Significant Move Expected for Walgreens Boots AllianceToday, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is highly volatile with an IVRank of 102.6, indicating elevated implied volatility.
The expected move is ±11.78% in the near term, showing potential for significant price swings.
Skew across expiries suggests a stronger preference for calls, as evidenced by the CALL skew of 36.5%, particularly notable for the 11/15 expiry where the IVx is 102.7%.
Despite a slight IVx decline across some expiries, the volatility remains high, signaling traders are bracing for large earnings-driven moves.
Earningsreport
Weak Technical Patterns Ahead of EarningsFor now, NYSE:GS the largest of the Financial Services companies left, is struggling a bit. Trading activity in this stock is well below its average at this time. No pre-earnings run patterns have developed yet. There is some rotation recently, with lower money flow.
$NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024NYSE:NKE NIKE | NIKE CEO RETIRES & PRICE RALLIES 9% - Sep 21st, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
NYSE:NKE price is now approaching the 88.00 - 89.00 level that was a previous support level (week of Apr01'24). Bearish momentum from Jun27'24 earnings broke this level. We are now revisiting it from a bullish rally that was spawned by the CEO retiring and a new one being appointed. The support, the break, and the retest are three visits to this level, which is why I'm now viewing it as a potential entry for trades. Keep an eye out for the Oct01 earnings call.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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NVIDIA BUY ZONES ACTIVE ?As posted before after the earnings report we’ve seen the stock drop from 127 to 105 after a blowout report. Here’s my current idea of a scenario
1. NVDA Settles around the price of $111 & $100 before US DATA Thursday and Friday
2. NVDA buy opportunities towards
$125-$140 or above
3. Stocks can rise on a worst than expected US Data, propelling the index market to all time highs as well as gold. This current correction phase is healthy, and needed.
4. NVDA can form a double top resistance at $138-$141 sending the stock into more selling power. Consequently to a price of $90-$50. Waiting for a bounce between this area.
Until new points of possible AI is found and chips are being sold at a higher volume. This can be the EOY stock price. Overall whoever wins presidency will have a significant impact on AI markets.
This is a prediction. Good luck to all!
US30 Buy ZoneStep one
* Market creates a sell structure @ 41169
Step two
* Market breaks through support @ 40953
Step Three
* Market breaks towards low of 40750 and quickly recovers in price action. Rally?
Step 4
*Economic data sends the Dow jones back to the resistance zones in step 1 & 2. Recovers to rally to an all time high of 41,500 or 42,000 and quickly sells.
NVDA Earnings Results I believe in the next 24 hours we will see a $50 billion stock buyback to $137+ and then a major correction immediately after. I think the selling pressure will be a falling knife. Leading us back into the $100-$70 range. Shaking out retail investors. This is just a prediction. Good luck!!
PDD Holdings: A Strategic Pivot or a Tempestuous Trial?As PDD Holdings, the e-commerce titan behind Pinduoduo and Temu, confronts a landscape fraught with intensifying competition, economic challenges, and evolving consumer preferences, the question of its future trajectory becomes increasingly pressing. Can the company successfully navigate these turbulent waters, or will it succumb to the tempestuous forces at play?
PDD Holdings, once a beacon of e-commerce growth in China, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's recent second-quarter earnings report, marked by a revenue shortfall and cautious outlook, has sent shockwaves through the market. PDD's strategic pivot, prioritizing long-term value over short-term profitability, while commendable, may face significant challenges in the near term.
As PDD grapples with domestic pressures, the company's international expansion strategy, spearheaded by Temu, presents both opportunities and risks. The potential for global growth is undeniable, but the competitive landscape is fiercely contested, with established players like Amazon and Shein vying for market share.
The question of whether PDD can successfully navigate these challenges is a complex one. On the one hand, the company possesses a strong financial foundation, with a robust cash position that can provide a buffer during difficult times. Additionally, PDD's commitment to user acquisition beyond China could be a critical driver of future growth.
