PLTR pre-earnings play LONGPLTR has earnings on February 5 while on the 120 minute chart, the price action is that of
a rising wedge with price compressing between a rising support trendline and a falling
resistance trendline the extension of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern of
November. PLTR fell today and is near and above support. In a long trade, I see the target
as 18 ( at the resistance trendline) with a narrow stop loss just under the support trendline.
This makes for a possible 6% profit with a very good reward-to-risk ratio. A call option
for the 2/16 expiration striking $17 is also under immediate consideration.
Earningsplay
JBL (Long) - an outperforming value-playFundamentals
The market is obviously overbought (still expecting a pullback), which could potentially give space to the stock to consolidate and form a cup-and-handle formation
Fundamentally, the company is sound - it has seen a decrease in demand, reflected in the decrease of revenue. However, efficiency gains meant that profit has gone up regardless, hence the price rise.
The earning are currently pricing another fall in revenue (yet, the price is still rising), hence a potential beat could serve as a nice boost to the share price.
Why am I interested in a firm with declining revenue? Because it has a lot of things going - the firm is expanding into various sectors (including healthcare, semiconductor equipment, and AI-driven data centers), which gives it a diversified customer base + it has signed a massive $2.2bn agreement with BYD , giving it an entry into the EV market
Cheap - P/E ratio of 23, despite the rise in price (based on Willliam O'Neill - the biggest winners of his careers had a starting P/E between 20-40)
Only problem is a pretty high level of debt
Technicals
The usual - accumulated base , currently on the verge of breaking the upper resistance
Another way to look at it is a broken bullish pennant
The most likely scenario I see is a consolidation along with the market and then breaking either close to the earnings or on earnings
The bottom indicator shows a recent outperformance compared to S&P500
Stochastics has been in the upper range for a while - again, showing that it will probably pull back for a little while
Trade
There are plenty way to go about it - I will likely choose to wait until the stock price consolidates around the resistance and wait for a breakout
If the breakout happens now, I would once again advise to enter the trade, but with the caveat of giving the trade more space for a potential pullback back to the support
Of course, if the stock starts receding from here, the trade is off; same goes for a failed break out
Main caveat is the earnings - if the stock disappoints, then once again, the trade wouldn't be advisable
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TTD Coiling Before EarningsTTD has been looking really good lately. Been tightening in a wedge since mid 2023. Currently sitting above the major EMAs and working on an inside candle today and showing decent relative strength after the weak CPI print earlier this morning. Earnings in 2 days, and have posted 5 consecutive beats.
PSN Engineering Consultants /Design LONGParsons reports in 2 days. This multinational engineering firm thrives on infrastructure projects
like highways and bridges, airport runways and other engineering issues such as cybersecurity
walware attacks, election interference, DOS wars, dams, irrigation projects, 100-year storm
assessments and FEMA related work. I am very familiar with this multinational firm that
someday will be consulting on the rebuilt of Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. It is a stable
company with a bright and prosperous future.
The chart shows investors reacting to the impending earnings report and taking positions.
Volatility was extreme last Thursday one week before earnings. I will be adding to my long
position in PSN. This is a slow and steady wins the race type of stock best suited to long term
investors or traders with options strategies.
Still room to run to 420 (at least)META target by end of Feb 2024 is 420.
3 most likely paths to target:
1) 1pt solid black arrow = earnings pop to 405-413 and then continue to 420 by 2/7/2024
2) 2pt (thick) solid black arrow = earnings pop and then run to 420 by 2/21 (more conservative)
3) 2pt (thick) grey arrow = drop to 373-378 after earnings which would get bought up fast and then run to 420 by end of Feb. (would be great opportunity to enter long).
Not playing this for earnings but it should be a good indicator for what market will do mid-term. My expectation is SPY will continue higher to 500+, and the earnings today 2/1 will be a catalyst for this.
I think at least 2 of 3 of the big tech earnings will be bullish todaym maybe all 3:
META to 420
AMZN to 164
AAPL to 198
Waste Management WM uptrending since prior earningsWM is impending earnings in the next trading day. It is a demonstration that there is money to
be made in the efficient collection of garbage and recyclables On the daily chart, since the
earnings beat, it has trended up through a high volume area breakout and a breakout across
series of VWAP lines and bands anchored in the intermediate past. The volumes have been
consistent. The RSI indicator shows both the lower and higher time frame lines above the 50
level since those earnings. I see this as an add to one of my investment portfolios as it is a
relatively slow mover with dividends. On traders with long duration swing trades will pay
attention to it. An options call trade in the lead up into earnings will mature on February 16th
This is a blue chip stock; it does not get headlines it just works hard month in and month out.
In my opinion, nothing is wrong with that.
