Are you extremely bullish? SNAP will have its first earnings report this week.
For those of you who are extremely bullish about SNAP, perhaps this potential bearish Bat will interest you.
This is an Aggressive C trading scenario in which you buy point C and expect the price to reach point D (complete the pattern)
Obviously earnings are risky and as you can see this setup requires a wide stop loss - Make sure it fits your analysis AND your risk management rules if you think about trading it.
Also check out my latest newsletter with more trading ideas. #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter
Earningsanalysis
Amazon in the green, deserves earnings exposure.GREAT LONG-TERM TECHNICAL PICTURE, SOME RECENT WEAKNESS
- Long term uptrend took us to historical high on October 6, 2016
- Gentle uptrend over the past 6 months with a breakout late Sept.
- Some short term weakness since the top, but still in breakout mode
SOLID, PRICEY FUNDAMENTALS
- Continues to impress the investment community
- 87.5% of consensus has a buy recommendation
- Consensus target price $913/Share (+11.6%)
- Justified by impressive long term EPS growth (+48.5%)
- Improving profitability (ROE 13.64%)
- Expensive stock (P/E 203.89x and P/BV 28.8x)
EXCITING EARNINGS PUBLICATION HISTORY: VOLATILE
- Over the past 13 quarters since mid-2013
- Measured the 5-day performance before and into earnings
- Average stock performance during earnings week = +2.60%
- Min -9.94% Max +20.00%
TRADING STRATEGY: USE OPTIONS FOR EXPOSURE
- Sell Nov 18'16 $750 put = +$9.33
- Buy Nov 18'16 $850 call = -$19.00
- Total cost = $9.67 (1.18%)
- Best case: Continuation of breakout ==> Make money on both legs
- Worst case: Stock falls post earnings and you become long a great story 8% below the current price.
APPLE: EARNINGS PREVIEW - LOW BAR; 1.38EPS & REVENUE $42.34BNApple earnings to be released after market today
Expectations:
1. 1.39EPS and $42.31bn Revenue
- I personally have been an Apple bull for some time - I believe the bar for apple has been set low, with EPS 25% lower than last year and Revenue target also 15% lower than last year - I think this is achievable as Iphone SE sales will be included in the income statement for the first time this quarter which should help beat the low 42.34bn target.
Risks:
1. Obviously, if Apple misses these expectations i see downside to $89-90 immediately happening - nonetheless I think this opens up a valuable buying opp and I will be buying any 89-90 (or lower) lows, once the earnings hit/ miss flows are over as i believe apple is very cheap on a multiple basis some 10x.
Trading Strategy:
1. On an earnings beat I think because AAPL price has been depressed for so long (30% for 6m+), APPL will see significant topside e.g. to $111 so you should BUY AAPL at market and hold past the 101 breakout for 110tp.
2. Equally, if AAPL misses, we should clear existing risk at $95 and reenter APPL at the MISS bottom which should be $89, or perhaps less.
- I like owning Apple as it is one of the least leveraged companies, with over 250bn in cash & marketable securities (highly liquid) and generates 40-60bn dollars in bottom line profit, with 200bn revenue - thus it is one of the most profitable companies. With this cash, Apple in the future (under new leadership) can regain its prowess and make new highs e.g. 140-160 within the next 12-18m - before if they actually invest in M/A or some heavy R/D - poor leadership by Tim Cook is to blame for APPL's stagnant performance imo - they should have purchased Yahoo to compete with Google ad rev, Twitter to compete with FB and Netflix to grow their Apple TV business - all of which would have worked due to Apples massive worldwide brand and i believe such acquisitions can be made in the future thus I value owning Apple.
Any questions let me know.