Neckline break on Inverse H&S. Huge Short Interest & Big ER 1/30Company Swinging to a first time ever Profit. At the inflection point in SAAS industry and has a HUGE client that has been delayed all year but expected to close this month. Should be announced at E/R 1/30. Next qtr Revenue/Earnings will Skyrocket. Was $8 Stock last year, and left out of 2017 Rally so has a lot of pent up expansion to do.
Earningsplay
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS APLENTY (PLUS THAT LITTLE SHUT-DOWN)Earnings season is in full swing, with a bevvy of announcements:
NFLX: announces on Monday after market close, with a rank of 79 and a background of 44.
VZ: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 80/background 25.
PG: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 86/background 17.
GE: Wednesday, before market open -- rank 100/background 39.
CAT: Thursday, before market open -- rank 84/background 30.
CELG: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 36.
UNP: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 30.
INTC: Thursday, after market close -- rank 97/background 31.
SBUX: Thursday, after market close -- rank 90/background 26.
ABBV: Friday, before market open -- rank 78/background 26.
At the moment, none of these precisely meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; background >50), but NFLX is fairly close and may frisk up during the regular session. Preliminarily, the Jan 26th (5 days 'til expiry) 205/240 is paying 4.66 at the door with break evens wide of the expected. A defined risk setup with the same strikes -- the 200/205/240/245 iron condor pays 1.72, with a max loss of 3.28 and break evens of 203.28 and 241.72 -- basically right at the expected move on both sides.
On the exchange-traded funds front, the top three funds ranked by implied volatility rank or percentile are: FXI (75/22), XLB (79/16), and XLU (86/17). As with earnings, these don't meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; back ground >35), but it's always worth knowing what is potentially on the move or might set up for a play given the right conditions.
With volatility products, I'm basically hand-sitting here (there was no weekly expiry to take advantage of last week). I added a few spreads on that pop and don't want to go overboard in the event that there is further market unrest in connection with the government shut-down. Although the VXST/VIX ratio has trundled down to below 1.00, it still remains fairly high at .924 and VVIX is still >100 (101.59). Instead, I'm looking to scratch out the most at-risk spreads I have on (VXX 25.5/28.5's, generally) if I get an opportunity to do so, since that uptick got me in at better strikes ... .
Earning play pt 2IBM has gapped up since yesterdays open. Looking at prior earning reports the stock does provide us with the volatility we need to profit off this earning. The RVI is backing this idea with the breakout in the trend. However, the RSI is showing this stock could potentially be overbought and a short-term sell off could occur. Also, the 50 MA is providing the support for the stock. Potentially, a short and long hedge could be played here.
PLAB Inverted head and shouldersEarnings beat by 33 or .02 released this morning, Inverted head and shoulders on daily within larger symmetrical triangle on weekly. measure rule implies a 2.91 or 38.7% increase to PT $12.3.
If initial target is reached, symmetrical triangle will break out very bullishly (far away from apex; measuring rule for this implies a $19.84 gain or 165%!
Earnings playThe Coppock curve has been broadening in the last few weeks - this could be showing a potential swing trade. Also, the stock has a 50 MA resistance which could be a defining moment if the earnings report is a beat. Furthermore, the stock has not really shown any chart pattern in the last few months, but the volume has been decreasing ever since the stock jumped. So, I have decided to hedge this trade.
Apple long term buy?I remember buying AAPL at 119.00 and I sold off my shares near 140-150. Another opportunity has risen. AAPL has broken out of a head and shoulders pattern. Also, the 50 MA is providing support and the coppock curve has a lot more room to move positive so this could be a chance to get back in. (If the stock does fall then it will probably fall into the top of the head and then rebound). AAPL recently released the iPhone X so since that's so recent there is not much room for its sales and profit to be counted in today's earnings report - but maybe in Q4.
So, if the stock rises I may cancel my take profit and go long-term. But, if it falls as I previously said I may buy for a medium-term swing trade.
Good entry point prior ER ?Inverse H&S which should be completed prior ER. Then test ATH and breakthrough ?
ASX:ASL Long IndicationP/E Over 24
P/B 1.11
Last yearly report, net debt was wiped by well over 100m leaving only 216m left. Debt may not be completely wiped, but a hint at dividends returning could be possible. Operating profit returned positive after two consecutive years negative. If net profit after tax exceeds 70m and debt is decreased by 50m+... This will be fantastic. The share price will exceed $3.
A stock so fundamentally strong with good earnings - this may soar.
Earnings should be strong as the price of gold has not diminished, iron ore has also returned over $60/tonne.
I have an order in for 1300 shares at $2.16 strike. I feel it is early enough to bet on earnings without getting in high and late after the pre-earnings hype.
Earnings on the 23rd.
If earnings look anything like last year... wowzers.
Which one will you trade? Bearish pattern or the bullish trend? NFLX earnings- 2 technical signals:
1) Weekly Bearish Crab Pattern
2) Bounce from weekly MA line (bullish sign)
Which one will you trade today?
DAL: Removing earnings risk while keeping upside exposure.This post takes over from the previous one (see below), as we propose to take full profits ahead of earnings publication on July 13.
The logic is to entirely remove any risk related to earnings disappointment, while keeping full upside exposure.
The cost of this strategy will be < 2% (to be put in perspective with the 22.5% we have achieved so far on the long stock position).
BUY DAL 21July17 $56 CALLS at $0.96/Share (indicative, as per last close).
RISK REWARD
If the stock flies, you make money on the call and can optionally convert back into your stock position.