ABNB: price structure The macro structure is bullish from Dec'22 low with important price zones at: 198-217, 227-260 and 282-322 as inter-mediate and ultimate resistance areas for suggested impulsive structure.
The gap-up set-up on earnings today is in the cards for price to move towards 198-217 area. But if price decides to consolidate more138-128 area should be an important support zone.
If price goes bellow 128 suggested price structure needs to be revised.
Thank you for your attention!
ABNB (Long) - end of the choppiness? Looking at my past track record, I am becoming somewhat of a fanless guru hahah - I better knock on some wood; otherwise the market goods give me a losing streak like I have never seen. However, it is nice to see how these age-old rules coupled with some patience work. Anyways, enough of bragging and lets get to the trade
Fundamentals
The market is disgustingly overbought , so this trade is on only if the NASDAQ:ABNB earnings deliver
Overall, right now, I would only purchase stocks that have already posted blockbuster earnings, otherwise I am in expectations of a pullback that should last at least a couple of weeks (c. 2-4)
Considering how ridiculous are some valuations getting in the market, ABNB is actually priced quiet reasonably, almost conservatively
The company is pretty much printing money with a net profit margin of 58% (up from 20% a year ago) ,which is, honestly, incredible, hence the P/E of 'only' 18
The earnings have grown by 253% yoy, and the revenue is steadily marching higher
The firm is not bending under a pile of debt with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.2 - so, no interest burdens
Technicals
Given that Airbnb is a famous and popular brand, it is almost shocking how badly the stock has been performing since the IPO, having moved basically nowhere
However, the chart has been putting in the work to build us a nicer a picture (an accumulating base) and we are nearing something that could potentially be a marvellous breakout, which is not incidentally coinciding with upcoming earnings
Throughout this whole period, the stock has been gradually being accumulated with almost no major distribution periods (check the indicator)
Indicators like MACD and Stochastics showing strong momentum
Trade
This part is a bit tricky - if the earnings disappoint, then the trade is probably off because the setup goes to sh**; if the stock shows strong earnings than we can probably expect a major pop, which means we will have to be chasing
But if you backtest strong earnings , you can see that it is worth chasing even a major earnings pop - the price tends to carry on performing strongly (e.g. NASDAQ:ARM , NYSE:PLTR etc. - from some of the recent examples)
'Meeting estimates' results that would barely move the stock is probably good, but I would wait a bit for more stock price action
If the stock pops, but there is no follow through - is usually a bad signal and should be watched out for
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The NWS double top is looking even more bearish than yesterday.This chart looks even more bearish than it did a few days ago. Not only does it have a double top pattern and a bearish divergence, but it now has a candle wick that has dropped below the bottom trend line. Certainly not all, but many times, this can be the 'nail in the coffin' that tips off traders that price is about to break out of the wedge pattern to the downside.
At this point, I'm extremely bearish, but will be running a tight stop 1.5% above the upper trend line.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
NBIX Biotechnology / Pharmaceutical Pre-earnings LONGNeurocrine Biosciences, a mid cap pharmaceutical firm is up for earnings on February 7th.
Investor and trader interest seems to be moderately increasing in the past week. The combined
MACD / RSI indicator is bullish. This looks good for a longtrade to be taken in the premarket
before 7:45 AM as earnings report at 8:00
POWL an earnings pop will it continue or dropPOWL destroyed analysts' estimates may more than it did the previous quarter.
Of special note, the mass index indicator rose above the threshold but has not yet triggered
a reversal signal. The next trading session may be a drop or a rest until next week.
Call options striking 100 for 15DTE did 300%. I contemplate taking put options striking $110
with the same expiration. Risky for sure but maybe highly rewarding.
SMA- earnings play- a beat with a drop for a pop LONGSMA reported today with about a 2% drop - while traders responded with a 8% drop. Everybody
especially auto mechanics love their stuff. So were they looking for more? It is hard to say.
Idea is on the chart. I am looking for a recovery in a reversion to the mean. It looks like
it's underway. For those familiar with volume profile analysis and trading the best buy short
was upon the drop out of the high volume area ( lower zagged blue line at 9:45 AM EST) and
the best exit was the transient cross over and above the Hull 35 moving average at 12:15.
This would have been a monster trade of about 600% if the strike 280 expiring 2/16 was taken
about 9:45 AM and closed at 12:!5 PM; the price of about $150 for the single contract would
have yielded $1300 and netted $1150 for those 2.5 hours for an hourly rate of over $400.
