively buy or sell the asset depending on which direction the price broke out.
Long
by BabarLaghari
2