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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar saw a significant increase during this week's trading session after successfully breaking through our resistance levels at 1.031 and 1.039 and is now resting at the previous weekly chart analysis charts identified as a resistance level of 1.051. We expect a rally towards the next key target, the Interim Inner Currency Rally, set at 1.060. However, this upward movement could lead to a temporary retracement towards the support level at 1.041 and may challenge the next significant support level at 1.024.
by TradeSelecter
Euro Rises to 1-Month High as ECB Decision NearsEuro Appreciates as ECB Decision Looms The Euro has climbed to $1.05, its highest level in over a month, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after President Trump softened his stance on universal tariffs and called for an immediate interest rate cut. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The pair is showing strong bullish momentum, having broken above the pivot level at 1.0470. Despite this, there is a chance of a short-term retest of the pivot level before the price pushes higher toward 1.0530 and 1.0605. For a bearish reversal, the price must break and sustain below 1.0437 with a 4-hour candle close. If this occurs, the next downside targets will be 1.0367 and potentially 1.0288. Trend Outlook Bullish Trend: Above 1.0469
Long
by SroshMayi
Will Trump's tariff threat be an obstacle to an ECB rate cut? Both short-term dollar weakness and the ECB’s increased inflation concerns have clearly propelled EURUSD upward. Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, asserts that eurozone inflation will stabilize as anticipated and that monetary policy will continue to be constrained in the near future. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde has issued a stark warning that the threat of tariffs is set to rise with Trump’s return to power, which could lead to significant inflation risks. EURUSD breached above the descending channel’s upper bound and approached the resistance at 1.0470. EMA21 widens the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating a possible shift to bullish momentum. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0470, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0560. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below EMA21 and the support at 1.0360, the price may reenter the descending channel.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has seen a notable increase in volatility during this week's trading session after completing our significant Outer Currency Dip at 1.020. The interim rebound reached our target of the Mean Resistance at 1.030, as outlined in last week's chart analysis. We are now anticipating a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020, with additional extension levels at Outer Currency Dips of 1.016 and 1.005, respectively.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced a significant increase during this week's trading session, surpassing our initial target of Mean Resistance at 1.034. It then encountered strong resistance at a Mean Resistance of 1.043, leading to a notable pullback that brought it down to an Outer Currency Dip of 1.025 and lower. We are now looking at the next target at Outer Currency Dip 1.020, with additional extension levels at Outer Currency Dip 1.016 and 1.005, respectively. Reaching our first target, Outer Currency Dip 1.025, will likely trigger an interim rebound toward the designated level at Mean Resistance 1.030.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has significantly declined in this week's abbreviated trading session, reaching the Outer Currency Dip level of 1.025. Consequently, the currency has rebounded robustly and is heading toward the Mean Resistance level of 1.034. Current analyses suggest that the Euro is positioned to continue its upward trajectory. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that a revitalized pullback will occur from this resistance level.
by TradeSelecter
EURGBP - Europe will pass this winter safely!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the resistance range is broken, we can witness the upward movement of this currency pair. A valid break of the drawn upward trend line will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400. Bloomberg has reported that the cessation of Russian natural gas flow to Europe via Ukraine is likely to heighten competition with Asia and drive up the cost of alternatives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday that Ukraine hopes increased gas supplies from the U.S. and other producers to Europe will make prices more acceptable. The flow of gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine stopped on Wednesday, marking the end of over five decades of this route being the primary channel for gas to the Eurozone. While this move was anticipated after months of political tension, Europe still needs to replace about 5% of its gas supply and may increasingly rely on storage levels that have now dropped below average. The European Commission noted that the suspension of gas flow via Ukraine on January 1st was a foreseen scenario, and the EU is prepared for it. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), expressed optimism that the ECB could achieve a 2% inflation rate by 2025. She stated, “We have made significant progress in reducing inflation in 2024 and hope that 2025 will be the year we reach our target as expected and planned in our strategy. However, we will continue our efforts to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% medium-term target.” Meanwhile, UBS has noted that the value of the U.S. dollar has increased, suggesting that investors can sell dollars more robustly and convert them to currencies such as the British pound or the Australian dollar. Despite the recent rise in the dollar’s value, driven by shifts in expectations around Federal Reserve policies and U.S. government actions, the bank believes the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the dollar’s value in the short term, it sees opportunities for investors to pivot toward more attractive currencies. The British pound (GBP) and Australian dollar (AUD) are among its top picks due to their potential to perform well amidst evolving global monetary conditions. Additionally, according to data from Nationwide, house prices in the UK reached near-record levels at the end of last year. This indicates that the real estate market continues to gain momentum. Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis, reaching an average of £269,426 (equivalent to $337,500). This figure is only slightly below the record high of £273,751 recorded in the summer of 2022.
