Stock Market Logic Series #11If you are not adding the pre-and-after-hours of trading on your chart, you don't actually see the full picture of your trading analysis.
A lot of times, the market makers will push the price on the pre/after-hours times on a light volume, and will define the true low or high of the day, where you could have gotten inside with a much better price and stop placement, so when the trading hours starts, you don't feel lost that you don't have a close risk point to put your stop at.
Also, in those outside-hours, you can clearly see a much more sensible picture where the trendlines are much more clear and it is clear what the price is doing.
Also, I don't even talk about when EARNINGS are happening... and there is a high chance for gap to happen in one direction or the other.
After a gap happens, if you only look on the trading hours, you have only the information of the first 5 min of the day so you have some estimation of what could be the high or low of the day, but looking at the pre-market you could see what are the possible true high or low of the day, which is completely different.
Also, after a gap happens, your indicators are "wrong", since they miss information.
As you go into a higher frame this becomes less important, but still... some crazy huge moves start in the pre/after-hours and the price just never comes back, it just flies to the moon. So why not position yourself at a better price with better stop placement?
The logic behind it, is that if BIG money wants a stock badly... he will buy it whenever it is possible and available before the other BIG money will snatch it from it...
Look how clear price action looks in this chart:
Earningsplay
AVGO LOOKING BULLISH DEC 12 2024AVGO is looking very good to go long at cmp. If you do understand the risk then you can go ahead and trade. If you don't understand the risk of a breakout then you should stay out of it.
Do not trade options at all
I am long here at current price and expectation is a green candle.
$AI earnings play with 4hr chart analysis NYSE:AI has been in a downtrend since the middle of June '23. Over the last 3 weeks we have seen it breakout of the down trend with a massive bull flag. If you look at the longer time frames you'll see bull flags on the 1hr, 4hr, D, and W. It has clearly respected the channel, bouncing off resistance and support levels. Although earnings can mitigate all technical analysis I believe we have solid upside toward that $48- $50 dollar price range. We can easily range trade most of Monday with earnings looming over head. If we do, it will potentially complete yet another Bull Flag (outlined with the circle on support line) and break toward the upside again for a gap fill towards the PT I laid out. Again, these are just my thoughts and by no means financial advice.
Zscaler Earnings BREAKOUT Inbound? 67% UpsideEarnings Monday: Zscaler - NASDAQ:ZS 💻
A huge name within the cybersecurity space, this growth beast is reporting earnings on Monday and has beaten earning projections over 24x in a row! They clearly know how to play the game that is Wall Street. Will the streak continue?
-Cup with handle forming as we speak. $265 is the BO area. 📏$445 - 67% Upside
-Bull Flag breakout with successful retest.📏$300
-H5 Indicator is Green
-Williams Consolidation Box is thriving
-Launching off AVP Shelf
The sector is red hot with MEH quarters from the Cybersecurity leaders in NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:PANW so if Zscaler can come in and knock some socks off then they will fly to $300 faster than you can say "What is a Zscaler?"
NFA #CyberSecurity
NVIDIA $NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $148.75 - $165.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $138.00 - $148.75
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $118.25 - $138.00
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
NASDAQ:NVDA reports earnings today, these are the areas that I will look for significant price movement at. The market is anticipating around an 8.5% move, roughly an $11.50 move in either direction, based on ATM option prices, or an 11%-12% move, roughly $16.50 move in either direction, based on volatility calculations.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Selling Opportunity setup -NVDAIn general me and my brother, we are long on NVDA, but since we noticed multiple red flags, we believe that in the short term there are more odds in favor of a correction than a continuation. We take the upcoming earnings as a trading event and we access the risks versus the potential upside return.
Our trading system gave us a signal for a long entry on the open of 19 November 2024.
We will now show you the red flags:
#1 Pattern similarity
Feels like we traded this pattern before, see the current pattern of Nvidia VERSUS an old pattern of the SPY:
You can clearly see, that there was a correction and a long sideway action, then the price did a NEW HIGH on a small upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.
#2 Not the right volume pattern
You would expect that when the price is rising and makes a new local highs, the volume will increase on the upside, but there is a rise on shrinking volume. Also most of the relative large volume is on the red bars down on the selling side.
Let us do the following thought experiment, if a small edge fund wants to book profit on NVDA which I am sure such an edge fund exists since we are at all new time highs, they would put sell orders so a big edge fund will fill them and they will book a profit. This should be manifested as a large spike in volume, especially when the stock reached a new all-time high twice. But we did not see any spike in volume!
This means as Jesse Livermore liked to put it, the stock is not acting right ! We wanted to see Nvidia making a new high on large volume and push forward to $180 as analysts forecast, but it didn't.
We suspect that the rising in price, is a retail activity being allowed by the puppet master, so the puppet master could sell out Nvidia as high as he can. Hence he is the Master, and the public is the puppet. They are being played to believe that Nvidia will get to $180 right now.
Somehow we feel it's a red flag, that NO VOLUME is entering the market on a rising price. This COULD happen in a case where all the market and public are so bullish on Nvidia that everyone just lifted up all their sell limit orders to $160 plus, so this explains the non existance of volume. However, the odds are not in favour of this behavior since it is not normal human behavior of profit taking.