On the other hand, the intensifying competition within the e-commerce sector, coupled with the economic uncertainties in China, pose significant headwinds. PDD's ability to adapt and innovate in such a rapidly evolving environment will be crucial to its long-term success.
Investors are closely watching PDD's every move, with opinions on the company's future sharply divided. Some view the current low valuation as an attractive entry point, particularly considering Temu's potential for international expansion. Others, however, remain cautious, citing the ongoing challenges in China, management's tempered outlook, and the possibility of declining profitability.
Ultimately, the fate of PDD Holdings hinges on its ability to successfully execute its strategic vision, adapt to changing market conditions, and deliver sustainable value to its investors. The road ahead is likely to be fraught with challenges, but with careful navigation and strategic decision-making, PDD may emerge as a resilient and thriving e-commerce powerhouse.
Rapid Accumulation Pattern: COHRNYSE:COHR rebounded upward from a strong support level due to Rapid Accumulation by Derivative Developers. The company had a good earnings report on August 15th. This is NOT an all-time high. A shift to a platform or sideways trend would be ideal to reset for the next swing-style run. Chaikin Osc is overextended and floating as oscillators tend to do. Sideways trends pattern that out rather quickly most of the time.
CSCO Layoffs Positive for the StockNASDAQ:CSCO gapped up on its earnings report even though the company has failed to reinvent and failed to change to HyperAutomation in its IT departments quickly enough.
News of layoffs is considered a positive action on the part of the officers of the corporation who are responsible first and foremost to INVESTORS and cutting costs so that the company can slowly regain revenues and earnings for dividends for INVESTORS.
Delaying layoffs, which may be kind and thoughtful for employees, is a negative for INVESTORS, namely the giant Buy-Side Institutions, because it extends and worsens the financial condition of the company.
As more and more companies buy robots/robotics and AI technology, these will reduce payroll expenses and help to control internal business inflation, which is caused mostly by rising payroll expenses with declining productivity from the workforce of the company.
This is always misunderstood by retail groups who believe layoffs are a bad thing for the "economy." The world of commerce and the financial markets is not a fair or kind place.
$IBM Support Levels HoldingNYSE:IBM did not have a great earnings report for the 1st Quarter 2024, but 2nd quarter improved. The stock has one of the better charts in the Dow 30 components. It has held up better than most of the Dow components, except for those stocks that are in buyback mode. It has been tapering off its buybacks for 2 quarters. So the gains holding above the support lows are not from buybacks. There are accumulation patterns and pro trader activity in the mix. One to watch for swing trading potential.
Maximize Gains with Options for $UBER: Option Chain Outlook The NYSE:UBER stock price had been in an uptrend until it reached around the $75 level, after which it entered a correction phase. The price is currently near a long-term upward trendline, which could act as strong support.
Volatility: The IVRank (Implied Volatility Rank) is 107.5, indicating that the current volatility is high compared to the values observed over the past year. The IVx value is 73.6, also indicating high volatility.
IVx 5-day Change: +7.8%, showing a significant increase in volatility over the past 5 days. This is common in the period leading up to earnings as investors prepare for the announcement.
Price Skew: The 27.3% skew indicates that call options are more in demand, which could suggest that investors are expecting a bullish movement post-earnings. A solid skew suggests higher demand for call options, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among investors.
IVx (46 DTE): 73.6, indicating high volatility expected over the next 46 days. Volatility is likely to remain high around the earnings report, which is favorable for selling option premiums.
Exp.mV (46 DTE): The expected move over the next 46 days is $7.6, indicating that investors are pricing significant price movement after the earnings report.
PLTR Earnings Options Analysis: Strong SupportsCurrent Price Level: NYSE:PLTR is currently trading around 23.79 USD.
Options Data:
IVRank: 95.8, indicating that the current implied volatility is at the 95.8th percentile over the past 52 weeks.
IV% 5d Change: 16%, showing a significant increase in implied volatility over the past 5 days.
Exp. move at 46 DTE: 4.6% for options expiring in 46 days.
Price Skew: 31.8%, indicating the difference between the bid and ask prices of options.