Long
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current abbreviated trading week, the Eurodollar is exhibiting a narrow trading range above the Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035. Current analysis suggests that the Euro is poised to resume its upward trajectory, with anticipated targets of Mean Resistance 1.051 and a potential extension to Mean Resistance marked at 1.060. It is important to note that a pull-down movement may occur towards Mean Support at 1.039; with a possible retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035, before resuming the upside movement.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar exhibited a bearish trend during the initial part of the week; however, it subsequently demonstrated a significant recovery by retesting the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035. This renewed interim rebound is poised to drive the Eurodollar toward the Mean Resistance level of 1.051. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.035 remains plausible.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Trading Idea EUR/USD dipped 0.2% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline as it approaches the key 1.0500 level. The Euro’s recent bullish momentum is fading, with traders shifting to a cautious stance ahead of two major events: US CPI Data (Wednesday): A pivotal release ahead of the Fed's final 2024 meeting. Inflation is expected to tick up to 2.7% YoY (from 2.6%), with core CPI holding steady at 3.3%. Any signs of stalled progress could dash hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18, fueling USD volatility. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB is widely anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut. Forecasts suggest the Main Refinancing Operations Rate will be trimmed to 3.15% (from 3.4%), and the Deposit Facility Rate is expected to drop to 3.0% (from 3.25%). EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Entry Opportunity with SMC and Fibonacci Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the key zone between the 0.71 and 0.79 Fibonacci levels is shaping up as a critical area of interest. Following the creation of a fair value gap at the last high, the price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level, setting the stage for a potential trade setup. Trade Setup: Entry Point: 1.05520 (aligned with the 0.75 Fibonacci level) Stop Loss: 1.05697 (just above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for added risk protection) Take Profit: 1.04990 (targeting below the fair value gap for optimal risk-to-reward) Risk/Reward Insights: This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.98. By risking 17.7 pips to gain 53 pips, you're maximizing reward relative to risk. Disclaimer: Trading carries significant risks, and it’s essential to practice strict risk management. Always trade with a clear plan, use stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—ensure you understand the risks before making any decisions. Follow for more trading ideas, strategies, and insights to level up your trading game!
Short
by InwardTrader
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EURGBP - The weakness of the euro will end!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. In case of breaking the resistance area, we can see the supply zone and resell in that zone with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the drawn support area will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, the euro experienced a sharp decline. This drop was attributed to market reactions to the possibility of aggressive policies in areas such as trade, immigration, and finance.Past experiences have shown that such policies can significantly impact exchange rates. It is anticipated that the U.S. tariff measures expected in early 2025 will play a crucial role in shaping the direction of exchange rates. The euro, particularly due to Europe’s significant trade surplus with the U.S., is highly vulnerable to these measures. According to statistics, the U.S. trade deficit with the eurozone increased from $158 billion in 2019 to $196 billion by September 2024. This development could serve as motivation for U.S. policymakers to apply further pressure. Another factor that might weaken the euro is the poor performance of eurozone countries in meeting NATO’s defense spending targets. Out of the eight countries that remain below the 2% defense spending threshold, seven are in the eurozone. This could provide Trump’s administration with justification for adopting stricter trade measures. JP Morgan has forecasted that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its December 12 meeting. While the market assigns only a 20% probability to this reduction, JP Morgan believes that such a cut would not suffice to bolster the economy. Data indicates that the preliminary estimate for overall consumer inflation dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%, while core inflation rose from 2% to 2.3%. Villeroy, a member of the ECB, dismissed these changes as insignificant. In his speech, he stated: “We have good news; inflation is decreasing and moving toward our target. Therefore, it is likely that we can continue reducing interest rates.” He added, “We are confident in our projections and expect to achieve our inflation target, possibly in the first half of next year.” Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, in an article for The Economist, discussed how Europe’s savings can be transformed into investments, innovation, and growth. She highlighted that Europe faces numerous economic challenges and that directing savings toward productive investments is essential to stimulate growth. Lagarde emphasized the need for a strong capital markets union in Europe to better allocate financial resources and improve access to capital for innovative companies. She also stressed the importance of structural reforms to enhance the business environment and encourage entrepreneurship. She pointed to the role of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies in supporting sustainable and innovative investments and underscored the importance of cooperation among EU member states in achieving these objectives. Additionally, she called for the establishment of a stable and predictable legal and regulatory framework to boost investor confidence and drive economic growth. A recent Cluster17 survey revealed that around 54% of French citizens want President Emmanuel Macron to resign and for early presidential elections to be held in 2025. The survey also showed strong public polarization regarding the collapse of the Barnier government, highlighting the inability of political parties to unite voters. Political analyst Stéphane Fournier noted that these results increase pressure on Macron to appoint a new prime minister. The findings also reflect public dissatisfaction with the current political situation and the failure of parties to provide effective solutions to the ongoing crisis. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 73 out of 75 economists predict that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 0.25% during its December meeting. Two others anticipate a 0.5% cut. Moreover, 51 out of 67 economists expect the ECB to reduce the deposit rate to 2% or lower by the end of 2025. Notably, in a November survey, 43 out of 63 economists made the same prediction.