#3 No shakeout of the public
Previously the market shaked out all the non believers, but now, they just let the stock price chip its way up with higher highs and higher lows to reach $150 but not break it? ... No stop loss hunting to get liquidity from the market? looks suspicious.
#4 Options Chain Large Size on the long side (calls)
At first we wanted to buy options to the long side, but since we saw we were less likely to profit from it since IV (Implied volatility) is 100%+ it made the options prices too expensive, and no room for a reasonable profit. The day after earnings, the IV will drop dramatically and we saw in our indicator that it is a losing bet UNLESS it will actually reach $180 after earnings is released and we are skeptical about it.
See the options volume leaders:
You can clearly see that Nvidia is a leader of sold call options above $150 (open interest).
I don't know if you read the options book, but statistically most options end up worthless...
This is how the market makers make their money...
and it is profitable... to collapse the price of the stock... by selling hardly the stock... so all those options will end up worthless...
Because it is PROFITABLE to make them worthless, we somehow find it hard to believe they will let all those options become at the money by a price jump to $180 right now as analysts say it expects to go. Because this means they will lose lots of money on those sold OUT OF THE MONEY options.
There are substantially more amounts of Calls than Puts. (1.61 ratio).
The volume of options is crazy, this is serious money.
The options in the interesting prices ($150 for example) are 4 times larger calls than puts.
There could be a possibility that if the market sentiment of Nvidia is so bullish that they can't sell the stock down, they will have no choice but to edge themselves, and buy the stock itself which will ultimately drive the price of Nvidia up. We estimate this low in likelihood, given recent other earnings that pushed the stock prices down when the earnings are released after hours.
So what can you expect next?
You can expect this for sure:
If the post-earning movement will be to the upside, your portfolio of other stocks (the market) will not gain the same amount of return.
If the post-earning movement will be to the downside, since all the indexes will get hurt (due to high weight of NVIDIA), the whole market will get HURT, so NVIDIA loss will be reflected also in other stocks in your portfolio.
THE SELLING SETUP is to wait for NVIDIA to crush on earnings so it will crush the market, and then it is the happiest day for DAY TRADING ! to the short side...
Since, the odds for short on the post-earning day, are very high, and it is like a present from the market, since you can prepare yourself to it by waiting for the money to be on the floor, so you just pick it up.
Ahead of $NYSE:ANF EarningsThere is an unfinished Bullish flag that formed in April and earnings may be the spark needed to propel the price to the $210 target.
NYSE:ANF may be breaking out of a wedge pattern, with the price gapping up and outside of the wedge today.
Earnings are reported on Tuesday ahead of the market open.
My plan is to open a position IF the stock remain above the wedge during Monday's trading.
GOOGLE: Where are they going after earnings? Let's talk about itWHERE WILL GOOGLE GO AFTER THEY REPORT EARNINGS ON TUESDAY?!
NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL
In this video, we will review 3 key items that give us the best probability of predicting where they will go.
1⃣ See if it meets my "High Five Setup" trade strategy
2⃣ Why it's BUY according to my Valuation Metric Tool (6/6 score) I WANT A DIP!
3⃣ Look aHEAD to find out 👇
Video analysis 4/5. Stay tuned!🔔
Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂
Is this MAG7 name finally going to play catchup to its siblings? Drop a comment below.
Not financial advice.
$BABA Long Ahead Of EarningsNYSE:BABA will have earnings soon and I think it will execute a breakout towards the indicated targets.
I would consider purchasing the 110 Calls with an expiration date of 2025-2-21, for a premium of approximately $3.30. Good time to buy call options!
(Credit for contract idea @TopgOptions)
Palantir will move after earnings so hold tight ! As long as Palantir remains within the upward channel, it’s still in play!
There’s an imbalance guiding the price, preventing it from dropping. We’ve seen the price attempt to go up twice already, so as long as Palantir stays within the channel and respects the imbalance, I’m quite confident it will make a third attempt to break the high.
On the other hand...
We have the earnings report coming up Monday pre-market, so whatever happens at the open, we’ll know which direction the price will take based on the report’s results.
Keep a close eye on this!
Best regards.
Nvidia So close to earnings report ! here is my analysis... In this chart, I haven't moved anything at all since my previous analysis of Nvidia. The price is making its natural movement just as we’ve been predicting.
As you can see, the last candle closed by bouncing off my order block and following the pattern of my forecast arrow.(yellow dotted arrow) Based on the price behavior, we can predict that as it gets closer to November 20 — the earnings report date — it will simply be accumulating.
Nvidia's last earnings reports have been phenomenal, and I don’t doubt that this report will be a trigger for the price to make a decision.
But for now, we’ll only see the price in a range until a few days before the report, when we’ll see those high-volume candles that will drive the price in a single direction.
Which direction? The one the report indicates.
Best regards!
A BIG WIN for GOOGLE Congrats 2 those who followed this analysis
A BIG WIN for GOOGLE and For You !
