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[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
$ANF Retail’s Comeback Kid or Just Another Mall Cliché🚀💵 Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): Retail’s Comeback Kid or Just Another Mall Cliché? 🌟👕 1/ 📉 ANF’s stock just took a nosedive! Despite a 15%–20% drop in price, the company raised its sales growth target to 15%. Overreaction? Opportunity? Let’s break it down. 🔍 2/ SWOT Strengths 🚀✨ Teen Spirit: ANF and Hollister remain iconic brands among teens and young adults. 🧢👕 Omnichannel Power: 45% of sales come from e-commerce. The future of retail? ANF is already there. 🌐💻 Fashion-Forward: They’re quick to adapt to fashion trends, keeping their brand relevant. 🔄👗 Weaknesses ⚠️🚫 Pricey Vibes: Premium pricing could push away budget-conscious shoppers. 💸 Operational Challenges: Higher costs from labor laws and environmental regulations threaten margins. 🏭📉 Opportunities 🌍🌱 Global Takeover: Emerging markets are calling, and ANF could answer big. 🌏 Tech Savvy: AI-led personalization? It’s a retail revolution waiting to happen. 🤖🛍️ Rebranding Potential: They could refresh their image and re-engage lapsed customers. 🔥🆕 Threats ⛔️ Crowded Mall: ANF faces fierce competition from legacy and DTC brands. 🏬👚 Economic Sensitivity: A shaky economy might shrink consumer spending on non-essentials. 📉💰 Supply Chain Drama: Past disruptions remain a potential Achilles’ heel. ⚙️🚚 3/ Recent Market News 📊 ANF stock dropped 15%–20% on Jan 13, 2025, despite raising sales growth targets. Investor overreaction? Perhaps. Competing retail names like Lululemon saw gains, signaling sector divergence. 4/ Valuation Talk 🔢📈 Closer to Fair Value? ANF was overvalued before the dip; now, it might be a bargain. Metrics Check: Investors should compare P/E and EV/EBITDA to sector averages. 5/ Why It Matters: ANF’s digital evolution, global ambitions, and trend-savvy branding make this dip intriguing for long-term investors. Short-term volatility? Buckle up. 🎢📅 6/ Tell us in the comments 🔽 What’s your take on ANF at this point? 1️⃣ Buy 🟢 2️⃣ Hold 🟡 3️⃣ Sell 🔴 4️⃣ Wait for More Data 🔵
NYSE:ANFLong
by DCAChampion
1
Can We Get +EV from EV? With stocks like FCX, sometimes the answer isn’t just about gold—it’s about finding the copper that holds everything together. While everyone scrambles for the gold nuggets in the mainstream Electric Vehicle (EV) market, you might be missing opportunities further upstream in the feeder streams. These are the overlooked areas that quietly power the whole operation. As I work on my 2025 guide to researching and finding hidden gems in this very market, I stumbled upon a curious situation that’s sometimes overlooked when researching a stock: a well-timed opportunity to combine deeper research with the possibility of an early position. What is that opportunity, you ask? Well, it’s all about timing and understanding the mechanics of dividends, coupled with an upcoming earnings catalyst. The Hidden Value in Copper Let’s face it—copper wire isn’t exactly the sexiest investment out there. But sometimes, the dressed-down stock has a greater long-term value precisely because it spans multiple industries. Copper isn’t just critical for EV motors and renewable energy—it’s a foundation material for infrastructure, electronics, and more. Enter Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX). This copper powerhouse caught my attention for two key reasons: 1. A dividend payout date approaching on Jan 15, offering a 1.6% yield. 2. An earnings report set for Jan 23, creating the potential for amplified movement shortly after the dividend window. Now, before you jump in, remember: this isn’t about chasing dividends or speculative hype. Instead, it’s an opportunity to observe, research, and learn. Here’s why FCX is a fascinating case study and what to watch for. Why FCX Is a Great Study 1. **Dividend Catalyst (Jan 15) - Watching the stock’s behavior leading up to and after the ex-dividend date could give insights into how investors value the dividend. - Track whether the stock trades with increased volume or volatility as traders position themselves to collect the dividend. 