Short
by Ali_PSND
EURGBP - Interest rates will stay high for a long time!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the ceiling of the channel, we can see a supply zone and resell within that zone with a reward for the appropriate risk. The breaking of the drawn upward trend line will provide us with the path for the downtrend of this currency pair to the support range. According to expert analysis, President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico to the United States could have a greater negative impact on European automakers like Volkswagen and Stellantis, as well as their suppliers, than any direct tariffs on European Union goods. Should these tariffs be implemented, significant questions would arise regarding the future of global automakers’ operations in Mexico, particularly European manufacturers. Many companies have established factories in Mexico to take advantage of cheaper labor and proximity to the lucrative U.S. market. In response, some automakers may choose to relocate their production facilities to the U.S., abandoning their operations in Mexico. Bernstein analysts stated in a report to clients that Trump’s tariff threats, if enacted shortly after his inauguration in January, leave little time for automakers and suppliers to adjust to major supply chain disruptions. They wrote: “The consequences of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for U.S. manufacturers are so significant that they do not appear to be merely a bargaining tool.” Similarly, Stifel analysts noted that around 65% of the vehicles Volkswagen sells in the U.S. would lose their competitive edge if tariffs on imports from Mexico were applied. Volkswagen’s largest car plant in Mexico, located in Puebla, produced approximately 350,000 vehicles in 2023, including Jetta, Tiguan, and Taos models, all destined for the U.S. market. While automakers and suppliers are exploring various scenarios, predicting future developments remains challenging due to the uncertainty surrounding final decisions. Nick Klein, vice president of Chicago-based OEC, remarked: “Based on past experience, Trump is likely to use the tariff threat as leverage, but predicting his exact actions is difficult.” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has suggested that the European Union should engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding potential tariffs rather than immediately implementing retaliatory measures. Lagarde reiterated previous warnings about the adverse effects of a full-scale trade war, proposing that the EU could offer to purchase certain U.S. goods as a gesture of willingness to negotiate. She also stated that it is still too early to assess the impact of these tariffs, but if implemented, they might cause short-term inflationary effects. Nagel, a member of the ECB, warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could increase inflation in the Eurozone, presenting a significant risk. He pointed out that if wage growth slows, upward pressure on prices in the services sector would diminish. He also highlighted that Germany’s economy faces challenges that could lead to a recession in the final quarter of the year, with its economic performance lagging behind the Eurozone average. Philip Lane, ECB Chief Economist, emphasized that restrictive monetary policies should not be maintained for an extended period. In an interview with Les Echos, he advocated for a gradual reduction in interest rates, noting that the rapid rate hikes have curtailed housing investment and encouraged saving over spending. Lane predicted that most inflation targets will be achieved by next year unless new political or geopolitical risks arise. He stressed that monetary policy should not remain excessively restrictive and that further adjustments are needed to achieve stable inflation. Lane also forecasted a rise in consumption during 2025-2026 and called for monetary policy to address both downside and upside risks. Meanwhile, a UBS note revealed that despite stronger-than-expected inflation data in the UK and the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, market sentiment toward the British pound remains bearish. The inflation figures align with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s cautious stance, consistent with his recent call for a gradual approach to rate cuts. The BOE’s reduction of the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7 fits within this broader strategy.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Euro showing decline ahead of November CPI The euro is trending downward as the market anticipates the release of the Eurozone CPI for November this week. This decline is driven by rising uncertainty regarding the Eurozone economy, an apparent slowdown in inflation, and an increasing likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the ECB. French Central Bank Governor Villeroy de Galhau has stated that the ECB has the capability to cut rates independently of the Fed's monetary policy direction. He added that successive rate reductions are on the table as European inflation continues to ease. EURUSD declined sharply and briefly fell to 1.0330, the two-year low. EMA21 rapidly widened the gap with EMA78, showing an apparent bearish momentum. If EURUSD breaks below the descending channel’s lower bound and 1.0330, the price may fall further to the 1.0000 parity level. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches above the resistance at 1.0540 and EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0670.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: As outlined in the analysis from the previous week, the Eurodollar has maintained its pronounced downward trajectory with notable intensity. It has successfully breached the completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.050. It penetrated the subsequent Outer Currency Dip at 1.042 by completing the significant Outer Currency Dip at 1.035 during this week’s trading session. It is essential to recognize that following this vital completion, the currency is positioned to rebound toward Mean Resistance at 1.048 before resuming its downward movement.