If the stock trades down, your hedging strategy would have worked and you might be able to sell OTM puts to offset the call premium.
The worst-case scenario is if the stock remains flat: You would have lost your position and your premium.
$SPCB is ready for some real action! Great ER$SPCB is ready for some real action! Great ER
First Quarter 2017 Financial Highlights As Compared to First Quarter 2016
Revenue of $8.3 million compared to $5.9 million, an increase of 42%
Gross Margin of 36.5% compared to 14.7%, an increase of 150%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 39.2% compared to 17.7%
EBITDA loss totaled ($0.76 million) compared to ($0.95) million
Non-GAAP Net Loss of ($0.9 million) compared to ($1.2 million)
Non-GAAP EPS of $(0.07) compared to ($0.08)
R&D operating expenses of $1.7 million compared to $1.2 million
finance.yahoo.com
IV Ranklooking at implied volatility in a percent format that will help you find implied volatility crush situations after earnings releases. you would sell an ATM straddle, strangle, butterfly, or condor in hopes that the next trading day after the release the IV would have a huge drop off.
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Sky View Trading
Option Alpha
NOMDAnywhere in the blue square is a long for me. Earnings have moved this thing past long-time resistance.
At important resistanceAs you can see drawn we are at an important resistance level. I believe a pull back to $44 or further is warranted after a drastic run up on price and high PE. RSI Showed quite overbought and after hitting these levels the prior two times we saw a quick decline. This is one stock I'm short of.
Are you extremely bullish? SNAP will have its first earnings report this week.
For those of you who are extremely bullish about SNAP, perhaps this potential bearish Bat will interest you.
This is an Aggressive C trading scenario in which you buy point C and expect the price to reach point D (complete the pattern)
Obviously earnings are risky and as you can see this setup requires a wide stop loss - Make sure it fits your analysis AND your risk management rules if you think about trading it.
Also check out my latest newsletter with more trading ideas. #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter
DAL: Buy on good earningsFAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT
DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has found a temporary bottom and that the short-term picture looks positive.
SUPPORTIVE FUNDAMENTALS
In addition to the improving technical picture, the news flow from the industry has been supportive, as airlines have been publishing ever improving yield/occupancy numbers. As a confirmation, the DAL earnings have just come out and the stock is indicated up some 3% pre-market on the news.
COMPELLING RISK-REWARD
Strategy: Plain vanilla BUY at the market
Target: $50/share then $52/share
Stop-loss: $44/share
Minimum R/R: 1.72x
Alternatively sell a put at the stop-loss ($44) to finance a slightly OTM call.
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Buying Opportunity-On April 28, 2016 Company had disappointing earnings.
Estimate: 0.97
Earnings: 0.89
Total Decrease -0.08 (-8.25%)
-Stock recovered nicely with the RSI indicator following the stocks trend
-April 27, 2017 is the next earnings report for DPZ
Estimate: 1.16
Earnings: ???
The stock is starting to sell off with rumours of lower than projected earnings. I'm projecting the stock to continue to sell off to continue to around the $164-$160 level.
-Great opportunity to buy at a discounted price after earnings are reported.
omc - possible earnings squeezeI will be looking to play another earnings squeeze on omc market open tuesday, earnings report pre market. earnings squeeze example below from apog which i traded last week very similar setup
Run up to 43, dash down to 42.2 then run back up after earningsHey let's see if this plays out. I am very happy I analyzed this because LONGS could get trapped here.
Earnings are 4/25/17 before market open.
Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.SUFFERING LIKE ALL US RETAILERS
Signet is a US mid cap with a leading position in mid-market jewelry retail. It has most recently been impacted negatively by the dull holiday season, and has generally paid the price of the weak US retail environment.
EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE?
The shares have been suffering, and are consequently trading at inexpensive multiples (discount to market and to its own long term valuation). Furthermore, management has been reshuffling the business and lowering expectations for next quarters. Fundamentally, the company continues to have an interesting growth profile on both the top and bottom line. The consensus of analysts has a BUY recommendation with a 41% target upside.
TECHNICALLY BOTTOMING OUT?
With quite high short interest (12.4% of free float, or >8 days of trading), any marginal good news could take the shares significantly higher. Furthermore, while the mid/long term technical picture still looks quite weak, it seems the stock has been trying to bottom out on the daily chart.
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHARES?
Up levels: 77.18 / 80.00 / 84.25 / 84.75 / 86.00 /87.20
Down levels: 70.00 / 67.50
Target: 87.20 (+16.71%)
Stop-loss 1: 70.00 (-6.3%)
Stop-loss 2: 67.50 (-9.65%)
Reward-Risk: 2.65x
Strategy: Buy the shares IN HALF SIZE ahead of the earnings release on March 9.
VNDA Descending Triangle Pattern. Short (and Long) Opportunity.Simple probability set up. Triangle downtrend started in 11/2016 and VNDA has only been through one full harmonic trend (wave) ever since. Second wave downward move imminent with RSI confirmation @ 35 and bearish $13 target.
However, aggressive long entry for quick profit ($15 bullish target) especially with upcoming earnings. Upon $15 target, (expected RSI >50) short for mid-term trend follow.
Quick Long Target: $15
First Short Target: $13
Second Short Target: $11.50
Total trade should complete by/in April.
ABBV earnings playABBV has been down-trending within channel. My prediction is for stock to either remain in channel or move below. Drug manufacturers facing uncertainty, IMO due to probability of Clinton Presidency. Low risk option trade. I am Long Dec02 57.5p / Short Nov18 55.5p. Max loss is my .46 debit. Potential profit up to $1.5.