2. **Earnings Catalyst (Jan 23) - With earnings just a week after the ex-dividend date, you have a rare overlap of events that could amplify price movement. - Depending on sentiment, the stock could rebound from the ex-dividend price drop—or face additional pressure if earnings or guidance disappoint. 3. **Copper Exposure - FCX is already on our radar for its ties to EVs, renewable energy, and infrastructure projects. - Broader copper demand, influenced by economic sentiment or supply chain news, could add another layer of movement to this stock. What to Watch 1. Pre-Dividend Price Action (Now through Jan 14) - Look for increased buying as traders position for the dividend. - Monitor volume trends and whether FCX breaks key technical levels. - Keep an eye on market sentiment and copper-related news. 2. Ex-Dividend Price Adjustment (Jan 15) - Observe if the stock drops by exactly the dividend amount ($0.15) or if external factors cause a different adjustment. - Watch for recovery post-drop—does buying interest resume, or does the stock stall? 3. Earnings Anticipation (Jan 16–23) - Monitor implied volatility (IV) for options, as IV typically rises before earnings. - Consider how copper prices or macroeconomic trends (like China reopening or U.S. infrastructure spending) might affect sentiment heading into earnings. 4. Post-Earnings Reaction (Jan 23 and Beyond) - Listen to the earnings call for insights on copper demand, production costs, and forward contracts. - Note whether the stock aligns with broader copper and EV trends or diverges based on the results. Possible Outcomes 1. Bullish Scenario - Dividend buying drives interest, and earnings provide a strong catalyst for growth. - The stock rebounds quickly after the ex-dividend date and continues upward momentum post-earnings. 2. Bearish Scenario - Dividend adjustment leads to further downside pressure, and earnings fail to meet expectations. - The stock underperforms compared to copper peers. 3. Neutral Scenario - Dividend adjustment happens as expected, and earnings provide no surprises. - FCX trades sideways, maintaining a range-bound pattern. How to Track and Document 1. **Price & Volume:** - Record closing prices from now through Jan 23. - Note volume spikes and their timing relative to events. 2. **Options Activity:** - Monitor the options chain for changes in implied volatility as earnings approach. - Look for unusual activity around certain strikes or expirations. 3. **Copper Prices:** - Track global copper prices, as they could influence sentiment for FCX. 4. **News Flow:** - Stay updated on copper demand, EV adoption, and infrastructure-related headlines. A Practical Exercise in +EV Thinking FCX presents a unique opportunity to explore the layered dynamics of dividends, earnings, and macroeconomic trends. Even if you don’t take a position, tracking these events can sharpen your understanding of how catalysts play out in real time. And, of course, this study aligns perfectly with the philosophy behind my upcoming eBook and print guide: **“Adding to Your Nest with EV in 2025 – A guide for researching the hidden gems in the EV market sector of trading.”** So, can we get +EV from EV? The answer lies upstream, in the copper that holds everything together. -Bob Cavin 3
NYSE:FCX
by bcavin
Easyjet ready to fly?Easyjet records better financial statements, looking at the report is possible to read that LSE:EZJ flew about 5% increase in seats when compared with last year. The revenue increased by 14% this mainly because of the increase of 8% in capacity. Looking over the financial indicator it's noticeable an increase in revenue and the difference compared to 13 week moving average. The price breakout for the second time above the top of ascending triangle following for a cross over the 200ema. The yellow resistance is the strongest one that still needs to be broken. ADX is already above DMI- and being at 19,49 can show some strength confirming the DMI+. EFI barely dropped below zero when the price failed to cross the EMA changing direction above zero rapidly.