by TradeSelecter
Eurozone PMI Contracts Amid Geopolitical TensionsThe Eurozone's PMI dropped to 48.1 in November, indicating contraction, with the services sector hit hardest. Simultaneously, the EUR/USD falls to $1.03327, nearing parity with the US dollar. This drop is further highlighted by the dollar index reaching over 107.5, its highest in two years, fueled by strong US economic data and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties. The Eurozone faces heightened vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions, contrasting the robust US economic indicators. As traders eye potential parity in the EUR/USD, it's crucial to consider geopolitical developments and economic indicators. Understanding these dynamics can aid in gauging market movements and potential trading opportunities. For those trading forex, it's important to manage risks, as leverage magnifies both profits and losses. Be informed: stay updated with economic events, and consider using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel for strategy development. Always trade with caution, as past performance is not indicative of future results.
by tastyfx
Euro slides after ECB financial stability reviewThe euro is down sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0510, down 0.80% on the day at the time of writing. Financial stability reviews seldom make the headlines, unless the message is a stark one. That was the case today as the ECB’s financial stability review warned that the eurozone could face a financial crisis due to a variety of issues. The euro has responded to the pessimistic news with sharp losses. The report noted weak growth, rising public debt and political uncertainty in the eurozone could lead to an economic downturn that would squeeze banks and hurt financial stability. The ECB also warned of the possibility of a potential bubble in stocks connected to AI, which could result in a sharp market correction. The report urged fiscal prudence in order to preserve financial system resilience in the “current uncertain macro-financial environment”. The European Central Bank meets on Dec. 12 and there are differing opinions among Governing Council members as to the timing of another rate cut. Inflation has been falling, but it the pace fast enough to warrant a rate cut at the December meeting? Some voices have been calling for a jumbo 50-basis point cut in December, while more dovish members want to wait until early next year. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, speaking after the release of the financial stability review, said it was “crystal clear” that the ECB would continue lowering rates but this had to be done in an “extremely prudent” manner. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0574 and 1.0545. Below, the support line of 1.0494 is under pressure 1.0625 and 1.0654 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EURGBP - BOE decisions will make the GBP rise!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. In case of an upward correction due to economic data this week, we can see a supply zone and resell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Reaching the demand zone of this currency pair will lead to scalp buying opportunities. The UK energy regulator has approved a £2 billion funding package to build a high-voltage “electricity superhighway” beneath the North Sea. This project, known as the “Eastern Green Link 1,” involves laying 196 kilometers of cable to transfer wind power from Scotland to northern England. The initiative is expected to supply electricity to approximately two million homes. Rachel Reeves, the UK’s finance minister, stated that the government aims to achieve broad and resilient economic growth. She also reaffirmed the Bank of England’s target of maintaining a 2% inflation rate. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, noted that inflation in the services sector remains above levels compatible with the inflation target. He stressed the need for close monitoring of this sector, as it reflects labor market developments. Bailey further mentioned that a gradual approach to easing monetary policy restrictions would help manage inflation-related risks more effectively. Meanwhile, the European Commission has warned of heightened risks in its economic outlook due to the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and protectionist trade policies. The Commission estimates Germany’s GDP growth to rise by 0.7% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 1.0%. Additionally, public debt in the Eurozone is expected to increase from 89.1% in 2024 to 90.0% by 2026. Inflation rates are projected at 2.4% for 2024, 2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026. A Bloomberg survey revealed that economists now believe Germany may face a second consecutive year of declining output. Analysts expect Germany’s GDP to shrink by 0.1% in 2024 following a 0.3% contraction in 2023.A month ago, predictions still pointed to an economic slowdown only for this year. Fabio Panetta, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that persistent weakness in domestic demand might drive inflation below 2%. He suggested that the ECB should consider shifting toward a neutral or even expansionary monetary policy. Panetta noted that the Eurozone economy remains weak, with no turning point visible in the manufacturing sector. He emphasized the need for the ECB to adopt a forward-looking approach, as excessive tightening of current monetary policies is no longer necessary. Robert Müller, another ECB official, remarked that there is no need for larger-scale measures at this time. He also hinted at the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Short
by Ali_PSND
2
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: As anticipated in last week's analysis, the Eurodollar has sustained its downward trajectory with notable intensity, successfully reaching all predefined targets: Mean Support at 1.069, Key Support at 1.062, a retest of the completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060, and the realization of the Inner Currency Dip at 1.050. While this downward movement is significant, the following primary target is the Outer Currency Dip at 1.042. It is imperative to acknowledge and initiate a rebound, which is currently taking place, guiding prices back toward the newly established Mean Resistance at 1.063 before resuming the down movement.
by TradeSelecter