I knew that the "Stacked Channel" was the key and that Google would make a decision sooner or later. If we look closely, the price tried to rise several times. However, the key this channel gave us was from October 7th, with that bearish volume candle. Although it was coming down strongly, it didn’t manage to break my stacked channel. This is a very clear signal from the price, telling us: I'm still strong and still in the bullish game.
one more detail to conclude is that the price is signaling with wicks that there’s a lot of buying pressure, and it’s not yet for a bear market.
Google's only hope was the earnings report, and with an excellent report and very solid numbers, we won big on this analysis!
Congratulations if you followed this analysis and entered before the report. As I had mentioned several weeks ago, I’ve always been "Bullish" on Google, and it didn’t disappoint me, either technically or fundamentally. Google remains STRONG !
Thank you for supporting my channel & Congrats to you!
Best regards
Is Palantir in a Danger Zone? We will see after the report... Palantir is about to announce its quarterly report.
As we analyzed in the last report, the price reached its highest point after several years, but after reaching this liquidity zone, it had a pullback as we announced before.
However, Palantir is showing strength in this area, and we ended on the last candle where it will attempt again to surpass this liquidity zone with strongly.
Will it succeed?
I believe Palantir has the volume to continue moving a bit higher, but at this point is entering an area where the upward momentum is slowing significantly. On one hand, we’re seeing a double-top forming, and the candle hasn’t fully formed yet. We need to wait and see if the next candle shows liquidity. If so, we should be cautious about the wick length, as that could signal trouble for Palantir.
so with the earnings report approaching, there is a lot of uncertainty, which may make it difficult for the price to break this liquidity zone.
We should stay alert this November 4th. Palantir has excellent fundamentals, but its recent reports have barely exceeded analysts' expectations. If this report misses even by a small margin, I think we could see a significant drop due to the stock being heavily inflated.
Here are Palantir's latest results:
Nov 02, 2023
2023 (Q3)
Analysts = 0.06 / Reported = 0.07 (BEAT)
Feb 05, 2024
2023 (Q4)
0.08 / 0.08
May 06, 2024
2024 (Q1)
0.08 / 0.08
Aug 05, 2024
2024 (Q2)
0.08 / 0.09
Nov 04, 2024
2024 (Q3)
0.09 / (Mon, Nov 4)
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
Best regards!
Google / Waiting for the earnings reportGoogle refuses to break out of the 'stacked channel,' that channel where the candles are tightly packed side by side. It’s a bit frustrating that the price isn’t making any move or decision, but all we can do now is wait for the big earnings report day for the price to decide its direction.
Stay tuned on Tuesday, the 29th, after the market close!
Best Regards
NVIDIA Waiting for the big day !!!! Although we closed last week with a candlestick pattern called an 'Inside Candle,' the following candle was green, but it didn’t exceed the last high (see slanted yellow arrow).
Nvidia is stronger than ever, but that doesn’t mean the price won’t take a pause or make a small pullback before its report; rather, the price is likely entering an accumulation phase, as everyone expects Nvidia’s upcoming quarterly report to show excellent earnings results.
So my forecast for Nvidia is that it will fluctuate between my point of interest as resistance and the yellow order block as support, but the most important moment here will be its earnings report day—that’s when the price will make a decision and direction.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE
Best regards!"
Palantir Validated a Liquidity Zone, Whats Next? If you saw my previous structural analysis, I had mentioned that Palantir was going to hit an institutional liquidity zone, and for the first time in several years, using common sense, the price was going to face rejection.
And that’s exactly what happened...
The price hit my point of interest and dropped for 3 days. However, the last candle with which we closed the week was green and had enough volume.
Why is this? If we can see 2 candles before the close, we can detect a trap that created a long wick downward, preventing the price from falling further. That’s the detail we're seeing before the week’s close—the last candle was bullish. We also can’t ignore that Palantir is only about 2 weeks away from its earnings report.
So, I don’t think the price will make a decisive move just yet, and even if it falls further, it would likely be around 38.50. However, the earnings strategy that traders are waiting for, where Palantir accumulates and begins to rise, is very close. So, we need to be very alert as we approach its earnings report on November 4th.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Google Still Bullish but nothing to see yet till Earnings ReportGoogle is clinging to this stagnant channel (yellow color), but the question is:
Could this be an accumulation before their earnings report?
We are one week away from Google's earnings report, and I have a feeling that the price will simply continue to trade within the same range until a few days before the report. Let's say on Friday or Monday, we may see a strong and sudden move. This is due to the "insiders," those privileged individuals within the company who hold positions and know what the price movement will be on the day of the report based on information they can access before the expected date.
We just need to keep in mind that we are still in a congested sideways channel, and this channel may expand as the days leading up to the report approach.
There's really not much to see with Google at the moment.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Significant Move Expected for Walgreens Boots AllianceToday, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is highly volatile with an IVRank of 102.6, indicating elevated implied volatility.
The expected move is ±11.78% in the near term, showing potential for significant price swings.
Skew across expiries suggests a stronger preference for calls, as evidenced by the CALL skew of 36.5%, particularly notable for the 11/15 expiry where the IVx is 102.7%.
Despite a slight IVx decline across some expiries, the volatility remains high, signaling traders are bracing for large earnings-driven moves.