Market participants overpriced call options by 31.8% for the September expiration, indicating bullish sentiment despite the significant panic in the markets today.
Support Level: There is strong support below the 4/8 level, which is crucial for put options.
The green line represents the strike price expected by the market based on the options chain for 46 days to expiration (46 DTE), around 18 USD.
The Delta 16 PUT level is below the 4/8 Murrey Math level, indicating strong support based on the status of the current optionchain.
Options Analysis for Caterpillar Inc. ($CAT)Key Levels and Indicators:
Current Price: $316.49
IV Rank: 129.5
IV (46 DTE): 58.7%
IV Change (5 Days): +10.2%
Expected Move (46 DTE): $31.4
Price Skew: 3.1% for PUTs (almost neutral)
The market appears to anticipate that the price of NYSE:CAT will remain above this strike price ($280) by the expiration date of 46 days (DTE).
A 5-day change in IV of +10.2% indicates increasing volatility possibly due to upcoming earnings or other significant events + today crash of SP500.
An expected move of $31.4 suggests that the market predicts CAT could move within a $31.4 range from its current price over the next 46 days.
The green horizontal line at $280 represents a critical support level at MurreyMath 2/8.
Coinbase (COIN) Set to Report Q2 Result Tomorrow: What to ExpectCryptocurrency company Coinbase (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:COIN ) is set to report its Q2 earnings tomorrow after the bell. As one of the leading platforms for buying, selling, and managing cryptocurrency, Coinbase's performance is closely watched by investors and analysts alike. Here’s a detailed look at what to anticipate from the upcoming report.
Recent Performance
In the last quarter, Coinbase delivered impressive results, surpassing analysts' revenue expectations by 19.4%. The company reported revenues of $1.64 billion, marking a 112% year-on-year increase. This strong performance also saw Coinbase exceed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, signaling a solid quarter for the cryptocurrency giant. However, it's worth noting that monthly active users (MAUs) fell by 4.8% year-on-year, totaling 8 million.
Expectations for Q2
For this quarter, analysts are predicting a continuation of strong revenue growth, with an expected increase of 92.8% year-on-year to $1.36 billion. This anticipated growth reflects a reversal from the 12.4% decline experienced in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.87 per share, which would mark another solid performance for Coinbase if met.
Analysts’ Consensus
Over the past 30 days, analysts covering Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ) have largely reconfirmed their estimates, indicating a belief that the company will stay on course heading into its earnings report. However, it's important to consider that Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ) has missed Wall Street's revenue estimates twice over the last two years, adding a layer of uncertainty to the upcoming results.
Peer Performance
Examining Coinbase's peers in the consumer internet segment offers some insight into broader industry trends. Pinterest reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 20.6%, meeting analysts' expectations, while Netflix saw revenues rise by 16.8%, also aligning with consensus estimates. Despite these positive results, Netflix's stock traded down 1.5% following their earnings announcement. This mixed reaction from the market could be a sign of cautious investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment
In general, investor sentiment in the consumer internet segment has been positive, with share prices up 2.5% on average over the last month. However, Coinbase's stock price has remained unchanged during the same period. As the company heads into its earnings report, the average analyst price target for Coinbase stands at $257.8, compared to the current share price of $224.22.
Challenges Ahead: FCA Fine
A significant issue looming over Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ) is the recent fine imposed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), a U.K. financial regulator. On July 25, 2024, the FCA announced that it had fined Coinbase's U.K. unit, CB Payments Limited (CBPL), approximately $4.5 million. The fine was issued for repeatedly breaching a requirement that prevented the firm from offering services to high-risk customers.
The FCA cited a lack of due skill, care, and diligence in the design, testing, implementation, and monitoring of the controls put in place to prevent such violations. This regulatory setback could impact investor sentiment and pose a challenge for Coinbase as it navigates its compliance obligations and works to restore its reputation.