Enough said about the short, this idea is about the backside. The stock shares trade is what is
is. The options trade in my opinion only is a call contract striking $ 270 just under the 0.5 fib
retracement is currently priced at about $530. If price gets above $270 or even gets over the
$280 fib level line in the next week, the return again would be 300-600%. I am taking this call
options trade, I will enter on a pivot low of the day on the share price chart. I'll set a stop loss
of 20% meaning about $100 is at risk. 3X the premium is about $ 1600 so the reward to risk
is 16. Managing with TradingViews handy alerts on the stock chart for moving average
inflections and cross-overs as well as MACD line and signal intersections should take about
one hour of combined time in a week. I consider the potential gain to be
excellent for the anticipated expense of time.
CMG - it might be expensive but the value is there LONGCMG on the weekly chart has been uptrending for a year after being rangebound sideways for a
year. It has seen a volume spike and corresponding price action with the current earnings beat
Price rose 60% in the past year and 16% YTD. This is not linear and nor is it parabolic.
The MACD supports the bullish momentum observation in the price action while the RS indicator
shows good strength in both shorter and longer time frames. This is a blue chip megacap for
sure. While it is not technology like the MAg7, the food business is lucrative. the CEO in the
earnings call announced plans to expand to 7000 stores nationally. This is ambitious. Those who
are ambitious investors or traders and are well funded could consider adding some shares
or even a few options of CMG. I am going with a few options OTM at $3000 six months out.
I believe that I will be well rewarded for the risk taken especially given the expansion plans
and the historical track record here.
PLUG - flagging at rest for continuation LONGPLUG on the 120 minute chart is resting on its trend up. Earnings are about 4 weeks ahead.
The uptrend has been solid. Two bull flag patterns are noted along the way. They follow
pops on the Relative Trend Index indicator also showing bullish buying volatility on the
Relative Volatility indicator. I see the rest ( consolidation) as a good point to add into my
ongoing long position for PLUG which recently got an upgrade and higher target by more than
one analyst. For a basic and simple trade, take the 3rd upper VWAP band at 6.35 as the target
the mean VWAP at 4 as the stop loss for a basic3:! R:r trade. For something better zoom into
a 15-30 minute time frame reset the anchored VWAP and fine tune.
NWS likely to miss earnings expectation on Feb 7th.Media companies have been getting the pants kicked off them lately, and NWS - News Corporation is at the top of an all time high on the charts, which may provide an incredible opportunity to capture a very sharp decline in the price.
Earnings will be released on Feb 7th (next week), and with price sitting at/near an all time high, if earnings are missed, it could present a very rare opportunity for short positions/short plays.
Good luck, and always use a stop.
$AAPL Long SwingNASDAQ:AAPL just recently had earnings and released the new VR-headset, Apple Vision Pro.
I'm looking at swinging calls for NASDAQ:AAPL next week because the Jeanius Algo Suite (Indicator/Screener) gave me multiple buy confluences:
Fell through 2 untested lows (~$180.17), grabbing liquidity
Partially filled a Fair Value Gap
Tested an uptrend line formed on the monthly timeframe
In a long term and short term structural uptrend
The indicator shows "Combo" signals every time this combination of signals happened in the past. It also automatically painted the lines/zones
ENPH Enphase Energy Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ENPH before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ENPH Enphase Energy prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 102usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $7.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMD: Targeting HOP Level at $208.051: Holding 3.618 as SupportLast week during earnings, INTC reversed at the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 after trading just below the highly contested 50 dollar strike. Now AMD is doing something similar, except its highly contested strike is below it at $170-$175. I find it a little bit more likely that AMD goes for a move up towards the 200 level which would align it with the Bearish HOP level where then one may consider switching to a Bearish bias.
I will be playing it via synthetic longs and vertical spreads
This is an updated Post after realizing that AMD just filled a gap visible on the daily, I also felt like reposting it on the daily timeframe because after hours activity does not really matter for the options position.
QCOM: Bearish Hammer at Resistance on the Weekly TimeframeThere is a Bearish Hammer at weekly Resistance on QCOM with the RSI pushing back down from its second test of the overbought level. This seems like Bearish RSI BAMM that could lead to QCOM coming back into the support range around $120. As a result I'v decided to open Bear Call Spread spreads on QCOM to offset my Bullish AMD Call Spread.
AMD: Targeting HOP Level at $208.051Last week during earnings, INTC reversed at the PCZ of a Bearish 5-0 after trading just below the highly contested 50 dollar strike. Now AMD is doing something similar except it's highly contested stike is below it at $175. I find it a little bit more likely that AMD goes for a move up towards the 200 level which would align it with the Bearish HOP level where then one may consider switching to a Bearish bias.
I will be playing it via options spreads, in a way that gives some credit in order to reduce risks either being a Vertical or a Butterfly call spread though I may increase my risks a bit and go synthetic long.