LSE:EZJLong
by AFCapital21
PALANTIR ON AN INCREDIBLE BULLRUN ! BUT... But be careful—this does not justify the price at all. Although Palantir has very solid numbers in its balance sheet, this does not justify a valuation at such an overvalued price could be very dangerous ! We must consider that markets in general are bullish, and the results of the latest report recently showed that it remains a very solid company in terms of sales. However, its earnings numbers are average—they meet analysts’ expectations, but by a very narrow margin. Historically, this has been the case in past reports as well. Now, let’s get back to the technical analysis of Palantir. After its report, it managed to break through that institutional zone that marked its peak 3 years ago (2021). After bouncing off the imbalance for a second time, Palantir showed a lot of strength and reached new highs. From here on, we just need to wait for a pullback soon to start analyzing a possible support level. Right now, Palantir is in no man’s land, which makes it a bit difficult to predict its next move. The only thing we can do here is to follow its movement candle by candle, staying alert to wicks and immediate zones where it might pull back. Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE!"
PLong
by RocketMike111
GOOGL Strong Move Post-Earnings. My AnalysisHey, guys. Not going to go into too much detail on the description here. Just wanted to get my thoughts out there on NASDAQ:GOOGL . Certainly seems to have a strong long term trend here. As always, in long term trends, there could be various counter trend moves so always be prepared in that regard. Hopefully this offers some more insight for you as you think about NASDAQ:GOOGL from an investment perspective, or even a trading perspective. Even if you are looking for short term trades in GOOGL, I find it helpful to know how your trade might fit in to the longer term trend (whether to the downside or upside). Hope you enjoy the review, and best of luck out there!
NYSE:MODGLong
by redykhouse
Nasdaq - Nasdaq will maintain the balance of 20,000?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel If the drawn support range is maintained, we can see the index continue to climb up to the previous ATH But the valid break of the drawn support range will pave the way for the correction of the index to the bottom of the ascending channel Within the defined demand zone, one can look for index buy positions with appropriate risk-reward
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
1
Palantir Validated a Liquidity Zone, Whats Next? If you saw my previous structural analysis, I had mentioned that Palantir was going to hit an institutional liquidity zone, and for the first time in several years, using common sense, the price was going to face rejection. And that’s exactly what happened... The price hit my point of interest and dropped for 3 days. However, the last candle with which we closed the week was green and had enough volume. Why is this? If we can see 2 candles before the close, we can detect a trap that created a long wick downward, preventing the price from falling further. That’s the detail we're seeing before the week’s close—the last candle was bullish. We also can’t ignore that Palantir is only about 2 weeks away from its earnings report. So, I don’t think the price will make a decisive move just yet, and even if it falls further, it would likely be around 38.50. However, the earnings strategy that traders are waiting for, where Palantir accumulates and begins to rise, is very close. So, we need to be very alert as we approach its earnings report on November 4th. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
P
by RocketMike111
Google Still Bullish but nothing to see yet till Earnings ReportGoogle is clinging to this stagnant channel (yellow color), but the question is: Could this be an accumulation before their earnings report? We are one week away from Google's earnings report, and I have a feeling that the price will simply continue to trade within the same range until a few days before the report. Let's say on Friday or Monday, we may see a strong and sudden move. This is due to the "insiders," those privileged individuals within the company who hold positions and know what the price movement will be on the day of the report based on information they can access before the expected date. We just need to keep in mind that we are still in a congested sideways channel, and this channel may expand as the days leading up to the report approach. There's really not much to see with Google at the moment. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by RocketMike111
2
Significant Move Expected for Walgreens Boots AllianceToday, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is highly volatile with an IVRank of 102.6, indicating elevated implied volatility. The expected move is ±11.78% in the near term, showing potential for significant price swings. Skew across expiries suggests a stronger preference for calls, as evidenced by the CALL skew of 36.5%, particularly notable for the 11/15 expiry where the IVx is 102.7%. Despite a slight IVx decline across some expiries, the volatility remains high, signaling traders are bracing for large earnings-driven moves.