Technical Outlook
Coinbase stock ( NASDAQ:COIN ) has experienced a notable increase of 5.5% in the pre-market trading session on Wednesday. This rise in stock value reflects a strong and positive sentiment among investors as they anticipate the upcoming Q2 financial reports, which are scheduled to be released tomorrow. The excitement surrounding these reports suggests that a robust earnings performance could potentially propel the stock price of NASDAQ:COIN towards the significant resistance level of $250. Conversely, if the earnings report falls short of expectations, it could result in a decline, pushing the stock down to the support area around $202, which is notably below the recent one-month high that the stock had achieved.
In terms of technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 45. This level indicates a state of balanced momentum between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market as traders and investors await the Q2 results. It's important to note that such anticipation can sometimes lead to gaps in stock prices, reflecting the uncertainty and volatility that often accompany earnings announcements. As the market prepares for this critical information, both sides are poised to react based on the outcomes, which could significantly influence the stock's trajectory in the near future.
Conclusion
As Coinbase prepares to report its Q2 earnings, investors and analysts will be watching closely to see if the company can continue its strong performance from the previous quarter. While expectations are high, the recent FCA fine adds a layer of complexity to the company's outlook. Despite these challenges, the overall positive sentiment in the consumer internet segment and the reaffirmation of analysts' estimates suggest that Coinbase remains a key player to watch in the cryptocurrency space.
Stay tuned for the earnings report tomorrow after the bell, as it will provide crucial insights into Coinbase's performance and future prospects in a rapidly evolving market.
Very Bullish on SOFIHeavily bullish on SOFI going into earnings next week. Soft landing is all but guaranteed at this point and talks of a rate cut, maybe even 2, have been ramping up possibly up to 50 basis points. Bank stocks **should** benefit from this and hope to at least double my money on this options trade. Will be holding shares for foreseeable future and buying more if earnings come in below expectations.
Can a Water Company Grow at Tech Rates? XylemXylem's Growth in Q2: Resilient Demand Amid Asset Challenges
Xylem Inc. raised its annual profit forecast on Tuesday after posting higher-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by robust demand for its water and wastewater treatment products. The company now anticipates an adjusted profit for 2024 between $4.18 and $4.28 per share, up from its previous forecast of $4.10 to $4.25 per share. CEO Matthew Pine highlighted resilient demand in Xylem’s largest markets as a key factor in this optimistic outlook.
Furthermore, Xylem revised its annual revenue outlook upwards to $8.55 billion from about $8.50 billion. Quarterly revenue surged nearly 26% to $2.17 billion, surpassing analysts' estimates of $2.15 billion. Notably, sales from its water infrastructure unit reached $690 million, beating expectations of $655.28 million. This segment, which focuses on the transportation, treatment, and testing of water, includes a diverse range of products such as water and wastewater pumps.
On an adjusted basis, Xylem reported a profit of $1.09 per share for the quarter ending June 30, exceeding forecasts of $1.05 per share. However, a review of the 8K revealed some asset challenges. Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $815 million from $1,019 million in the prior quarter. Receivables remained relatively unchanged at $1,675 million, compared to $1,617 million previously. Inventories saw a slight increase, rising to $1,057 million from $1,018 million.
While Xylem’s revenue and profit forecasts are encouraging, the decrease in cash reserves and "stable" receivables suggest a need for careful asset management moving forward. This raises the question: Can a water company sustain growth at tech rates? With strategic acquisitions and strong market demand, Xylem shows potential, but effective management of its assets will be crucial to maintain its impressive trajectory in the water technology industry.
Topping Pattern Ahead of Earnings: AAPLNASDAQ:AAPL needs to have a great earnings report on August 1st but it has a topping formation at the moment, after huge speculation from promoting something that is not yet proven to increase sales. You can't take hope to the bank. Speculation occurred as investors assumed that AI would sell more new iPhones in droves. This earnings report will reveal reality one way or another.
There is a negative divergence between the price trend and accumulation/distribution suggesting there may have been quiet rotation against the retail speculation.
Technical Patterns of Reinvention: GENYSE:GE reported earnings yesterday and had a minor gap up to the high of the sideways range with some selling for profit toward the end of the day. This company is reinventing. Momentum Runs have developed out of Dark Pool Buy zones for swing trading since the last time it was mentioned.
Musk's Warning to Gates Backfires: Tesla's Mixed Q2 ResultsApproximately a week ago, Elon Musk cautioned Bill Gates against shorting Tesla stock, suggesting potential negative consequences. However, the situation has shifted, with Tesla's stock price experiencing a significant $20 drop following the release of its earnings report in the aftermarket.
Tesla's Q2 2024 results were a mixed bag, leaving many questions unanswered. While sales increased by 7% compared to the previous year, overall revenue from car sales declined. This news is concerning for investors who primarily view Tesla as a car manufacturer.
Additional points of interest for investors include the timeline for the release of Tesla's new range of affordable vehicles designed to compete with aggressive Chinese manufacturers, which is expected in the first half of 2025. Moreover, the company has postponed plans for increased factory productivity and the unveiling of self-driving vehicles until 2025 and October 2024, respectively.
The lack of clear communication from Elon Musk and his team regarding these developments has contributed to investor uncertainty and subsequently impacted the share price.
Key takeaways from Tesla's Q2 2024 results
Earnings per share (EPS) : $0.61, down from $0.91 in Q2 2023 but up from $0.45 in Q1 2024.
Revenue : $20.16 billion, a 5% decrease compared to the same period last year, but a 16% increase from Q1 2024's $17.38 billion.
Deliveries : 444,000 vehicles, exceeding expectations but still 5% lower than the same period last year.
Several factors have contributed to a decrease in demand for Tesla vehicles, including high-interest rates, which make financing vehicle purchases more expensive for consumers. Additionally, the impact of Tesla's aggressive price cuts from the previous year is diminishing, and competition is intensifying, particularly in the Chinese market. In the domestic market, Tesla is losing ground to competitors like General Motors and Ford.
Despite these challenges, Tesla's share price had experienced a 33% increase in the first eight days of the month, adding $209 billion to the company's valuation.
Looking ahead
The weekly chart indicates that Tesla's share price has rebounded from its April 2024 low of $140, surpassing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the falling trendline from November 2021. Buyers will aim to reclaim the September 2023 high of $278 before targeting the 2023 high of $300. Immediate support levels are at $230 (200 SMA) and $223 (falling trendline). A drop below these levels could lead to the 100 SMA at $210 becoming a potential downside target.
$T cheapest good R:R earnings play2024-07-23 at 3DTE
NYSE:T Jul 26th 16/17 Put Ratio Spread
Options Overlay indicator and Options Screener in action.
Tomorrow before open : Earnings
Max loss: $2.5
Max profit: $97
Bp.req: $200
Bearish micro, bullish macro.
I expect that even in the event of a possible fall, the 4/8 will hold the price.
If it doesn't, then the upward macro trend.
So I went for a pretty safe-looking trade, with the green rage showing the range of returns, so I will sleep well :)
PUTS = CALLS equally priced for 3DTE.
GOOG: Risk for HFT Gap on EarningsThe mighty NASDAQ:GOOG has hit the Market Saturation Phase and its advertising AI is one of the primary problems. Alphabet is losing small business advertisers in droves as prices skyrocket to advertise on Google Ads while results are dismal for the advertisers.
This run down is due to speculation that is not based on financial data. It may find support at this level, but it is vulnerable to an HFT gap down. It is never a good sign to see selling a few days ahead of an earnings report. A gap up would be based on Year over Year, not quarterly improvement.
$TFC Options visualization - Earnings at Monday After Close NYSE:TFC Earnings at Monday After Close
Hard PUT pricing skew
Interpolated DELTA16 is far below the STD1
4/8 could be act as support
08/16 at 27DTE
IVx is 35
Exp.move ±2.13
Put pricing skew: PUTs are +77%
more expensive at Exp.mv
09/20 at 62DTE
IVx is 29.5
Exp.move ±2.93
Put pricing skew: PUTs are +49%
more expensive at Exp.mv