NASDAQ:WBALong
by TanukiTrade
$NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024NYSE:NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $ DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $ SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $ Weekly: Bearish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish NYSE:NKE price is now approaching the 88.00 - 89.00 level that was a previous support level (week of Apr01'24). Bearish momentum from Jun27'24 earnings broke this level. We are now revisiting it from a bullish rally that was spawned by the CEO retiring and a new one being appointed. The support, the break, and the retest are three visits to this level, which is why I'm now viewing it as a potential entry for trades. Keep an eye out for the Oct01 earnings call. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, nike, nikestock, nke, nkestock, NYSE:NKE , nikeceo, nikeceoretires, nikeearnings, niketrend, nikelong, nikeshort, niketrade, nkeceo, newnikeceo, oldnikeceo, nikestockprice, niketradeidea, nikeearningsrelease, nikeearningstrade,
NYSE:NKE
by TonyAiello
1
BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here? - More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives. - As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
HKEX:1211Long
by FytaLO
1
NVIDIA BUY ZONES ACTIVE ?As posted before after the earnings report we’ve seen the stock drop from 127 to 105 after a blowout report. Here’s my current idea of a scenario 1. NVDA Settles around the price of $111 & $100 before US DATA Thursday and Friday 2. NVDA buy opportunities towards $125-$140 or above 3. Stocks can rise on a worst than expected US Data, propelling the index market to all time highs as well as gold. This current correction phase is healthy, and needed. 4. NVDA can form a double top resistance at $138-$141 sending the stock into more selling power. Consequently to a price of $90-$50. Waiting for a bounce between this area. Until new points of possible AI is found and chips are being sold at a higher volume. This can be the EOY stock price. Overall whoever wins presidency will have a significant impact on AI markets. This is a prediction. Good luck to all!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by R2CTrading
PDD Holdings: A Strategic Pivot or a Tempestuous Trial?As PDD Holdings, the e-commerce titan behind Pinduoduo and Temu, confronts a landscape fraught with intensifying competition, economic challenges, and evolving consumer preferences, the question of its future trajectory becomes increasingly pressing. Can the company successfully navigate these turbulent waters, or will it succumb to the tempestuous forces at play? PDD Holdings, once a beacon of e-commerce growth in China, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's recent second-quarter earnings report, marked by a revenue shortfall and cautious outlook, has sent shockwaves through the market. PDD's strategic pivot, prioritizing long-term value over short-term profitability, while commendable, may face significant challenges in the near term. As PDD grapples with domestic pressures, the company's international expansion strategy, spearheaded by Temu, presents both opportunities and risks. The potential for global growth is undeniable, but the competitive landscape is fiercely contested, with established players like Amazon and Shein vying for market share. The question of whether PDD can successfully navigate these challenges is a complex one. On the one hand, the company possesses a strong financial foundation, with a robust cash position that can provide a buffer during difficult times. Additionally, PDD's commitment to user acquisition beyond China could be a critical driver of future growth. On the other hand, the intensifying competition within the e-commerce sector, coupled with the economic uncertainties in China, pose significant headwinds. PDD's ability to adapt and innovate in such a rapidly evolving environment will be crucial to its long-term success. Investors are closely watching PDD's every move, with opinions on the company's future sharply divided. Some view the current low valuation as an attractive entry point, particularly considering Temu's potential for international expansion. Others, however, remain cautious, citing the ongoing challenges in China, management's tempered outlook, and the possibility of declining profitability. Ultimately, the fate of PDD Holdings hinges on its ability to successfully execute its strategic vision, adapt to changing market conditions, and deliver sustainable value to its investors. The road ahead is likely to be fraught with challenges, but with careful navigation and strategic decision-making, PDD may emerge as a resilient and thriving e-commerce powerhouse.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by signalmastermind